Idaho Power Companys 2009 Cloud Seeding Program Summary Shaun - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Idaho Power Companys 2009 Cloud Seeding Program Summary Shaun - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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An I DACORP Company Idaho Power Companys 2009 Cloud Seeding Program Summary Shaun Parkinson, Ph.D, P.E. Engineering Leader Idaho Powers Cloud Seeding Projects Payette Upper Snake in cooperation with E. Idaho - HCRC&D ldahoPo

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Idaho Power Company’s 2009 Cloud Seeding Program Summary

Shaun Parkinson, Ph.D, P.E.

Engineering Leader

An IDACORP Company

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Idaho Power’s Cloud Seeding Projects

Payette Upper Snake

in cooperation with

  • E. Idaho - HCRC&D
  • ldahoPo

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wer Generator Non-Idaho Pow

  • Flight Lines

er Generator

Seed Rings

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Payette Project

Airborne and Ground-based Seeding

  • Seeding intended to enhance

snowpack at the higher elevations above 4500’

  • Target area ~ 938 sq. miles
  • ~ 497 mi2 above the 6000’ level
  • 10 remote ground generators

– private property – Working on SUP’s

  • Aircraft –Beach King Air C90
  • Combined approach provides

more opportunities for addressing storms.

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SLIDE 4

Payette Target Control

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Target vs. Control Cumulati\18 Preoipit,"ion 1987

  • 2002 Historical Relationship and 2003-2009 Observed

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15%A OVE EXPE TED

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33.0

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43.0 48.0 53.0

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Pooled control site cumulati•:e precipitation (in.) - Oct. 15-Apr. 15

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Payette Operations Summary

Water Year WY % Normal* % TC** Benefit Silver Iodide (grams) Hours Status Total Air Ground Air Ground

2003 93% 16 33558 23270 10288 15.4 515 start-up (Feb-April) 2004 74% 5 21485 2803 18682 11.9 930 assessment 2005 65% 7*** 27301 11122 16179 50.5 810 assessment 2006 136% 15 113173 97710 15463 48.5 768

  • perational

2007 56% 10 106082 76980 29102 51.3 1351

  • perational

2008 105% 16 61147 38740 22407 29.4 1123

  • perational

2009 107%**** 15 50274 26110 24164 17.1 1208

  • perational

* Unregulated Payette Flow calculated at Horseshoe Bend ** TC = Target Control *** DRI Trace chemistry average benefit **** Estimated July 2009 runoff

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Payette Benefit Estimate

Benefits estimate using:

  • USBR regression equation for Payette at Horseshoe Bend

– Using current 2008 conditions (near normal)

  • Precipitation increase of 10% from cloud seeding
  • Results in approximately 120 KAF of additional Apr – Jul runoff

Estimated cost of additional water ≈ $6.5 / acre-foot

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SLIDE 7

Payette Streamflow Analysis

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SLIDE 8

Payette Streamflow Analysis

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3000 2000 1000

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Water Year Averaged Estimated Flows of the Payette River@ Banks

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2010

Difference in the Annually Averaged Estimated Flows of the Payette River@ Banks

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AQ 1948- 2001 = r99(cfs) AQ 2002~2008 = 417(p fs)

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Water Years since 1948 with SF Payette o

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slide-9
SLIDE 9

Streamflow Modeling

NWS River Forecast Model

  • Additional runoff estimated using IPC’s

NWS river forecast model.

  • Model uses mean aerial temperature and

precipitation (MAT & MAP) by elevation bands

  • Two scenarios…with and without cloud

seeding

  • Without seeding – adjusted MAP down by

amounts indicated by target-control analysis (observed data includes seeding)

  • With seeding – used MAP based on
  • bserved data
  • Streamflow increase ranges from 6% to 16%

increase (Draft)

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Upper Snake Cloud Seeding Program

Water Year 2009:

  • Placed 3 remote generators to augment the manual network run by

the HCRC&D

– IPC Operated and Maintained these units

  • Provided Meteorology Support for the overall USB project.
  • Data:

– Radiometer in Ashton, Id (Temp, Rel Humidity, Liquid Water) – Rawinsonde in Wilford, ID (Wind)

slide-11
SLIDE 11
  • E. Idaho CS Program

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slide-12
SLIDE 12

Upper Snake Operations Area

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SLIDE 13

Upper Snake Operations Summary

IPC Upper Snake 3 Remote Generators Ground Generator Usage for 2008-2009

Month Total Hours Total Silver Iodide (grams) Weather Balloons (Sondes)

2008-12 82.5 1,649 2009-01 56.9 1,138 10 2009-02 42.3 846 12 2009-03 137.2 2,743 15 2009-04 51.1 1,021 5 Totals 369.9 7,398 42

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Meteorology Support

  • 24/7 project support by 3

experienced cloud seeding meteorologists

  • IPC generators are operated

remotely from Boise

  • Use public data and IPC

Radiometer, Rawinsondes and Weather Stations.

  • The meteorologist use this

weather data to determine which generators to turn on and

  • ff to seed most effectively.

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..

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SLIDE 15

‘09-’10 Objectives

  • Redesign remote generators summer 2009

– Less Maintenance – Safety – Faster and easier to deploy and recover – More cost effective – New generators will replace current units in the Payette

  • Add 7 to the Upper Snake for a total of 10 remotes

– IPC and RC&D have identified the locations.

  • Continued meteorology support

– Rawinsonde

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Upper Snake Planned ‘09-‘10 Operations

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slide-17
SLIDE 17

2010 Efforts – E Idaho

  • Fabricate 10 additional remote generators in 2010 to use during

’10-’11 season.

  • Locations to be identified – focus on continued enhancement of

existing program before moving into new areas

  • Develop sampling plan to establish current silver levels in

watershed (water, soils, plants, aquatic organisms).

– Currently planning for this in Payette

  • Develop target – control analysis for E Idaho
  • Assess benefits of additional radiometer
slide-18
SLIDE 18

E Idaho Aircraft

  • Explore aircraft – first cut of

flight lines from WMI

– Cost would be similar to Payette

  • Needs additional review and

discussion…

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slide-19
SLIDE 19

E Idaho Assessment

  • Develop plan for assessment
  • Initial discussions with DRI
  • Since Payette assessment…

– Australia’s Snowy Hydro – Wyoming

  • Draw from these and other research efforts that show cloud

seeding works

  • IPC’s intent will be to focus assessment on project targeting,

project efficiency, and measuring effect

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SLIDE 20

Targeting from Chemistry Data

  • Targeting of the seeding
  • perations was assessed by

integrating the silver found in the snow over a given storm period to estimate the total amount of silver deposited during the storm.

December 6 through 9, 2004 March 5 and 6, 2004 Control site

MC BC NG V MM KR BM MC BC NG V MM KR BM CM

Ground-generator Site

= silver deposited 100 x 10 -12 g

= silver 100 g released

Example Targeting Maps for the March 2004 and December 2004 storm periods

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Trace Chemistry Interpretation

Trace Chemistry Snow Pack Density 13% increase in integrated water mass (SWE).

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slide-22
SLIDE 22

2004 Cloud Physics

Airborne seeding starts at left edge of

  • frame. Note that the total ice mass

increases dramatically about 20 minutes after the onset of seeding while at the same time, the mean ice crystal size decreases. Indicative of conversion of supercooled liquid water into new ice crystals that can then grow into snowflakes.

Time (GMT)

08:15:00 08:25:00 08:35:00 08:45:00 Altitude (m) 3000 3200 3400 3600 3800 4000 Vertical Velocity (m/s)

  • 500

500 1000 1500 Altitude (m) Vertical Velocity Temperature (oC)

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 Dewpoint (oC)

  • 10
  • 5

5 10 Dewpoint Temperature 08:15:00 08:25:00 08:35:00 08:45:00 FSSP LWC (gm-3) 0.0 0.5 1.0 DMT LWC (g/m3) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 FSSP LWC DMT LWC Mixing Ratio (g/kg) 2 4 6 8 Saturation Vapor Pressure (mb) 2 3 4 5 6 MixRatio SatVap Mean Ice Crystal Size (um) 100 200 300 Median Ice Crystal Size (um) 100 200 300 Mean (um) MVD (um) 2DC Total Ice Concentration (#/l) 100 200 300 400 ShadowOr Crystal Concentration (#/l) 200 400 600 800 Total Accepted Conc. ShadowOr Conc.

I= I I= I

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SLIDE 23

Silver Toxicity

  • The WMA has issued a statement on toxicity of silver originating

from cloud seeding… http://weathermodification.org/AGI_toxicity.pdf

  • In summary,

“The published scientific literature clearly shows no environmentally harmful effects arising from cloud seeding with silver iodide aerosols have been observed; nor would they be expected to occur. Based on this work, the WMA finds that silver iodide is environmentally safe as it is currently being dispensed during cloud seeding programs.”

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Questions?