“I slamists have been the greatest beneficiaries of the Arab Spring, not only on account of their supe- rior organizational abilities, but also because of the support they have received as a result of their prominence as victims of authoritarianism. Islamists have been joined in the uprisings by other popular movements. Many recently empowered Islamist organizations are now involved in a power struggle, in which the logical response is to forge large coalitions with liberals, secularists, and leftists. New expressions of Islamism are gaining adherents who are aware of widespread changes around the world and who are committed to the principles of human rights, democracy, and diversity. The future actions of Islamist leaders will reveal whether these commitments are genuine or hollow. Transformation in the Middle East demands a shift in U.S. strategy. Authoritarian regimes can preserve U.S. interests in the short term, but only democratic forces can provide stability, enduring cooperation, and shared values. It is also important to ponder the regional aspects of the Arab Spring: How will it affect the remaining au- thoritarian regimes in the region? How will it influence the relationship between Islamists on the one hand, and liberals and leftists on the other? Can mainstream Islamist tendencies survive? What are the characteris- ” tics of an Islamist civil state? These are some of the questions whose answers only time will reveal. — Mokhtar Benabdallaoui, July 12, 2012
Democratic Transition in the Middle East: Between Authoritarianism and Islamism 2 Dr. Mokhtar Benabdallaoui Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow National Endowment for Democracy July 12, 2012
Presentation Overview 3 An Overview of the Arab Uprisings I. Social Islamization Versus Political Islamism II. III. Six Categories of Arab Countries IV. Case Studies The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt Al-Nahda in Tunisia The Justice and Development Party in Morocco The Justice and Charity Party in Morocco Hezbollah in Lebanon The Outlook for Islamism and Democracy V.
I. An Overview of the Arab Uprisings 4
“A Summer Storm ” 5 Major Characteristics of the Arab Uprisings Spontaneous Governments, citizens, and academics failed to predict large-scale protests Demonstrations occurred with minimal central planning Protests were organic and lacked major leaders or organizational capacity Diverse Joined by various segments of society: leftists, seculars, Islamists, women, and liberals Region-wide Unrest touched every country in the Middle East, from the Atlantic coast to the Gulf
Why is the Arab Spring So Unpredictable? 6 When fundamental liberties are banned, it is difficult to observe transformation within a society “The Arab Exception” Claim that Arab society and culture were incompatible with democracy The Arab Spring repudiated this thesis Disregard of Sociological Indicators Urbanization Rising education levels and literacy rates Modern nuclear family structure Integration of women into the labor market New forms of communication
“Mechanic” Social Relations 7 Characteristic of countries with poor social integration Strong allegiance to tribe, sect, and religion Examples: Syria Dominant Yemen Sect Libya Religious and Ethical Barriers Sect 2 Sect 3
Organic Social Relations 8 Characteristic of countries with high levels of social integration Identity based on citizenship, strong allegiance to nation Examples : Egypt Representative 1 Tunisia Representative Representative 5 2 Representative Representative 4 3
Levels of Institutionalization 9 The inheritance of the presidency posed problems for authoritarians in Syria, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen Widely unpopular among population Eroded the legitimacy of the rulers The Influence and Role of the Military The loyalty and mission of the military played a role in the fate of Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Libya, and Yemen The outcomes of the uprisings depended in large part on the degree of institutionalization of the military
II. Social Islamization Versus Political Islamism 10
Social Islamization Versus Political Islamism 11 Social Islamization Political Islamism Spontaneous action emanating from below Intentional action from above Source of collective & individual identity Goal: to mobilize and govern Specific tool to assert modernity A political order An ethical framework An economic theory A social model Can Social Islamization Encourage Radicalization? When the government imposes unjustified restrictions on the population When a political party or government focuses on one component of identity
Consequences of Monolithism 12 Identification 1 Religion Fundamentalism Tribe Identification 2 Racism Ethnicity Identification 3 Nation Chauvinism
Composite Identity 13 Religion Human Ethnic National
Characteristics of Classical Political Islamism 14 Classical Political Islamism Rigidly orthodox Dogmatic Fundamentalist Totalitarian (Islam is the solution) These Characteristics Were Not Exclusive to Islamism Any political entity that bases its legitimacy on religion can commit similar transgressions Often leads to confusion between the sacred and the secular, the religious and the political
A Shift in the Rhetoric of Islamism 15 Rejection of the Idea of the Caliphate Discarded in favor of democracy Abandonment of the Implementation of Sharia An increasing commitment to universal values Still adhere to general principles of sharia as source of legislation, but refrain from the immediate implementation of its rigid stipulations Neutralization of the Mosque An agreement in principle to distinguish religion from political activities Distinction between sacred and public space Acceptance of the Civil State Equality under the law Citizenship Opportunities for minorities and women
The Diversity of Islamists 16 Elements that have led to the diversity of Islamist organizations: Different interpretations of religious texts Changes in social or political contexts Relations with government Organizational structure Big/Small Administrative/Charismatic Public/Secret Dissent within the group
III. Six Categories of Arab Countries 17
Countries of Revolution 18 Tunisia Well integrated society High performance on human resource indicators Historical ties to Europe Well-educated and literate population Strong national identity Egypt Well integrated society Strong national identity Long political and social traditions History as a coherent state Libya Transitioned from a civil war to revolution as a result of NATO intervention Yemen – The “Incomplete Revolution” Split within the ruling tribe leads to conflict and Saleh’s resignation Rebellion: the Houthi movement in northern Yemen Tensions between northern and southern Yemen Al-Qaeda vies for autonomy in the south
Countries in the Throes of Change 19 Syria A civil war with complex outcomes Characterized by tension and outright conflict between sectarian groups Regional implications with a direct impact on Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and the countries of the Gulf Bahrain A dynamic of sectarian conflict with paradoxical results Direct interference from regional powers such as Saudi Arabia Implications for regional power balance and sectarian relationships
Countries of Reform 20 Morocco Protesters had bold ambitions but only achieved limited reforms King Mohammad VI responded quickly and proposed reforms, including: Empowerment of a prime minister elected by a parliamentary majority Separation of powers Expansion of the prerogatives of mayors These initiatives appeared to signal the beginning of a transformation to a constitutional monarchy However, they contained ambiguous language and were solely intended to pacify protesters, not implement true reform Human rights and press freedoms are still suppressed Jordan King Abdullah promised reforms but failed to deliver Reorganization of the cabinet and removal of multiple prime ministers is a ploy to deflect blame and appeal to the protesters, but has failed to foster actual reform
Countries of Continuity 21 The Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council The regimes attempted to maintain their honor and have found a temporary reprieve from unrest by buying social peace and stability Are these maneuvers sufficient, or will the Gulf monarchies be forced to implement real democratic reforms in the future? While subsidizing the material needs of their populations has temporarily quelled unrest, this “grace period” will be short Eventually, rising unemployment levels, coupled with a large and well-educated youth, will force real democratic reform in the Gulf
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