I slamists have been the greatest beneficiaries of the Arab Spring, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

slamists have been the greatest beneficiaries of the Arab Spring, not only on account of their supe- rior organizational abilities, but also because of the support they have received as a result of their prominence as victims of authoritarianism. Islamists have been joined in the uprisings by other popular movements. Many recently empowered Islamist organizations are now involved in a power struggle, in which the logical response is to forge large coalitions with liberals, secularists, and leftists. New expressions of Islamism are gaining adherents who are aware of widespread changes around the world and who are committed to the principles of human rights, democracy, and diversity. The future actions of Islamist leaders will reveal whether these commitments are genuine or hollow. Transformation in the Middle East demands a shift in U.S. strategy. Authoritarian regimes can preserve U.S. interests in the short term, but only democratic forces can provide stability, enduring cooperation, and shared values. It is also important to ponder the regional aspects of the Arab Spring: How will it affect the remaining au- thoritarian regimes in the region? How will it influence the relationship between Islamists on the one hand, and liberals and leftists on the other? Can mainstream Islamist tendencies survive? What are the characteris- tics of an Islamist civil state? These are some of the questions whose answers only time will reveal. —Mokhtar Benabdallaoui, July 12, 2012

“I ”

Democratic Transition in the Middle East: Between Authoritarianism and Islamism

• Dr. Mokhtar Benabdallaoui

Reagan-Fascell Democracy Fellow National Endowment for Democracy July 12, 2012

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Presentation Overview

I.

An Overview of the Arab Uprisings

II.

Social Islamization Versus Political Islamism

• III. Six Categories of Arab Countries
• IV. Case Studies

 The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt  Al-Nahda in Tunisia  The Justice and Development Party in Morocco  The Justice and Charity Party in Morocco  Hezbollah in Lebanon

V.

The Outlook for Islamism and Democracy

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• I. An Overview of the Arab Uprisings

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“A Summer Storm”

Major Characteristics of the Arab Uprisings

Spontaneous

 Governments, citizens, and academics failed to predict large-scale

protests

 Demonstrations occurred with minimal central planning  Protests were organic and lacked major leaders or organizational

capacity

Diverse

 Joined by various segments of society: leftists, seculars, Islamists, women,

and liberals

Region-wide

 Unrest touched every country in the Middle East, from the Atlantic coast

to the Gulf

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Why is the Arab Spring So Unpredictable?

When fundamental liberties are banned, it is difficult to

• bserve transformation within a society

“The Arab Exception”

 Claim that Arab society and culture were incompatible with

democracy

 The Arab Spring repudiated this thesis

Disregard of Sociological Indicators

 Urbanization  Rising education levels and literacy rates  Modern nuclear family structure  Integration of women into the labor market  New forms of communication

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“Mechanic” Social Relations

Characteristic of countries with poor social integration Strong allegiance to tribe, sect, and religion Examples:

 Syria  Yemen  Libya

Dominant Sect

Sect 2

Religious and Ethical Barriers

Sect 3

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Organic Social Relations

Characteristic of countries with high levels of social integration Identity based on citizenship, strong allegiance to nation Examples:

 Egypt  Tunisia

Representative 1 Representative 2 Representative 3 Representative 4 Representative 5 8

Levels of Institutionalization

The inheritance of the presidency posed problems for authoritarians in Syria, Libya, Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen

 Widely unpopular among population  Eroded the legitimacy of the rulers

The Influence and Role of the Military

 The loyalty and mission of the military played a role in the fate

• f Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Libya, and Yemen

 The outcomes of the uprisings depended in large part on the

degree of institutionalization of the military

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• II. Social Islamization Versus Political

Islamism

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Social Islamization Versus Political Islamism

Social Islamization

• Spontaneous action emanating from below
• Source of collective & individual identity
• Specific tool to assert modernity

Political Islamism

• Intentional action from above
• Goal: to mobilize and govern
• A political order
• An ethical framework
• An economic theory
• A social model

Can Social Islamization Encourage Radicalization?

• When the government imposes unjustified restrictions on the population
• When a political party or government focuses on one component of

identity

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Consequences of Monolithism

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Identification 1 Religion Fundamentalism Identification 2 Tribe Ethnicity Racism Identification 3 Nation Chauvinism

Composite Identity

Religion Ethnic National Human

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Characteristics of Classical Political Islamism

Classical Political Islamism

 Rigidly orthodox  Dogmatic  Fundamentalist  Totalitarian (Islam is the solution)

These Characteristics Were Not Exclusive to Islamism

 Any political entity that bases its legitimacy on religion can commit similar

transgressions

 Often leads to confusion between the sacred and the secular, the religious

and the political

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A Shift in the Rhetoric of Islamism

Rejection of the Idea of the Caliphate

 Discarded in favor of democracy

Abandonment of the Implementation of Sharia

 An increasing commitment to universal values  Still adhere to general principles of sharia as source of legislation, but refrain

from the immediate implementation of its rigid stipulations Neutralization of the Mosque

 An agreement in principle to distinguish religion from political activities  Distinction between sacred and public space

Acceptance of the Civil State

 Equality under the law  Citizenship  Opportunities for minorities and women

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The Diversity of Islamists

Elements that have led to the diversity of Islamist

• rganizations:

 Different interpretations of religious texts  Changes in social or political contexts  Relations with government  Organizational structure

 Big/Small  Administrative/Charismatic  Public/Secret

 Dissent within the group

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• III. Six Categories of Arab Countries

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Countries of Revolution

Tunisia

 Well integrated society  High performance on human resource indicators  Historical ties to Europe  Well-educated and literate population  Strong national identity

Egypt

 Well integrated society  Strong national identity  Long political and social traditions  History as a coherent state

Libya

 Transitioned from a civil war to revolution as a result of NATO intervention

Yemen – The “Incomplete Revolution”

 Split within the ruling tribe leads to conflict and Saleh’s resignation  Rebellion: the Houthi movement in northern Yemen  Tensions between northern and southern Yemen  Al-Qaeda vies for autonomy in the south

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Countries in the Throes of Change

Syria

 A civil war with complex outcomes  Characterized by tension and outright conflict between

sectarian groups

 Regional implications with a direct impact on Iran, Israel,

Lebanon, and the countries of the Gulf

Bahrain

 A dynamic of sectarian conflict with paradoxical results  Direct interference from regional powers such as Saudi

Arabia

 Implications for regional power balance and sectarian

relationships

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Countries of Reform

Morocco

 Protesters had bold ambitions but only achieved limited reforms  King Mohammad VI responded quickly and proposed reforms, including:

 Empowerment of a prime minister elected by a parliamentary majority  Separation of powers  Expansion of the prerogatives of mayors

 These initiatives appeared to signal the beginning of a transformation to a

constitutional monarchy

 However, they contained ambiguous language and were solely intended to

pacify protesters, not implement true reform

 Human rights and press freedoms are still suppressed

Jordan

 King Abdullah promised reforms but failed to deliver

 Reorganization of the cabinet and removal of multiple prime ministers is a

ploy to deflect blame and appeal to the protesters, but has failed to foster actual reform

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Countries of Continuity

The Countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council

 The regimes attempted to maintain their honor and have

found a temporary reprieve from unrest by buying social peace and stability Are these maneuvers sufficient, or will the Gulf monarchies be forced to implement real democratic reforms in the future?

 While subsidizing the material needs of their populations has

temporarily quelled unrest, this “grace period” will be short

 Eventually, rising unemployment levels, coupled with a large

and well-educated youth, will force real democratic reform in the Gulf

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Countries of Ostensible Exception

Because of unique circumstances, these countries lack the stability, unity, and determination necessary for sustained protests:

Algeria

 A heritage of a long and painful civil war  Hundreds of thousands killed in the 1990s in violence between Islamists

and the military

Sudan

 Recent secession of South Sudan  Simultaneous civil wars  The plight of everyday life

Iraq

 Foreign occupation  Experienced a series of wars since the 1980s  Sectarian conflicts between Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds  Plight of everyday life

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The Real Exception

Lebanon

 Country is a sectarian democratic oligarchy  Affected by the legacy of a long and brutal civil war  Vulnerable to the influence of regional powers  Politically unstable due to tenuous ruling coalitions  Conservatism of the society paralyzes the

modernization of the state

 Political gridlock and sectarian concerns hamper

progress and the transformation of the political system

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• IV. Case Studies

“We should get married before we learn about sectarianism.”

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The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt

Economic Challenges

 Avoid government bankruptcy  Programs to create jobs  Initiatives to attract foreign investment  Educational investments to foster prosperity

The Puzzle of Success

 Economic prosperity can be created by unpopular political

decisions, relationships, and concessions

Can democracy grow despite restrictions imposed by the military?

 Yes, the Muslim Brotherhood needs national unity to resist

military hegemony

 It needs cooperation from political rivals, including secular

parties, to balance the power of the military

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Al-Nahda in Tunisia

The Legacy of Habib Bourguiba

 The success of contemporary Tunisia is largely due to one man: former

president Habib Bourguiba

Al-Nahda: The Avant-Garde Islamist Organization

 The first self-critical political party  The first party accepting of political diversity  Europe will remain Tunisia’s privileged partner  Tunisia will invest primarily in the Maghreb

Will Tunisia become a new democratic Islamist paradigm for the Middle East?

 Al-Nahda’s success will increase the power and prestige of Tunisia  Al-Nahda could become a model for other Islamist groups in the

Middle East

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The JDP and J&C in Morocco

The Justice and Development Party (JDP)

 In response to protests, the king brought the JDP into the

government to resolve social and economic crises

 However, the JDP has no real power and serves as a

scapegoat

 The party is now blamed for the country’s continuing

problems

 Possesses a weak mobilization capacity  Disadvantaged due to the fragmented political arena

Justice and Charity (J&C)

 A paradox: political Sufism  Believe that change can only come from society

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Hezbollah in Lebanon

What theoretical framework is useful for understanding wilayat al-Fakih?

 The necessity of Iranian support, which is vital to Hezbollah’s

political power

 From waiting for salvation to taking initiative on public issues  From the goal of an Islamic republic to “Lebanon first”  The genius of the Lebanese system

Political Trends Do Not Favor Hezbollah

 Strategic alliance with a failed state—Syria  From the protected to the protector of Syria  A decrease in Iran’s regional role  Sunni-Shia polarization

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• V. The Outlook for Islamism and

Democracy

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Islamism and Arab Societies

 The experience of the Egyptian elections shows that a vote for

Islamists is often a vote of protest instead of a vote for Islamist principles, which foreshadows the rise of other political strains

 The inclusion of Islamists in the political arena will moderate

their speech, force them to embrace compromise, and make religion more inconsequential—which is good for democracy and Arab societies

 The existence of Islamist regimes in Arab countries, and

increased ties due to political similarities, can promote economic integration and free trade and enhance prosperity in the region

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Islamism and Democracy

 The collapse of four military and police regimes—Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and

Yemen—presents a unique opportunity to establish democracy in the region

 It is time for the reform of religion: between a new Islamism and Salafism  The new Islamism is an effective means of removing “inviolability” from public

policy

 Islamists have started to embrace universal principles, such as human rights

and respect for individual freedoms

 Islamists are on the path to democracy  Engage in more efforts to abandon dogmatism (epitomized by the slogan Islam

is the solution)

 Reject the use of religion in politics, which foments sectarianism  Elaborate concrete political projects

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Islamists and Relations with the United States

The Cost of “Stability”

 The embrace of military and authoritarian regimes has failed to

promote stability or democracy in the Arab world Towards a New Option for Stability and Development in the Middle East?

 Embrace of legitimate, democratically elected governments is the

most effective, low-cost way to promote stability and American interests in the Middle East

 Islamists share the same free market principles as the United States  An inclusive policy can promote real pluralism in the future  Political engagement will mitigate some religious restrictions to

promote economic and political goals

 The United States should partner with democratic Islamist

governments to promote stability, freedom, and economic

• pportunities in the Arab world

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