[PPT] - Hydrological Effects of Climate Change on the Korean Peninsula PowerPoint Presentation

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Hydrological Effects of Climate Change on the Korean Peninsula

The 14th AIM International Workshop in Tsukuba, Japan

2009. 02. 15
Mr. H.C. Jung1), Prof. Y.Matsuoka1), Prof. D.K. Lee2)

1) Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Japan 2) Seoul National University, Korea

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Background and Research Needs

There is substantial evidences that global warming has intensified the global

hydrological cycle during the last 20th century (Dai, 2006; Trenberth et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007a)

Warmer temperatures are resulting in increasing water contents in air and more

precipitation and evaporation. Increasing precipitation is thought to be the primary reason for the observed runoff increases in many river basins (Huntington, 2008)

According to the recent climate simulations, the increasing trend of precipitation

will be continuing in the Northern Hemisphere in the 21st century (IPCC, 2008). It may result in increasing mean annual runoff or water supply for human activities and natural ecosystems on the Korean Peninsula.

(b) ROK- annual prcipitation

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Precipitation (mm/year) .

Historical A1 A2 B1 B2

A1 B2 B1 A2

(a) ROK- annual mean temperature

8 10 12 14 16 18 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Land area temperature ( ˚ C) . Historical A1 A2 B1 B2

A1 A2 B1 B2

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Background and Research Needs

Although the mean annual water availability may be increased by climate change,

the increasing seasonal variability of precipitation is expected to make more extreme events such as summer flood and winter drought in Korea

Along with spatial and seasonal variability, the forest ecosystem has important role

in controlling hydrological cycle on the Korean Peninsula where about 70% of the region is forested.

Climate is a major driver of forest species distribution and the growth rate and

structure of forests. Thus, climate change can potentially have significant effects on the role of forests in regulating water flow and influencing the availability and quality of water resources.

In addition to climate change effects on water and forests, the physiological effect
f doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration is another driver

for global mean runoff increases.

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Research Objectives

Evaluation of Current Water Balance of Korean Ecosystem Using a

GIS-based hydrological Model: For considering indirect effect of climate and land

cover change on the Korean ecosystem, A process-based forest-hydrology model and detailed surface information have developed and validated using GIS and RS.

Evaluation of Ecosystem Contribution to Changes in Climate and

Vegetation Cover: For assessing the sensitivity of water balance to climate change

considering tree species change and CO2 physiological effects, changes in water balance of selected 8 forested watersheds have evaluated using MRI-RCM and 3 different environmental change scenarios

Projection of Potential Hydrological Impact of Climate and Vegetation

Change: For assessing the regional impact of climate change on the Korean

Peninsula, water availability, flood, and drought impacts have simulated using high resolution climate model scenarios

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Methodologies

Modeling and Assessment Approaches

Define and develop geographic and ecological scope of Korean ecosystem and watersheds Development and evaluation of climate change scenarios (5km resolution) Stochastic weather generation with monthly climate Atmospheric CO2 concentration Threats to habitat and biodiversity Threats to hydrological function

Model parameteri zation and calibration

Future Land and Vegetation Cover Database A GIS-based Hydrological Model

Land use manageme nt and conservati

n strategy

Change in hydrological response in watersheds

Changes in water availability
Changes in flood events and intensity
Changes in drought events and

intensity

Change in biodiversity and conservation status

Changes in potential vegetation
Extents, continuity and fragmentation
f remaining forest cover
Changes in land use allocation

Define Ecological and Hydrological Hot-spots for

implementing adaptation strategies

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Forest and crop fraction

% 20 40 60 80 100 Frequency 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

DPK- forest ROK- forest DPK- crop ROK -crop Slope

degree 5 10 15 20 25 Frequency 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

DPK ROK Height

m 500 1000 1500 2000 Frequency 100 200 300 400

DPK ROK Basin area

km2 200 400 600 800 1000 Frequency 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

DPK ROK

Development and evaluation of database (1) - Watersheds and river networks

Delineating and evaluation of Korean watersheds and river-network

A. Unit basin from SRTM 90-m DEM

B. Pfafstetter basin

encoding for routing

D. Providing additional information
E. Characteristics of the Korean watersheds
C. Land cover database

No. A H slope DPK 737 170.0 532.2 12.4 ROK 820 122.1 166.1 9.7

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A.ROK-Gyeonggi J F M A M J J A S O N D Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 100 200 300 Temperature (oC)

10

10 20 30 P PE T2 C.ROK-Gangwon J F M A M J J A S O N D Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 100 200 300 Temperature (oC)

10

10 20 30 P PE T2

E. ROK-Chungcheong

J F M A M J J A S O N D Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 100 200 300 Temperature (oC)

10

10 20 30 P PE T2 G.ROK-Jeolla J F M A M J J A S O N D Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 100 200 300 Temperature (oC)

10

10 20 30 P PE T2 I.ROK-Gyeongsang J F M A M J J A S O N D Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 100 200 300 Temperature (oC)

10

10 20 30 P PE T2

Annual precipitation

mm/year 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Frequency 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

DPK ROK

B.DPK-Pyeongan J F M A M J J A S O N D Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 100 200 300 Temperature (oC)

10

10 20 30 P PE T2 D.DPK-Gangwon J F M A M J J A S O N D Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 100 200 300 Temperature (oC)

10

10 20 30 P PE T2 F.DPK-Hwanghae J F M A M J J A S O N D Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 100 200 300 Temperature (oC)

10

10 20 30 P PE T2 H.DPK-Hamgyeong J F M A M J J A S O N D Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 100 200 300 Temperature (oC)

20
10

10 20 30 P PE T2 J.DPK-Yanggange/Jagang J F M A M J J A S O N D Precipitation and potential ET (mm) 100 200 300 Temperature (oC)

20
10

10 20 30 P PE T2

Mean annual temperature

C

2

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Frequency 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

DPK ROK

ROK DPK

Development and evaluation of database (2) - 30-year daily climate (1971-2000)

Annual mean temperature (oC) Annual mean precipitation (mm/year) Simulated PE (mm/year)

Unit basin characteristics by the 30-yr mean annual temperature and precipitation

Area (1000km2) Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual ROK 99.4 22.8 6.5 11.9 862 448 1310 477 310 787 DPK 122.5 19.1 0.6 6.8 620 260 880 402 171 573 Mean temperature (oC) Precipitation (mm) Potential ET (mm)

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Water balance modeling

Long-term water balances of gauged catchments

as

w av av

S P E R t t

Thus

as

av

E P R t

Surface evaporation = canopy + soil evaporation

surface canopy soil

E E E

Modified PM equation for surface & canopy evaporation

/ (1 ) / 1 / 1 / 1 surface canopy soil

a i a i a s a c

G G G G f G G G G

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Surface parameterization and potential evaporation: Surface parameters

Selected initial parameters for gB90k model that vary by cover type

S urface pa rameters Conifer forest (cf) Deciduous fores t (df) Mixed forest (mf) Cropland (rice) (cu) Grassland (gr)

Barren (br)

Maximum catalyti c capacity of Rubisco, V 0max （ μmol CO2/m

2/s）

81.4 53.6 67.5 75.6 62.3

153

Maximum leaf conductance, g l max (cm s-1) 0.55 0.59 0.46 1.1(0.84) 0.8

0.5

Maximum projected leaf area index, L pmax (m

2 m

2)

5.0 6.0 5.5 2.5 2.0

1.0

Minimum projected leaf area index, L pmin (m

2 m

2)

1.2 0.6 1.0 0.2 0.2

0.2

Canopy height, h (m) 20.0 20.0 20.0 0.7 0.5

0.1

Leaf width, l (m) 0.004 0.100 0.100 0.030 0.100

0.100

Ground surface roughness, z 0g (m) 0.020 0.020 0.020 0.005 0.010

0.001

Albedo, a (-) 0.14 0.18 0.15 0.22 0.24

0.26

Canopy exti ncti on coefficient for radi ation, C R (-) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7

0.7 Root length (m m-2) 3100 3000 3050 110 1000 280

99% root mass depth (m) 1.86 1.33 1.60 1.13 0.80

0.80

95% root mass depth (m)

1.21 0.86 1.04 0.73 0.52 0.52 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 89/1 89/5 89/9 90/1 90/5 90/9 91/1 Simulated PE and Pan evaporation (mm/d) Pan (Jeonju) PE (Coniferous forest) 10 day average (Pan) 10 day average (SW) 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Jeonju (SJ) Chuncheon (SY) 20-year mean annual PE (mm/year)

Pan conifer forest deciduous forest mixed forest cropland grassland

Comparison of PE by the SW day-night method and measured Pan Evaporation at the two metrological stations which are near to Sumjingangdam (SJ) and Syanggangdam (SY) watershed: daily mean PE (left) and long-term (1971-1990) mean annual PE by cover types (right).

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Daily weather generation form monthly climate data using a grid-based WXGEN

A. Precipitation generation parameters
Regressed properties are based on daily and monthly climate variables from 111 GTS-weather stations

(ROK-84, DPK-27) during 1971 – 2000

Keep the total amount of monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature
Radiation, wind speed and humidity are also generated from wet day probabilities
B. Generated daily precipitation and max. temperature at Mt. Junbong flux tower

P(W|D) = 0.6676*P(W) + 0.0241 R

2 = 0.9218

P(W|W) = 0.9866* P(W) + 0.1699 R

2= 0.7726

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Proportion of wet days in month, P(W) Probability of wet day in month .

P(W|D) P(W|W) PCPSTD = 0.5772 * (PCPMM / PCPD) 1.1807 R2 = 0.9374 10 20 30 40 50 10 20 30 40

Average amount of precipitation falling in wet days for month, PCPD (mm/d)

Standard deviation of average daily . Precipitation, PCPSTD (mm/d)

PCPSKW = 1 / (-0.1141+ 0.604 * (PCPAVE / PCPSTD) 0.6159), R2 = 0.8239 5 10 15 20 25 30 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

Shape parameters, (PCPAVE / PCPSTD)2 Skew coefficient of average daily . Precipitation, PCPSKEW

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Indicator for Flood and Drought Risk

Drought risk, drying of wetlands Monthly streamflow with an exceedance probability of 95% Average water availability of other ecosystem processes and human activity such as hydropower generation Monthly streamflow with an exceedance probability of 50% Flooding of human properties, disturbance of ecosystems by floods Daily streamflow with an exceedance probability of 5% Environmental threat Indicator Q5dbase ,daily flow exceeded 5% of the current time(1981- 2000), m3/s Q95mbase Monthly flow exceeded 95% of the current time(1981- 2000), m3/s

Flood risk severity

= (Q5dfuture – Q5dbase) / Q5dbase

Drought risk severity

= (Q95mfuture – Q95mbase) / Q95mbase

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Model efficiency and water balance error in the selected eight forested watersheds using daily time step

A.Soyanggangdam Observed monthly runoff (mm) 200 400 600 800 Simulated monthly runoff (mm) 200 400 600 800 calibration validation r2-cal. = 0.953 r2-val. = 0.955 B.Hwacheondam Observed monthly runoff (mm) 200 400 600 800 Simulated monthly runoff (mm) 200 400 600 800 calibration validation r2-cal. = 0.905 r2-val. = 0.807 C.Chungjudam Observed monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 600 Simulated monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 600 calibration validation D.Namgangdam Observed monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 600 Simulated monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 600 calibration validation r2-cal. = 0.852 r2-val. = 0.935 r 2-cal. = 0.962 r2-val. = 0.912 E.Hapcheondam Observed monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 Simulated monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 calibration validation r2-cal. = 0.953 F.Andongdam Observed monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 Simulated monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 calibration validation r 2-cal. = 0.964 r2-val. = 0.799 G.Deacheongdam Observed monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 600 Simulated monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 600 calibration validation H.Seomjingangdam Observed monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 Simulated monthly runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 500 calibration validation r2-cal. = 0.965 r 2-val. = 0.949 r2-cal. = 0.919 r2-val. = 0.928

ID Obs Sim %Bias Effi. Obs Sim %Bias Effi. Obs Sim %Bias Effi. Obs Sim %Bias Effi. SY 836 758

9.4

0.845 836 836 0.0 0.855 801 839 4.8 0.842 872 824

5.4

0.865 HW 717 599

16.5

0.655 717 717

0.1

0.654 618 637 3.0 0.771 817 793

2.9

0.513 CJ 781 856 16.9 0.514 781 717

0.4

0.550 716 737 3.0 0.533 911 692

7.2

0.564 NG 857 861

0.6

0.672 857 871 0.5 0.709 896 817

8.8

0.799 818 923 9.9 0.588 HC 641 723 4.8 0.853 641 690

0.1

0.851 641 642 0.1 0.822

AD

596 574

5.4

0.688 596 605

0.2

0.694 611 631 3.5 0.687 575 574

6.8

0.585 DC 663 722 10.0 0.677 663 656 0.0 0.673 627 637 1.7 0.672 715 664

4.2

0.561 SJ 718 727 2.5 0.448 718 711 0.1 0.619 680 669

1.3

0.695 772 748 1.2 0.534 Initial setting (1981 - 2000) Water blance adjusting (1981 - 2000) Flow calibration (1991 - 2000) Flow validation (1981 - 1990)

Soyanggangdam X Data 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Annual runoff (mm) 500 1000 1500 2000 Observed Simulated Soyanggangdam Monthly runoff (mm) 200 400 600 800 Observed Simulated 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Daily discharge (m3/s) 500 1000 1500 Precipitation (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 300

Model Validation

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bs

sim

bs

sim

bs

sim S .Korea (ROK) S 1.S

yanggangdam

127.8120 37.9461 2694 0.63 74-01 336 793 0.18 0.18 0.01 0.03 0.756 0.576 0.722 0.029 S 2.Hwacheondam 127.7830 38.1167 4083 0.68 71-00 360 703 0.24 0.22 0.03 0.03 1.090 0.865 0.593

8.448

S 3.Munmag 127.8120 37.3023 1349 0.42 91-01 84 549 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.304 0.218 0.857 0.521 S 4.Chungjudam 127.9960 37.0036 6661 0.53 87-01 180 759 0.42 0.42 0.04 0.06 1.941 1.758 0.863

0.116

S 5.J ucheon 128.2680 37.2652 534 0.59 91-01 132 801 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.134 0.116 0.775

0.326

S 6.Panun 128.3460 37.2943 807 0.57 96-01 72 821 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.220 0.213 0.771

0.826

S 7.Namgangdam 128.0370 35.1590 2281 0.60 76-01 312 840 0.16 0.16 0.02 0.02 0.679 0.575 0.783

0.311

S 8.Hapcheondam 128.0450 35.5550 929 0.52 91-01 132 631 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.224 0.212 0.871 0.402 S 9.Imhadam 128.8870 36.5364 1367 0.35 94-01 96 353 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.235 0.210 0.739

0.598

S 10.Andongdam 128.7770 36.5800 1592 0.53 77-01 264 589 0.08 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.292 0.252 0.744

0.399

S 11.Hoedeog 127.4120 36.3756 609 0.64 94-01 96 833 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.202 0.171 0.789

0.576

S 12.Daecheongdam 127.4840 36.4758 4190 0.51 81-01 216 637 0.22 0.22 0.02 0.03 1.008 0.778 0.833

0.174

S 13.J uamdam 127.2420 35.0611 1016 0.46 96-01 72 693 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.317 0.245 0.788

0.754

S 14.S eomjingangdam 127.1140 35.5394 764 0.52 75-01 288 685 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.177 0.145 0.712

0.036

S 15.S amcheog 129.1700 37.4354 374 0.49 95-01 84 592 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.071 0.079 0.839

0.974

N.Korea (DPK) N1.Mirim 125.7800 39.0100 12392 0.46 76-82 84 454 0.47 0.47 0.05 0.07 3.180 2.157 0.529

0.479

N2.S amdung 126.1800 38.9800 2794 0.51 76-84 108 592 0.14 0.14 0.02 0.02 0.728 0.625 0.665

0.642

N3.Kumchang 127.1300 41.5300 18316 0.34 76-84 108 222 0.34 0.34 0.06 0.09 0.936 1.256 0.492

0.450

N4.S

ngchon

126.2200 39.2700 1798 0.43 76-84 108 460 0.07 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.407 0.300 0.481

0.562

Runoff (mm/yr) Monthly efficiency %Bias Long-term average Monthly Q95 (km

3/month)

Monthly Q5 (km

3/month)

NAME Lat Lon. Area (km

2)

Runoff rate Period

No. of

month

Long-term average monthly flow Observed discharge (km3/month)

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10

Simulated discharge (km3/month)

0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 Monthly mean flow Monthly Q95 flow Monthly Q5 flow Regression line 95% confi, line Monthly mean flow Bias = -0.03 km3/month R2 = 0.9989 Monthly Q5 flow Bias = -2.15 km3/month R2 = 0.9328 Monthly Q95 flow Bias = 0.14 km3/month R2 = 0.9514

Monthly flow and model efficiency using generated daily climate

Model validation (2)

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18.9 18.4 13.8 13.6 6.6 6.7 3.9 3.9 2.7 2.7 5.1 4.9 6.0 5.7 6.3 7.5

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Reported (69-98) Simulated (71-00) Runoff (10 9 m3/year) Han Nakdong Geum Seomjin Yeongsan Anseongcheon Sapgyocheon Mangyeong Dongjin Hyeongsan East coast West coast South coast

33.9 33.8 28.1 27.8 12.5 12.7 6.9 6.9 4.7 4.6 7.9 7.6 9.1 8.6 11.3 13.4

20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Reported (69-98) GIS (71-00) Precipitation (10 9 m3/year) 26.0 26.2 23.7 23.7 9.8 10.0 4.9 4.9 3.4 3.5 6.3 6.2 7.2 7.1 7.8 9.3

20 40 60 80 100 120

Reported (69-98) GIS (71-00)

Area (1000 km

3)

ΔArea=0.8% ΔP=0.4% ΔRO=-4.3%

Comparing with the National Report, Water Vision 2020 (2000)

Cimparison of 30-year mean annual water resources in Korea with Water Vision 2020 (MOCT, 2000) Reported (69-98) GIS (71-00) Δ (%) Reported (69-98) Simulated (71-00) Δ (%) Reported (69-98) Simulated (71-00) Δ (%) Reported (69-98) Simulated (71-00) Initial (71-00) Han 33.9 33.8

0.3

18.9 18.4

2.3

18.9 18.4

2.3

0.558 0.546 0.546 Nakdong 28.1 27.8

1.4

13.8 13.6

1.2

13.8 13.6

1.2

0.489 0.490 0.490 Geum 12.5 12.7 1.8 6.6 6.7 1.0 6.6 6.7 1.0 0.531 0.527 0.527 Seomjin 6.9 6.9 0.1 3.9 3.9 0.1 3.9 3.5

10.2

0.568 0.568 0.509 Yeongsan 4.7 4.6

2.9

2.7 2.7

2.9

2.7 2.4

11.0

0.583 0.583 0.535 Anseongcheon 2.2 2.1

3.2

1.3 1.3

3.2

1.3 1.2

10.2

0.610 0.610 0.566 Sapgyocheon 2.0 2.1 5.3 1.0 1.1 5.3 1.0 1.1 12.9 0.511 0.511 0.548 Mangyeong 1.8 1.9 9.9 1.0 1.1 9.9 1.0 1.1 4.2 0.587 0.587 0.556 Dongjin 1.4 1.5 5.7 0.8 0.9 5.7 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.561 0.561 0.541 Hyeongsan 1.3 1.3

5.2

0.6 0.6

5.2

0.6 0.6 1.4 0.441 0.441 0.472 East coast 7.9 7.6

3.4

5.1 4.9

3.4

5.1 4.0

21.0

0.640 0.640 0.524 West coast 9.1 8.6

5.8

6.0 5.7

4.7

6.0 4.7

21.7

0.653 0.660 0.543 South coast 11.3 13.4 18.7 6.3 7.5 19.5 6.3 7.4 17.7 0.561 0.565 0.556 National(inland) 123.7 124.2 0.4 71.4 68.3

4.3

71.4 65.6

8.1

0.577 0.550 0.528 Precipitation, P (km3/yr) Runoff, RO (km3/yr) Initial runoff, ROi (km3/yr) Runoff rate, RO / P

Model validation (3)

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30-year mean annual precipitation (P) and runoff (RO)

Han Nakdong Geum Seomjin Yeongsan Anseongcheon Sapgyocheon Mangyeong Dongjin Hyeongsan East coast West coast South coast National(inland)

(mm/year)

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

RO/P

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Reported RO('69-98) Simulated RO('71-00) Reported P('69-98) GIS-based P('71-00) Simulated runoff rate

A. ROK-Gyeonggi

J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff and actual ET (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Runoff Actual evaporation C.ROK-Gangwon J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff and actual ET (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Runoff Actual evaporation

E. ROK-Chungcheong

J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff and actual ET (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Runoff Actual evaporation G.ROK-Jeolla J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff and actual ET (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Runoff Actual evaporation I.ROK-Gyeongsang J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff and actual ET (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Runoff Actual evaporation B.DPK-Pyeongan J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff and actual ET (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Runoff Actual evaporation D.DPK-Gangwon J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff and actual ET (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Runoff Actual evaporation F.DPK-Hwanghae J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff and actual ET (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Runoff Actual evaporation H.DPK-Hamgyeong J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff and actual ET (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Runoff Actual evaporation J.DPK-Yanggange/Jagang J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff and actual ET (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Runoff Actual evaporation

ROK DPK

Annual mean runoff (mm/year) Runoff rate (=RO/P)

Current Condition of Water Availability in Korea

Area RO / P (1000km2) Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual (-) P RO ROK 99.4 85.7 44.6 130.3 46.9 23.3 70.2 0.539 65.8% 66.8% DPK 122.5 75.9 31.8 107.8 38.3 17.9 56.3 0.522 70.4% 68.1% Precipitation, P (mm) Runoff, RO (mm) Jun.-Sep. fraction

SLIDE 17

17 NQ5dbase, No. of daily flows are greater than flood criteria, Q5d flow NQ95mbase, No. of monthly flows are less than drought criteria, Q95m flow

Number of days and months for flood and drought risk indexing

No. days Qd > Q5d

(1981-2000)

No. months Qm < Q95m

(1981-2000)

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a) ROK, 10-year average (1981-1990)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Precipitation (mm/day)

2 4 6 8 10 12 Observed Climatology MRI-RCM MICRO-T106 CCCma Model CCSRNIES Model CSIRO Model HadCM3 Model

b) DPRK, 10-year average (1981-1990)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2 4 6 8 10 12

c) ROK, 10-year average (1981-1990)

Month

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Surface air temperature ( C)

20
10

10 20 30 Observed Climatology MRI-RCM MICRO-T106 CCCma Model CCSRNIES Model CSIRO Model HadCM3 Model

d) DPRK, 10-year average (1981-1990)

Month

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Set Oct Nov Dec

20
10

10 20 30 Observed Climatology MRI-RCM MICRO-T106 CCCma Model CCSRNIES Model CSIRO Model HadCM3 Model Observed Climatology MRI-RCM MICRO-T106 CCCma Model CCSRNIES Model CSIRO Model HadCM3 Model

Recurrence of current(1981-1990) climate

Future Climate Change Scenario

SLIDE 19

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Future Climate Change Scenarios

a11 A1-CSIRO(TAR) a1b A1B-MICRO(AR4) a21 A2-CCCMA(TAR) a22 A2-CSIRO(TAR) a23 A2-ECHAM(TAR) a24 A2-HADCM(TAR) a25 A2-NCARPCM(TAR) a26 A2-CCCMA(AR4) a27 A2-CSIRO(AR4) a28 A2-ECHAM(AR4) a29 A2-GFDL(AR4) b1 B1-CSIRO(TAR) b21 B2-CCCMA(TAR) b22 B2-CSIRO(TAR) b23 B2-ECHAM(TAR) b24 B2-HADCM(TAR) b25 B2-NCARPCM(TAR) r40 A2-MRI(RCM)2040s r90 A2-MRI(RCM)2090s

ROK (2081-2100)

Temperatuer increase (oC)

1 2 3 4 5

Precipitation change (%)

20 40 60

a11 a1b a21 a22 a23 a24 a25 a26 a27 a28 a29 r90 b1 b21 b22 b23 b24 b25 r40

DPK (2081-2100)

1 2 3 4 5

a11 a1b a21 a22 a23 a24 a25 a26 a27 a28 a29 r90 b1 b21 b22 b23 b24 b25 r40

Micro-high res.

a1b

MRI-RCM

a1b

MRI-RCM

r40 b24 r40 a11 a21 a22 a23 a25 a26 a27 a a2 2 26 8 6 a29 90 b1 b r9 2 90 1 b 6 8 6 22 b 2023 a11 a a25 a26 a27 a 26 2 6 8 a29 r90 b1 b21 b 822 b23 b25

GCMs from TAR and AR4

Future changes in temperature and precipitation comparing with current (1981-1990) climate

SLIDE 20

20

B.DPK-Pyeongan J F M A M J J A S O N D % change in precipitation

40
20

20 40 60 2040s 2090s D.DPK-Gangwon J F M A M J J A S O N D % Change in precipitation

40
20

20 40 60 2040s 2090s F.DPK-Hwanghae J F M A M J J A S O N D % Change in precipitation

60
40
20

20 40 60 80 2040s 2090s H.DPK-Hamgyeong J F M A M J J A S O N D % Change in precipitation

40
20

20 40 60 80 100 2040s 2090s J.DPK-Yanggange/Jagang J F M A M J J A S O N D % Change in precipitation

20
10

10 20 30 40 50 60 2040s 2090s A.ROK-Gyeonggi J F M A M J J A S O N D % change in precipitation

60
40
20

20 40 60 80 2040s 2090s C.ROK-Gangwon J F M A M J J A S O N D % change in precipitation

40
20

20 40 60 80 2040s 2090s

E. ROK-Chungcheong

J F M A M J J A S O N D % Change in precipitation

60
40
20

20 40 60 80 2040s 2090s G.ROK-Jeolla J F M A M J J A S O N D % Change in precipitation

60
40
20

20 40 60 80 100 2040s 2090s I.ROK-Gyeongsang J F M A M J J A S O N D % Change in precipitation

60
40
20

20 40 60 80 100 2040s 2090s

DJF JJA MAM SON Temperature change 2040s (oC) Precipitation change 2040s (%) DJF JJA MAM SON

ROK-ΔP(%) DPK-ΔP(%)

Climate Change on the Korean Peninsula (1): Regional Climate Model, MRIRCM

Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual Jun.-Sep. Oct.-May Annual ROK 1.6 2.6 2.3 42.1 4.0 24.4 2.0 3.1 2.7 16.9

5.1

6.7 DPK 1.5 3.0 2.5 37.0 20.4 30.9 2.3 3.5 3.1 9.4 6.7 8.4 2040s (2031-2050) 2090s (2081-2100) ΔT (oC) ΔP (%) ΔT (oC) ΔP (%)

SLIDE 21

21

DJF MAM JJA SON Absolute change in PE 2040s (mm/year) Percent change in PE 2040s (%)

Climate Change on the Korean Peninsula (2): Absolute and Percent Change in Potential ET by 2040s

SLIDE 22

22 20-year (2081-2100) area mean annual water balance change in response to SRES-A2 scenario as predicted by MRI Regional Climate Model 2.0 and increase in deciduous forest fraction (BDF) Future environmental change setting

ΔT

ΔP ΔRs Δu Δe

BDF CO2 (

C)

(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (ppmv)

National land area mean

2.7 6.7

0.4
0.7

18.1 35.0 700

Selected 8-watersheds mean

2.8 13.1 0.6

0.3

17.6 35.0 700

200 400 600 800 1000

SY HW CJ NG HC AD DC SJ Mean

Runoff and evapotranspiration (mm/year) .

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Runoff coefficient

Y ET Y/P

BASE: 20-year(1981-2000) mean annual water balance

Ecosystem contribution to future runoff change

SLIDE 23

23

y = 0.979x - 70.661 R

2 = 0.919

y = 1.016x - 52.781 R2 = 0.970 y = 1.039x - 44.591 R

2 = 0.976

100

100 200 300 400 500

100

100 200 300 400 500 600 Precipitation change (mm/year) Runoff change (mm/year) . C CP CPV SY HW CJ NG HC AD DC SJ Mean

A. CPV -C

2.7 2.5 10.8 3.5 4.9 5.0 7.1 4.4 5.0

B. CP - C

1.8 1.1 7.7 2.2 3.6 2.3 5.7 2.9 3.3 Climate Change Only, C 10.3 16.7 17.3 4.3 1.6 29.6 10.6 11.9 12.3 C + Physiological Effect, CP 12.2 17.7 25.1 6.4 5.2 31.9 16.3 14.8 15.6 CP + Vegetation Change, CPV 13.0 19.2 28.2 7.8 6.5 34.5 17.7 16.3 17.3

Ecosystem contribution to runoff increases (%)

b) Absolute change of annual precipitation and runoff

CJ 10.8 7.7 17.3 25.1 28.2 HW 2.5 1.1 16.7 17.7 19.2

5 10 15 20 25

SY HW CJ NG HC AD DC SJ Mean

Percent change in evapotranspiration . C CP CPV

a) Actual ET

Ecosystem contribution to future runoff change

SLIDE 24

24

A) 20-year mean (2031-2050)

37.5% 35.1% 11.0% 6.5% 5.8%

7.7%

10.5%

15.9% -16.5% -16.6%

12.7%

3.2%
20
10

10 20 30 40

ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK MRIRCM-A2 Micro-A1B csiro-A1 csiro-A2 csiro-B1 csiro-B2

Change in runoff (km

3/year) .

20%
10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Percent change in runoff .

Oct.-May. Jun.-Sep. %change

Changes in Mean Annual Runoff by 2040s (2031-2050)

MRIRCM MICRO-A1B CSIRO-A1 CSIRO-A2 CSIRO-B1 CSIRO-B2

Climate Change Impact on Water Availability(1)

SLIDE 25

25

I.ROK-Gyeongsang J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s G.ROK-Jeolla J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s

E. ROK-Chungcheong

J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s C.ROK-Gangwon J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s A.ROK-Gyeonggi J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s J.DPK-Yanggange/Jagang J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s H.DPK-Hamgyeong J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s F.DPK-Hwanghae J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s D.DPK-Gangwon J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s B.DPK-Pyeongan J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s

ROK DPK

Absolute change 2040s (mm/year) Percent change 2040s (%) DJF MAM JJA SON

Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability: Changes in Mean Annual and Seasonal Runoff by MRIRCM A2 scenario

SLIDE 26

26

B) 20-year mean (2081-2100)

9.4% 8.4% 35.3% 46.6%

2.5%
17.9% -16.9%
28.2%

6.8%

12.0%

4.3%

1.9%
20
10

10 20 30 40

ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK ROK DPK MRIRCM-A2 Micro-A1B csiro-A1 csiro-A2 csiro-B1 csiro-B2

Change in runoff (km

3/year) .

30%
20%
10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percent change in runoff .

Oct.-May. Jun.-Sep. %change

Changes in Mean Annual Runoff by 2090s (2081-2100)

MRIRCM MICRO-A1B CSIRO-A1 CSIRO-A2 CSIRO-B1 CSIRO-B2

Climate Change Impact on Water Availability(2)

SLIDE 27

27

I.ROK-Gyeongsang J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s G.ROK-Jeolla J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s

E. ROK-Chungcheong

J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s C.ROK-Gangwon J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 Present 2040s 2090s A.ROK-Gyeonggi J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 50 100 150 200 250 300 Present 2040s 2090s J.DPK-Yanggange/Jagang J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s H.DPK-Hamgyeong J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s F.DPK-Hwanghae J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s D.DPK-Gangwon J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s B.DPK-Pyeongan J F M A M J J A S O N D Runoff (mm) 100 200 300 400 Present 2040s 2090s

ROK DPK

Absolute change 2090s (mm/year) Percent change 2090s (%) DJF MAM JJA SON

Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability: Changes in Mean Annual and Seasonal Runoff by Micro high res. A1B scenario

SLIDE 28

28

Percent change in the daily flow exceeded 5% of the time by the 2040s

Climate Change Impact on Flood and Drought

MRIRCM MICRO-A1B CSIRO-A1 CSIRO-A2 CSIRO-B1 CSIRO-B2

Percent change in low flow by the 2040s

SLIDE 29

29

Increase in Flood events (2040s) Increase in Flood severity (2040s) Increase in Flood events (2090s) Increase in Flood severity (2090s)

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme: Potential Flood Risk by MRI-RCM scenario

2040s 2090s

SLIDE 30

30

Increase in Drought events (2090s) Increase in Drought severity (2090s) Increase in Drought events (2040s) Increase in Drought severity (2040s)

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme: Potential Drought Risk by MRI-RCM scenario

2040s 2090s

SLIDE 31

31 MRIRCM MICRO-A1B CSIRO-A1 CSIRO-A2 CSIRO-B1 CSIRO-B2

Potential Risk Area by 2100 extreme

Hydrological Hot-Spots

SLIDE 32

32

Results and Discussions

1. As precipitation will be increased, future runoff also will be

increased in Korean Watersheds. Especially high resolution climate models show much more precipitation and rainfall days.

2. According to the concentration of rainfall on summer season, flood

events and intensity will be increased. Unfortunately some cases show the winter drought and then more precipitation cannot be guaranteed the enough water availability.

3. About 30% of future runoff increases will be caused by changes in

ecosystem structure and distribution.

4. Flood will be increased over whole peninsula and the western parts
f the Peninsula where the most of Korean are living will increase

flood and drought simultaneously.

5. Upper part of the south Han river will be the most impacted

watershed at the end of 2100.

SLIDE 33

33

Thank you for your attention !

SLIDE 34

34 MRIRCM MICRO-A1B CSIRO-A1 CSIRO-A2 CSIRO-B1 CSIRO-B2

Potential Risk Area by 2040s extreme

Hydrological Hot-Spots

SLIDE 35

35

Increase in flood events by 2040s

MRIRCM MICRO-A1B CSIRO-A1 CSIRO-A2 CSIRO-B1 CSIRO-B2

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme (x): Increases in flood events by 2040s

SLIDE 36

36

Increase in drought events by 2040s

MRIRCM MICRO-A1B CSIRO-A1 CSIRO-A2 CSIRO-B1 CSIRO-B2

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme (x): Increases in drought events by 2040s

Hydrological Effects of Climate Change on the Korean Peninsula - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Hydrological Effects of Climate Change on the Korean Peninsula

Contents

Background and Research Needs

Background and Research Needs

Research Objectives

Methodologies

Water balance modeling

Model Validation

Future Climate Change Scenario

Future Climate Change Scenarios

Ecosystem contribution to future runoff change

Climate Change Impact on Water Availability(1)

Climate Change Impact on Water Availability(2)

Climate Change Impact on Flood and Drought

Hydrological Hot-Spots

Results and Discussions

Thank you for your attention !

Hydrological Hot-Spots