Hydra-Models A way to assess the influence of climate change and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Hydra-Models A way to assess the influence of climate change and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Hydra-Models A way to assess the influence of climate change and river programs on future dike heights and the probability of dike failure. Robert Slomp 18 april 2005 Robert Slomp 2 18 april 2005 Contents Hydra-models Flood defense

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18 april 2005 Robert Slomp

Hydra-Models

A way to assess the influence of climate change and river programs on future dike heights and the probability

  • f dike failure.
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18 april 2005 Robert Slomp 2

Contents

Hydra-models Flood defense characteristics per area Room for the River Meuse Works Changes is surplus dike height 2001-2015 Changes in probability of failure, an example

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Probabilistic versus deterministic approach

Deterministic a design water level, a design wind speed and wind direction Probabilistic Infinite number of combinations of water levels, wind speed and wind direction

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What are Hydra-models?

A method to weigh possible physical events (water levels and waves)

Hydra user Rijkswaterstaat

Geographical information

Statistics Physical models

water levels and waves

Data bases

water levels and waves

Hydra

Dike information

Hydraulic load

(water level or runup level at legal return period)

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Hydra’s

* 1998 –1999

Hydra-M, for the IJssel lake area

  • 2001

Hydra-B for the Rhine and Meuse Estuaries extended in 2004 to the borders with Germany and Belgium

  • 2006

Hydra VIJ for the Vecht and IJssel delta area

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Climate change and soil subsidence

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Room for the River objective: to deminish the increase in design water levels

increase in design waterlevels in m from 1996 to 2001

(effects on account of model issues and design discharges have been combined) 400000 410000 420000 430000 440000 450000 460000 470000 480000 490000 500000 510000 520000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 120000 130000 140000 150000 160000 170000 180000 190000 200000 210000 220000

km km

  • 0,45
  • 0,35 - -0,40
  • 0,25 - -0,30
  • 0,15 - -0,20
  • 0,05 - -0,10
  • 0,00

+0,05 - +0,10 +0,15 - +0,20 +0,25 - +0,30 +0,35 - +0,40 +0,45 - +0,50 +0,55 - +0,60

RI

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Little space and more damage potential each year

Arnhem, 1830 Arnhem, 2000

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Measures

Setting back dikes Lowering

  • f river

flood plain and flow channel Raising dikes Construction

  • f bypasses

Buildings

Room for the Rhine branches

E000323c

high w ater level 8

1

2 3 4 low erin g

  • f

gr

  • y

n es deepening low flow channel removing h ydraulic ob stacles low erin g flood plains 5 6 7 8 locally settin g b ack dik es setting back d ik es on a large sc detention reservoir reduction lateral inflow

7 1 1 2 low w ater level 5, 6 3

4

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Meuse Works – mainly improvement of the 40

new dikes and lowering of the flow channel

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Climate change, the influence on dike heights

The influence

  • n

design water levels of a 60 cm sea level rise location meters Bergse Maas km 231 0,10 Bergse Maas km 235 0,12 Bergse Maas km 240 0,16 Bergse Maas km 245 0,23 Bergse Maas km 246 0,25 Bergsche Maas 247 0,37 Bergsche Maas 251 0,50 Hollandsch Diep km 980 S 0,40

1) Extra storm surge and sea level rise: an effect of 60-70% in the lower Rhine and Meuse reaches 3) 10% higher wind speeds and more westerly winds 10% increase? 2) Higher design discharges, main branches and tributaries a 0,60 to 0,80 m increase from the main branches

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Flood retention on the Rhine

1000 m3/s flood retention is a drop of 30 -35 cm on the Waal in design water levels Probabilisticly this is only 20 – 25 cm

Influence of a retention area 1000 m3/s on the design water levels, for different return periods

0,000 0,100 0,200 0,300 0,400 900 920 940 960 980 1000 River km along the Waal influence (drop) in m

mean probabilisticly 1250 2000 4000 WAQUA 1250 till 950, Hydra-B till 980

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Flood retention only takes a bite

  • ut of the flood wave

flood wave with higher return period Intake level x year flood wave

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Dikes have been built in all sizes, forms and heights Rhine Branches 600 km dike, 6000 cross sections Meuse 200 km dike, 2000 cross sections

All dikes are modeled as:

a 1 in 3 outer slope the actual outer crest level the dike perpendicular line from GIS, filtered for 100 m sections

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Surplus dike heights before and after Room for the River

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Surplus dike heights before and after Meuse Works

? 1 2

Neglible flooding

  • f upper reaches

Km 3 to 150/170 Perfect flooding

  • f upper reaches

Km 3 to 150/170

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Probability of dike failure dike ring 43

probability of dike failure, dike ring 43 scenario dike heights critical

  • vertopping

limit max discharge Rhine probability Actual 2001 current design practice 1 l/s per m 18 000 m3/s 1/600 Actual 2001 actual dikes 1 l/s per m 18 000 m3/s 1/200 After RvdR 2015 current design practice 1 l/s per m 18 000 m3/s 1/1100 After RvdR 2015 actual dikes 1 l/s per m 18 000 m3/s 1/1200 After RvdR 2015 actual dikes 50 l/s per m 18 000 m3/s 1/5000 After RvdR 2015 actual dikes 1 l/s per m 16000 m3/s 1/1400