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OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS AT THE PJHQ ONE YEAR ON Hugh Richardson zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Presented at: The 14th International Symposium on Military Operational Research This paper describes how OA is conducted at the PJHQ

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SLIDE 1 OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS AT THE PJHQ ONE YEAR ON Presented at: The 14th International Symposium
  • n Military Operational
Research Hugh Richardson zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Abstract This paper describes how OA is conducted at the PJHQ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1 year after “going
  • perational”. The “modus operandi” of the PJHQ is described and the way in which
OA contributes to the planning and conduct of operations. Particular emphasis is made on the use of historical analysis to support the Distributed Joint OA concept and the response levels required by the PJHQ and the Defence Crisis Management
  • rganisation. Examples of OA and historical analysis support are given and future
requirements identified. Hugh Richardson DACOS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 58 (OA) PJHQ NCC Room 2002 Northwood Middlesex HA6 3TJ 01 923-846304 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Controller, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office London 1996 The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent official MOD policy.
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SLIDE 2
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SLIDE 3 1

I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

PLAN FOR THIS SESSION zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA +Introduction to PJHQ I +Distributed Joint zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA OA
  • Examples
support + Summary
  • f O A & Historical Analysis
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SLIDE 4 PRIMARY ROLE zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 0 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA a zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 2
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SLIDE 5 I . zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA CONCURRENCY - MODUS OPERANDI /zrs7 M zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA N I T R El U CONCURRENCY = MODUS OPERANDI /t77 M N zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I T R OPERATIONAL zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

7

PICTURE zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 3
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SLIDE 6 CONCURRENCY zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA = MODUS OPERANDI I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA IJ21 I
  • n A
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IJ21 IJ81 THE "ESTIMATE" LIAISON: FLEET/LAN D/STC ALLIED Has MINISTERIAL SUBMISSIONS DIRECTIVES
  • 4
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SLIDE 7 I
  • zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA
CONCURRENCY = MODUS OPERANDI zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA El CONCURRENCY = MODUS OPERANDI zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 1 , M N I T R l i w \ \ OPERATIONAL COMMAND DEPLOY SUSTAIN RECOVER n n zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I U U \ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 5
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SLIDE 8 M zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA N zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA I T R zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA U U ROLES OF THE JRDF PRESENCE - W OR LD-WIDE EVACUATION zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 6
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SLIDE 9 CURRENT OPS PJHQ WORLDWIDE ACTIVITY FROM AUG 96 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 8 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA * I Other Operations I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 7
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SLIDE 10 OPS SINCE APR 96 CYPRUS GEORGIA zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA ( , > i / KUWAIT Dee zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 96
  • Comp
com<3 OPS SINCE APR 96 (cont) Compl Comp (+ OPCOM of Overseas Commands zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 8
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SLIDE 11 I
  • I
.- zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA SCIENTIFIC/OA ROLE + zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA The primary purpose of the OA Cell is to coordinate, direct and provide appropriate scientific and OA advice to the PJHQ for joint, combined and multi- national operations; contingency and operational planning; Support Tier 3 exercises and wargames; and JW operational and tactical doctrine development OVERVIEW OF OA TASKS + Assessment of plans through wargaming, simulation and + Operations and Post Operations analysis; + Provision of scientific support to the JFC and JFHQ + Development of scenarios & warfighting concepts; + Support to JW training and doctrine development; Provision of scientific support as required to CJO. numerical analysis;
  • perations;
9
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SLIDE 12 DJOA TASKING TAKES TASKS J1 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA
  • J9: ACOS to SO2
(including OTs & CPTs) JFHQ - including J8(OA) Priorities agreed by DACOS J8(OA) with ACOS 58, and COS & CJO if necessary DJOA RESOURCING J8(OA) CORE CELL (3) AUGMENTEES zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA (3+3) WARFARE CENTRES (AWC, MWC, HQLC) CDA DERA MOD _________________________________ (including HBs) CONTRACTORS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 10
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SLIDE 13 DJOA TASKING zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA
  • DJOA TASKING =
EXAMPLE QUESTION AREAS (2) zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA +FORCE DEPLOYMENT +MEASURES OF SUCCESS/ INDICATORS +EXCLUSION ZONE ASSESSMENT +INDICATORS OF ENEMY COURSES OF ACTION (COA). 11
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SLIDE 14 DJOA QUESTIONS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA : URGENCY + zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA “Hot” planning + “Warm” & “Cold” planning + Research - to provide underpinning data & tools. DJOA: ANALYSIS LEVELS & RESPONSE TIMES + Level 1 - fastest analysis, hours + Level 2 - fast analysis, days + Level 3 - longer timeframe, weeks + Level 4 - underpinning Core Programme. zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 12
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SLIDE 15 Response Times Required for OA Answers in EX Purple Viva 96 . I zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 3 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 70 60 50 L cn zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA b 40 3 30 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 20 S (rt 10 LEVEL 1 - FASTEST ANALYSIS + zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Uses simplest techniques to correlate force sizes + Can look at the Theatre-wide build-up for the and show relative build-up of forces whole Coalition + Historical Analysis provides . . . .
  • Background awareness
  • Joint OOTW database
  • Joint Ops Cost Calculator/database
  • Joint Ops Casualty Calculator/database
13
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SLIDE 16 LEVEL 2 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA
  • FAST ANALYSIS zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA
Historical Analysis threads + Threat/Coalition deployment & our options for + Effectiveness of air attacks on threat armour + Effectiveness of attacks on infra-structure targets e.g. + Use of Op Granby Analytical Record + Use of Op Hamden Analytical Record.
  • pposing it
bridges LEVEL 3 - RATIONALE +Initial analysis from levels 1 & 2 provides fast results to tight time-scales, but more confidence can be gained by going to Level zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA 3 analysis with a longer response time. 14
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SLIDE 17 LEVEL 3 zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA
  • EXAMPLE ANALYSIS
+ zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Planning figures from Air Warfare Centre
  • Effectiveness of air strikes
  • Number of a/c required for levels of effect
Branches + Historical analysis from Air & Army Historical + Use of JANUS at CDA(Land). LEVEL 4 - Underpinning Core Programme Historical Analysis component 4 4 4 + 4 Op Purposeful (Zaire) Timeline Analysis; Shock, Surprise, Heroes, Moral Component Analysis by CDA(HLS); Continued development of Joint OOTW database; Continued emphasis on the need for war diaries International collaboration. 15
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SLIDE 18 SUMMARY zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA + zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA Insights into the use made of OA by the PJHQ, +Need for rapid access databases ... +Need for underpinning Historical Analysis programme particularly in the area of 00 TW... Evacuations, disaster relief etc. +Need for more ... zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

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T 3 aD zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA

UINT

FORCE 16