HTGR Potential Market and HTGR Potential Market and Preliminary - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
HTGR Potential Market and HTGR Potential Market and Preliminary Economics Briefing for Nuclear Energy Advisory Committee N l E Ad i C itt Phil Hildebrandt Phil Hildebrandt September 2010 gov www.inl.g [insert optional photo(s) here]
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U.S. Primary Energy Flow by Source and Sector, 2009
(Quad -- Quadrillion (1x10 15) Btu)
U.S. Primary Energy Flow by Source and Sector, 2009
(Quad -- Quadrillion (1x10 15) Btu)
U.S. Primary Energy Flow by Source and Sector, 2009
(Quad -- Quadrillion (1x10 15) Btu) U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 2009
(Million metric tons, CO
2 equivalent
AEO 2010, May 2010)
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 2009
(Million metric tons, CO
2 equivalent
AEO 2010, May 2010)
U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 2009
(Million metric tons, CO
2 equivalent
AEO 2010, May 2010) Transportation 1845 Mt Industrial Residential 1194 Mt Commerical 1034 Mt Transportation 1845 Mt Industrial Residential 1194 Mt Commerical 1034 Mt Transportation 1845 Mt Industrial Residential 1194 Mt Commerical 1034 Mt Industrial 1434 Mt
5507 Mt Total
Industrial 1434 Mt
5507 Mt Total
Industrial 1434 Mt
5507 Mt Total
1Does not include biofuels that have been blended with petroleum
—biofuels are included in “Renewable Energy."
2Excludes supplemental gaseous fuels. 3Includes less than 0.1 quadrillion Btu of coal coke net exports. 4Conventional hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar/PV, wind, an
d biomass.
5Includes industrial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and industrial electricity -only plants. 6Includes commercial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and commercial electricity -only plants. 7Electricity-only and combined -heat-and-power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity
, or electricity and heat, to the public. Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r
1Does not include biofuels that have been blended with petroleum
—biofuels are included in “Renewable Energy."
2Excludes supplemental gaseous fuels. 3Includes less than 0.1 quadrillion Btu of coal coke net exports. 4Conventional hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar/PV, wind, an
d biomass.
5Includes industrial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and industrial electricity -only plants. 6Includes commercial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and commercial electricity -only plants. 7Electricity-only and combined -heat-and-power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity
, or electricity and heat, to the public. Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r
1Does not include biofuels that have been blended with petroleum
—biofuels are included in “Renewable Energy."
2Excludes supplemental gaseous fuels. 3Includes less than 0.1 quadrillion Btu of coal coke net exports. 4Conventional hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar/PV, wind, an
d biomass.
5Includes industrial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and industrial electricity -only plants. 6Includes commercial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and commercial electricity -only plants. 7Electricity-only and combined -heat-and-power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity
, or electricity and heat, to the public. Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r
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Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2009, Tables 1.3, 2.1b -2.1f , 10.3, and 10.4. Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2009, Tables 1.3, 2.1b -2.1f , 10.3, and 10.4. Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2009, Tables 1.3, 2.1b -2.1f , 10.3, and 10.4.
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Petrochemical (170 plants in U.S. – 6.7 quads*) Petroleum Refining (137 plant in U.S. – 3.7 quads) Fertilizers/Ammonia (23 plants in U.S. – 0.3 quads NH3 production) Coal‐to‐Liquids (24 – 100,000 bpd new plants ) Project 250 GWth HTGR application NH3 production) Oil Sands/Shale (43 – 600 MWt HTGR Hydrogen Production (60 – 600 MWt HTGR Modules)
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Modules)
* Quad = 1x1015 Btu (293 MM MWth) annual energy consumption
Modules)
(25% of Process Heat & Power, including electricity)
(25% of growth in the merchant market)
(25% of projected growth in energy required to extract & upgrade bitumen)
(Reduces imports by 25% of 2009 imports of crude oil – 9.1 MMBPD)
(10% of the nuclear electrical supply increase required to achieve pending (10% of the nuclear electrical supply increase required to achieve pending Government objectives for emissions reductions by 2050)
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calculated fit: 2%
8.00 10.00 12.00
rice ($/MM Btu)
DOE EIA Energy Outlook 2008
2008 $s energy HHV
DOE EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2009
AUG09 futures
Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices exhibit high volatility HTGR Energy Prices affected only by normal
calculated fit: 2%
2.00 4.00 6.00
ty User Natural Gas P
DOE EIA Energy Outlook 2004 DOE EIA Energy Outlook 2002 DOE EIA Energy Outlook 2007
HTGR Energy Prices affected only by normal inflationary factors, (e.g., wages, material)
0.00 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year Utilit 6
CO2 emissions are reduced by ~400 million
Co-Generation & Process Heat, 110 Mt Electricity Generation, 146 Mt
metric tons by 2050; ~7%
Hydrogen Production, 16 Mt
Oil Sands, 37 Mt Coal/Biomass to Fuel & Feedstock, 80 Mt
Co-Generation & Process Heat, 2.1 Tscf
Natural gas combustion is reduced by ~7 trillion
Heat, 2.1 Tscf
Hydrogen
Oil Sands, 0.7 Tscf Electricity Generation, 3.6 Tscf
is reduced by 7 trillion scf by 2050; ~30% of U.S. consumption in 2009
Reduces the need to import oil by ~2.5 million
Production, 0.4 Tscf
p y barrels per day (on an energy equivalent basis). Outflow of US dollars reduced by $150 million per day (based on an average $60/BBL price)
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Electricity Production Price Versus Price of Natural Gas, $/Mwhe, and Carbon Credits, $/metric ton CO2eq Comparisonof Production Pricing for HTGR and CCGT Plants
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Comparing Price of Steam Generated by an HTGR and a CCGT versus Price of Natural Gas and Cost of GHG Emissions
120 140 160
e, $/MWhe
Comparison of Production Pricing for HTGR and CCGT Plants
$50/MTCO2 Cost CCGT
25 30 35
1000lbs CCGT, $50/MT CO2 Emissions Cost
80 100
Electricity Production Price HTGR CCGT No CO2 Cost
~$4/MMBtu ~$8.5/MMBtu 10 15 20
Price of Steam, $/1 HTGR CCGT, No CO2 i i
~$4/MMBtu ~$7/MMBtu 40 60 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
E Natural Gas Price, $/MMBtu
5 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Price of Natural Gas, $/MMBtu Emissions Cost
Economic Factors Economic Factors
HTGR Plant Capital Cost $1,700/KWt CCGT Capital Cost $625/KWt Debt 80% Internal Rate of Return 15% Financing Interest 8%
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Financing Interest 8% Financing Term 20 years Tax Rate 38.9%
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Gasoline Production Price versus Crude Oil Price
Conventional Crude Oil Refining versus Coal to MTG using Conventional and HTGR Integrated Processes
6.00
Comparison of Gasoline Pricing for Conventional versus HTGR Integrated Coal to Gasoline Conversion
3 3.5 4 4.5 Conventional MTG Process $50/MT CO2 C ost HTGR Integrated MTG Process ~$110/BBL ~$125/BBL
ction Price, $/gal
3.00 4.00 5.00
Peak Gasoline Price June 2008 HTGR
Price, $/gal
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 $50/MT CO2 C ost Conventional MTG Process No CO2 Cost ~$80/BBL $110/BBL
Gasoline Produ
1.00 2.00 3.00
Lowest Gasoline Price December 2008
~$70/ton
Gasoline
Economic Factors
0.5 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Crude Oil Price, $/Barrel
0.00 50 100 150 200 250
Cost of Carbon, $/ton
co o ic acto s
HTGR Plant Capital Cost $1,700/KWt CCGT Capital Cost $625/KWt Debt 80% Internal Rate of Return 15% Financing Interest 8%
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Financing Term 20 years Tax Rate 38.9%
800
Comparison of Ammonia Pricing for Conventional and HTGR Integrated Processes
~$160/ton 600 700
nia, $/ton
HTGR Hydrogen Plant
$160/ton 400 500
Price of Ammon
~$50/ton 200 300 50 100 150 200 250
Economic Factors
HTGR Plant Capital Cost $1,700/KWt CCGT Capital Cost $625/KWt Cost of carbon, $/metric ton CO2
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Debt 80% Internal Rate of Return 15% Financing Interest 8% Financing Term 20 years Tax Rate 38.9%
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