How National Urbanization Trends Will Affect Rural Transit Funding - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How National Urbanization Trends Will Affect Rural Transit Funding and “Trending Urban” Transit Systems in Georgia and the Nation after the 2020 Census

Leigh Ann Trainer Laurie A. Garrow 11/20/2019

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Outline

• What’s up with Brunswick?
• Review of urban and rural transit funding programs
• Methodology for determining future 5311 and 5307 funding
• Results
• Recommendations for future funding

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Predicted 5311 and 5307 Funding for Brunswick

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Glynn County

County 5311 Approp. 5307 Approp. 5311 Forecast 5307 Forecast 5311 Difference (Forecast – FY19) 5307 Difference (Forecast – FY19)

FY19 FY19 75% 0 mi 50% ½ mi 75% 0 mi 50% ½ mi 75% 0 mi 50% ½ mi 75% 0 mi 50% ½ mi

Glynn 204,146 667,852 192,009 160,653 720,823 660,734

• 12,137
• 43,493

52,971

• 7,118

Currently Glynn county does not tap into 5307 funding but has submitted an application to Start 5307 service by FY20

See https://www.glynncounty.org/DocumentCenter/View/61729/Draft-BATS-FY-2020-UPWP

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Review of Urban and Rural Transit Funding Regulations

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An area’s Urban and Rural classifications determine it’s eligibility for Federal Transit Funding Grants 5307 Urbanized Area Formula Grants (49 U.S.C. 5307)

• federal resources available to

urbanized areas and to governors for transit capital and operating assistance in urbanized areas 5311 Rural Area Formula Grants (49 U.S.C. 5311)

• provides capital, planning, and
• perating assistance to states to

support public transportation in rural areas

Two key regulations re: Transit funding sources:

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5307 Large Urban

Population > 200,000

• “100 bus rule”

dictates whether eligible for operating

assistance

• Sub-recipient

reports to NTD

• Must coordinate with

local MPO

5311 Rural

Population < 50,000

• Can use all 5311 funds

for operating

assistance

• State DOT reports to

NTD

5307 Small Urban

Population 50,000 – 200,000

• Can use all 5307 funds for
• perating assistance
• Eligible for small transit

intensive (STIC) funding

• Sub-recipient reports to

NTD

§ 5307 and § 5311 key details:

List of UCs Predicted to Merge with other UCs or Urban Areas List of UCs Predicted to Merge with other UCs or Urban Areas

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MAP-21 introduced the “100 Bus Rule”

MAP-21 maintains the existing criteria for use of 5307 funds for capital projects (operating expenses continue to be ineligible) in urban areas with a population greater than 200,000, while a new rule – the “100 bus rule” – has been included, allowing systems with 76-100 buses operating in peak service to use up to 50% of their 5307 funding for operating expenses and those operating 75 or fewer buses to use up to 75% for operating

• expenses. Small urbanized areas with population under 200,000 will

continue to be able to use up to 100 percent of their 5307 funding for

• perating expenses. The law preserves current eligibility of preventive

maintenance as a capital expenditure.

• ATPA MAP 21: A Guide to Transit-Related Provisions

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FAST ACT: Use of 5307 funds for operating expenses

5307 (2)

The Secretary may make grants under this section to finance the operating cost of equipment and facilities for use in public transportation, excluding rail fixed guideway, in an urbanized area with a population of not fewer than 200,000, as determined by Bureau of Census – (A) for public transportation systems that – (i)

• perate 75 or fewer buses in fixed route service or demand responsive service,

excluding ADA complementary paratransit service, during peak service hours, in an amount not to exceed 75 percent of the share of apportionment which is attributable to such systems within the urbanized area, as measured by vehicle revenue hours; or (ii) Operate a minimum of 76 buses and a maximum of 100 buses in fixed route service or demand responsive service, excluding ADA complementary paratransit service, during peak service hours, in an amount not to exceed 50 percent of the share of apportionment which is attributable to such systems within the urbanized area, as measured by vehicle revenue hours; or (… additional rules on max amount of funding)

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Table 3A used to determine vehicle revenue miles for bus systems in Georgia

How is “share of apportionment” determined?

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Start 5307 service Report (and certify) data to NTD Certified data used in FY 24 appropriations FY22 FY23 FY24

There is a “two-year lag” on getting on Table 3A

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Methodology to predict future 5311 and 5307 funding by state

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Methodology

Predict changes in population and population density (50 state regression models) Use forecasts, Table 5 FTA data values, and NTD data to replicate FY19 5311 and 5307 funding and predict future funding for these programs Identify areas at high risk for losing FTA operating funding

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Variables we use to model urban growth:

• Urban in 2000
• Closer to a urbanized area or

urbanized cluster?

• Population density
• Jobs
• Proximity to urban Areas
• Proximity to roads

Predictions created for:

• 50% probabilities and ½ mile to merge
• 75% probability and 0 miles to merge

State Regression Models of Urban Growth

15 https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/docs/Visio- 5311_Apportionment_Flowchart_%283%29.pdf

Rural Apportionment Formula (FTA)

Use model forecasts for 2020 and most recent NTD data as inputs, along with FTA data values (Table 5)

16 https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/docs/Visio- 5311_Apportionment_Flowchart_%283%29.pdf

FTA Data Values (Table 5)

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NTD Table 3A used to determine vehicle revenue miles for bus systems

Urban Apportionment Formula (FTA)

Use model forecasts for 2020 and most recent NTD data as inputs, along with FTA data values (Table 5)

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FTA Data Values (Table 5)

… (more)

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Results

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Relative 5311 Relative Funding Appropriation Should Remain Steady Under Current Rules (Good News!)

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Total 5311 Appropriation in Theory Should Decrease by 20-23%

Aggressive Forecast Conservative Forecast

Note: does not include 5340 funding

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5307 Appropriation Should Increase for Many States

Aggressive Forecast Conservative Forecast

Note 1: for urban areas spanning multiple states, we assigned funding to the first state listed on the UAZ. Note 2: does not include 5340 funding.

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Deeper Dive on the National Numbers

Funding Source (Population) Current Appropriation* Predicted Appropriation Difference % Difference 5311 rural (<50K) 629M 483M to 505M

• 124 to -146M
• 20% to -23%

5307 small urban (50K- 200K) 402M 550M to 608M 148M to 206M 37% to 51% 5307 large urban (200K-1M) 839M 1.035B to 1.044B 196M to 205M 23% to 24% 5307 large urban (1M+) 3.38B 3.00B to 3.06B

• 316M to -358M
• 9% to -11%

TOTAL 5.25B 5.13B to 5.16B

• 118M to -71M
• 1.4% to - 2.2%

Note: This does not include the 5340 growing states and high density portion. The 5340 program is currently is about 12% of the total 5311 and 5430 combined appropriation and 4% of the total 5307 and 5340 combined appropriation. In FY19, an additional $570M was appropriated to the 5340 program (to be added to both 5311 and 5307 programs).

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Georgia’s Overall Outlook

Funding Source Current Appropriation Predicted Appropriation Difference % Difference 5311 rural 21.2M 15.9M to 16.3M

• 4.9M to -5.3M
• 23% to -25%

5311 and 5340 rural 24.2M 22.0M to 23.6M

• 546K to -2.2M
• 2.3% to -8.9%

5307 and 5340 urban 101M 106M to 107M 5.28M to 6.34M 5.2% to 6.3%

Note: The 5340 program is currently is about 12% of the total 5311 and 5430 combined appropriation and 4% of the total 5307 and 5340 combined appropriation.

Georgia has one of the highest 5340 appropriations in the U.S. If this funding continues, it will likely mitigate potential losses in the 5311 program.

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High Risk Transitions from Rural to Small Urban: Georgia Case Study

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Results: 2 rural systems will transition to small urbans

2 Urban Clusters may transition to Urban Areas via Population Growth (2020 urban population estimates in our model)

• 1. Winder (in 50% model)
• 2. Carrollton (in 50% model)

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Results: 2 rural systems will merge with Savannah, which will become a large urban

Through Growth and Absorption Savannah goes to Large Urban Category 2 Urban Clusters absorbed into Savannah UAZ via Urban Expansion:

• 1. Rincon (in 50% model & 75%

model)

• 2. Buckhead (in 50% model)

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Results: Macon and Warner-Robins would merge and become a large urban, but if Grandfathering Criteria applied then would remain separate

Macon and Warner-Robins could merge Warner-Robins has no transit so it would start in the Large Urban category However, Census adopted a “grandfathering” rule in 2010 to prevent merging Urbanized Areas with existing MPOs.

29(Census 2017). Map prepared with ESRI ArcMap 10.5.

Cartersville and Gainesville would be predicted to merge if not for the 2010 “grandfathering” rule for Urbanized Areas. This rule does not apply to Urban Clusters, and there is no guarantee it will not change again in 2020.

Contiguous or near contiguous MPOs and UAs in Metro Atlanta after 2020 Census

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Urban Clusters / Urban Areas absorbed into Atlanta UAZ via Urban Expansion: Predicted in 50% growth scenarios: Winder, GA (Barrow County) Funding Source: 5311 Monroe, GA (Walton County) Funding Source: NA Watch: Jefferson, GA (Jackson, County) Funding Source: 5311 Bremen, GA (Haralson County) Funding Source: 5311 Carrollton, GA (Carroll County) Funding Source: 5311

Results: Several systems could merge with Atlanta

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Deeper Dive on the Numbers: Georgia

County FY19 5311 Appropriation 5311 Forecast Gap 75% 0 mi 50% ½ mi 75% 0 mi 50% ½ mi Barrow 356,850 102,638 62,673

• 254,212
• 294,177

Bryan 153,844 134,336

• 19,508

Carroll 586,929 241,717

• 345,212

Effingham 342,856 241,808

• 101,048

Haralson 195,205 139,926

• 55,279

Jackson 341,984 221,705

• 120,279

Walton 350,405 187,394

• 163,011

TOTAL 2,328,073 102,638 1,229,559

• 254,212
• 1,098,514

Note: This includes the 5340 growing states portion.

More likely forecast

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Georgia’s 5311 Service

FY17 5311 Appropriation # Counties Offering 5311 Service # Counties Not Offering 5311 Service % Counties Not Offering 5311 Service

25K – 49K 4 6 60% 50K – 99K 25 13 34% 100K – 199K 53 19 26% 200K – 299K 18 3 14% 300K or more 11 2 15%

Economies of scale appear to kick in around $100K

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Who is Providing 5307 Service in Georgia?

Economies of scale appear to kick in around $1M

County FY19 § 5307 Appropriation County FY19 § 5307 Appropriation

Fulton 25,680,194 Hall 2,194,364 DeKalb 19,785,158 Floyd 1,861,312 Clayton 7,268,028 Richmond 1,702,365 Gwinnett 6,621,237 Henry 1,231,829 Cobb 6,500,720 Bartow 1,220,368 Chatham 3,646,778 Cherokee 1,185,905 Muscogee 3,541,921 Dougherty 1,172,357 Bibb 2,412,707 Douglas 1,134,652 Clarke 2,391,818 Liberty 723,315

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5307 Appropriations for Counties Only Providing 5311 Service

County FY19 § 5311 Appropriation County FY19 § 5311 Appropriation

Lowndes 1,076,358 Walton 153,032 Whitfield 952,223 Murray 133,565 Forsyth 922,057 Carroll 123,215 Glynn 667,852 Peach 66,984 Paulding 649,216 Bryan 53,704 Columbia 615,924 Jones 53,219 Coweta 485,128 Jackson 41,301 Catoosa 269,716 Long 33,585 Spalding 231,447 Madison 25,064 Walker 183,474 Dawson 22,585 Lee 167,091

Note: Only those with appropriations greater than $22K shown. Includes 5340.

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Recommendations

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• Get rid of the 100 bus rule, allow areas operating in non-urbanized or

former non-urbanized areas to use federal funds for operating (will also support innovation like micro-transit)

• If you do keep 100 bus rule, allow 5311 VRMs reclassified in urban areas

to be used in appropriation formula to eliminate the two-year gap

• Restructure regulation with the “big picture” in mind – we have a lot of

counties eligible for 5307 funding that aren’t tapping into that funding until they reach $1M in appropriation

Our Recommendations

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Appendices in Final Report (50 pages, Feb 2020 release date)

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Appendices

• Forecasts of future 5311 funding for each state
• Forecasts of future 5307 funding for
• Each large urban area in U.S. with population 1M+
• Each large urban area in U.S. with population 200K – 1M
• Each small urban areas in U.S. with population 50K – 200K
• List of urban clusters (UCs) predicted to merge with other UCs or urban

areas in each state or urban areas for each state

• Conservative and aggressive forecasts used to create lists
• Forecasts of 5311 and 5307 funding (includes 5340) for counties in Georgia

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Questions

Contact information:

Ltrainer@dot.ga.gov Laurie.Garrow@ce.gatech.edu