International Congress of Mathematicians 2018 Discussion Panel Tuesday, August 7 How Can Mathematicians Contribute to Planetary Challenges?
Our Panel Amit Apte, International Center for Theoretical Sciences, India Pedro Leite da Silva Dias, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo, Brazil Maria J. Esteban, Ceremade Paris-Dauphine, France Edward Lungu, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Botswana Claudia Sagastizábal, UNICAMP, Brazil Moderator: Hans Engler, Georgetown University, USA mathplanetarychallenges.wordpress.com ICM TV video at bit.ly/2OQ6oIP
What are Planetary Challenges? ● Challenges beyond national interests ● Goals beyond national capabilities ● Problems beyond single scientific disciplines ● Issues involving social and political aspects ● The “doughnut”: Finding just and safe space between social needs and environmental constraints ● Mathematics is an international scientific enterprise with universal applications and therefore has a role to play!
Food and Water ● Out of 7 billion people 3 billion are malnourished – 2 billion adults are obese – The intersection is nontrivial – ● An extra billion people by 2030 with more dietary demands – ● About 30% of all food is wasted ● Competing demands for fresh water Drinking, sanitation, cooking – Agriculture, aquaculture – Industrial use, energy production –
Energy and Climate ● Greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase Atmospheric CO 2 : Now 410 ppm – ● Renewable energy sources are disrupting markets Wind energy: US$ 30-60 / MWh – Coal energy: US$ 60-140 / MWh – ● Global climate projections for different scenarios with ¼ o spatial resolution – Many uncertainties remain –
Health ● Malnutrition 1 million child deaths per year – 200 million children under 5 are too – short or underweight for their age ● Chronic diseases and epidemics Cancer and cardiovascular diseases – HIV/AIDS, diarrhea, TB, malaria – ● Emerging diseases and Superbugs Zika and ebola – Antibiotic resistance –
Communities ● 1 in 8 people live in mega-cities Rio is #45, Seoul (ICM 2014) is #18, – Hyderabad (ICM 2010) is #41 ● Traffic, migration, transportation Economic opportunity – … and inequality – ● Worldwide virtual communities and social networks
Life on Land and in Oceans ● Biodiversity How many species have we – not discovered yet? ● Food Webs Scales ranging from – microscopic to large ● Ocean acidification and pollution Garbage patches in the – North Pacific Ocean
UN Sustainable Development Goals 2015 ● International goals that are shaping decisions and planning … and therefore also – research, funding, and data collection ● Mathematicians working in this area should pay attention … some are already being – recognized and consulted
Mathematics of Planet Earth (MPE) ● MPE 2013 + with events and activities around the World ● SIAM activity group on MPE ● Section of European Geosciences Union on MPE ● Math and Climate Research Network ● Doctoral Training Programs in the UK and Netherlands ● Book series etc. ● Look for the MPE logo! mathplanetarychallenges.wordpress.com ICM TV video at bit.ly/2OQ6oIP
Questions for you Have you done mathematical work related to one of these topics? If yes, please raise your hand.
Questions for you Please raise your hand for the area(s) that are most important to you. ● Food and Water ● Health ● Energy and Climate ● Communities ● Life
Questions for you Do you know how to find partners or opportunities to work on one of these areas? If yes, please raise your hand.
Question 1 for all panelists What are the roles that the mathematical sciences can play in addressing planetary challenges?
Question 2 for all panelists Where are there new opportunities for mathematical research and interdisciplinary work arising from planetary challenges? New and exciting mathematics?
Question 3 for all panelists How is mathematical modeling done in work on planetary challenges?
3. How is mathematical modeling done in work on planetary challenges? How does it differ from modeling in more traditional areas? Operational weather/climate prediction needs really fast codes to provide users with • information in real time. =>. Dimension of state vectors. (X) is very high ( > O(10 9-10 going to 10 11-12 ) • Extremely high levels of massive parallelization; • Up to a certain point, it is a computational problem; • Often requires new algorithms • Need to deal with the complexity associated to the multiscaling /multiphysics in climate • models: Challenge for data assimilation • Challenge concerning uncertainty evaluation • Introducing Human Dimensions in Climate Modeling: coupling global (regional) economy • models to climate models -> impact on emissions of greenhouse gases. (game theory – multiagent modeling etc. )
Great improvement of weather forecasts Model uncertainty arises from stochastic, unresolved processes
How can we predict weather beyond 10 days? - effect of slow forcing in Lorenz’s model
Question 4 How can mathematical work lead to recommendations and decisions that benefit all? Are there success stories? How to communicate with decision makers?
Question 5 How to engage students? How to train the next generation of mathematical scientists for work on planetary challenges?
Question 6 How use work on planetary challenges to reach out to the wider public? Can we use this to show that mathematical work is relevant and accessible?
Questions from the Audience Please use a microphone to ask your question Please identify yourself Please keep your question short and concise mathplanetarychallenges.wordpress.com ICM TV video at bit.ly/2OQ6oIP
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