How Can Mathematicians Contribute to Planetary Challenges? Our - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

International Congress of Mathematicians 2018 Discussion Panel Tuesday, August 7

How Can Mathematicians Contribute to Planetary Challenges?

Our Panel

Amit Apte, International Center for Theoretical Sciences, India Pedro Leite da Silva Dias, Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, Sao Paulo, Brazil Maria J. Esteban, Ceremade Paris-Dauphine, France Edward Lungu, Botswana International University of Science and Technology, Botswana Claudia Sagastizábal, UNICAMP, Brazil Moderator: Hans Engler, Georgetown University, USA mathplanetarychallenges.wordpress.com ICM TV video at bit.ly/2OQ6oIP

What are Planetary Challenges?

• Challenges beyond national interests
• Goals beyond national capabilities
• Problems beyond single scientific

disciplines

• Issues involving social and political aspects
• The “doughnut”: Finding just and safe space

between social needs and environmental constraints

• Mathematics is an international scientific

enterprise with universal applications and therefore has a role to play!

Food and Water

• Out of 7 billion people

–

3 billion are malnourished

–

2 billion adults are obese

–

The intersection is nontrivial

• An extra billion people by 2030

–

with more dietary demands

• About 30% of all food is wasted
• Competing demands for fresh water

–

Drinking, sanitation, cooking

–

Agriculture, aquaculture

–

Industrial use, energy production

Energy and Climate

• Greenhouse gas emissions continue to

increase

–

Atmospheric CO2: Now 410 ppm

• Renewable energy sources are

disrupting markets

–

Wind energy: US$ 30-60 / MWh

–

Coal energy: US$ 60-140 / MWh

• Global climate projections for different

scenarios

–

with ¼o spatial resolution

–

Many uncertainties remain

Health

• Malnutrition

–

1 million child deaths per year

–

200 million children under 5 are too short or underweight for their age

• Chronic diseases and epidemics

–

Cancer and cardiovascular diseases

–

HIV/AIDS, diarrhea, TB, malaria

• Emerging diseases and

Superbugs

–

Zika and ebola

–

Antibiotic resistance

Communities

• 1 in 8 people live in mega-cities

–

Rio is #45, Seoul (ICM 2014) is #18, Hyderabad (ICM 2010) is #41

• Traffic, migration, transportation

–

Economic opportunity

–

… and inequality

• Worldwide virtual communities and

social networks

Life on Land and in Oceans

• Biodiversity

–

How many species have we not discovered yet?

• Food Webs

–

Scales ranging from microscopic to large

• Ocean acidification and

pollution

–

Garbage patches in the North Pacific Ocean

UN Sustainable Development Goals 2015

• International goals that are

shaping decisions and planning

–

… and therefore also research, funding, and data collection

• Mathematicians working in

this area should pay attention

–

… some are already being recognized and consulted

Mathematics of Planet Earth (MPE)

• MPE 2013 + with events and activities around the

World

• SIAM activity group on MPE
• Section of European Geosciences Union on MPE
• Math and Climate Research Network
• Doctoral Training Programs in the UK and

Netherlands

• Book series etc.
• Look for the MPE logo!

mathplanetarychallenges.wordpress.com ICM TV video at bit.ly/2OQ6oIP

Questions for you

Have you done mathematical work related to one of these topics? If yes, please raise your hand.

Questions for you

Please raise your hand for the area(s) that are most important to you.

• Food and Water
• Health
• Energy and Climate
• Communities
• Life

Questions for you

Do you know how to find partners

• r opportunities to work on one of

these areas? If yes, please raise your hand.

Question 1 for all panelists

What are the roles that the mathematical sciences can play in addressing planetary challenges?

Question 2 for all panelists

Where are there new opportunities for mathematical research and interdisciplinary work arising from planetary challenges? New and exciting mathematics?

Question 3 for all panelists

How is mathematical modeling done in work on planetary challenges?

• 3. How is mathematical modeling done in work on planetary challenges?

How does it differ from modeling in more traditional areas?

• Operational weather/climate prediction needs really fast codes to provide users with

information in real time. =>.

• Dimension of state vectors. (X) is very high ( > O(109-10 going to 1011-12)
• Extremely high levels of massive parallelization;
• Up to a certain point, it is a computational problem;
• Often requires new algorithms
• Need to deal with the complexity associated to the multiscaling /multiphysics in climate

models:

• Challenge for data assimilation
• Challenge concerning uncertainty evaluation
• Introducing Human Dimensions in Climate Modeling: coupling global (regional) economy

models to climate models -> impact on emissions of greenhouse gases. (game theory – multiagent modeling etc. )

Great improvement of weather forecasts Model uncertainty arises from stochastic, unresolved processes

How can we predict weather beyond 10 days?

• effect of slow forcing in Lorenz’s model

Question 4

How can mathematical work lead to recommendations and decisions that benefit all? Are there success stories? How to communicate with decision makers?

Question 5

How to engage students? How to train the next generation of mathematical scientists for work on planetary challenges?

Question 6

How use work on planetary challenges to reach out to the wider public? Can we use this to show that mathematical work is relevant and accessible?

Questions from the Audience

Please use a microphone to ask your question Please identify yourself Please keep your question short and concise

mathplanetarychallenges.wordpress.com ICM TV video at bit.ly/2OQ6oIP