Hotzone GIS analysis for targeting surveys for Phytophthora ramorum, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Hotzone GIS analysis for targeting surveys for Phytophthora ramorum, causal agent of Sudden Oak Death

Roger Magarey, Glenn Fowler, APHIS-CPHST; Manuel Colunga (MSU)

Hotzone GIS Analysis

• What is GIS Hotzone analysis
• Examples
• Crude SOD analysis
• Future Hotzone analysis tools

Hotzone Analysis

• Mapping the

introduction potential

• f the pathogen is an

important but difficult element for completing the triangle and implementing the hotzone GIS analysis.

Hotzone Definitions

• HOT ZONE AREA

Review supporting documentation which identifies known infested material that enters a specific area within your state (i.e. marble wholesale warehouse)

• SECONDARY SHIPPING ZONE AREA

Identify those areas that receive material from known infested suppliers (i.e. nursery stock received from an infested nursery)

• TERTIARY AREA

Areas that have high potential for possible introduction not based on actual infested material received (i.e. sea container storage yard)

Source J. Messineo APHIS.

Source Frank Sapio et al. USFS

Draft

Source Marla Downing, USFS

Susceptibility Risk: Sirex noctilio

SOD Hotzone Analysis Circa 2004

To create a model that will rank US states in terms of relative risk for sudden oak death incursion. To create a risk index stratified by state based on shipment quantity, climate, host strength, and economic potential. Each sub-index is assigned a value between zero and one. The overall index is the multiplicative product of each index.

Shipments Shipments

Shipments are based on 5 nurseries

Relative Shipments Relative Shipments

Shipments are based on 5 nurseries

Sudden Oak Death Infection > 60 days

Climate

Wetness > 12 h

Relative climate Relative climate

Relative host strength Relative host strength

Relative host strength Relative host strength

Shrub data was not used in this analyses

Relative host strength Relative host strength

Relative economic strength Relative economic strength

Overall Risk Overall Risk

APHIS Hotzone Architecture

JMR 6/1/05

Decision Perspective

Analytical Tools

NAPIS Data

Traps Personnel Other Materials Habitat Model

Tables, Maps Graphs

Resource Allocation Box

PPQ 309, 429,523 Sales Genie Foreign Trade Data ATS SQL Data Analytical Tools Modeling Tools

Hotzone NAPPFAST

Tables, Maps Graphs

National Screen

PDA PDA PDA

Regional Screen State Screen National Program Managers Regional Program Managers Pest Survey Specialists State Plant Health Directors Plant Regulatory Officers

Commodity Flow Survey Other Other

Data Sourcing Data Management Analysis Decision Making

Commodity volume and distribution within the United States Data on shipments: domestic destination or port of exit, commodity, value, weight, mode(s) of transportation, the date on which the shipment Commodity flow survey (electronic) CFS Locations of Distributors within United States. Address of importers and distributors. Commercial sales databases Sales Genie Commerce Pinpointing trap locations with current

• r recent historical

data Restricted to users with security clearance. Queries or reports could be dumped into system

• n a periodic basis. Data queries could include

commodity, importer address, shipment numbers. AUTOMATED TARGETING SYSTEM (ATS) ATS Customs i) Identify pest pathways 1) Violation/pest found (i.e. snail, bark beetle, bark contamination), 2) Shipper name and country of

• rigin and 3) Recipient address.

Emergency action notification (Lotus notes) 523 i) Identify pest pathways Identifies pathways requiring treatment Fumigation database (Electronic) 429 i) Identifies pest association with imported commodity. ii) Pest interception volume and distribution Taxonomic ID of pest, commodity port. APHIS PPQ stores its reportable pests from all pathways (rail, air, sea, land, and inspection stations). It is used to determine what pests are found on what commodities, seasonality and frequency of pests. Pest interceptions (electronic) 309A PPQ Application Information Description Database

2) Identify, document and prioritize databases for use within the pest detection inf national, regional and state scales.

Top Hits National Regional Picks Hot Zone Local Host Location Habitat Pathways Hot Zones

Allocated Resources Survey $ 426,000 Type 1 66,500 Type 2 43,400 Type 3 23,000 Diag $ 567,000 Type 1 142,000 Type 2 59,000 Person $ 900,000 Group 1 750,000 Group 2 35,000 Equip $ 375,000 Type 1 225,000 Type 2 57,900 National

Decision Products

Top Hits National Regional Picks Hot Zone Local Host Location Habitat Pathways Hot Zones

Allocated Resources Survey $ 426,000 Type 1 66,500 Type 2 43,400 Type 3 23,000 Diag $ 567,000 Type 1 142,000 Type 2 59,000 Person $ 900,000 Group 1 750,000 Group 2 35,000 Equip $ 375,000 Type 1 225,000 Type 2 57,900 National

Top Hits National Regional Picks Hot Zone Local Host Location Habitat Pathways Hot Zones

Allocated Resources Survey $ 426,000 Type 1 66,500 Type 2 43,400 Type 3 23,000 Diag $ 567,000 Type 1 142,000 Type 2 59,000 Person $ 900,000 Group 1 750,000 Group 2 35,000 Equip $ 375,000 Type 1 225,000 Type 2 57,900 National

SOD Hotzone Analysis

Adding the introduction potential of the pathogen is an important element in the modeling and risk analysis process APHIS is attempting to create a web site for automating the creation of risk maps for invasive pests based on climate suitability, hosts and introduction potential Help wanted!