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History Shaping the Future: Presentation Title Benchmarking and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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History Shaping the Future: Presentation Title Benchmarking and Performance Trends in the Hotel Sector for Strategic Decision Making Subtitle Elizabeth Randall Winkle Managing Director, STR Global Date and Location Filte Ireland Industry

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Presentation Title

Subtitle

Date and Location

History Shaping the Future:

Benchmarking and Performance Trends in the Hotel Sector for Strategic Decision Making

Elizabeth Randall Winkle Managing Director, STR Global Fáilte Ireland Industry Breakfast Briefing 2 October 2012

STR Global Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited

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Global Overview – mixed results Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new Supply Focus on Ireland– recovery Pipeline – Europe Forecast – what does the future hold?

Agenda

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Europe €

YE 09 YE 10 YE11 YTD12

  • 16.7%

+9.9% +5.8% +5.3%

Asia Pacific $

YE 09 YE 10 YE 11 YTD12

  • 20.0%

+17.5% +8.8% +3.3%

North America $

YE 09 YE 10 YE11 YTD12

  • 17.0% +6.0%

+8.0% +6.8%

RevPAR % change

Middle East & Africa $

YE 09 YE 10 YE11 YTD12 Middle East

  • 19.4%
  • 6.3% +2.9% +8.9%
  • N. Africa
  • 11.9% +11.7% -36.3% +10.5%
  • S. Africa
  • 13.4% +12.7%
  • 0.6% - 3.6%

Global RevPAR

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Moderate Demand growth w/ muted supply growth

  • 2%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Europe € Middle East North America Asia Pacific

Year to date 2012, YOY % change, supply, demand, revPAR USD$

SUPPLY D E M A N D

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RGI almost to 1.0

RGI Index on YTD Aug 2008, US dollars, only Europe in Euros 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 YTD Aug 07 YTD Aug 08 YTD Aug 09 YTD Aug 10 YTD Aug 11 YTD Aug 12

Middle East Europe North America Asia Pacific

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Asia Pacific

Aug’12 $139 $110 $115 $120 $125 $130 $135 $140 $145 Feb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 ADR $ Sep’08 $141

Dec’09 $117

  • 17%

+18.8% 15 months 33 months

Total AP, ADR US$, Jan 08 – Aug 12

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Middle East & Africa

$135 $140 $145 $150 $155 $160 $165 Feb 08 May 08 Aug 08 Nov 08 Feb 09 May 09 Aug 09 Nov 09 Feb 10 May 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Feb 11 May 11 Aug 11 Nov 11 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 ADR $

14 months 23 months

Jan’09 $156

  • 4%

Total MEA, ADR US$, Jan 08 – Aug 12

Feb’10 $150 Jan’12 $163

+9%

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Europe € - taking longer to recover

Total Europe, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD 2012

90.00 92.00 94.00 96.00 98.00 100.00 102.00 104.00 106.00 108.00 110.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2 0 1 2

  • 13%

23 months Apr ’08 €107 Feb ’10 €93 +9.6% 29 months July ‘12 €102

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$84.66 $83.62 $82.54 $82.67 $86.19 $91.04 $97.82 $104.32 $107.40 $98.07 $98.06 $101.70 $106.15 $111.01

$84.66 $87.07 $88.45 $90.46 $92.87 $96.02 $99.12 $101.94 $105.85 $105.48 $107.21 $110.59 $112.91 $115.29

$80 $90 $100 $110 $120

Nominal ADR Yr 2000, Grown by CPI

If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year…

Total US Room Rates

Actual vs. Inflation Adjusted 2000 – 2013F

Note: 2011 & 2012 CPI forecast from Blue Chip Economic Indicators

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Global Overview – mixed results Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new Supply Focus on Ireland– recovery Pipeline – Europe Forecast – what does the future hold?

Agenda

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Europe in detail

11

YTD 2012 Occ ADR RevPAR Total 65% €104 €67 Eastern 58% €91 €53 Northern 69% €99 €68 Southern 61% €102 €62 Western 65% €116 €75

9% 36% 26% 29% Sample rooms

Eastern Northern Southern Western

YTD Occ ADR RevPAR Top 65% €169 €110 Middle 65% €88 €57 Lower 66% €61 €40 Jan-July 2012

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  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Amsterdam Athens Barcelona Berlin Brussels Budapest Dublin Helsinki Istanbul Lisbon London Madrid Moscow Paris Prague Rome Vienna Warsaw Zurich Occupancy ADR

Selected European Cities

2012 YTD, %chg, Occ and ADR (local currency)

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London high Occ and Paris with high ADR

Jan-Aug2012

€0 €50 €100 €150 €200 €250 €300 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Occupancy ADR €

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10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 65,000,000 75,000,000 85,000,000 95,000,000 105,000,000 115,000,000 125,000,000 135,000,000 Jan-99 Aug-99 Mar-00 Oct-00 May-01 Dec-01 Jul-02 Feb-03 Sep-03 Apr-04 Nov-04 Jun-05 Jan-06 Aug-06 Mar-07 Oct-07 May-08 Dec-08 Jul-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Apr-11 Nov-11 Jun-12 Supply Demand RevPAR (€)

European long-term view

Seasonal adjusted supply, demand (# monthly rooms), RevPAR

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  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Occupancy ADR

European long-term view

YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR €

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Spotlight on downturns

YOY percentage change for occupancy and ADR €

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09

  • 5

5 10 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Occupancy ADR

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Global Overview – mixed results Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new Supply Focus on Ireland– on the recovery road Pipeline – Europe Forecast – what does the future hold?

Agenda

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Dublin – revPAR growth just surpassed demand

2012 YTD Rolling 12 month supply ( # monthly rooms ), demand, revPAR (Euros €)

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Dublin – ADR on the road to recovery

Dublin, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD August 2012

Jan ’08 €109.16 Dec’10 €77.46 +11.1% 20 months Aug ’12 €86.06

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Cork – stable supply & demand & rising revPAR

2012 YTD Rolling 12 month supply ( # monthly rooms ), demand, revPAR (Euros €)

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Cork – rate on the recovery highway

Cork, ADR Euros €, 12 MMA 2008 – YTD August 2012

Aug ’08 €93.32 Aug ‘12 €81.26 Jun ‘10 €69.39 26 months +17.1%

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Irish markets – encouraging growth

Jan-August 2012, %chg, Occ and ADR (Euros €)

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Global Overview – mixed results Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new Supply Focus on Ireland– recovery Pipeline – Europe Forecast – what does the future hold?

Agenda

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Pipeline - Europe

30.50% 13.59% 11.18% 5.22% 3.75% 3.63%

Pipeline share

United Kingdom Russia Germany Turkey France Italy

July 2012, pipeline share

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Global Overview – mixed results Spotlight on Europe – stabilising demand, muted new Supply Focus on Ireland– recovery Pipeline – Europe Forecast – what does the future hold?

Agenda

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Dublin – Annual Trends and Forecast by Year

Euros € currency as of August 2012 forecast

  • 25.0%
  • 20.0%
  • 15.0%
  • 10.0%
  • 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Trends - Percent Change from Last Year

Occupancy ADR RevPAR

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Dublin – what do the next three quarters hold?

Euros € currency as of August 2012 forecast Dublin

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Dublin – YE 2012 and 2013 forecast

Euros € currency as of August 2012 forecast Dublin

Annual P Annual Perf erfor

  • rmance

mance Occupa Occupanc ncy y ADR ADR RevP vPAR AR Year % % Change Euro - € % Change Euro - € % Change Forecast(f) 2012 f 71.6 0.5% 86.01 5.4% 61.56 5.9% 2013 f 70.1

  • 2.0%

85.57

  • 0.5%

60.00

  • 2.5%
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Forecast – Selected Cities

2012 RevPAR forecast % chg, local currency as per August 2012 edition

Declines expected Growth expected Athens Amsterdam London Madrid Barcelona Moscow Regional UK Berlin Prague Milan Brussels Paris Luxury & Upper Upscale Zurich Budapest Rome Copenhagen Vienna Dublin Warsaw

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Expect Slowing Eurozone GDP / Demand % Change

*Eurozone Demand & GDP % Change, Quarterly 2004 – 2014F GDP Source: Oxford Economics

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STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied.

Contact details

Elizabeth Randall Winkle 0207 922 1930 ewinkle@strglobal.com www.strglobal.com You can follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn