Higher Education in the U.S. and Virginia JEREMY P. MARTIN, PH.D. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Some Current Trends in Higher Education in the U.S. and Virginia JEREMY P. MARTIN, PH.D. COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY AUDITORS OF VIRGINIA CONFERENCE MAY 7, 2019 1 Some Current Trends in Higher Education Increasing Confidence in Institutional
JEREMY P. MARTIN, PH.D. COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY AUDITORS OF VIRGINIA CONFERENCE MAY 7, 2019
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Increasing Confidence in Institutional Financial Viability Shifting Sources of Institutional Funding Trends in Enrollment
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52% 56% 59% 63% 63% 66% 50% 39% 48% 52% 53% 57% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Inside Higher Education’s 2019 Survey of College and University Presidents
Presidents' Confidence That Their Institution Will Be Financially Stable in the Next Five and 10 Years (2019 Survey)
Next 5 Years Next 10 Years
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66% 66% 66% 81% 60% 63% 65% 58% 57% 52% 60% 61% 50% 49% 50% 64% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% All Public Private Nonprofit Doctoral Master's/Bacc. Assoc. Doctoral/Master's Bacc. All Institutions, by Sector Public Private Nonprofit Source: Inside Higher Education’s 2019 Survey of College and University Presidents
Presidents' Confidence That Their Institution Will Be Financially Stable in the Next Five and 10 Years by Institution Type (2019 Survey)
Next 5 Years Next 10 Years
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53% 47% 57% 68% 53% 44% 62% 54% 50% 54% 46% 64% 52% 52% 49% 44% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% All Public Private Nonprofit Doctoral Master's/Bacc. Assoc. Doctoral/Master's Bacc. All Institutions, by Sector Public Private Nonprofit Sources: Inside Higher Education’s 2018 Survey of College and University Presidents and 2018 Survey of College and University Business Officers
Presidents' vs. Business Officers’ Confidence That Their Institution Will Be Financially Stable in the Next 10 Years by Institution Type (2018)
Presidents Business Officers
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Overall, presidents’ confidence in their institution’s financial viability has been increasing in recent years – both at 5-yr. and 10-yr. outlooks Public doctoral institution presidents have the greatest confidence in financial viability in the next five years. Private baccalaureate institution presidents are more confident in their financial viability over a 10-yr. horizon than the next five years. Private institution business officers are less confident than their presidents in the institution’s financial viability over the long term (2018 results).
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$8,200 $8,307 $8,578 $8,671 $8,997 $9,290 $9,533 $9,493 $9,765 $9,405 $8,712 $8,141 $8,077 $8,481 $8,695 $8,848 $8,265 $7,690 $7,360 $6,689 $6,820 $7,155 $7,454 $7,650 $7,841 $7,853 $3,657 $3,785 $3,884 $4,018 $4,075 $4,101 $4,105 $3,916 $4,060 $4,074 $4,168 $4,385 $4,551 $4,854 $4,934 $4,898 $4,969 $5,218 $5,400 $5,876 $6,159 $6,335 $6,524 $6,696 $6,786 $6,788 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dollars per FTE Public FTE Enrollment (Millions)
UNITED STATES PUBLIC FTE ENROLLMENT AND EDUCATIONAL APPROPRIATIONS PER FTE, FY 1993-2018
EDUCATIONAL APPROPRIATIONS PER FTE NET TUITION REVENUE PER FTE PUBLIC FTE ENROLLMENT NOTES: Data adjusted for inflation using the Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA). Full-time equivalent (FTE) enrollment equates student credit hours to full-time, academic year students, but excludes medical students. Educational appropriations are a measure of state and local support available for public higher education operating expenses including ARRA funds, and exclude appropriations for independent institutions, financial aid for students attending independent institutions, research, hospitals, and medical education. Net tuition revenue is calculated by taking the gross amount of tuition and fees, less state and institutional financial aid, tuition waivers or discounts, and medical student tuition and fees. Net tuition revenue used for capital debt service is included in the net tuition revenue figures above. SOURCE: State Higher Education Executive Officers Association
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$6,481 $6,517 $6,661 $6,814 $7,265 $7,408 $7,803 $8,575 $9,009 $8,649 $6,857 $6,221 $6,552 $6,721 $7,312 $7,009 $6,734 $5,930 $5,992 $4,808 $5,018 $5,168 $5,236 $5,379 $5,936 $5,701 $4,763 $5,120 $5,225 $5,418 $5,295 $5,136 $4,948 $4,385 $4,290 $4,166 $5,097 $5,387 $5,959 $6,080 $6,100 $6,367 $6,692 $6,848 $7,373 $8,744 $8,315 $8,065 $8,544 $9,443 $9,498 $9,720 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Dollars per FTE Public FTE Enrollment (Thousands)
VIRGINIA PUBLIC FTE ENROLLMENT AND EDUCATIONAL APPROPRIATIONS PER FTE, FY 1993-2018
EDUCATIONAL APPROPRIATIONS PER FTE NET TUITION REVENUE PER FTE PUBLIC FTE ENROLLMENT NOTES: Data adjusted for inflation using the Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA). Full-time equivalent (FTE) enrollment equates student credit hours to full-time, academic year students, but excludes medical students. Educational appropriations are a measure of state and local support available for public higher education operating expenses including ARRA funds, and exclude appropriations for independent institutions, financial aid for students attending independent institutions, research, hospitals, and medical education. Net tuition revenue is calculated by taking the gross amount of tuition and fees, less state and institutional financial aid, tuition waivers or discounts, and medical student tuition and fees. Net tuition revenue used for capital debt service is included in the net tuition revenue figures above. SOURCE: State Higher Education Executive Officers Association
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Tuition and fees are revenues from all tuition and fees assessed against students (net of refunds and discounts & allowances) for educational purposes. Sales and services of auxiliary enterprises are revenues (net of discounts and allowances such as scholarships) generated by auxiliary enterprises that exist to furnish a service to students, faculty, or staff, and that charge a fee that is directly related to the cost of the service (e.g., residence halls, food services, student health services, intercollegiate athletics, college unions, college stores, and movie theaters). Total operating revenues is the sum of all operating revenues. They result from providing services and producing and delivering goods.
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State appropriations are amounts received by the institution through acts of a state legislative body, except grants and contracts and capital appropriations. Funds reported in this category are for meeting current operating expenses, not for specific projects or programs. Total non-operating revenues represents the sum of all revenues generated from non-exchange transactions.
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26% 41% 24% 52% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% State Appropriations Tuition and Fees + Auxiliary Enterprises Percent of Total Operating and Non-Operating Revenues Source: Author’s Calculations from U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), 2017-18, Finance Component. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter on May 4, 20
Percentage of Total Operating and Non-Operating Revenues by Selected Source at Public, 4-yr. Institutions, FY2017
U.S. Virginia
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In the U.S., educational appropriations for higher education peaked in 2001 – on an inflation- adjusted basis and remain well below that level as of 2018. This is also the case in Virginia. In the U.S., enrollment in public higher education peaked in 2012 and has since declined/plateaued. This is also the case in Virginia, though the enrollment peak came in 2011. In the U.S., student-driven revenues are increasingly the primary source of institutional income. This is also the case in Virginia.
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98,909 141,591 23,044 33,204 121,953 174,795 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Author’s Calculations from State Council of Higher Education, E2: Fall Headcount Enrollment (1992 thru Current Year)
Headcount Enrollment at Virginia Public, 4-yr. Institutions
In-State Students Out-of-State Students
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21% 34% 38% 46% 59% 89% 94%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% NSU VSU UVA-W RU CNU LU ODU VMI W&M VT UVA UMW VCU GMU JMU Source: Author’s Calculations from State Council of Higher Education, E2: Fall Headcount Enrollment (1992 thru Current Year)
Change in In-State Undergraduate Headcount Enrollment from Max/Min Value since 1992
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0% NSU VSU UVA-W RU CNU LU ODU VMI Source: Author’s Calculations from State Council of Higher Education, E2: Fall Headcount Enrollment (1992 thru Current Year)
Change in 2018 Undergraduate Enrollment from Peak Enrollment (since 1992)
In-State Total
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1% 2% 5% 5% 6% 11% 17% 28%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% NSU VSU RU UMW UVA-W ODU CNU VCU LU VMI W&M UVA JMU VT GMU Source: Author’s Calculations from State Council of Higher Education, E2: Fall Headcount Enrollment (1992 thru Current Year)
Change in In-State Undergraduate Headcount Enrollment 2011-2018
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5,470 5,494 4,628 66,067 84,962 85,656 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 High School Graduates (n) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016.
Projected Virginia High School Graduates by School Type
Private Public
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45,339 49,258 47,086 14,930 19,105 17,716 2,342 10,996 16,602 3,311 6,649 9,303 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Public High School Graduates (n) Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates, 2016.
Projected Virginia Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity
White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian/AK Native
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67.2% 74.3% 49.7% 71.3% 81.6% 51.4% 38.0% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: State Council for Higher Education in Virginia, B08H: Admissions History
In-State Acceptance Rate In-State Yield Rate Declining Enrollment Univ.-Acceptance Declining Enrollment Univ.-Yield
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39.4% 22.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% <800 800 to 890 900 to 990 1000 to 1090 1100 to 1190 1200 to 1290 1300 to 1390 1400 to 1490 1500 to 1600 Percent of Enrolling First-Time Students Source: State Council for Higher Education in Virginia, B12: SAT Scores by Residence Status
SAT Score Distributions of First-Time Students, 2017-18
IS - All VA Public Univ. OOS - Selective VA Public Univ
At Virginia’s selective public universities, more than 60% of out-of- state students scored above 1400.
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Enrollment at Virginia’s public, four-year institutions has grown significantly since 1992, with some plateauing since roughly 2012. This growth has been experienced differently among the respective institutions, with some seeing declines from peak enrollments while others have grown rapidly. Projections for high school graduates in Virginia is relatively stable in the coming years, indicating the competition for in-state students may intensify. The demographics of Virginia’s public high school graduates anticipates growing Asian and Hispanic/Latinx populations, relative stability among other populations. Virginia’s selective universities are particularly able to attract talented out-of-state students to the commonwealth, which may become an asset should competition for in-state students intensify.
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