High Resolution Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum Clay Tabor, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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High Resolution Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum Clay Tabor, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 14, 2022 174 likes •489 views

High Resolution Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum Clay Tabor, Isabel Montaez, Marcus Lfverstrm, Jessica Oster, Barbara Wortham, Cameron de Wet NCSA Blue Waters Symposium I use Blue Waters to simulate past climates! Haywood

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SLIDE 1

High Resolution Simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum

Clay Tabor, Isabel Montañez, Marcus Löfverström, Jessica Oster, Barbara Wortham, Cameron de Wet

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SLIDE 2

I use Blue Waters to… …simulate past climates!

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

Haywood et al., 2019

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SLIDE 3

Specific, I use Blue Waters to… …simulate hydroclimate change in California since 21 thousand years ago.

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 4

Wh Why y Californi nia?

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • 6th largest economy in the world

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

lao.ca.gov mercurynews.com

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SLIDE 5

Ca Californ

  • rnia Drou
  • ught

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Drought prone region
  • Uncertain future climate changes

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

Justin Sullivan WattzOn Labs Digital Magazine

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SLIDE 6

LG LGM Climate

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

  • Multiple lines of evidence

for circulation changes at the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka)

Ruddiman, 2000

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SLIDE 7

LG LGM Hydrology

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

  • Wetter Southwest US
  • Shift in storm tracks?

Ruddiman, 2000

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SLIDE 8

Ox Oxygen Isotopes

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Lighter isotopes

preferentially go to the higher energy state

  • Fractionation is

temperature dependent

  • Allows tracking of

water through the hydrological cycle

Urbano (2011)

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 9
  • Low value = depleted, lighter
  • High value = enriched, heavier

δ18

18O

O Meaning

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23 NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 10

Ox Oxygen Isotopes Signals

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • At its most basic…

Versteegh (2012)

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 11

Ox Oxygen Isotopes Complications

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Source
  • Circulation
  • Amount effect
  • Temperature
  • Changes

through time

Lachniet (2009)

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 12

Sp Speleot

  • thems

ms

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Chemical reaction as water flows

through the surface

  • Calcium carbonate formations via

carbonate dissolution

  • Allows δ18O to be determined
  • Absolute dating (U/Th)

Verheyden et al. (2008)

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 13

Sou Southwest U US Cl S Clima mate Si Since ce 21 k 21 ka

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Lots of regional climate

variability during the deglaciation

  • Mechanisms debated

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

Oster et al. (2016)

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SLIDE 14

Commu Community Eart rth System m Mod Model

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

M. Vertenstein

  • E. Kluzek
  • E. Brady
  • J. Zhu

iCAM

! D.

  • D. No

Noone ne J. . Nusbau sbaume mer

iPOP !

  • J. Z

. Zhang hang

  • E. Brady
  • E. Brady
  • J. Z

. Zhu hu

iCLM

D.

  • D. No

Noone ne!

  • T. W

. Wong ng

iRTM

!

  • J. Z

. Zhu hu

iCICE

!

  • D. Baile
  • D. Bailey

y A. . Jahn ahn

  • J. Z

. Zhu hu

iCPL

  • State-of-the-art Earth System

Model

  • iCESM1.2
  • Brady et al., in review; JAMES
  • Fully coupled with water

isotope tracers

Esther Brady

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 15

Ox Oxygen Isotopes in CAM5

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Well simulates present day isotopic distribution

Nusbaumer et al. (2017)

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 16

Ox Oxygen Isotopes in POP2

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

Ocean Surface Atlantic Ocean

LeGrande and Schmidt (2006)

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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Expe Experiment Desi sign gn

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • 7 experiments spanning the deglaciation (PMIP

protocol; ICE-6G) NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

Run Obliquity Precession Eccentricity CO2 (ppm) Ice Sheets Preindustrial 23.459 0.01690 0.016767 284.3 0 ka LGM 22.949 0.01772 0.018994 190 21 ka HS1 23.756

  • 0.00544

0.019560 224 16 ka BO 23.886

  • 0.01069

0.019635 234 15.0 ka OD 23.997

  • 0.01508

0.019679 239 14.0 ka YD 24.159 0.01989 0.019613 260 12.5 ka MH 24.105 0.00 0.018682 264.4 6 ka

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SLIDE 18

Expe Experiment Setup up

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Need to equilibrate the ocean
  • Run with lower resolution configuration
  • Need to resolve key topographic features
  • Sierra Nevada requires at least 0.25° resolution

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 19

Pr Precip – Ev Evap Response

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • The western US gets

wetter at the LGM

  • Both increased

precipitation and dampened evaporation NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 20

δ18

18O

O of f Precipitation Resp sponse se

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Western US depletion of

~1.5 per mil NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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Wa Water Tags

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Track the amount and isotopic composition of water
  • riginating from different regions

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

NW N.Pacifjc CW N.Pacifjc SW N.Pacifjc SE N.Pacifjc CE N.Pacifjc NE N.Pacifjc

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Wi Winter Precipi pitation n Amoun unt: Ce Central West Nort

  • rth Pacific

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Contributes ~7% more to

the total precipitation at the LGM

  • Likely related to shift in

storm track

  • Manabe and Broccoli, 1985

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 23

Ed Eddy Kinetic Energy

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Southward shift of the storm tracks at the LGM
  • Potentially explains the central Pacific moisture

increase at the LGM NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 24

Wi Winter Precipi pitation n Amoun unt: Sou Southwest Nort North P Paci cific

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Contributes ~4% more

to the total precipitation at the LGM

  • Atmospheric river

contribution?

  • Lora et al. 2017

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 25

Ne Next St Step: H : High R Resolution

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Low resolution limited
  • Significant local variability

NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

Wikipedia

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SLIDE 26

Ne Next St Step: H : High F Frequency cy

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Data is lost when

averaging over months or years

  • Need identification

tools NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

University of Wisconsin

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SLIDE 27

Ke Key Challenges

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Understanding hydroclimate change in Western US

since 21 ka!

  • Requires high resolution with water isotope tracers

and high frequency outputs to perform an “apples to apples” comparison with speleothem records NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

woot.com

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SLIDE 28

Wh Why y it Matters? s?

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Help inform proxies and models
  • Improve understanding of Western US

hydroclimate and abrupt climate change NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it incorrectly forecast the future!

Foster et al. (2014)

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SLIDE 29

Wh Why y Blue ue Waters? s?

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23

  • Paleoclimate simulations require a long time to

equilibrate

  • The addition of water isotopes adds ~50% cost
  • To resolve Western US topography, you need 0.25°

resolution NCSA Blue Waters Symposium

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SLIDE 30

Qu Question

  • ns?

UConn Physics Colloquium 2/23 NCSA Blue Waters Symposium