Hi. My name is Michael Gray and I represent the Public PRT Consortium (PPRTC) out of Colorado Springs. My friend and associate David Lehmann, the President of PPRTC, sends his regards. Please reference pprtc.org for some background, however be advised it is a work-in-progress and will be updated soon to reflect our recent activities, the evolution of our position, as well as an account of this event. The complete title of my talk was actually: How PRT Will Change The World (perhaps, not like we think). So, the basic theme throughout will reflect a different approach towards tackling transit challenges in the 21 st century, we feel by necessity. My background is in aviation, Dave in aerospace engineering and both of us are expert consumers. Simply put: we pay attention. Although Dave and I are PRT advocates, our overall goals employ this wonderful system (thanks to Martin Lowson, rest in peace, mate) within a larger, economically synergetic framework. We want to propel our podcars and power our infrastructure using a distributed generation (DG) strategy. We want to control that generation onsite with surgical precision using renewable fuel. We want to create a user experience (industrial and individual) that enhances congregation, recreation and actually “incentivizes renewable consumption.” Who is “we” and what does that mean? In April of 2010, I was directed to Colorado Springs City Hall and the Transportation Working Group (TWG), a regional initiative, by Senator Michael Bennet’s office after the BP disaster struck the Gulf. That event had made clear, in no uncertain terms, the inextricable link between transportation and energy, and I wanted help in building an EV car-share network (powered by PVs and VAWTs) and then guidance on scaling up. At the time, as some of you know, Dave was advocating earnestly for PRT (check out imbed video at pprtc.org) and also attended the TWG regularly. Our ensuing conversations gave rise to Green Energy Endeavor (GEE), a global “thought tank,” if you will, because most of the ideas we ponder have been around awhile (another theme of this talk). We advocate for a sensible yet vigorous path to the widespread adoption of PRT. Our commitment should be bold, yet circumspect; disruptive, but incrementally so; and, as Guy Kawasaki says, “…you need both microscopes and telescopes to achieve success.”
Regarding the proliferation of an innovative transit system nationwide our assessment was: all that has been tried before will not work because it has not worked. And, that our new approach was converging with inexorable demographic forces such as population surges, migration and an immense and aging baby boomer cohort. Accompanying those however, were potent new technologies previously unavailable or too expensive, coinciding with relatively cheap money and cheap natural gas. There was undeniable growth in public awareness after BP, then Sandy, and then out West (my home), where both fire and floods set records. Well, that awareness is the most important convergence inspiring our efforts, suggesting that the time for mutation and evolution of our entire consumption paradigm is at hand. We came to realize that we were both thinking too small and that true urban efficiency will result from a combination of modes (PRT, vehicle-share, HST, etc.) plus an integration of that combination, a Mobility component, with other industries, merchants and vendors. We agreed that the incubation of PRT technology would progress to greater effect inside an industrial Leviathan, if you will, versus pursuing the attention of government for funding. And without question, the participation by an academic institution was going to be crucial to our efforts. GEE began to establish a few guiding principles in our advocacy for a sensible path towards “planetary sanity.” To start with, the future will not be a zero-sum game. It will be a hybrid of roadways and fixed-guideways; “free- range” vehicles and podcars; the ability to change your mind, alter your route, respond to an emergency on the fly or to travel from “always this A to always this B,” as both commuters and a great deal of freight does. Two species of “delivering mass,” if you will: your free-range car or the next podcar you take at the PRT station. Both eliminate the entire concept of a schedule. No waiting. On-demand. In order to match supply with demand as it occurs or, in other words “synchronize flows” to achieve optimum efficiency. (The Great Pyramid at Giza, given the number of blocks and the timeframe for construction, needed a multi-ton block put into place with precision every 3 to 5 minutes for decades. That’s synchronization of flow.)
This idea speaks to the delivery industry’s incentive to “extend the robotic metaphor outside and in-between their buildings.” UPS, Amazon, Ikea, the Dover AFB supply hangar, among many others, all manage their warehouses with robots. That is, GEE knows the freight industry will advance PRT technologies (and, the inevitable headaches associated with certification) because they are already doing FRT inside their buildings, or at least the concept: no waiting – no en route stops. They also have the ability to prototype virtually, fabricate, manufacture then test at scale. In other words, fail efficiently. “On-demand” and “just-in-time” delivery are not new ideas (see Richard Sears; Fred Smith – FedEx; Jeff Bezos - Amazon). But, PRT and FRT will enable them to actualize their potential, with new designs that take advantage of the latest technology and integrations like the ones we suggest. The result will be systems that save energy and that strengthen the delivery industry’s on-time guarantee. Recent advancement in technical capability also allows complete control over one’s own energy equation regardless of the enterprise. This control, enabled by a Power component, we decided, would be the key to an effective strategy. Again, if we can synchronize flows in this arena too, it further enhances the bottom line (see pie chart). So, how do we proceed? Well, the “new normal” presents a few daunting challenges. The new normal is: 1) a climate that is more violent and less predictable, 2) a never-ending state of rebuilding due to the last natural disaster, the upgrading of aging infrastructure, not to mention the relocation of assets away from a receding coastline and, 3) political intransigence. These are merely the conditions to which we must adapt. Our ability to consciously direct how we respond to environmental pressure is what enables our species to handle rapid changes. And when we do evolve, efficiency is always the goal (if not the eventual destination).
We are inspired by a few things too: our overwhelming need to both rebuild and build anew represents the greatest economic opportunity in history; the state of efficiency we aspire to is our destiny and that what we are doing is what we are supposed to be doing; and, most importantly, carrots beat sticks any day when seeking meaningful human response. The most effective engine of invention, innovation and discovery is self- interest, but that doesn’t necessarily mean economic reward. Some seek fame or legacy, such as academic institutions or billionaires. Many of us covet some level of peer recognition, but all humans desire to embrace a cause, to be part of something meaningful. What drives us as a species in terms of evolutionary success, however, is the desire for efficiency. Our time is precious as is our material, but energy is king. Saving any one of them produces a surplus of the human abstraction known as money. So, the pursuit of profit is inextricably linked to the instinct to survive. With all due respect to the more altruistic objects of self-interest mentioned above, it is the delivery of value, to the user, the operator and the investor that succeeds. Profit will always be the ultimate carrot. Mitigated risk, reduced liability and shorter payback timeframes are valuable incentives to participate as well. GEE knows we can successfully marshal this inexorable force of human nature, marry it to the equally reliable forces of Mother Nature to create commercial synergy. Which brings us to another Endeavor guiding principle. When does a system achieve sustainability? To be “sustainable” is the stated goal of most every business or institution, but do their designs address that goal? We hold that “a system is sustainable, if and only if, it is powered by renewable energy (or working to become so) and can achieve commercial viability in perpetuity.” Given that meaning, no transit system on the planet is sustainable, however this refined definition offers direction on how we must proceed. For any enterprise that wishes to be truly sustainable the minimum prerequisites are: renewably-powered and ongoing commercial viability. Full stop.
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