Hi. My name is Michael Gray and I represent the Public PRT Consortium - - PDF document

• Hi. My name is Michael Gray and I represent the Public PRT Consortium

(PPRTC) out of Colorado Springs. My friend and associate David Lehmann, the President of PPRTC, sends his regards. Please reference pprtc.org for some background, however be advised it is a work-in-progress and will be updated soon to reflect our recent activities, the evolution of our position, as well as an account of this event. The complete title of my talk was actually: How PRT Will Change The World (perhaps, not like we think). So, the basic theme throughout will reflect a different approach towards tackling transit challenges in the 21st century, we feel by necessity. My background is in aviation, Dave in aerospace engineering and both of us are expert consumers. Simply put: we pay attention. Although Dave and I are PRT advocates, our overall goals employ this wonderful system (thanks to Martin Lowson, rest in peace, mate) within a larger, economically synergetic framework. We want to propel our podcars and power our infrastructure using a distributed generation (DG) strategy. We want to control that generation onsite with surgical precision using renewable fuel. We want to create a user experience (industrial and individual) that enhances congregation, recreation and actually “incentivizes renewable consumption.” Who is “we” and what does that mean? In April of 2010, I was directed to Colorado Springs City Hall and the Transportation Working Group (TWG), a regional initiative, by Senator Michael Bennet’s office after the BP disaster struck the Gulf. That event had made clear, in no uncertain terms, the inextricable link between transportation and energy, and I wanted help in building an EV car-share network (powered by PVs and VAWTs) and then guidance on scaling up. At the time, as some of you know, Dave was advocating earnestly for PRT (check out imbed video at pprtc.org) and also attended the TWG regularly. Our ensuing conversations gave rise to Green Energy Endeavor (GEE), a global “thought tank,” if you will, because most of the ideas we ponder have been around awhile (another theme of this talk). We advocate for a sensible yet vigorous path to the widespread adoption of PRT. Our commitment should be bold, yet circumspect; disruptive, but incrementally so; and, as Guy Kawasaki says, “…you need both microscopes and telescopes to achieve success.”

Regarding the proliferation of an innovative transit system nationwide our assessment was: all that has been tried before will not work because it has not worked. And, that our new approach was converging with inexorable demographic forces such as population surges, migration and an immense and aging baby boomer cohort. Accompanying those however, were potent new technologies previously unavailable or too expensive, coinciding with relatively cheap money and cheap natural gas. There was undeniable growth in public awareness after BP, then Sandy, and then out West (my home), where both fire and floods set

• records. Well, that awareness is the most important convergence inspiring
• ur efforts, suggesting that the time for mutation and evolution of our entire

consumption paradigm is at hand. We came to realize that we were both thinking too small and that true urban efficiency will result from a combination of modes (PRT, vehicle-share, HST, etc.) plus an integration of that combination, a Mobility component, with

• ther industries, merchants and vendors. We agreed that the incubation of

PRT technology would progress to greater effect inside an industrial Leviathan, if you will, versus pursuing the attention of government for

• funding. And without question, the participation by an academic institution

was going to be crucial to our efforts. GEE began to establish a few guiding principles in our advocacy for a sensible path towards “planetary sanity.” To start with, the future will not be a zero-sum game. It will be a hybrid of roadways and fixed-guideways; “free- range” vehicles and podcars; the ability to change your mind, alter your route, respond to an emergency on the fly or to travel from “always this A to always this B,” as both commuters and a great deal of freight does. Two species of “delivering mass,” if you will: your free-range car or the next podcar you take at the PRT station. Both eliminate the entire concept of a

• schedule. No waiting. On-demand. In order to match supply with demand as

it occurs or, in other words “synchronize flows” to achieve optimum efficiency. (The Great Pyramid at Giza, given the number of blocks and the timeframe for construction, needed a multi-ton block put into place with precision every 3 to 5 minutes for decades. That’s synchronization of flow.)

This idea speaks to the delivery industry’s incentive to “extend the robotic metaphor outside and in-between their buildings.” UPS, Amazon, Ikea, the Dover AFB supply hangar, among many others, all manage their warehouses with robots. That is, GEE knows the freight industry will advance PRT technologies (and, the inevitable headaches associated with certification) because they are already doing FRT inside their buildings, or at least the concept: no waiting – no en route stops. They also have the ability to prototype virtually, fabricate, manufacture then test at scale. In other words, fail efficiently. “On-demand” and “just-in-time” delivery are not new ideas (see Richard Sears; Fred Smith – FedEx; Jeff Bezos - Amazon). But, PRT and FRT will enable them to actualize their potential, with new designs that take advantage of the latest technology and integrations like the ones we suggest. The result will be systems that save energy and that strengthen the delivery industry’s on-time guarantee. Recent advancement in technical capability also allows complete control

• ver one’s own energy equation regardless of the enterprise. This control,

enabled by a Power component, we decided, would be the key to an effective strategy. Again, if we can synchronize flows in this arena too, it further enhances the bottom line (see pie chart). So, how do we proceed? Well, the “new normal” presents a few daunting

• challenges. The new normal is:

1) a climate that is more violent and less predictable, 2) a never-ending state of rebuilding due to the last natural disaster, the upgrading of aging infrastructure, not to mention the relocation of assets away from a receding coastline and, 3) political intransigence. These are merely the conditions to which we must adapt. Our ability to consciously direct how we respond to environmental pressure is what enables our species to handle rapid changes. And when we do evolve, efficiency is always the goal (if not the eventual destination).

We are inspired by a few things too: our overwhelming need to both rebuild and build anew represents the greatest economic opportunity in history; the state of efficiency we aspire to is our destiny and that what we are doing is what we are supposed to be doing; and, most importantly, carrots beat sticks any day when seeking meaningful human response. The most effective engine of invention, innovation and discovery is self- interest, but that doesn’t necessarily mean economic reward. Some seek fame or legacy, such as academic institutions or billionaires. Many of us covet some level of peer recognition, but all humans desire to embrace a cause, to be part of something meaningful. What drives us as a species in terms of evolutionary success, however, is the desire for efficiency. Our time is precious as is our material, but energy is

• king. Saving any one of them produces a surplus of the human abstraction

known as money. So, the pursuit of profit is inextricably linked to the instinct to survive. With all due respect to the more altruistic objects of self-interest mentioned above, it is the delivery of value, to the user, the operator and the investor that succeeds. Profit will always be the ultimate carrot. Mitigated risk, reduced liability and shorter payback timeframes are valuable incentives to participate as well. GEE knows we can successfully marshal this inexorable force of human nature, marry it to the equally reliable forces of Mother Nature to create commercial synergy. Which brings us to another Endeavor guiding principle. When does a system achieve sustainability? To be “sustainable” is the stated goal of most every business or institution, but do their designs address that goal? We hold that “a system is sustainable, if and only if, it is powered by renewable energy (or working to become so) and can achieve commercial viability in perpetuity.” Given that meaning, no transit system on the planet is sustainable, however this refined definition offers direction on how we must proceed. For any enterprise that wishes to be truly sustainable the minimum prerequisites are: renewably-powered and ongoing commercial viability. Full stop.

How do we achieve that? That question was the impetus for the creation of “a template for urban efficiency that consolidates the infrastructure for Mobility, Power and Telecommunications (MPT) into a single design.” When integrated with diverse retail opportunity at strategic locations we give rise to an economic ecosystem, or what we call an MPT Ecosystem. These local Ecosystems will eventually linkup forming a regional network, one day connecting to all other modes and becoming denser, hence more useful, as time goes by. Our Mobility component will be anchored by a PRT system with the guideway serving as the conduit for system Power and Telecommunications. Vehicle-share networks (electric bikes, EVs, motorized wheelchairs, etc.) will then complete the last-mile, connecting to neighborhoods (which is the link between Dave’s vision and mine). When Dave first described the PRT model I, like most, thought out loud, “Too expensive.” So, besides the farebox, how will the MPT Ecosystem generate revenue? Think of the electrons, streaming through the guideway to go do work, and the photons, carrying information through fiber-optic cables within the same robust infrastructure, as payload. Paying passengers. Likewise the freight in the FRT podcars zipping along the same MPT

• Conduit. Micro-fees from millions of micro-transactions a minute combined

with myriad other revenue streams (fig. 1) will allow the Ecosystem operator to support what most consider to be a prohibitively expensive transit innovation. How we achieve efficiency speaks to another foundational principle. The ability to accurately measure something ultimately leads to the ability to control it. And, control is the key to efficiency, which yields profitability, the most ideal path to true sustainability. Hydrogen Fuel Cell (HFC) power generation has many benefits, which I can speak to at length, but it doesn’t matter if we are powering everything with hamsters and rubber bands. It is the arrangement of our components and how we manage them that will determine success. If we design for utility, convenience and safety we will create an influx of the most essential “fuel”

• f all: revenue borne of return customers and happy tenants.

Attached to every thing bought and sold is an energy cost. It is compulsory, mandatory, inescapable. Even energy costs energy. When you fill your gas tank, energy was spent extracting, refining, transporting and finally pumping

• it. Mostly non-renewable energy, that is. When we consume inside the MPT

Ecosystem, most of the energy expended will be from renewable sources. Proliferating Ecosystems will “incentivize renewable consumption.” Microgrid Power Management (MPM) has three basic elements, 1) precise measurement (due to redundant sensing systems) monitored in realtime plus, 2) strategies based on predictive algorithms using a diversity of data (history, the news, the weather, did the Broncos get in the playoffs? will Denver need more power next Sunday? at what times? etc.) All that combined with, 3) the tactical advantage afforded by the ability to generate any amount of power anytime. “On-demand” systems, the same concept as in PRT and FRT, work to synchronize flow and match supply to the actual nature of demand; human demand, which is never uniform and always varying in intensity. The forces

• f Mother Nature are too. That is the value of the capacity to store energy as

compressed Hydrogen: it turns a diversity of wildly fluctuating energy sources into a single steady-state source. The obvious benefit being: your

• verhead for energy next week, next year, ten years hence, will be bedrock

stable and predictable. Our approach to initial research and development, as stated, intentionally avoids the limitations of government sponsorship. It starts on the campuses

• f giant freight companies keenly interested in “synchronizing flow” and

removing the human factor from their delivery guarantee equation. They are pursuing a “carrot” which will yield profit from day one: upon establishing an FRT circuit between, say, the airport and a satellite warehouse, a driver is thus taken off the road. The employee will be elevated to manage their deliveries at either end of the

• guideway. We do not eliminate the employee, we eliminate the position and

all the associated costs: payroll, insurance premiums, plus the benefit of avoiding accidents (the “other guy”), most weather delays (check: iconic Morgantown newsreel footage during a typical West Virginian blizzard; their PRT operated normally), and the daily challenge of traffic congestion, something no one expects to improve anywhere in the developed world anytime soon. As positions dwindle, big corporations can adjust fairly given their attrition rate (further rationale for enlisting a Leviathan).

FRT is basically a robot that never gets tired, bored or distracted. It does not need to take vacations. It does not get sick, go on strike or file for workmen’s

• compensation. If correctly programmed, it is quite reliable. Most important

to the industry: FRT will allow unprecedented control over their on-time guarantee equation wherever it is deployed. We haven’t even begun to factor in all the benefits of the MPT Ecosystem and the MPT Conduit, whose ultimate value is the control it enables over

• ne’s energy equation. All told, to the delivery industry our template

represents what we call an “irresistible value proposition” (IVP). Besides an industrial partner for research and development, the participation

• f an academic institution from the start will be instrumental in building a

baseline of research data that is beyond reproach. The university can take advantage of the controlled environment an industrial campus affords for the purpose of gathering data per strict specifications versus all the extraneous variables out in the real world. This research will then be able to withstand the intense vetting we expect from another potential participant: the feds. It would behoove the PRT industry to begin seeking consultation on the composition of what would basically be Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs) for guideway vehicular traffic. It may offer insight that would direct design. It would be easy to interpret our approach as dismissive of the federal government in terms of getting started. Even when it is operating under normal conditions, the revolving-door nature of American government renders it unable to consistently support the most basic infrastructure projects, much less the research and development required for something new. On the other hand, once we have demonstrated the economic benefits, the enlistment of Uncle Sam could, in fact, be a game-changer for the planet. This relates to our final guiding principle at GEE: we don’t have to mention climate change because it’s now just the climate here in the new normal; we don’t have to use education as a stick employing frightening facts; or, for three, perhaps bitter-to-swallow reasons, we should stop demonizing whom we perceive to be the obstacles to progress (energy companies, the government, the military, insurance companies, etc.).

First, even enlightened folks are complicit in asking the energy companies to secure more oil every time they start their cars. It is communication in its purest form. It is the market signal. It transcends language. Every time you drive on asphalt, buy polyester, fill your tank, take prescription medicine, turn up the thermostat, and on and on and on, you are telling them: “Please get more oil.” Second, being human, people in the energy industry must be confused by

• ur scorn. They are only responding to our insatiable signal, so making them

feel bad is simply counterproductive. But, the most important reason: they could be instrumental in the paradigm

• shift. If only Big Oil, Uncle Sam and the freight industry created MPT

Ecosystem networks within the confines of their respective campuses, that would change the world by virtue of bringing the cost of your basic MPT Ecosystem down significantly. The volume of the demand for components would be staggering. Just consider this: the largest air force in the world is, of course, the United States Air Force, the second largest? The United States Navy. We have over 1000 bases in 130 countries, not including this country. Then there’s the Post Office and the rest of our colossal bureaucracy. Also, the U.S. military is eager to achieve the kind of tactical superiority that

• nsite power generation engenders; they currently employ MPM protocols at

their Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) to great effect as well (albeit burning airdropped diesel fuel at 600 bucks a gallon). MPT Ecosystem networks could blossom on bases, naval ports and airfields long before they spread to the public-at-large. The kind of independence, flexibility and resilience the GEE template affords a community is another value proposition beyond the fostering of prosperity. And, military bases are communities. Base commanders are budget-hawks,

• n top of all their other responsibilities, and may find the economic benefits

irresistible, however the tactical advantages will not be lost on them. Embracing the inevitable paradigm shift could result in historical legacy. From middle management up through the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon, one philosophy is now taking shape that will redound to the benefit of the nation: “sustainment over containment.” The bottom line is that only wealthy countries project power and influence globally.

Imagine if prosperity becomes the weapon of choice for the 21st century, the community being the weapons delivery system? Every state could build MPT Ecosystems using a fraction of the Department of Defense budget. We built a couple hundred F-22 jets, cost to the taxpayer: 79 billion dollars. They have never been / will never be flown. Proliferation of the MPT template could be the greatest defense initiative in history and legitimate pork for all. The DOD’s carrot (besides efficient bases): a nation sensibly connected and renewably powered would be impervious to attack, both physical and virtual. At the recent ASTER Foundation conference, Peter Mueller described the London Heathrow PRT project, pointing out that it was an arduous task to basically retrofit the terminal with PRT infrastructure. GEE would contend that, at least for the foreseeable future, retrofitting existing property to connect existing nodes of activity is how we start the paradigm shift. This slashes costs and liabilities significantly right off the top. Imagine all the malls in town connected to the airport, hospital, universities, stadium complexes and downtown by rapid transit, creating density wherever deployed and networks of, for lack of a better term, “distributed everything,” including parking, daycare and education. A great force for “planetary sanity” is author and advocate Bill McDonough whose landmark work Cradle To Cradle talks about caring for the things we use to the extent that, even before breaking ground, we know that after the useful life of our material is over, we have a plan to return them to Earth safely or recycle them into new constructs. That way, the very act of consumption is a benefit, not a detriment to Mother Nature. That is very much in tune with our overall goal of creating a legacy of systems that “incentivize renewable consumption.” It means our grandkid’s grandkids and all the children they play with, need only live life to heal the planet.