HEV, P-HEV, and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the key Christophe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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HEV, P-HEV, and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the key Christophe - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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HEV, P-HEV, and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the key Christophe PILLOT BRUSSELS Director, AVICENNE ENERGY 20 22 NOVEMBER 2012 Christophe PILLOT c.pillot@avicenne.com +33(0)1 4778 4600 AVICENNE PROFILE Information for Growth - Powering

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Christophe PILLOT c.pillot@avicenne.com +33(0)1 4778 4600

HEV, P-HEV, and EV market 2011-2025

Battery is the key

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Christophe PILLOT

BRUSSELS 20 – 22 NOVEMBER 2012

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

AVICENNE PROFILE

Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI Headquarter: Paris Liaison Office: Japan, USA AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot 5 consultants

A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari

Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy with in-depth research

The Rechargeable Battery market 21st Edition Customized survey 2

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

In Depth analysis Of applications Conferences & Exhibitions Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers OEM Raw materials suppliers Environment & recycling BMS Electronics Substitution technologies

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN

Source : Photo from BASF

Raw Materials BMS & Electronics Cooling Systems Power Electronics Batteries

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 2008 to 2012 EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020

IIT (March 2010) AAB Deutsche Bank Roland Berger (2011) AVICENNE IIT (March 2011) Roland Berger (2012) 1 2 3 4 5 2010 2015 2020

Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

5 IIT 2007 IIT 2008 IIT 2009 IIT 2010 AVICENNE 2007 REALITY 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Million HEV powered by LIB

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

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THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC

500 1000 1500 2000 2000 2011 Million Units / year Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) Li-ion NiMH

211 M Portable PCs 65 M Tablets 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2011 Million Units/Year

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion NiMH

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 2000 2011 Tons of cathode / Year Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 2000 2011 $/Wh Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 450 000 1990 2000 2010 MWh

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid

50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 1990 2000 2010 MWh

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010

5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 1990 2000 2010 MWh

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

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Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2010

0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 1990 2000 2010 Billion US $

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid

35 BILLION US$ 5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2010)

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  • 5,0

10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 1990 2000 2010 Billion US$ STORAGE TRACTION INDUSTRIAL PORTABLE SLI

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

LI-ION IN 2011

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

>4 200 M cells – 28 000 MWh 9 700 M$ CAGR 2006/2011 +21% per year in Volume +13% per year in value

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  • 5 000

10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 M Wh

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

  • 2 000

4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 M Wh

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3 Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

LI-ION IN 2011

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

> 4 200M cells – 28 000 MWh 9 700 M$ CAGR 2006/2011 +21% per year in Volume +13% per year in value

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  • 2 000

4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2011

Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3 Games E-Bikes Others

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

20 40 60 80 100 120 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Million barrel per day

Price of the WTI barrel

  • f oil, US $

CO2 density in the atmosphere increase

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WHY X-EV ?

Petroleum consumption worldwide 1960-2030

0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 20 40 60 80 100 120 1973

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/ pub/contents.html Source: IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007, Synthesis Report p38

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

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HEV, P-HEV & EV DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

EV & HEV MARKET

EV

25 kWh

HEV

0.6-2 kWh batteries

MICRO HEV* MILD HEV MEDIUM HEV FULL HEV P HEV

5 kWh batteries CITROEN C3 TOYOTA VITZ

GM Saturn Vue GM AURA GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT MERCEDES S400 TOYOTA PRIUS TOYOTA CAMRY FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE NISSAN ALTIMA

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $

Fuel saving Vs. Cost

HEV P-HEV EV

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 1,5 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, 2000 - 2012 Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2000-2012

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Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included

0,0% 0,2% 0,4% 0,6% 0,8% 1,0% 1,2% 1,4% 1,6% 1,8% 2,0% 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6 HEV worldwide penetration (%) Million TOYOTA OTHERS

USA JAPAN EUROPE 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Penetration of hybrids in the globale sales

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOYOTA HONDA FORD GM BMW HYUNDAI PORCHE Others

Total HEV Vehicles +1,5 M in 2012 HEV sold per year, M units per car manufacturers, 2000-2012

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TOYOTA HONDA 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 ‘ 000 HEV sold TOYOTA HONDA

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA, HYUNDAI OTHERS: FORD, GM, …

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TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 ‘ 000 HEV sold TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI FORD GM HYUNDAI 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ‘ 000 HEV sold FORD GM HYUNDAI

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012 BY COUNTRY

USA 29% EUROPE 10% JAPAN 54% OTHERS 7%

Total HEV Vehicles 1,5 M in 2012 HEV sold per year, M units per country, 2004-2012

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USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Micro hybrid not included

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

HEV FORECASTS 2012-2020

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: +2 Million units in 2015 & +4 M Units in 2020

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0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Million USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

Micro hybrid not included

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

LONG TERM HEV FORECAST FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020

0,9 2,2 4,4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2011 2015 2020 Million AVICENNE (Sept 2012) AVICENNE (Oct 2009) AABC (2011) IIT (March 2011) Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009) Roland Berger (Mini August 2011) Nomura (March 2009)

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AVICENNE ENERGY FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC COMPARE TO OTHER ANALYSTS

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Compilation, February 2012 Micro hybrid not included

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS DEVICES: AVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST

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Li-ion penetration in electronic devices & HEV

(1)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario (2)AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario (3)IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar, (4)AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009

HEV powered by LIB forecasts from 2008 to 2011

IIT 2007 IIT 2008 IIT 2009 IIT 2010 AVICENNE 2007 REALITY 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Million HEV powered by LIB

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011 Micro hybrid not included

Cellular Phones (to=1994) Portable PCs (to=1994) Power Tools (to=2004) HEV Avicenne (to=2010) HEV IIT (to=2009) HEV AAB (to=2009) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Li-ion penetration in electronic devices & HEV

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

LIB BUSINESS RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

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  • More & more incidents &

accidents

  • All the battery makers and

the OEM are concerned

  • Recall cost impact

drastically the battery business and the profitability

  • 50%
  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Operating profit/Revenue

RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

Sanyo MBI BYD SGS Sony NEC Maxell LGC SDI Average

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launch by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin

  • membrane. It was 20 years ago.

LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (19 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (15 years ago). So, it take between 10 & 20 years to commercialized a new material in the battery industry.

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

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LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh in 2015

A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity

500 1000 1500

PANASONIC NISSAN Motor US Sony BYD LG Chem JCI A123 Sanyo Ener1 Nissan-Renault (Fr) Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI) GS YUASA SB Limotive Hitachi Vehicle Energy Lithium Energy Japan Rusnano-Thunder Sky LG Chem - Compact … Nissan - Renault (UK) Toshiba Blue Energy Nissan-Renault (Port) Lishen BAK SAFT US SAFT Hitachi Vehicle Energy AESC Japon NEC Tokin (Electrodes) Mitsubishi H.I. SK Energy Panasonic EV LiTec GmbH

M$ Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average Investments: 250 $ / kWh

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

LIB BATTERY COST

Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …) Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure :

CAPEX, labor cost, R&D Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)

Raw material needs / mAh Electrode process Yield Assembly Process Yield Cell manufacturing cost Module manufacturing cost Pack assembly cost …

Costs analysis Battery price in 2011 $/kWh

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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 LIB 18650 cell LIB EV Cell LIB pack for EV LIB HEV cell LIB pack for HEV

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

LI-ION BATTERY COST 2011-2020

LIB cell average cost (EV design ; NMC cathode) LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV

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* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2011 2015 2020 $ / kWh Margin Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Depreciation Others Separator Electrolyte Anode cost Cathode cost

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Cell Pack Cell Pack Cell Pack $ / kWh Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Electrolyte Separator Anode Cathode

2015* 2020* 2011*

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

EV FORECASTS 2011-2020

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020 EV impact on the LIB & raw material market is HUGE

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IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009 Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011 IIT (March 2010) AAB Deutsche Bank Roland Berger AVICENNE IIT (March 2011) 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010 2015 2020

Number of EV sold worldwide ( Million)

4 50 45 400 1000 10000 25000

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Mobile Phone Portable PC Power Tools E-bikes HEV P-HEV EV Average Wh per device

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 2011-2020

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020 Total battery demand (MWh) 2000 – 2025

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20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M Wh

NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

  • 5 000

10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 M Wh NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 2020

Micro-hybrids car market 2010-2020 Advantages of micro-hybrid compare to HEV

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Powered by Advanced lead acid batteries Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less) Much more impact on CO2

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2010 2015 2020 Million

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE Optimistic Scenario JD Power Valeo Micro-hybrid Full HEV Battery Advanced lead acid NiMH or LIB Cost ($) 300 3000 Fuel saving 5% 20% Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020 35 - 55 4

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES

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Standard Lead acid Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion batteries NiMH batteries STANDARD CAR 88.5%

EV P-HEV

FULL HEV 1% MILD HEV 0.5% MICRO HYBRIDS 10%

Advanced Lead acid (+ EDLC)

NiMH STANDARD CAR 54% MICRO HYBRID 40%

EV P-HEV 2%

FULL HEV 4%

ULTRA BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

TAKEAWAYS

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH LIB begin really to compete in 2012 P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 5 B$ market in 2015 & 9 B$ in 2020 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve 40% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2020 in volume & value

Battery Market 2010-2020 CAGR = +8%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE 2000-2020

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  • 10 000

20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 M $

Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB

100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 1990 2000 2010 2020 MWh

Lead Acid NiCd NiMH LIB Others

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Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2011-2025 Battery is the Key

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT AVICENNE ENERGY c.pillot@avicenne.com Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00 Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

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