Health and Climate Change Healthy planet, healthy people Climate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Health and Climate Change

Healthy planet, healthy people

“Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century”

The Lancet 2009

The Science of Climate Change

The Ten Hottest Years on Record

• The 10 warmest years since 1880 have all have
• ccurred since 2000, with the exception of 1998
• 2015 was globally the warmest year on record (

NASA/GISS)

• Image: NASA Scien6fic

Visualiza6on Studio

ARCTIC WARMING

Arc6c sea cover by ice over 4 years old

• 1.8 m sq.Km – 1984
• 110,000Km - 2016
• Changes in jet stream winds bring storms
• Colder winters
• Drought

Anthropogenic Climate Change

99.999% certainty that humans driving global warming 99.999% certainty that humans driving global warming (CSIRO 2014)

(CSIRO 2014)

What’s Driving the Changes?

• Atmospheric CO2 now

Atmospheric CO2 now >400ppm >400ppm

• 280 ppm in pre-industrial

280 ppm in pre-industrial period period

Climate Science 101

• Greenhouse gases (GG) in

Greenhouse gases (GG) in atmosphere traps heat from atmosphere traps heat from sun - rise in temperature of sun - rise in temperature of earth earth – Arrhenius (1896) – Arrhenius (1896)

• GG include: CO2, water

GG include: CO2, water vapour vapour, methane, nitrous , methane, nitrous

• xide, CFCs & HCFCs (some
• xide, CFCs & HCFCs (some

anaesthetic anaesthetic gases) gases)

• Source: Williams DL. 2006

Source: Williams DL. 2006

The increase in The increase in temperature is temperature is proportional to the proportional to the increasing concentration increasing concentration

• f CO2 in the
• f CO2 in the

atmosphere atmosphere

• Average global

Average global temperature increase = temperature increase = 0.85 0.850C over the period C over the period 1880-2012 (IPCC 2014) 1880-2012 (IPCC 2014)

• á CO2 = á Temperature

More Extreme Weather Events

Source: Whitehouse

Future Impacts of Climate Change

• Biodiversity loss/ extinctions

Biodiversity loss/ extinctions

• Extreme weather events

Extreme weather events

• Sea level rise

Sea level rise

• Reduced freshwater availability

Reduced freshwater availability

• Ocean acidification and collapse of reefs and fisheries

Ocean acidification and collapse of reefs and fisheries

• Food security

Food security

• Economic impacts

Economic impacts

• Health

Health

• Conflict

Conflict

• Mass migration

Mass migration

IPCC-5 Future risks by 2050 (IPCC 2014)

Source: IPCC 2013

Feedback / Tipping points

• Non linear, already faster than

Non linear, already faster than predictions predictions

• Albedo effect – white ice reflects

Albedo effect – white ice reflects

• Loss Greenland ice sheet

Loss Greenland ice sheet à sea sea level rise 7m level rise 7m

• CO2 absorption by ocean –

CO2 absorption by ocean – saturated saturated à release, kill plankton release, kill plankton

• Forest carbon sinks – warmed

Forest carbon sinks – warmed à die, burn die, burn

• Permafrost – warmed

Permafrost – warmed à release release methane methane

Climate Change – just one of many environmental risks and challenges

• Humanity is living unsustainably

Humanity is living unsustainably

• We are currently using 1.5 times the annual ‘ecological

We are currently using 1.5 times the annual ‘ecological capital’ – renewable biological services of the earth capital’ – renewable biological services of the earth

What is the Problem?

Health Impacts of Climate Change

Health burden of climate change

• Will likely worsen all top 5 causes of U5 child mortality

(respiratory illness, diarrhea, malaria, birth asphyxia, prematurity) (WHO 2014)

• malnutri6on underlying co-factor in 45%
• Threatens all development and health gains of past 50 years

(UNDP 2011, Lancet 2015)

• Threatens to put 1/3 of world popula6on back into extreme

poverty (UNDP 2013)

Evidence:

Climate change health risks and responses

• Over 1000 papers on health and

Over 1000 papers on health and climate change in peer-reviewed climate change in peer-reviewed journals journals

• Research covering risks, costs,

Research covering risks, costs, co-benefits of mitigation, co-benefits of mitigation, resource requirements resource requirements

• Evaluations of health risks in

Evaluations of health risks in three IPCC assessment reports three IPCC assessment reports

Lancet Commission on Health and Climate 2015

• Increase heat stroke, cardiac and

Increase heat stroke, cardiac and renal complications renal complications

• Significant respiratory complications

Significant respiratory complications (asthma, bronchitis) (asthma, bronchitis)

• Up to 15 000 death from heat stress

Up to 15 000 death from heat stress alone (Australia) alone (Australia)

• Significant increase in mental

Significant increase in mental diseases diseases

• Post Traumatic Stress Disorder

Post Traumatic Stress Disorder

• Dengue fever could extend to

Dengue fever could extend to Sydney Sydney

• Elderly, the sick, the very young and

Elderly, the sick, the very young and rural communities most vulnerable rural communities most vulnerable

Climate Commission Health Report

Impacts at 0.76 Degree Rise in 2009

Victoria:

• Hottest day ever recorded 7th Feb. 2009
• Driest start to year for 150 years 2009
• Record 12 year low rainfall
• Fire danger rating for Victoria on 7th Feb. 2009 ranged between

120-190 (previous record was Black Saturday in 1939 of 100) where 100=catastrophic rating

• 374 deaths from heat stress in first week of Feb.

(Karoly 2009, Chief Health Officer, Victoria 2009)

Source: Climate Commission 2012

Heat Waves Endanger Health

• Heat is the leading cause of weather-related death in Australia
• Elderly, very young, overweight, chronically ill, outdoor workers most

vulnerable to heat effects

Extreme weather events - heatwaves

• Increased ED acendances for gastroenteri6s, asthma, electrolyte

imbalances (Xu et al. 2014, Lam 2007)

• Extreme heat events leading to preterm labor (Wang et al. 2013, Strand et al. 2012, Basu et al. 2010,

S6eb 2012)

• 2003 European heatwave – 70,000 excess deaths
• 2009 Victorian heatwave – 374 excess deaths
• Number of days >35oC

will triple in Melbourne by 2100 (CSIRO 2015)

Source: Climate Commission, modified from CSIRO, cited Garnaut 2008

Bushfires and Health

• Since 1850, >800 deaths in bushfires
• Black Saturday fires claimed 173 lives
• Trauma, radiant heat exposure, dehydration, heat exhaustion,

smoke inhalation

• Public health- sanitation and water safety, infection control,

disease surveillance, accommodation, access to health care

• Bushfire smoke pollution

• Impacts post-fires include PTSD,

depression, anxiety, increased alcohol use

• 12 months after South Australia

Ash Wednesday fires, 42% population met criteria for a psychiatric diagnosis

• Children particularly vulnerable

Bushfires and Mental Health

Kinglake, Victoria 2009 Source: Country Fire Authority

Rockhampton flooding 2013 Source: ABC

Queensland 2011

• 78% state declared disaster zone
• 35 dead in floods
• 2.5 million people affected
• Cancellation of ~1400 elective

surgeries

• 500 clinical staff In QLD Health

deployed

• 17,000 tetanus/diptheria vaccines

distributed

• QLD health hotline received ~54,881

calls

• $18 million provided to repair health

infrastructure

• $37.8 million provided for mental health

support

(Queensland Health 2011)

Floods, Cyclone and Health

Food and Water Borne Disease

• Rate of notification of salmonella

increases with weekly & monthly temperature

• Flooding affects incidence of

cryptosporidiosis & giardiasis

Hotter temperatures increase

• zone, especially in urban areas

Pollen season changing

Air Pollution and Aeroallergens

Air quality and allergens

Air quality, asthma, and allergens

• Asthma affects 1 in 9 Australian children
• Airborne allergens, pollu6on, and ozone poten6a6ng

asthma and allergic rhini6s, leading to increased ED visits/ hospitaliza6ons (Heguy 2008, Sheffield et al 2011, Schmier and Ebi 2009, Ziska et al 2008, Beggs

2011)

• Sydney - hospitalisa6ons from ozone exposure will

increase by 40% by 2020, 200% by 2050 (CSIRO 2008)

Mental Health Issues

• Hospital admissions for mental & behavioural disorders significantly

increase in heatwaves (Hansen et al. 2008)

• Decrease in annual rainfall by 300mm associated with 8% increase in

suicide rates in rural NSW (Nicholls et al. 2006)

• Children suffer PTSD & higher rates of sleep disturbance, aggressive

behaviour, sadness, enuresis after weather disasters

Depression and Mental Illness in Those Areas Affected by Long-term Drought

Where to From Here?

• Governments have agreed to limit warming to ‘safe’ 2ºC, recent

Governments have agreed to limit warming to ‘safe’ 2ºC, recent Paris recognition to aim for 1.5ºC Paris recognition to aim for 1.5ºC

• World tracking for 4+ºC

World tracking for 4+ºC

• IPCC: risks ‘severe, widespread and irreversible impacts’,

IPCC: risks ‘severe, widespread and irreversible impacts’, implications for organised civil society implications for organised civil society

• Lancet 2009: “>2 degrees, adaptation is likely to be unachievable

Lancet 2009: “>2 degrees, adaptation is likely to be unachievable for most societies” for most societies”

• World Bank, Price Waterhouse Cooper, IEA: “our economy cannot

World Bank, Price Waterhouse Cooper, IEA: “our economy cannot survive 4ºC” survive 4ºC”

• >2 degrees or less, risk of ‘tipping points’ increased

>2 degrees or less, risk of ‘tipping points’ increased

ARE WE TRUMPED! NO-NO-NO

Health Care Responses

• Public health context

Public health context

• Leadership, advocacy for change

Leadership, advocacy for change

• Heat stress prevention, management

Heat stress prevention, management

• Surveillance of disease patterns

Surveillance of disease patterns

• Prevention

Prevention eg

• eg. vaccines, nutrition

. vaccines, nutrition

• Workforce education

Workforce education

• Surge capacity

Surge capacity

Adaption

• Prepare & respond

Prepare & respond

• Early warning & forecasts

Early warning & forecasts

• Planning, Resource allocation

Planning, Resource allocation

• Infrastructure

Infrastructure eg eg water catchment water catchment

• Resilience, strengthening health systems

Resilience, strengthening health systems

• Water & agriculture & sanitation

Water & agriculture & sanitation

• Disaster management

Disaster management

ADANI MINE-GREAT BARRIER REEF WE PROBABLY CANT HAVE BOTH YOU CHOOSE !

Image: The Guardian Figures: McGlade and Etkins 2014

Carbon Budgets

Most of the world’s fossil fuels must stay in the ground to have reasonable chance of staying <2ºC

Measures to Reduce Emissions

• Fair price on carbon pollution

Fair price on carbon pollution

• Feed-in tariffs

Feed-in tariffs

• Recognise environment and health in economics

Recognise environment and health in economics

• Rapid phase out of coal (and export)

Rapid phase out of coal (and export)

• Removing subsidies for fossil fuels

Removing subsidies for fossil fuels

• Limit clear felling of forests, protect ecosystems

Limit clear felling of forests, protect ecosystems

• Sustainable agriculture

Sustainable agriculture

• Planning, city design

Planning, city design

• Move to zero/low carbon economy

Move to zero/low carbon economy

The ACT on track to make 90% of its power from wind and solar by 2020

Image: The Age

The evidence is clear – why isn’t there more progress?

What are we prepared to do, for the future?