H. Patrick RAFIDIMANANTSOA OUTLINE 1. Overview 2. Research design - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

• H. Patrick RAFIDIMANANTSOA

• 1. Overview
• 2. Research design and

Methods

• 3. Outcomes
• 4. Supervisory structure
• 5. Progress and time schedule

OUTLINE

1

• Low income country
• 92.6 % people with < $2/day (World Bank, 2013)
• Human Development rank = 151/186 (UNDP, 2013)
• Gross National Income per capita = $430 (2011)

(World Bank, 2013))

• Regularly exposed to cyclones AND political

crises have slowed development

• 1. Overview

2

• Rice calories intake : 51% (IRRI, 2009)
• 63 % of Malagasy HH are small-scale rice

farmers (INSTAT, 2013)

• 1. Overview (cont.)

3

• A. Shepard - Conservation International - May 2012
• New Protected Area
• 381,000 ha
• REDD+, Reforestation projects
• Pressures: slash- and-burn cultivation,

mining

• Agricultural plains on both sides
• 1. Overview (cont.)

4

My three research questions

RQ 1: How does forest cover influence runoff and sedimentation load damages in the agricultural plains? RQ 2: What are the costs of sediment build-up and runoff damages to local farmers? RQ 3: To what extent is forest cover likely to influence the livelihoods of small-scale rice producers?

• 2. Research design and Methods

5

p4ges my work

p4ges and my work

6

Main Target = Rice Farmers’ livelihoods

Local welfare costs due to flooding events and sedimentation Local welfare costs due to restrictions of forest use and access Runoff damage and sedimentation Agriculture: Impacts on rice producers Dry season flows Forest cover Poverty alleviation

SE team Hydro team Global PES Land-use changes in CAZ SE team

• 2. Research design and Methods (cont.)

RQ 1: How does forest cover influence runoff damage and sedimentation load in the agricultural plains? RQ 2: What are the net costs of runoff damage and sediment build-up to local farmers?

WaterWorld

Interviews RQ 3: To what extent is forest cover likely to influence the livelihoods of small- scale rice producers? Synthesis

Maps

• Alter. Scen.

Baseline

Spatial data Scenario Analyses Site identification

vs

Crop loss Coping mech.

• 2. Research design and Methods (cont.)

7

Eco. valuation technique Focus Group discussion

• Research outputs: Scientific papers
• Applied value of the research: Policy briefs
• New capacity in Madagascar

8

• 3. Outcomes of the fellowship

Dr Julia Jones Dr Mark Mulligan Dr Mahesh Poudyal Prof Bruno Ramamonjisoa Lead mentor Scientific writing,

• verall management

Hydrological modelling Economic valuation of environmental services and social research methods

• 4. Supervisory structure

9

Since 1st June 2014:

• Meetings with mentors
• Literature review
• WaterWorld applications
• 5. Progress and proposed time schedule

10

2014 JUNE JULY AUG SEPT ESPA Events attendance

• Lit. review on forest hydrology

Scenario analyses Writing “Intro.” and “Method.” Report for ESPA 2015 SEPT OCT NOV DEC Refining costs estimates methods Ethics Questionnaire design and test Ground-truthing in Mada Adjustment of field protocol Report for ESPA

• 5. Progress and proposed time schedule (cont.)

11

2016 J F M A M J J A S O N D Data collection in Madagascar Processing field data Writing & validation of Results Writing & validation of Discussions Writing & validation of Conclusions Submit paper manuscripts Writing of policy briefs Final report for ESPA

• 5. Progress and proposed time schedule (cont.)

12

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

h.rafidimanantsoa@bangor.ac.uk rafidimanantsoa.patrick@gmail.com