Greater Nashvilles Moment Achieving inclusive economic growth Am - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Greater Nashvilles Moment Achieving inclusive economic growth Am Amy Liu, u, Brook ookings ings Met etropoli olita tan n Policy cy Program ram | @amy_liuw Nashville Area Chamber and Partnership 2020 Annual Celebration|
Am Amy Liu, u, Brook
ings Met etropoli
tan n Policy cy Program ram | @amy_liuw
Nashville Area Chamber and Partnership 2020 Annual Celebration| September 26, 2019
Achieving inclusive economic growth
A new w fram amework k for growth wth
“The goal is to put a regional economy on a trajectory
raises standards of living for all.”
1
Economic and demographic changes within Greater Washington
2
Why place matters to the regional economy
3
HQ2’s implications and what leaders in the region should do
1
Nashville’s performance
growth
2
The complexity posed by economic dynamics
3
The
created by embracing inclusion
1 2 3
Nashville’s performance
growth The complexity posed by economic dynamics The
created by embracing inclusion
1 2 3
GROWTH TH INCLUSION ION PROSPE SPERIT RITY
Median an wage Jobs Entrepreneur trepreneurship ip Productiv ductivity ity Stan andar dard d of Living ing Avera rage ge wage Emplo ployment yment rate Relati lative e pover erty ty rate Output put
Ever ery y re region
uld d pur ursue sue thre ree e goals ls
th
2007-2017
Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2019
GROWTH TH PROSPERIT OSPERITY INCLUS USION ION
1 2 3
th
2007-2017 Median an wage Productiv ductivity ity Stan andar dard d of Living ing Avera rage ge wage Emplo ployment yment rate Relativ lative e pover erty rate
Nashville’s regional economy is strong but less inclusive
th
2007-2017 Jobs Entrepreneur trepreneurship ip Output put
Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2019
GROWTH TH
Job growt wth
200 2007-20 2017
7.7% 17.2% 10.3% 29.6%
Top 100 metro areas Nashville Indianapolis Austin
1 2 3
Nashville’s regional economy is strong but less inclusive
Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2019
GROWTH TH
Job growt wth
200 2007-20 2017
PROSPERIT OSPERITY
Output tput per capit apita growth wth
200 2007-20 2017
4.6% 10.4% 2.9% 9.5%
Top 100 metro areas Nashville Indianapolis Austin
1 2 3
Nashville’s regional economy is strong but less inclusive
7.7% 17.2% 10.3% 29.6%
Top 100 metro areas Nashville Indianapolis Austin
Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2019
GROWTH TH
Job growt wth
200 2007-20 2017
1 2 3
PROSPERIT OSPERITY
Output tput per capit apita growth wth
200 2007-20 2017
INCLUS USION ION
Median ian earn arning ings s growth wth
200 2007-20 2017
Top 100 metro areas Nashville Indianapolis Austin
0.0%
15.9%
Nashville’s regional economy is strong but less inclusive
4.6% 10.4% 2.9% 9.5%
Top 100 metro areas Nashville Indianapolis Austin
7.7% 17.2% 10.3% 29.6%
Top 100 metro areas Nashville Indianapolis Austin
Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2019
1 2 3
EM EMPLOYM YMENT NT Nashville metro area employment rate
60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Black
6.9%
Hispanic
6.6%
White
1.7%
Empl mploymen yment t rates es in in Nashvi ville le have e in increa eased ed for r all races es
Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2019
1 2 3
Nashville metro area
$15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
White
2.4%
Black
9.7%
Hispanic
0.4%
But the e wage ge ga gap h p has wid iden ened ed bet betwee een whit ites es and d pe peopl ple e
lor
EM EMPLOYM YMENT NT MED EDIAN N EA EARNINGS NINGS Nashville metro area employment rate
60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Black
6.9%
Hispanic
6.6%
White
1.7%
1 2 3
Nashville metro area
$15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
White
2.4%
Black
9.7%
Hispanic
0.4%
Mea eanwhi while le, , wages es are re not not keep eeping ng pace ce with the e ri risin ing g co cost of li living ing
MED EDIAN N EA EARNINGS NINGS
Increase in the Nashville metro area’s median gross rent, 2007-2017
REN ENT T INCREASE CREASE
Source: ACS 1-year estimate surveys, 2007-2017; Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2019
Source: Brookings, “Tech is (still) concentrating in the Bay Area,” 2018
0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5%
Chang nge in n share re of na natio ional nal digital ital services ices jobs bs
Top 100 metros, 2015-2017 San Francisco, CA Seattle, WA San Jose, CA Los Angeles, CA Austin, TX Nashville, TN 2 3 1
Finally, while Nashville is emerging as a tech hub…
1 2 3
…the region has an opportunity to prevent the stark income in inequa equalit ity y that pl plagu gue e hig igh in innovation ion cen enter ers
Household usehold income me inequality uality tren ends ds
Most populous U.S. cities, 2014-2016
0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7
Ratio of change between the 20th percentile and 95th percentile San Francisco Seattle San Jose Los Angeles Austin Nashville
Source: Brookings, “City and metropolitan income inequality data reveal ups and downs through 2016,” 2018
2 3 1
Nashville’s performance
growth The complexity posed by economic dynamics The
created by embracing inclusion
10 20 30
Digitalization italization is tra ransf nsform rming ing the e dem eman and d for r skill lls
1 2 3
Source: Brookings, “What GM’s layoffs reveal about the digitalization of the auto industry,” 2018
10% 20% 30%
Computer network support specialists Software developers, system specialists Drilling & boring machine operations Foundry mold & coremarkers
Growth rates within auto industry occupations, 2002 - 2016
Automa
tion
ill affec ect t les ess-educa educated ed pe peopl ple e & w & worker ers s of color lor the e most t
1 2 3
jobs in the Nashville metro area are at “high risk” of automation Average automation potential by education level or race, 2017 49% 29% 47% 44% 40% 39%
Less than a bachelor’s Bachelor’s
Hispanic Black White Asian & Pacific Islander
Source: Brookings, “Automation and Artificial Intelligence,” 2019
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Employment growth across occupations, 1980-2015
1 2 3
Occupational percentile
(ranked from lowest to highest average wage)
Source: David Autor, “Polanyi’s Paradox and the shape of employment growth,” 2015
A sh shrinkin rinking g share re of ne new jobs bs pay y mi middle dle-cl class ass wages es
Good jobs:
1 2 3
13% 10% 21% 55%
Good jobs Nashville metro area, 2017
Source: Brookings, “Opportunity Industries,” 2018
Too few w jobs bs offer er worker ers s path thways ys to the e mi middle ddle cl class ss
1 2 3
Good jobs
Source: Brookings, “Opportunity Industries,” 2018
Promising jobs
years
Promising jobs:
Too few w jobs bs offer er worker ers s path thways ys to the e mi middle ddle cl class ss
13% 10% 21% 55%
Nashville metro area, 2017
1 2 3
Good jobs
Source: Brookings, “Opportunity Industries,” 2018
Promising jobs
criteria but…
more High-skill
High-skill opportunity jobs
Too few w jobs bs offer er worker ers s path thways ys to the e mi middle ddle cl class ss
13% 10% 21% 55%
Nashville metro area, 2017
1 2 3
Good jobs
Source: Brookings, “Opportunity Industries,” 2018
Promising jobs High-skill opportunity jobs
the criteria for good, promising,
Other jobs: Other jobs
Too few w jobs bs offer er worker ers s path thways ys to the e mi middle ddle cl class ss
13% 10% 21% 55%
Nashville metro area, 2017
2 3 1
Source: Brookings, “Under US housing policies, homeowners mostly win, while renters mostly lose,” July 2018; Hired, “The Opportunity Index,” 2016; John R. Logan and Brian J. Stults, “The Persistence of Segregation in the Metropolis,” 2011
Structura uctural l and d unconsc
ious bia ias lim imit its s some me worker ers s from
ful ully ly pa partic icip ipat atin ing g in in t the e mode dern n ec econom nomy
Homeownership vs rental housing
2 3 1
Source: Brookings, “Under US housing policies, homeowners mostly win, while renters mostly lose,” July 2018; Hired, “The Opportunity Index,” 2016; John R. Logan and Brian J. Stults, “The Persistence of Segregation in the Metropolis,” 2011
Structura uctural l and d unconsc
ious bia ias lim imit its s some me worker ers s from
ful ully ly pa partic icip ipat atin ing g in in t the e mode dern n ec econom nomy
The typical white person lives in a neighborhood that is 75% white.
are the most common way people get jobs Homeownership vs rental housing Professional networks
3 1 2
Nashville’s performance
growth The complexity posed by economic dynamics The
created by embracing inclusion
Le Less s ec econo nomi mic c excl clusion usion le lead ads s to hig igher er ec econo nomi mic c growth wth
22% 1.4% 2.9%
Source: Brookings, “Opportunity for Growth,” 2017
1 2 3
Reducing barriers for women and Black people accounted for 27%
growth between 1960-2010
White e women
Other er fa factor
s infl flue uenci ncing ng GDP per person son growth th
Black ck women Black ck men
1 2 3
Source: Center for Talent Innovation, “Innovation, Diversity, and Market Growth,” 2013; McKinsey & Co., “Delivering through Diversity,” 2018
more likely to experience higher profits when boards are culturally diverse
more likely to
when executive teams have high cultural diversity
more likely to make it safe to risk proposing novel ideas when companies have diverse leadership
Diver erse se le leader dership ship ma makes es co compa pani nies es mo more re productiv
1 2 3
Source: Glassdoor online survey, 2014
consider diversity important when deciding where to work
Jo Job b seek eeker ers s val value ue a di diver erse se workf rkfor
ce
1 2 3
Source: Brookings, “Meet the millions of young adults who are out of work,” 2019
There re is un untapp apped ed potentia ential l in y n young ung adults ults
Share of Nashville-Davidson County out-of-work youth looking for jobs
In school: 15% Less than HS: 16% High school: 50% Some college: 26% Associate: 0% Bachelor's: 7%
2 3 1
Qua uali lity ty jo
jobs and d busin ines ess s dy dynamis ism Skil ille led d work rker ers Ac Acces cessi sible ble & connec ected ed pl places es
Th Thre ree e pill llars ars of act ction:
nclusiv lusive e ec econo nomic mic growth wth
1 2 3
Min innea eapo polis is-Sa Sain int t Pau Paul Reg egio iona nal l vis isio ion
The Greater MSP region leads the world in inclusive economic growth by welcoming all, empowering talent, and igniting innovation
Par Partner ersh ship ip mis ission ion
The Greater MSP partnership will accelerate regional competitiveness and inclusive economic growth through job creation, capital investment, and execution of strategic initiatives
Bus usin ines ess gr group ups s ar are e lea eadi ding ng t the e tran ansit ition ion to in inclusi usive ec economic
growth th
1 2 3
Indi diana anapolis polis
CICP & Indy Chamber
Central ral New Y w York
CenterState CEO
San Diego go
San Diego Regional EDC
economic inclusion
for low-income workers
revitalization
Busin ines ess gr groups ps are l e lea eadi ding t g the e transit ition ion to in inclusiv sive e ec economic
growth th
1 2 3
Northe theast st Ohio io
The Fund for our Economic Future
Traded sector growth Growth in young firms Rising prosperity Full employment Economic security Employment equity Income equity Geographic equity
A continuously regenerating economy… …with good jobs and rising incomes… …for everyone.
Northe theast st Ohio io has ado dopt pted ed new met etrics ics to ref eflec ect it its vis isio ion
TEC ECHNICAL ICAL TALEN ENT
“Include information
education programs related to computer science.” “Sidewalks, bike lanes, trams, metro, bus, light rail, train…” “…energy-efficient lighting… as well as public plazas and pockets of green space.”
SUSTAINA AINABLE BLE PLACEM EMAKIN AKING
“Proximity to an international airport and major highways …
paramount.”
GLOB OBAL ALLY Y CON ONNEC ECTED TED INFR FRASTRUCTUR UCTURE
“This project requires … the presence and support of a diverse population.”
DIVER ERSIT SITY
1 2 3
Ama mazon
naled what t the e mo moder ern n ec econo nomy y val value ues
Am Amy Liu, u, Brook
ings Met etropoli
tan n Policy cy Program ram | @amy_liuw
Nashville Area Chamber and Partnership 2020 Annual Celebration| September 26, 2019
Implications for greater Nashville