Government Debt Securities Management November 2011 Directorate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Government Debt Securities Management November 2011 Directorate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Government Debt Securities Management November 2011 Directorate General of Debt Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia www.dmo.or.id Financing Budget Deficit Trend, 2004 2011 2 Government securities are the major

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SLIDE 1

November 2011

Government Debt Securities Management

Directorate General of Debt Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia www.dmo.or.id

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SLIDE 2

2

Financing Budget Deficit Trend, 2004 – 2011

Government securities are the major source of financing for the budget deficit, debt refinancing and infrastructure support

Budget Deficit Financing

Notes: * : Based on APBN 2011 ** : Based on APBN-P 2011 Other based on LKPP

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2011** Govt Securities (Netto), % to GDP 1,1 0,5 0,9 1,3 0,1 1,6 0,7 1,8 1,8 Budget Defisit, % to GDP 0,3 0,8 1,1 1,4 1,7 1,8 1,5 1,8 2,1 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50

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SLIDE 3

Financing Trend, 2005 – 2011

Budget Deficit Financing

(trillion rupiah) (% to GDP)

3

Notes: + Based on Audited Budget Report ++ Based on Realization Budget 2010, Unaudited +++ Based on Budget 2011

36,0 57,2 85,9 99,5 91,1 126,7 (26,6) (23,9) (13,2) (15,5) (4,57) (0,4) 20,0 9,1 16,5 28,6 5,0

  • 2,4

29,1

49,8

4,1 88,7 46,8 124,7

0,9 1,3 0,1 1,6 0,7 1,8

(2,0) (1,0)

  • 1,0

2,0 3,0 4,0

  • 70
  • 35

35 70 105 140

2006+ 2007+ 2008+ 2009+ 2010++ 2011+++

Govt Securities - net External Loan - net Others/Non-Debt - net Budget Deficit Budget Deficit, % to GDP (RHS)

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SLIDE 4

47% 39% 35% 33% 28% 26% 25% 24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F* 2012**

Debt to GDP Ratio and Debt Service Ratio 2004 – 2011

4

Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP) Debt Service to GDP Ratio (%) Interest Expenses to Revenue and Expenditure Ratio (%) Interest Expenses to Tax Revenue & Central Government Expenditure Ratio (%)

Notes: *) Based on budget 2010 realization Central Government Expenditure = Total Expenditure minus Transfer to Regions Debt Service = Interest Payment + Principal

13,17% 12,40% 11,28% 9,01% 11,05% 8,88% 9,11% 9,52%

12,79% 11,85% 10,53% 8,97% 10,00% 8,48% 8,07% 8,68%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F* 2012**

to Revenue to Expenditure

4,6% 5,7% 5,0% 4,0% 3,8% 3,2% 3,2% 3,5%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F* 2012**

18,8% 19,3% 17,0% 14,2% 15,1% 12,2% 12,1% 12,1% 18,1% 18,0% 15,8% 12,8% 14,9% 12,7% 11,7% 12,9%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F* 2012**

to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditure

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SLIDE 5

5

Moody’s, S&P, Fitch and JCR have all recently upgraded Indonesia’s credit rating based on Indonesia’s sustained strong economic growth

Moody’s (Ba1 Stable)

2011: Ba1 2010: Ba2 2009: Ba3  Ba2 2008: Ba3 2007: B1  Ba3

  • “We have upgraded the sovereign credit ratings as the momentum in the economy is expected to be

sustained by steady domestic demand, a reasonable pace and sequencing of policy and structural reforms, and rising foreign direct investment. Furthermore, the country’s debt position and reserve adequacy remain on an improving trajectory relative to most of its ratings peers”

S&P (BB+ Positive)

2011 :BB -> BB+ 2010 : BB 2009: BB- 2008: BB- 2007: BB-

  • “The main factor supporting this decision is continuing improvements in the government's balance sheet

and external liquidity, against a backdrop of a resilient economic performance and cautious fiscal management”

  • “S&P noted the improving government's financial performance as reflected by declining government debt

burden and increase the accumulated foreign reserves as the key to improving Indonesia's rating”

Fitch (BB+ Positive)

2011 : BB+ 2010: BB  BB+ 2009: BB 2008: BB-  BB 2007: BB-

  • “The Positive Outlook reflects Fitch's view that Indonesia's favourable macroeconomic prospects are likely

to see the credit profile strengthen further over the next twelve to eighteen months, despite near-term risks from inflation and potentially volatile capital flows”

JCR (BBB- Stable)

2010: BB+  BBB- 2009: BB  BB+ 2008: BB 2007: BB

  • “The upgrading reflects Indonesia's (i) enhanced political and social stability along with the progress in

democratization and decentralization (ii) sustainable economic growth outlook underpinned by solid domestic demand (iii) alleviated public debt burden as a result of prudent fiscal management, (iv) reinforced resilience to external shocks stemming from the foreign reserves accumulation…”

R&I (BB+ Positive)

2010: BB+ 2009: BB+ 2008: BB+ 2007: BB  BB+

  • “Supported by private consumption, Indonesia is expected to secure a real gross domestic product (GDP)

growth rate in the 4% range for 2009. The economic structure, which depends substantially on domestic demand, cushioned the negative impact resulting from the drop in external demand that was triggered by the global recession”.

  • “The government has maintained disciplined fiscal management since President Yudhoyono assumed
  • ffice in 2004. Because of economic stimulus measures centered on tax reductions, the size of the fiscal

deficit is expected to expand slightly in 2009, to 2.4% of GDP”.

Indonesia’s Credit Rating

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SLIDE 6

6

Debt Securities Strategy 2011

  • Prioritizing issuance of government securities in domestic market

 Supporting money market and capital market development to strengthen financial system  Promoting the creation of investment-oriented society  Supporting efficient monetary management

  • Foreign currency government securities issuance is complementary to

domestic currency government securities issuance

 Diversification of financing instruments to widen the market  Maintaining the presence of government financial instruments in global market  Avoiding crowding out in domestic market

  • Government securities issuance is taking into account the support to the

implementation of Asset Liability Management with Bank of Indonesia

  • Continuing development of government securities program to enhance the

depth and liquidity, in secondary market

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SLIDE 7

Budget 2011 & 2012

Trillion IDR

7

Billion IDR

2011 - Budget

2011 - Revised Budget

2012 - Proposed Budget

Deficit 2011 (124.656,5) (150.836,7) (125.620,0) Amortization (133.767,8) (132.184,8) (152.991,0) External Loan (47.817,7) (47.234,7) (47.260,0) Govt Securities (incl Buyback) (85.950,1) (84.950,1) (105.731,0) Two Steps Loan (11.724,8) (11.724,8) (9.016,4) Financing Needs (270.149,1) (294.746,3) (287.627,4) Financing Sources 270.149,1 294.746,3 287.627,4 Non Debt (537,9) 25.931,4 (8.819,2) Debt (Gross) 270.687,0 268.814,9 296.446,6 Govt Securities 210.754,0 211.179,9 240.327,8 Program Loan 19.812,7 19.201,8 16.857,1 Project Loan 39.120,4 36.981,1 39.127,1 Domestic Loan 1.000,0 1.452,1 134,6

2011 - Revised Budget % of GDP 2012 - Proposed Budget % of GDP Total Revenue & Grants 1.169,9 16,2% 1.292,9 15,9%

  • f which

Tax Revenue 878,7 12,2% 1.019,3 12,6% Non Tax Revenue 286,6 4,0% 273,5 3,4% 0,0% 0,0% Expenditure 1.320,8 18,3% 1.320,7 16,3%

  • f which

Interest payment 106,6 1,5% 123,1 1,5% 0,0% 0,0% Subsidy 237,2 3,3% 208,9 2,6% 0,0% 0,0% Primary Balance (44,3)

  • 0,6%

(2,5)

  • 0,1%

Overall Balance (deficit) (150,8)

  • 2,1%

125,6 1,5% Financing 150,8 2,1% 125,6 1,5% Non Debt 25,5 0,4% (9,6)

  • 0,1%

Debt 125,3 1,7% 135,2 1,7% 0,0% 0,0% Govt Securities (Net) 126,7 1,8% 134,6 1,7% 0,0% 0,0% Domestic Official Borrowing 1,5 0,0% 0,9 0,0% External Official Borrowing (Net) (2,8) 0,0% (0,3) 0,0% Disbursement 44,5 0,6% 55,9 0,7% Program Loan 19,2 0,3% 16,8 0,2% Project Loan 25,3 0,3% 39,1 0,5% On lending 19,8 0,3% (9,0)

  • 0,1%

Repayment (47,2)

  • 0,7%

(47,2)

  • 0,6%

Assumptions: GDP (trillion) 7.226,9 8.119,5 Growth (%) 6,5 6,7 Inflation (%) 5,65 5,3 3-months SPN (% avg) 5,6 6,5 Rp / USD (avg) 8.700,0 8.800,0 Oil Price (USD/barrel) 95,0 90,0 Oil Lifting (MBCD) 0,945 950,0

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SLIDE 8

8

List of Primary Dealers & Benchmark Series

1. Bank Mandiri 2. BNI 3. BRI 4. BCA 5. Bank Danamon 6. Bank Permata 7. BII 8. Bank CIMB Niaga 9. Panin Bank 10. Citibank 11. Deutsche Bank 12. HSBC 13. JPMorgan 14. Standard Chartered Bank 15. Bahana Sekuritas 16. Danareksa Sekuritas 17. Mandiri Sekuritas 18. Trimegah Securities

Benchmark Series for 2011:

FR0055 (15/09/16, 7.375%)  5Y

FR0053 (15/07/21, 8.250%)  10Y

FR0056 (15/09/26, 8.375%)  15Y

FR0054 (15/08/30, 9.500%)  20Y

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SLIDE 9

9

Debt Issuance Program 2011

Calendar of Issuance

Month Date Type Tenor (sector)

1)

Target (Rp)

January January 18, 2011 ON 5, 10, 20 year SPN January 25, 2011 ON 10, 15, 20 year SPN February February 8, 2011 ON 5, 15, 20 year SPN 1 year February 21, 2011 ON 5, 20 year SPN 1 year March March 1, 2011 IFR 6, 14, 25 year 1.500.000.000.000 March 8, 2011 ON 5, 15 year SPN 1 year March 15, 2011 IFR 14, 25 year 1.000.000.000.000 March 22, 2011 ON 5, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year Issuance in 1st Quarter 2) 42.750.000.000.000 April April 5, 2011 ON 10, 15 year SPN 3 month, 1 year April 12, 2011 IFR 6, 25 year 500.000.000.000 April 19, 2011 ON 5, 15, 30 year SPN 3 month April 26, 2011 IFR 25 year 500.000.000.000 May May 3, 2011 ON 5, 10, 15 year SPN 3 month, 1 year May 10, 2011 IFR 5, 15 year

  • May 24, 2011

ON 5, 10, 30 year SPN May 31, 2011 IFR 5, 15 year

  • June

June 7, 2011 ON 10, 15, 20 year SPN 1 year June 14, 2011 IFR 5, 15 year

  • June 21, 2011

ON 10, 30 year SPN 3 month, 1 year June 28, 2011 IFR 5, 15 year

  • Issuance in 2nd Quarter 2)

37.550.000.000.000 5.450.000.000.000 6.050.000.000.000 5.200.000.000.000 5.500.000.000.000 6.500.000.000.000 7.000.000.000.000 10.000.000.000.000 7.000.000.000.000 6.600.000.000.000 7.500.000.000.000 7.000.000.000.000 3.000.000.000.000

Month Date Type Tenor (sector)

1)

Target (Rp)

July July 5, 2011 ON 10, 15, 20, 30 year SPN 3 month, 1 year July 12, 2011 IFR/PBS 5, 15 year

  • July 19, 2011

ON 10, 20, 30 years SPN 3 month, 1 year August August 2, 2011 IFR/PBS 15, 25 year SPN-S 6 month August 9, 2011 ON 10, 15 year SPN 3 month, 1 year August 16, 2011 ON 5, 10, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year August 23, 2011 IFR/PBS 25 year SPN-S 6 month September September 13, 2011 ON 10, 15, 30 year SPN 1 year September 20, 2011 IFR/PBS 5, 15 year

  • September 27, 2011

ON 5, 15, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year Issuance in 3rd Quarter 2) 38.140.000.000.000 October October 4, 2011 ON 10, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year October 11, 2011 IFR/PBS 6, 14, 21, 25 year SPN-S 6 month October 18, 2011 ON 10, 15 year SPN 3 month, 1 year November November 1, 2011 ON 15, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year November 22, 2011 ON 5, 15 year SPN 3 month, 1 year December December 6, 2011 ON 10, 20 year SPN 3 month, 1 year Issuance in 4th Quarter 2) 39.900.000.000.000 9.400.000.000.000 830.000.000.000 8.000.000.000.000 4.150.000.000.000 7.500.000.000.000 7.450.000.000.000 810.000.000.000

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SLIDE 10

The Government’s funding plans are well on-track with realized net financing at 96.88% of gross issuance required in the 2011 Budget  Issuance in the domestic market will be prioritized  Issuance of a variety of domestic government securities – Fixed-rate – Variable rate – T-Bills – Zero coupon – Retail bonds – Syariah securities – Sukuk and Retail Sukuk  International bonds Net Issuance Realization as of November 24, 2011

Source: Ministry of Finance 1. Redemption and buyback amount subject to change 2. GDS stands for Government Debt Securities (SUN)

2011 Funding Strategy Progress

10

2011 Issuance Program IDR tr 2011 Revised Budget Government Securities Net Financing: 126,65 Redemption + Buyback (1) (84,53) Net Realization (November 24, 2011) 121,05 Gross Issuance: 204,60 Coupon GDS (2) 98,85 Retail bonds 11,00 Retail Sukuk 7,34 Zero coupon GDS (2) 40,00 Zero coupon GIS 1,32 Domestic Sukuk + SDHI 15,61 International Sukuk 9,04 International bonds 21,44 Redemption + Buyback (83,55)

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SLIDE 11

Issuance of Domestic Government Securities in 2011,

up to November 24, 2011

11

[in IDR Million]

Note: IFR: Islamic Fixed Rate Auction Date Series Settlement Date Maturity Coupon WAY/ WAP Target Total Bids Total Accepted Bids to Accepted Total 2006 26.875.000 98.850.550 42.578.650 2,32 Total 2007 47.000.000 205.057.495 86.379.695 2,37 Total 2008 58.000.000 158.483.440 86.931.640 1,82 Total 2009 64.190.000 227.140.120 97.756.020 2,32 Total 2010 113.671.500 366.720.245 136.861.860 2,68 Jan-11 10.000.000 27.015.000 11.250.000 2,40 Feb-11 22.000.000 47.014.210 25.341.410 1,86 Mar-11 14.000.000 58.346.400 19.500.000 2,99 Apr-11 17.500.000 49.234.000 16.600.000 2,97 May-11 10.000.000 32.008.400 12.950.000 2,47 Jun-11 10.000.000 31.336.600 10.000.000 3,13 Jul-11 14.950.000 60.287.900 14.950.000 4,03 IFR0005

  • 702.000
  • IFR0007

15-Jan-25 10,25% 7,78% 50.000 40.000 1,25 IFR0006

  • 157.000
  • IFR0010

15-Feb-36 10,00% 8,63% 420.000 200.000 2,10 SPN-S03022012 03-Feb-12

  • 3,80%

8.259.500 570.000 14,49 SPN03111110 10-Nop-11 2.835.200 SPN12120810 10-Agust-12 2.553.300 FR0055 15-Sep-16 1.315.000 FR0053 15-Jul-21 855.000 FR0056 15-Sep-26 1.515.000 FR0057 15-Mei-41 1.500.000 SPN03111118 18-Nop-11

  • 3,75%

4.771.000 1.300.000 3,67 SPN12120818 18-Agust-12

  • 4,42%

5.581.900 1.800.000 3,10 FR0055 15-Sep-16 7,38% 6,17% 2.560.000 850.000 3,01 FR0053 15-Jul-21 8,25% 6,93% 2.788.200 1.450.000 1,92 FR0058 15-Jun-32 8,25% 7,94% 6.712.000 4.000.000 1,68 10.210.000 42.575.100 10.210.000 4,17 Aug-11 10.210.000 42.575.100 10.210.000 4,17 SPN03111214

  • 1.272.400
  • SPN12120914

14-Sep-12

  • 4,50%

7.059.800 1.700.000 4,15 FR0053 15-Jul-21 8,25% 6,70% 3.020.000 650.000 4,65 FR0059 15-Mei-27 7,00% 7,17% 4.979.000 3.650.000 1,36 FR0057 15-Mei-41 9,50% 7,71% 2.815.000 2.000.000 1,41 SPN03111228 28-Des-11

  • 5,23%

2.140.000 150.000 14,27 SPN12120914 14-Sep-12

  • 5,25%

1.900.000 350.000 5,43 FR0055 15-Sep-16 7,38% 6,47% 2.253.000 1.000.000 2,25 FR0059 15-Mei-27 7,00% 7,57% 1.535.000 1.150.000 1,33 FR0058 15-Jun-32 8,25% 7,84% 2.425.000 1.500.000 1,62 12.150.000 29.399.200 12.150.000 2,42 Sep-11 12.150.000 29.399.200 12.150.000 2,42 SPN03120105 05-Jan-12

  • 5,46%

1.562.900 750.000 2,08 SPN12121005 05-Okt-12

  • 5,76%

4.060.000 3.000.000 1,35 FR0060 15-Apr-17 6,25% 6,43% 1.567.000 950.000 1,65 FR0061 15-Mei-22 7,00% 7,20% 1.110.000 950.000 1,17 FR0058 15-Jun-32 8,25% 7,70% 1.170.000 350.000 3,34 SPN03120119 19-Jan-12

  • 4,81%

1.927.600 200.000 9,64 SPN12121005 05-Okt-12

  • 4,90%

6.744.500 1.100.000 6,13 FR0060 15-Apr-17 6,25% 5,75% 2.915.000 1.800.000 1,62 FR0061 15-Mei-22 7,00% 6,45% 3.327.000 2.200.000 1,51 FR0059 15-Mei-27 7,00% 6,80% 2.790.000 700.000 3,99 12.000.000 27.174.000 12.000.000 2,26 Oct-11 12.000.000 27.174.000 12.000.000 2,26 SPN03120202 02-Feb-12

  • 4,72%

2.740.000 1.100.000 2,49 SPN12121102 02-Nop-12

  • 5,05%

5.700.000 2.750.000 2,07 FR0061 15-Mei-22 7,00% 6,45% 5.635.000 1.700.000 3,31 FR0059 15-Mei-27 7,00% 6,87% 2.839.000 450.000 6,31 FR0058 15-Jun-32 8,25,% 7,23% 1.568.000 550.000 2,85 SPN03120223 23-Feb-12

  • 4,47%

1.893.000 300.000 6,31 SPN12121102 02-Nop-12

  • 4,67%

4.400.000 1.600.000 2,75 FR0060 15-Apr-17 6,25% 5,60% 1.581.000 950.000 1,66 FR0061 15-Mei-22 7,00% 6,48% 2.286.000 2.250.000 1,02 FR0059 15-Mei-27 7,00% 6,82% 2.056.000 1.900.000 1,08 13.550.000 30.698.000 13.550.000 2,27 Nov-11 13.550.000 30.698.000 13.550.000 2,27 TOTAL 2011 146.360.000 435.088.810 158.501.410 2,75 TOTAL 512.996.500 1.625.664.860 668.835.775 2,43 22-Nov-11 7.000.000 24-Nop-11 01-Nov-11 03-Nop-11 6.550.000 27-Sep-11 04-Oct-11 29-Sep-11 4.150.000 06-Okt-11 6.000.000 02-Aug-11 810.000 04-Agust-11

  • 18-Oct-11

20-Okt-11 6.000.000 13-Sep-11 15-Sep-11 8.000.000

  • 09-Aug-11

16-Aug-11 19-Agust-11 9.400.000

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SLIDE 12

Government Debt Securities Market Update

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SLIDE 13

13

Government Securities Profile

  • Since October 2006, Government and Central Bank committed to replace interest payment of Promissory Notes to Bank Indonesia (SU-002 & SU-004) with

new bond (SU-007) and omitted indexation of SU-002 & SU-004

GOVERNMENT DEBT SECURITIES (GDS) Des '07 Des '08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 24-Nov-11

  • 1. Zero Coupon

IDR 14.669 IDR 21.503 IDR 33.386 IDR 32.307 IDR 30.157 IDR 26.112 IDR 24.462 IDR 24.412 IDR 25.512 IDR 28.612 IDR 32.562

  • 1. Government Treasury Bills

IDR 4.169 IDR 10.012 IDR 24.700 IDR 29.795 IDR 27.645 IDR 23.600 IDR 21.950 IDR 21.900 IDR 23.000 IDR 26.100 IDR 30.050

  • 2. Zero Coupon Bond

IDR 10.500 IDR 11.491 IDR 8.686 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 IDR 2.512 Government Domestic Bonds

  • 1. Fixed Rate *) +)

IDR 294.453 IDR 353.558 IDR 393.543 IDR 440.396 IDR 451.278 IDR 491.950 IDR 502.749 IDR 504.956 IDR 497.787 IDR 509.342 IDR 517.142

  • 2. Variable Rate *)

IDR 168.625 IDR 145.934 IDR 143.286 IDR 142.795 IDR 142.795 IDR 136.413 IDR 136.413 IDR 136.413 IDR 135.063 IDR 135.063 IDR 135.063

  • 2. Sub Total Tradable GDS

IDR 477.747 IDR 520.995 IDR 570.215 IDR 615.498 IDR 624.231 IDR 654.475 IDR 663.624 IDR 665.781 IDR 658.363 IDR 673.018 IDR 684.767

  • 3. Promissory Notes to Bank Indonesia **) ***)

IDR 259.404 IDR 258.160 IDR 251.875 IDR 248.432 IDR 248.432 IDR 246.580 IDR 246.580 IDR 245.790 IDR 245.790 IDR 245.463 IDR 245.463

  • 4. Total GDS (2+3)

IDR 737.151 IDR 779.155 IDR 822.090 IDR 863.930 IDR 872.663 IDR 901.055 IDR 910.204 IDR 911.571 IDR 904.153 IDR 918.481 IDR 930.230

  • 5. Total Government International Bonds *)

USD 7.000 USD 11.200 USD 14.200 USD 16.200 USD 16.200 USD 18.700 USD 18.700 USD 18.700 USD 18.700 USD 18.700 USD 18.700 35.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥ 95.000 ¥

  • 6. TOTAL GOV'T DEBT SECURITIES (4+(5*Exchange Rate Assumpt IDR 803.084

IDR 901.795 IDR 959.130 IDR 1.020.062 IDR 1.029.870 IDR 1.071.957 IDR 1.079.711 IDR 1.081.817 IDR 1.080.091 IDR 1.094.322 IDR 1.110.310 GOVERNMENT ISLAMIC DEBT SECURITIES (GIDS) Government Domestic Islamic Bonds

  • 1. Fixed Rate *)++)

IDR - IDR 4.700 IDR 11.533 IDR 25.717 IDR 25.717 IDR 36.558 IDR 36.558 IDR 37.298 IDR 37.298 IDR 37.668 IDR 37.668

  • 2. Zero Coupon

IDR 900 IDR 900 IDR 1.320 IDR 1.320 Government International Islamic Bonds

  • 1. Fixed Rate *)

USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 650 USD 1.650

  • 7. Total Tradable GIDS

IDR - IDR 4.700 IDR 17.643 IDR 31.561 IDR 31.604 IDR 42.146 IDR 42.088 IDR 43.749 IDR 43.933 IDR 44.731 IDR 53.896

  • 8. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES +++)

IDR 803.084 IDR 906.495 IDR 979.458 IDR 1.064.406 IDR 1.074.257 IDR 1.134.887 IDR 1.142.583 IDR 1.146.348 IDR 1.144.807 IDR 1.162.836 IDR 1.187.990 Notes:

  • Nominal in billion rupiah (domestic bonds), million USD & million JPY (international bonds)
  • *) Tradable
  • **) Non-Tradable
  • +) Including ORI (IDR Billion))

IDR 18.885 IDR 34.699 IDR 40.149 IDR 40.672 IDR 40.672 IDR 40.672 IDR 40.672 IDR 40.672 IDR 40.672 IDR 51.672 IDR 51.672

  • ++) Including Sukuk Ritel/SR (IDR Billion)

IDR 5.556 IDR 13.590 IDR 13.590 IDR 20.931 IDR 20.931 IDR 20.931 IDR 20.931 IDR 20.931 IDR 20.931

  • +++) Including Non Tradable Sukuk/ SDHI (IDR Billion)

IDR 2.686 IDR 12.783 IDR 12.783 IDR 20.783 IDR 20.783 IDR 20.783 IDR 20.783 IDR 23.783 IDR 23.784

(e.o Dec 2007) (31 Des '08) (31 Des '09) (31 Des '10) (31 Jan '11) (30 Jun '11) (29 Jul '11) (31 Agust '11) (30 Sep '11) (31 Okt '11) (24 Nop '11)

  • Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/USD1)

IDR 9.419 IDR 10.950 IDR 9.400 IDR 8.991 IDR 9.057 IDR 8.597 IDR 8.508 IDR 8.539 IDR 8.823 IDR 8.835 IDR 9.035

  • Exchange Rate Assumption (IDR/JPY1)

IDR 101,70 IDR 110,29 IDR 110,36 IDR 106,72 IDR 109,55 IDR 111,22 IDR 115,24 IDR 111,86 IDR 117,11

slide-14
SLIDE 14

14

Maturity Profile of Tradable Government Securities, as of November 24, 2011 ,

ZC : Zero Coupon bond PN : T’bills IFR : Islamic Fixed Rate Bond SNI : International Sukuk IB : International Bond ORI : Retail Bond SR : Retail Sukuk SPN-S: Sharia T’bills VR : Variable Rate Bond FR : Fixed Rate Bond RIJPY : Samurai Bond

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 … 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 Total 0,15 91,10 56,14 73,63 51,34 52,16 45,01 56,32 55,78 68,76 59,12 32,54 21,03 18,01 28,02 19,61 22,62 20,84

  • 25,68

27,10

  • 14,56

3,71 20,05 33,88

  • 13,55

SPNS

  • 1,32
  • SNI
  • 5,91
  • 9,10
  • SR
  • 5,56

8,03 7,34

  • IFR
  • 0,55
  • 5,35
  • 1,17

1,99

  • 0,25
  • 1,55
  • 2,18
  • 3,71
  • RIJPY
  • 4,13

7,09

  • ZC
  • 1,25

1,26

  • FR
  • 27,68

35,71 15,79 19,55 26,06 17,92 10,03 10,74 17,90 36,38 32,54 21,03 18,01 26,47 19,61 22,62 20,84

  • 23,50

27,10

  • 6,40

15,69

  • 13,55

SPN 0,15 29,90

  • IB
  • 20,93

9,10 8,19 9,10 17,29 18,20 18,20 22,75

  • 14,56
  • 13,65

18,20

  • ORI
  • 21,03

10,59 11,00

  • VR
  • 4,37
  • 12,66

17,35 17,92 16,82 17,92 22,72 25,32

  • 10

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 trillion rupiah

slide-15
SLIDE 15

15

IDR Gov’t Bonds : Average Daily Trading in Secondary Market

522 1.395 2.122 2.549 3.307 5.899 4.235 3.420 4.963 5.901 4.842 6.230 7.909 6.272 8.162 8.210 11.283 11.097 7.347 6.940

  • 90

180 270 360 450

  • 2.000

4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan'11 Feb'11 Mar'11 Apr'11 May'11 June'11 July'11 Aug'11 Sep'11 Okt'11 24 Nov'11

Volume (billion rupiah) - LHS Frequency - RHS

slide-16
SLIDE 16

3.00 5.00 7.00 9.00 11.00 13.00 15.00 17.00 19.00 21.00 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 30Y 24 Nov '11 17 Nov '11 3 Jan '11 7 May '10 27 Oct '08 13 Sep '05 [in percentage]

Sources: IDMA, Bloomberg

Yield Curve of Government Securities (IDMA/Himdasun)

16

Tenor 24-Nov-11 17-Nov-11 3-Jan-11 7-May-10 27-Oct-08 13-Sep-05 1Y 4.76 4.43 4.98 6.64 19.37 2Y 5.27 5.11 5.80 7.10 17.35 14.59 3Y 5.43 5.22 6.23 7.45 19.93 4Y 5.63 5.46 6.55 8.03 17.17 14.14 5Y 5.69 5.56 6.59 8.77 17.46 14.96 6Y 5.94 5.67 6.96 8.93 17.05 15.24 7Y 6.26 5.98 7.10 9.03 17.06 16.17 10Y 6.65 6.25 7.58 9.29 20.91 15.75 15Y 6.99 6.82 8.44 9.89 16.65 14.12 20Y 7.61 7.22 8.99 10.46 20.27 30Y 7.49 7.45 9.35 10.55 20.37

slide-17
SLIDE 17
  • 200,00

400,00 600,00 800,00 1.000,00 1.200,00 1.400,00

Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11

Indonesia Phillipine Turkey

Indonesia CDS 5 Y and 10 Y

as of November 24, 2011

Sumber: Bloomberg

17

5Y CDS 10Y CDS

  • 200

400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11

Indonesia Phillipine Turkey

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Des-07 Des-08 Banks 268,65 56,2% 258,75 49,2% 254,36 43,72% 217,27 33,88% 224,00 34,46% 219,46 31,93% 226,54 32,78% 247,91 34,82% 268,27 37,07% State Banks - Recap 154,67 32,4% 144,72 27,5% 144,19 24,79% 131,72 20,54% 134,16 20,64% 127,79 18,59% 133,26 19,28% 132,08 18,55% Private Banks - Recap 72,63 15,2% 61,67 11,7% 59,98 10,31% 54,93 8,57% 55,00 8,46% 56,72 8,25% 59,77 8,65% 59,49 8,35% Non Recap Banks 35,37 7,4% 45,17 8,6% 42,40 7,29% 26,26 4,10% 30,06 4,62% 30,96 4,50% 29,99 4,34% 48,47 6,81% Regional Banks 5,97 1,3% 6,50 1,2% 6,02 1,03% 1,41 0,22% 1,71 0,26% 2,07 0,30% 1,63 0,24% 5,94 0,83% Shariah Banks

  • 0,0%

0,69 0,1% 1,77 0,30% 2,95 0,46% 3,07 0,47% 1,92 0,28% 1,89 0,27% 1,94 0,27% 1,98 0,27% Govt Institutions 14,86 3,1% 23,01 4,4% 22,50 3,87% 17,42 2,72% 15,53 2,39% 14,34 2,09% 3,12 0,45% 17,95 2,52% 8,23 1,14% Bank Indonesia 14,86 3,1% 23,01 4,4% 22,50 3,87% 17,42 2,72% 15,53 2,39% 14,34 2,09% 3,12 0,45% 17,95 2,52% 8,23 1,14% Non-Banks 194,24 40,7% 243,93 46,4% 304,89 52,41% 406,53 63,40% 410,43 63,15% 453,57 65,99% 461,38 66,77% 446,14 62,66% 447,25 61,80% Mutual Funds 26,33 5,5% 33,11 6,3% 45,22 7,77% 51,16 7,98% 51,09 7,86% 50,63 7,37% 48,76 7,06% 46,71 6,56% 46,98 6,49% Insurance Company 43,47 9,1% 55,83 10,6% 72,58 12,48% 79,30 12,37% 83,30 12,82% 93,68 13,63% 93,42 13,52% 92,54 13,00% 93,10 12,86% Foreign Holders 78,16 16,4% 87,61 16,7% 108,00 18,56% 195,76 30,53% 194,97 30,00% 225,32 32,78% 234,99 34,01% 219,78 30,87% 219,96 30,39% Pension Fund 25,50 5,3% 32,98 6,3% 37,50 6,45% 36,75 5,73% 37,34 5,74% 36,76 5,35% 36,69 5,31% 34,37 4,83% 34,59 4,78% Securities Company 0,28 0,1% 0,53 0,1% 0,46 0,08% 0,13 0,02% 0,25 0,04% 0,08 0,01% 0,07 0,01% 0,33 0,05% 0,19 0,03% Others 20,50 4,3% 33,87 6,4% 41,12 7,07% 43,43 6,77% 43,48 6,69% 47,09 6,85% 47,44 6,86% 52,42 7,36% 52,44 7,25% Total 477,75 100,0% 525,69 100,0% 581,75 100,00% 641,21 100% 649,95 100% 687,36 100% 691,03 100% 712,01 100% 723,76 100% Dec-09 Oct-11 Jun-11 May-11 24-Nov-11 Jan-11 Dec-10

18

Notes:

  • Foreign Holders (offshore) are non-resident Private Banking, Fund/Asset Mgmt, Securities Co, Insurance,

Pension Fund, etc

  • Others are Corporate, Individuals, Foundations, etc.
  • Private Banks – Recap and Non Recap Banks include foreign banks branches and subsidiaries

Source: Ministry of Finance

Ownership of IDR Tradable Government Securities

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 24-Nov-11 Total 195.755 211.574 234.992 248.869 247.381 218.091 219.781 219.957 >5 131.232 140.767 148.742 159.348 159.796 141.943 141.915 141.181 >2-5 35.511 33.823 40.422 42.309 38.387 38.278 38.505 37.776 >1-2 9.077 12.039 17.510 16.747 19.210 20.988 21.225 20.299 0-1 19.935 24.945 28.318 30.465 29.988 16.883 18.135 20.701 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000

19

Source: Ministry of Finance

Foreign Ownership of Govt Domestic Debt Securities

64,57% 17,52% 9,66% 8.25% 64,19% 17,17% 9,23% 9,41% IDR Billion

slide-20
SLIDE 20

Thank You

Directorate General of Debt Management Ministry of Finance of The Republic of Indonesia www.dmo.or.id