Global Poultry Sector Trends and External Drivers for Structural - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global Poultry Sector Trends and External Drivers for Structural Change

Presented by: Clare Narrod Co-authors: Marites Tiongco and Achilles Costales

What is the future of smallholders?

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5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 1990/92 2003/05 1990/92 2003/05 Poultry Meat Production Poultry Meat Consumption East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia Latin America WANA Sub-Saharan Africa Developing World Developed World

E.A. L.A. Developed world Developing world

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3.6 1.4 3.5 1.4 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Developing World Developed World Growth rate per year (%) Poultry Meat Production Poultry Meat Consumption

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2000 6.9 MMT United States of America 37% European Union 27 + 26% China 17%

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3% Thailand 4% Brazil 13%

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2005 8.1 MMT

Brazil 34% United States of America 31% European Union 27 + 26% Argentina 1% China 4%

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1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 1 9 8 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 US$ per ton (constant at 2000) Beef Pork Poultry

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0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Maize Beef Pork Poultry Growth rates per year (%) 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2005 2005-2015 2005-2030

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1,028 3,174 3,250 Total no. of farms ('000) 700 100 300 4 2 0.5 10,000 and over 56 8 44 14 13 9 1,000 - 9,999 152 3 144 68 66 27 100 - 999

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362 1,948 2,267 1-19 1988- 2003 1998- 2003 1988- 98 2003 1998 1988 (% change) Flock size (birds/farm)

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Farm Size Smallholder <10,000 birds Large/Commercial >=10,000 birds Country Independent Contract Independent Contract India rupees/bird 13.13 1.03 10.93 3.16 US$/kg* (0.11) (0.01) (0.09) (0.03) rupees/bird 11.36 9.98 Average profit without family labor cost US$/kg* (0.10) (0.09) rupees/bird 12.40 0.04 10.80 3.01 US$/kg (0.11) (0.003) (0.09) (0.03) rupees/bird 10.59 9.85 Average profit with family labor cost US$/kg (0.09) (0.08) Philippines pesos/kg 1.59 4.05 1.07 3.96 Average profit without family labor cost US$/kg (0.03) (0.08) (0.02) (0.08) pesos/kg 1.34 3.98 1.06 3.95 Average profit with family labor cost US$/kg (0.03) (0.08) (0.02) (0.08) Thailand Forward Contract & Independent Per–bird Wage Contract Forward Contract & Independent Per–bird Wage Contract baht/kg live– weight 0.71 1.35 2.48 1.51 Average profit US$/kg live– weight (0.02) (0.03) (0.06) (0.04) Brazil real/kg live– weight 0.05 0.06 Average profit US$/kg live– weight (0.02) (0.02)

Average profit per unit of output of liveweight broiler

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0.03 0.02 Contract fee US$/kg 0.08 0.07 Contract fee real/kg >60,000 birds <16,000 birds Brazil 0.09 0.08 Integrators US$/kg 4.38 3.80 From regular buyers Rupees/kg 1.23 1.26 Integrators US$/kg 59.77 61.18 From regular buyers Rupees/kg India 0.12 0.12 Integrators US$/kg 6.1 6.3 Integrators pesos/kg 0.9 0.9 From regular buyers US$/kg 44.7 47.6 From regular buyers pesos/kg Contract Independent Contract Independe nt Large (>10,000 birds) Small (<10,000 birds) Philippines 0.16 0.11 0.09 0.08 Per–bird Contract Fee US$/kg 7.0 4.7 3.7 3.3 Per–bird Contract Fee baht/kg 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Forward Contract Price US$/kg 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.3 Forward Contract Price baht/kg Commercial (>20,000 birds) Large (10,000–20,000 birds) Medium (5,000–10,000 birds) Small (1–5,000 birds) Thailand

Output price of live broiler across farm sizes by country, 2002

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Asia poultry productions tends to be around urban areas with smallholders and larger operations intermixed Poultry population Human population HPAI Began in areas with dense chicken populations..

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