Global Megatrends Forces reshaping our world over the coming 20 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Global Megatrends Forces reshaping our world over the coming 20 years Stefan Hajkowicz, PhD www.csiro.au Global Megatrends More From Less Great Planetary Expectations Pushback Porous The Silk Highway Boundaries + The Innovation
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Forces reshaping our world over the coming 20 years
Stefan Hajkowicz, PhD
More From Less Planetary Pushback The Silk Highway Forever Young Digital Immersion Porous Boundaries Great Expectations
+ The Innovation Imperative
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
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Ice Cream Car Trip Children Use activity books and games Take normal care
Effective strategy not yet identified by humankind
Use serviettes Does the strategy perform in most/all areas of overlap?
Each area of overlap tells a unique story about the future
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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
FAO Food Price Index (Real)
IMAGE AND DATA SOURCE: Marco Lagi, Karla Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam (2011) The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East. Physics and Society.
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
New Ways of Making Food
6 | First taste test in London 2013 – The Burger Cost AUD$450,000. The same research team led by Professor Post estimate $80/kg today using economies of scale and cutting edge technology.
Source: Reuters: David Parry/Pool, file photo, ABC News Online
74 11 1 13
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Energy Water Land GHG Emmisions Percent
Conventional Meat Cultured Meat
Becoda’s new food 3D printer – the Qiao
Source: http://3dprintingindustry.com/
Source: Journal of Environmental Science and Technology
More Energy, Less Resources & Less Emissions
Source: Valentin Muenzel et al (2014) The Conversation. Drawing upon data by the University of Melbourne and IBM.
“Unsubsidized rooftop solar electricity costs between $0.08-$0.13/kWh, 30-40% below retail price of electricity in many markets
for electricity generation, the ratio of coal based wholesale electricity to solar electricity cost was 7:1 four years ago. This ratio is now less than 2:1 and could likely approach 1:1 over the next 12-18 months”.
Source: David van der Mark, Flickr
The Tesla Model S P90D accelerates 0 to 100km/hr in 2.9 seconds; faster than the Ferrari 458 Italia at 3.0 seconds. It retails for ~US$120,000 (25% of that is the battery) [source: Wikipedia, www.automoblog.net).
Source: Pixabay
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Via Better Batteries
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
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One tonne of ore body yields 1-5 grams of gold One tonne of old computer circuits yields 250 grams of gold
Data Source: CSIRO News, Anna Littleboy - March 28 2014 How to create wealth from waste Images CSIRO
Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 10 |
The Global Climate is Following the Long Range Forecasts The year 2015 was hottest year
And 2016 is off to a hot start with February being hottest February on record (1.35C hotter than long term average).
Data and image source: NASA
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Source: Quah, 2011; Global Policy
Global Megatrends | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
14 | Image source: (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning network, http://www.upla.cn Statistic derived from analysis of the United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007 Revision Population Database
Transition in the Chinese Economy
10 20 30 40 50 60 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Percent of Value Add to the Economy
Industry Services Agriculture
Source: World Bank Indicators
Data Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Today we’re some 14% over 65 yrs old It will be 25% by 2050
Is on the Rise
54 56 58 60 62 64 66
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Australia - Males Australia - Females
As of June 2013 Australia’s entire workforce had a $727 billion shortfall for a comfortable retirement.
Warner Actuaries
Data source: OECD, Ageing and Employment Policies - Statistics on average effective age of retirement
Average Retirement Age Australia, Years
Years at Birth, Australia
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65 70 75 80 85
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Males Females
Data source: OECD Health Status, Life Expectancy at Birth
Jeanne Calment, who died at 122
The first person in the world to live to 150 years has already be born – according to Dr Aubrey de Grey
Life Expectancy at Birth in Australia, Years
Source: Eric Le Bourg, Ageing Research Reviews, Image: Wikipedia
Today’s youngest could have life expectancy of 105 years
At age 20 in 1885
Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 20 |
Obesity Rates (most recent OECD data, defined by BMI)
Whilst the rate
forecast to slow, the percentage increases. Australia is forecast to be 70% overweight and over one- third obese by
and physical inactivity are drivers of this trend.
Source: CSIRO DPAS Flagship
Today we spend 25 percent of all government taxes in Australia on healthcare. By the year 2043 it will be 40 percent.
Percent of GDP, Australia
Source: AIHW health expenditure database
2006 2 Billion Devices 2015 15 Billion Devices 2020 200 Billion Devices Data source: Intel Corporation. A Guide to the Internet of Things. Image Wikipedia
225 times more functionality 40,000 times more functionality
Metcalfe's Law Value of a network = n2
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Jun 2010 Dec 2010 Jun 2011 Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Jun 2013 Dec 2013 Jun 2014 Dec 2014 Jun 2015
Thousand Terabytes
Terabytes of data downloaded using fixed line broadband
And we’d need another 75m to show you the 2025 forecast.
According to IBM The world creates 2.5 quintillion bytes of data daily; 90% of the data was made in the last 2 years.
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
1971 1974 1982 1989 1995 1999 2003 2008 2012
Transistors (millions) Moore’s Law – Number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles at same cost every 1.5 years And then there’s quantum computing which could be 10,000 times faster … Jury’s still out on whether D Wave 2 (second commercially available quantum computer by Google, NASA and D Wave Systems) actually
Future of Work | Dr Stefan Hajkowicz & Dr Andrew Reeson 26 |
Question: The area of lilly pad doubles every day. It takes 19 days for the pond to be half-covered. On what day is the pond completely covered?
Image: Pixabay
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100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Pond Coverage (Square Metres)
Answer: On day 20 (one day later) the pond is covered.
Frog Doesn’t Know Anything is Happening Yet
Frog Suspects Something Happening Frog realises what’s happening & tries to respond
50% Coverage
Image: Pixabay
100% Coverage
After seven years of effort by scientists from UC Berkeley a robot can fold a towel in … 20 mins.
The Berkeley Robot for the Elimination of Tedious Task (Brett) by Prof Abbeel at UC Berkley. Image source: Youtube
ABS (2015). 6291.0.55.001 - Labour Force, Australia, Detailed. Canberra, Australian Bureau of Statistics.
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Employment ('000s) Australian Photographic Industry
Photographers Developers/printers
Ronald Coase working in 2003. Photo taken at and by University of Chicago Law School. Wikipedia.
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New Uber Drivers in the United States
A study by Uber Technologies and Princeton University, published 2016
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.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Sk7cOqB9Dk
Google Analytics – In Real Life Online Checkout
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Now is the time to rattle the cage, experiment with new business models, invest in ideas & rethink organisational structure because… … Elephants must learn to dance.
92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Productivity Index Twenty Years of Productivity in Australia
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
“…In the long term it’s everything”
Prize Laureate, Economics
Image: Paul Krugman Speaks to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco, May 2012. Photo on Flickr and taken by Ed Ritger.
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World Economic Forum via Flickr. Zanny Minton Beddoes interviews Clayton Christensen
In a high tech digitally enabled economy its about working smarter not harder
20 40 60 80 100
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 Labour Productivity (USD of GDP Per Hour Worked, Current Prices) Average Hours Worked Per Person Per Week
R2 = 0.65
Data Source: OECD Statistics, Labour productivity levels in the total economy, Data for 34 OECD Countries
Experiments in Sweden, reducing the work week from 6 to 8 hours tested by:
Sweden Norway Australia
Stockholm, Pixabay
We combine research excellence with business relevance. We analyse trends, risks and scenarios with a focus on the digital economy. We do decision analysis. We help organisations make wise strategic choices and achieve their objectives. We live in Brisbane but we travel the world …
… (and we try to get home in time for dinner).
www.csiro.au
Data61 Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Senior Principal Research Scientist t +61 7 3833 5540 e Stefan.Hajkowicz@csiro.au