Megatrends towards 2030 DTU Wind Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d. Futurist - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Megatrends towards 2030

DTU Wind

Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d. Futurist Centre for Future Studies

http://uk.fremforsk.dk/

Moore than 7 billion people

European Population Growth The Silver Tsunami

Population Growth

The coming workforce of Europe? – 190 million under 25 years in the Arab world

India’s high-tech centre

Globalization 2.0

• Outsourcing knowledge work and workers
• Specialized engineers, researchers, scientists,

mathematicians and financial wiz kids

• Creativity
• White collar sweat shops:
• Digital retouch in Dacca
• Why? – cheaper and closer to the markets
• We have to survive and thrive at the skills and

technologies, where we are better that the rest of the world and possesses better market knowledge

Kilde:The Economist, sept. 2th, 2014

The world economy will continue to grow

Disruptive technology

Globalization 3.0 Industri 4.0 (Davos)

• Automation, robots and higher efficiency in

production lines in

• We will still manufacture goods in the US and in EU
• Less and less work costs in the final cost of the

goods

• New technology replacing man power – but also

assuring industrial jobs and the manufacturing industry in the future

• Globalized lines of production with critical parts being

made in Europa and the US

The digital revolution version 3.0

• We are in the middle of a real digital revolution

that changes the way we work, produce and communicate in a new digital society

• Digital structure and software has become a

basic part of peoples lives and public and privates companies

• A essential infrastructure in daily life like water

and electricity

• Your chances of succeeding depends very

much on your digital capacity

The sun as a source of energy

• The sun every day distributes the same amount of

energy on Earth, that all humanity uses during 27 years at the present level of energy consumption

• One hours of sun radiation = covers energy

consumption a hole year

• We only use 0,1 % of the suns radiation of energy

to Earth

• We have all the energy we need
• We just have to pick it up

THE PRICE OF OIL

IEA: World Energy Outlook Special Report, 2015

But we can meet the challenge just by being more efficient

Wind is still a rather tiny fraction

IEA: World Energy Outlook Special Report, 2015

A renewable future

Source: IEA Renewables 2012

European questions

• Supply side – were to get the energy we need
• Cleaning up the former mess – better power

stations, cleaning emission, better grids etc.

• CO2 quotas – the end of the qouta road?
• The Americans are better at reducing CO2 emission

than the EU

• The grid and Europe – a major improvement needed
• We have to build the power system of the future

and do it well

• National plans should be aggregated to EU level

Modern Danish worklife after the crisis

• We live in a wealthy part of the world
• Work is no longer just a question of paying next

months rent

• The crises created a temporary reluctance to

ask for great salary increases and benefits

• But it’s over now and demands are growing
• Modern work life is about personal identity and

a meaningful way of living

• Competing with family, shopping and holidays

The flexible labour market

• Half of all jobs that existed 10 years ago do not exist

anymore

• New jobs have been created replacing that half – slower

during economic downturns – faster growth in boom times

• Approx. 30% of the workforce changes jobs during a

year

• The labour market is a very flexible market
• Our children will change jobs more often than us and

change directions and industry more than once during their worklive

Six Generations

Baby Boomers

Born 1940-54 Post war generation – educational boom Reinventing every phase of life Rock, beat, soul Tech: The pill

Generation Jones

Recently discovered Large generation Design, ethics, idea Against divorce, pro family – tech: Stereo set Born 1955-67

Generation X

The so-what generation Small after the pill Selfcenteret, extrovert Personal succes, Video, workaholics, love brands Born 1968-79

Generation Y

The smallest gen. Fun shoppers, great social skills, Myself inc., situational consumption managing many choices 1980-89, PC, cell-phone

Generation Z

Between war gen., Project & trophy kids Be famous, groups based Digital natives Born 1990-2001 New Millenium After 9-11 generation Cultural homogenization EU as native soil Wi–Fi (Wireless internet) Født 2001 - 2013

B, X og Y på arbejdspladsen

The Young families (Generation Y )

• Dad is a caring and loving person and he plays with

the kids on the kitchen floor

• A new kind of family – not only mom as the centre
• Want to do everything on the internet
• Among Peers – love peers and peer review
• Do not understand texts written by a person over 50
• Lounge and chill
• First video producing generation – love selfies
• Facebook is a place to post your profile – not your

life

Generation Z

• Socialization: Kindergartens
• Inhabitant of the internet and internet shopping

malls: The digital natives

• Can´t remember a life without a PC and a cell-phone
• Let´s find the best price of a product world wide
• Without the cell-phone ”I feel Naked”
• Social networking is a must in life
• Personal recognition for what I say or do
• What´s in it for me !
• Personal style over Brands
• Loves to create their own products, music, way of doing things

Future job and future employers!

• A job that is meaningful to me and my family and

friends

• A fair and just salary – still young
• A flexible workplace
• A good title – English please (Cheese Manager)
• My work will shape my personality and identity
• Recognize me, see me and praise me all day long
• NOT too much work, please! - I also need time for

friends, free me time and others interests (sports, shopping, parties and pets.)

”Born digital”

The future role of DTU Wind

• Research will have to show its value to society in the

future – Denmark, EU, The World?

• Not enough to be of value to the wind turbine industry -

but that is also necessary (who pays your research?)

• You gotta serve somebody! (Bob Dylan) – but who?
• So somehow you are expected to not only serve the

industry and sectoral interest but also to tell the truth

• What is the cheapest and most reliable source of

renewable energy in the future?

• Do du know for sure?
• How can you present you doubts?

The stone age did not end due to lack of stones The oil age will not end due to lack of oil, but because of superior technologies

Jesper Bo Jensen Fremforsk

• Centre for Future Studies

Balticagade 15, st. th. 8000 Aarhus C E jbj@fremforsk.dk T +45 86 11 47 44 M +45 20 67 45 00

www.fremforsk.dk/en