Global Agricultural Weather Outlook Black Sea Grain Conference Kyle - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global Agricultural Weather Outlook Black Sea Grain Conference Kyle - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Global Agricultural Weather Outlook Black Sea Grain Conference Kyle Tapley, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist April 11, 2019 Kyiv, Ukraine Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential Radiant Solutions: Who we are Radiant

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Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential

Global Agricultural Weather Outlook

Black Sea Grain Conference

Kyle Tapley, Senior Agricultural Meteorologist April 11, 2019 – Kyiv, Ukraine

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Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential

Radiant Solutions: Who we are

  • Radiant Solutions is the global leader for

weather and remote sensing technology

  • Trusted by the agricultural commodities

industry for more than 40 years

  • Global coverage
  • Provider of historical and forecast weather data
  • Proprietary crop yield and production estimates
  • Crop identification using satellite imagery
  • Unique analytical tools
  • 24/7/365 support from our Weather Desk team
  • f meteorologists
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Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential

COMING SOON: 3000+ New Weather Stations in GWI!

  • 3,017 new stations to be added to GWI in

the coming weeks, increasing total number of stations to nearly 10,000

  • New and improved regions
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Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential

Featured Product: Crop Analysis Services

  • Radiant Solutions has performed

cultivated area estimates and field- level crop identification using satellite imagery for government customers for decades to aid in monitoring illicit crops

  • Radiant Solutions has provided crop

forecasts using weather data and other sources to the agricultural commodities industries for decades to aid in forecasting crop supply

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Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential

Agenda

  • Expectations for El Niño/La Niña
  • Black Sea Growing Season Outlook
  • EU Growing Season Outlook
  • U.S. Growing Season Outlook
  • South America Recap
  • Tour of Other Global Weather Hotspots
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Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential

El Niño and La Niña

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El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

  • Cycle involving changes

in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric pressures across the tropical Pacific

  • Impacts weather

patterns by altering the global atmospheric circulation

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Monitoring and Classifying El Niño

  • Boxed area is called Niño 3.4 region,

which is used to classify ENSO events by NOAA

  • In El Niño, sea surface temperatures

are more than 0.5°C warmer than normal in the Niño 3.4 region

  • In La Niña, sea surface temperatures

are more than 0.5°C cooler than normal in the Niño 3.4 region

Neut utral ral El Niño ño La Niña ña

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Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential

ENSO Through the Years

  • 3
  • 2,5
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  • 1,5
  • 1
  • 0,5

0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 Monthly Niño 3.4 Region SST Anomaly (°C)

Niño 3.4 Region Temperature Anomalies Weak El Niño Moderate El Niño Strong El Niño Strong La Niña Moderate La Niña Weak La Niña

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Current ENSO Situation

  • Water temperatures decreased some earlier this year, but have since

warmed again to 1.1°C warmer than normal, reaching weak to moderate El Niño levels

  • Large area of warmer than normal water remains below the surface
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  • 2
  • 1,5
  • 1
  • 0,5

0,5 1 1,5 2 DEC JAN FEB MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ

Mid-March 2019 ENSO Model Plume (IRI/CPC)

NASA GMAO NCEP CFSv2 JMA BCC_CSM11m SAUDI-KAU LDEO AUS/POAMA ECMWF UKMO KMA SNU IOCAS ICM COLA CCSM4 MetFRANCE SINTEX-F CS-IRI-MM GFDL CM2.1 CMC CANSIP GFDL FLOR PSD-CU LIM NTU CODA BCC_RZDM CPC MRKOV CPC CA CSU CLIPR UBC NNET FSU REGR UCLA-TCD AVERAGE

IRI/CPC ENSO Model Forecasts

  • Currently in weak El Niño
  • Models in good

agreement that weak El Niño will persist for at least the next few months

  • Average of models shows

weak El Niño persisting through the end of the year

  • No models show La Niña
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ENSO Conclusions

  • El Niño conditions to persist for at least a few more months
  • Weak El Niño conditions most likely for summer
  • La Niña very unlikely for Northern Hemisphere growing season
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Why it matters-El Niño precip correlation

  • Map shows typical

rainfall deviations during El Niño events

  • Nearly the opposite of

La Niña

  • Regional effects can

still overwhelm the El Niño signal, however

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Black Sea Weather Outlook

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Black Sea Winter Recap (December through February)

  • Warmer than normal winter across southern Russia and Ukraine, with no

significant winterkill threats

  • Wetter than normal in Ukraine and southern Central Region

Winter Temperature Departure Winter Precipitation % of Normal

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Black Sea Spring to Date (March 1-April 10)

  • Warmer than normal in most areas, especially Kazakhstan and western Siberia
  • Below normal precipitation across Ukraine, especially southern areas
  • Above normal precipitation across southern Russia, Volga Valley, Urals

Mar 1-Apr 10 Temperature Departure Mar 1-Apr 10 Precipitation % of Normal

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Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential

Black Sea Soil Moisture

  • Dryness across south central and

western Ukraine and Belarus

  • Still some minor lingering dryness

in southern Russia

  • Above normal soil moisture in

Central Region and Volga Valley

Subsoil Moisture Departure

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Black Sea 15 Day Forecast

  • Cooler than normal temperatures expected in eastern Ukraine and western Russia
  • Below normal precipitation for Ukraine and northwestern Russia
  • Above normal precipitation for Kazakhstan

15 Day Temperature Departure 15 Day Precipitation % of Normal

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Black Sea 3 Month Outlook

Radiant Temperature Forecast Radiant Precipitation Forecast

May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019

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Europe Weather Outlook

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Europe Winter Recap (December through February)

  • Warm winter across most of Europe
  • Dry winter in the UK, Spain, southern France, Italy, and Hungary

Winter Temperature Departure Winter Precipitation % of Normal

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Europe Spring to Date (March 1-April 10)

  • Central and eastern Europe remained warm
  • Dryness continued across southern Euope

Mar 1-Apr 10 Temperature Departure Mar 1-Apr 10 Precipitation % of Normal

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Europe Soil Moisture

  • Extensive dryness across southern

Europe, especially in Spain and Hungary

  • Favorable soil moisture in the UK,

northern France, Germany, and western Poland

Subsoil Moisture Departure

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Europe 15 Day Forecast

  • Cooler across southern and western Europe
  • Some improvement possible in Spain and Italy, but dry elsewhere

15 Day Temperature Departure 15 Day Precipitation % of Normal

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Europe 3 Month Outlook

Radiant Temperature Forecast Radiant Precipitation Forecast

May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019

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U.S. Weather Outlook

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U.S Winter Recap (December-February)

  • Wetter than normal winter across most of the U.S., with record February

snowfall in the north central U.S.

  • Some dryness across western Texas, however
  • Warm winter in the Southeast, but cold across the northern Plains

Winter Temperature Departure Winter Precipitation % of Normal

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U.S. Spring to Date (March 1-April 10)

  • Cold month nationally, especially early in the month
  • Wet weather and rapid snowmelt led to historic flooding in eastern

Nebraska, western Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota

  • Wetter weather eased dryness in western Texas

Mar 1-Apr 10 Temperature Departure Mar 1-Apr 10 Precipitation % of Normal

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Midwest Flooding

  • Rapid snowmelt and heavy rainfall in mid-March

led to historic flooding in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa

  • Platte and Missouri Rivers saw the most extreme

flooding

  • More than 500,000 acres flooded, including more

than 438,000 acres where either corn or soybeans were cultivated last year

  • Flooding also occurring in the northern Plains,

but not as severe due to slower snowmelt

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Current Soil Moisture Situation

  • Soils much wetter than normal across the northern and central Plains and

the western Midwest

  • Drying out in the Delta, but no significant areas of drought in the major

crop areas

Subsoil Moisture Departure from Normal

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North America-15 Day Forecast

  • Near normal temperatures should allow soil temperatures to increase, favoring

planting

  • Wet weather in the central Plains and southern Midwest will slow corn planting
  • Fairly dry weather in the Delta favoring corn and soybean planting
  • Favorable soil moisture for hard red winter wheat in the Plains

15 Day Temperature Departure Forecast 15 Day Precipitation % of Normal Forecast

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North America 2019 Summer Weather Outlook

Radiant Summer (June-August) Temperature Forecast Radiant Summer (June-August) Precipitation Forecast

  • Above normal temperatures expected across the central and eastern Midwest
  • Seasonal rainfall for most of the corn belt, with some dryness in the western Plains
  • Above normal rainfall expected in the Delta and the Southeast
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North America 2019 Summer Weather Outlook

Radiant Temperature Forecast Radiant Precipitation Forecast

Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019

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South America Weather Recap and Outlook

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South America Summer Recap

Dec 2018 018-Feb eb 2019 019 Pre recipitati tation

  • n

Perc rcent ent of Norm rmal Dec 2018 018-Feb eb 2019 019 Ave verage e Temp Departur ture e (°F) F)

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South America-15 Day Forecast

  • Dry weather in central and southern

portions of the safrinha corn belt may lead to some stress

  • Near normal rainfall will favor safrinha

corn in Mato Grosso

  • Wet weather in northern Argentina will

slow corn and soybean harvesting

15 Day Pre recipitati tation

  • n

Perc rcent ent of Normal mal Forec ecast st

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South America Outlook

Radiant Temperature Forecast

  • Normal precipitation during May

should generally favor late growth of safrinha corn

  • Wet weather may slow harvesting in

northern Argentina during May

  • Wet weather in June in Argentina

would favor wheat and planting increases

Radiant Precipitation Forecast

May 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jun 2019

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Tour of Other Major Growing Areas

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China Forecast

  • Some dryness across North China Plain and Northeast China currently
  • Generally favorable conditions expected for crops this summer

Current Subsoil Moisture Departure May through July Precipitation Forecast

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Australia Forecast

  • Recent rains have eased some of the dryness in Queensland and New

South Wales, but dryness has expanded elsewhere

  • Below normal rainfall expected across most of the major wheat areas

Current Subsoil Moisture Departure from Normal May through July Precipitation Forecast

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Indian Monsoon Forecast

  • Indian monsoon expected to be

near normal in most areas

  • Generally favorable conditions

expected for crops, but some dryness possible in northeastern areas

  • Drier risks if El Niño strengthens

June through September Precipitation Forecast

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Global Summary

Weak El Niño ño

No major r issues for r safrinh rinha a cor

  • rn

n in Brazi zil Favo vorab able le summer weath ather r for r U.S. S. corn rn belt lt Favo vorab able le conditio itions for r crops ps in India dia Dryness in SE Asia a pa palm lm areas reas Drough ght t to to contin inue in eastern tern Austr tralia alia Dryness possib ible le in Russia ia this summer Dry summer r possib ible le in south thern Eur urop

  • pe

Floodin ding to to hind inder U.S. . sprin ring g plan antin ting Favo vorab able le har arves vest t weath ather r for r Arg rgentin ina Favo vorab able le conditio itions for r crops ps in China ina

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Radiant Solutions Proprietary and Business Confidential

Thank You

Please feel free to contact me with any questions

Kyle.Tapley@radiantsolutions.com or +1-240-833-8300

4/12/2019