GDP Projections 5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3 3 2.5 2.3 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

3.3 4.5 4.4 3.4 3 2.3 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2011 for 2016 2012 for 2016 2013 for 2016 2014 for 2016 2015 for 2016 2016 for 2016

GDP Projections

• 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 CBO 10-Year Projected Social Security Trust Fund Balances

$Billions

• 500

1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2016 CBO 10-Year Projected Social Security Trust Fund Balances

$Billions

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

CBO Social Security Trust Fund Balance – Regression Projection

$Billions

$Billions

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

CBO Disability Insurance Trust Fund Balance With Reforms

OASI DI Year of Peak Trust Fund Ratio 2011 2003 First Year Outgo Exceeds Income EXCLUDING Interest 2010 2005 First Year Outgo Exceeds Income INCLUDING Interest 2022 2009 Key Dates For Social Security (2015 Trustees Report)

CBO NOW SAYS 2018!

50 100 150 200 250 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 FY2026

Medicare Part A Trust Fund Balance

$Billions

Mandatory Spending:

$2.721 Trillion

70% Discretionary Spending:

$1.165 Trillion

30%

CBO FY2016 Projected Spending

Mandatory Spending:

$4.972 Trillion

78% Discretionary Spending:

$1.429 Trillion

22%

CBO FY2026 Projected Spending

22% 22% 83%

Mandatory Spending:

$40.232 Trillion

76% Discretionary Spending:

$12.975 Trillion

24%

CBO FY2016 - FY2026 Combined Projected Spending

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Mandatory Spending Discretionary Spending Discretionary Spending Ending Sequestration

($Billions)

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Public Debt Total US Debt 2015 Total Debt: $18.1 Trillion Public Debt: $12.8 Trillion 2026 Total Debt: $29.3 Trillion Public Debt: $22.4 Trillion

($Billions)

Social Security $910 Billion 22% Medicare $692 Billion 17% Medicaid $381 Billion 9% Other Spending $721 Billion 17% Net Interest, $255 Billion 6% Defense $589 Billion 14% Non-Defense $609 Billion 15%

CBO Projected FY2016 Spending

Social Security $1.62 Trillion 24% Medicare $1.3 Trillion 19% Medicaid, $642 Billion 9% Other Mandatory Spending $943 Billion 14% Net Interest, $830 Billion 12% Defense $719 Billion 11% Non- Defense $710 Billion 11%

CBO Projected FY2026 Spending

OMB Actual 2015 Spending

Social Security Medicare Medicaid Welfare and Affordable Care Act Veterans Benefits and Services Net Interest Department of Defense--Military Programs Legislative Branch Judicial Branch Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Education Department of Energy Department of Health and Human Services Department of Homeland Security Department of Housing and Urban Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of the Treasury Department of Veterans Affairs Corps of Engineers--Civil Works Other Defense Civil Programs Environmental Protection Agency Executive Office of the President International Assistance Programs National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Science Foundation Office of Personnel Management Small Business Administration Social Security Administration (On-Budget) Social Security Administration (Off-Budget) Other Independent Agencies (On-Budget) Other Independent Agencies (Off-Budget)

Social Security $882 Billion Medicare $539 Billion Medicaid $350 Billion Welfare and Obamacare $350 Billion Veterans’ Benefits $92 Billion Net Interest $223 Billion Defense $560 Billion