G20 Seminar on Employment Policies, Phili Philippe Egger, Paris, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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G20 Seminar on Employment Policies, Phili Philippe Egger, Paris, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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G20 Seminar on Employment Policies, Phili Philippe Egger, Paris, April 2011 E P i A il 2011 Employment to Employment to Population Ratio pulation Ratio Second Semester 2010 Second Semester 2010 and and 2009 2009 (Base 2nd (Base 2nd

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G20 Seminar on Employment Policies, Phili E P i A il 2011 Philippe Egger, Paris, April 2011

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SLIDE 2

Employment to Employment to Population Ratio pulation Ratio

Second Semester 2010 Second Semester 2010 and and 2009 2009 (Base 2nd (Base 2nd Semester 2007=100) Semester 2007=100)

TUR 106 108

Better than 2007 and 2009

ARG* BRA* DEU IDN RUS 100 102 104 45º Line AUS CAN FRA GBR JPN KOR MEX 96 98 100

me mester 201 2010

Worse than 2007 but better than 2009

ITA USA 92 94 96

2nd 2nd Se Se

ESP ZAF 88 90 92

Worse than 2007 and 2009

86 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108

2nd 2nd Seme emester 200 2009 2nd 2nd Seme Semester 200 2009

Note: Size of the bubbles represents the number of total employment. Data for Argentina and Brazil are urban.

2 International Labour Office (ILO)

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SLIDE 3

2 5

Growt Growth and Variati and Variation in n in Unem Unempl ploym

  • yment Rates -

nt Rates - 2010 2010

ESP 2 2.5 Economic Contraction and Increase in ZAF 1 1.5

n pp) n pp)

and Increase in Unemployment Linear Trend CAN FRA GBR ITA JPN KOR MEX USA 0.5

riat iation

  • n 2

2010 (i 10 (in

Economic growth and increase in unemployment ARG* AUS CAN DEU IDN RUS

  • 0.5
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

mployment V ployment Var

BRA*

  • 1.5
  • 1

Une Unem

Economic growth and decrease in unemployment TUR

  • 2 5
  • 2

g p y 2.5

Gro Growth Rat Rate 201 2010 (in (in %) %)

Note: Size of the bubbles represents the number of unemployed persons. Labour data for Argentina and Brazil are urban. Data for Unemployment in 2010 correspond to the average of data available. Data for Growth is the annual forecast of the WEO

3 International Labour Office (ILO)

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SLIDE 4

Growth cluster: expanding domestic and external Growth cluster: expanding domestic and external

demand; growth in labour-intensive sectors; rising real wages, including minimum wage; g g , g g ; expanding social protection; structural challenges remain.

Lacklustre growth cluster: low investment and

business confidence; subdued domestic demand; low labour intensity of growth; shifts in sectoral ti it i ti ( t ti ) i i l activity require time (construction); rising long term unemployment; many structural challenges.

4 International Labour Office (ILO)

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140 60

World World GDP GDP (1999 (1999 =100), =100), working working poor poor (US$ 2 (US$ 2 a a day) day) and and wage wage employm employment as nt as % % of

  • f total

total employme employment nt

120 130 55

World GDP working poor

100 110 45 50 90 100 40

wage employment

80 35 1999 2003 2009 5 International Labour Office (ILO)

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SLIDE 6

International Labour Office (ILO) 6

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0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0 1 0.2 0.3 0.1

S OECD STAT D t b 2010 W ld B k d l t I di t 2010 Sources: OECD STAT Database, 2010; World Bank development Indicators, 2010

7 International Labour Office (ILO)

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Leaders agreed: “To launch a framework that lays out the

li i d th t t th t policies and the way we act together to generate strong, sustainable and balanced global growth We need a durable recovery global growth. We need a durable recovery that creates the good jobs our people need.”

8 International Labour Office (ILO)

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SLIDE 9

Accelerate job creation to ensure a sustained recovery and Accelerate job creation to ensure a sustained recovery and

future growth; h l d l

Strengthen social protection systems and promote inclusive

active labour market policies;

Place employment and poverty alleviation at the centre of

national and global economic strategies;

Improve the quality of jobs for our people; Prepare our workforces for future challenges and

  • pportunities.

9 International Labour Office (ILO)

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SLIDE 10

Broad-based growth: strong, sustainable, balanced, strong middle of income distribution, very low to no poverty, Investment, enterprise development, l t i i d ti it i ht t Social protection, education and training, l b f ti i ti l employment, rising productivity, rights at work, collective bargaining, wage/productivity linkages labour force participation, equal

  • pportunities

10 International Labour Office (ILO)

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Employment/GDP Employment/GDP < 0.30 0.30 ‐ 0.66 > 0.66 0.6 Japan, Germany, India, Italy low wage tivity < 0 Turkey Indonesia, US Italy low wage .5 Australia Brazil Wage /product 0.55 ‐1. China Australia, Brazil, France, Korea, Rep., South Africa, UK Canada > 1.5 Russia Argentina Mexico, Saudi Arabia high wage low employment high employment

11 International Labour Office (ILO)

Sources: OECD STAT Database, 2010; World Bank development Indicators, 2010

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  • Active fiscal and monetary policies
  • Real economy investments
  • Unemployment benefits
  • Employment services
  • Real economy investments,

including infrastructure and “green” economy

  • Support to SMEs (credit, R&D,
  • Employment services
  • Active inclusive labour market

policies and programmes

  • Skills development and training

( G20 T i i S ) pp ( , , institutional) and sustainable enterprises

  • Sectoral and regional investment

(see G20 Training Strategy)

  • School-to-employment transitions,

including apprenticeships

  • Extension of basic social

and development policies

  • Collective bargaining broadly

aligning productivity and wages Mi i li i

  • Extension of basic social

protection

  • Targeted employment

programmes F d t l i i l d i ht

  • Minimum wage policies
  • Hiring subsidies (targeted,

temporary) T li i f bl t

  • Fundamental principles and rights

at work and other relevant labour standards

  • Tax policies favourable to

employment

12 International Labour Office (ILO)

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“Countries should give consideration as

  • Countries should give consideration, as

appropriate, to the following:

  • Building adequate social protection for all,

g q p , drawing on a basic social protection floor including: access to health care, income security f h ld l d h d b l h ld for the elderly and persons with disabilities, child benefits and income security combined with public employment guarantee schemes for the public employment guarantee schemes for the unemployed and working poor”

  • A Global Jobs Pact, adopted by the International

A Global Jobs Pact, adopted by the International Labour Conference on 19 June 2009

13 International Labour Office (ILO)

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Lower Higher Morbidity Poverty Consumption

Employment of ki d lt y

Child labour Income Volatility

working age adults

Productivity Gender equality

y

Precautionary savings Gender equality School enrolment

14 International Labour Office (ILO)

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SLIDE 15

35 25 30 2000 latest year 10 15 20 5

Source: ILO, 2010, World Social Security report

15 International Labour Office (ILO)

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“

in seeking to maintain the link between

…in seeking to maintain the link between

social progress and economic growth, the guarantee of fundamental principles and guarantee of fundamental principles and rights at work is of particular significance in that it enables the persons concerned, to that it enables the persons concerned, to claim freely and on the basis of equality of

  • pportunity, their fair share of the wealth
  • pportunity, their fair share of the wealth

which they have helped to generate, and to achieve fully their human potential; …” y p ;

16 International Labour Office (ILO)

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Country Freedom of Association Elimination of forced labour Elimination of discrimination Abolition of child labour Country Freedom of Association and collective bargaining Elimination of forced labour and compulsory labour Elimination of discrimination (employment and

  • ccupation)

Abolition of child labour Convention 87 98 29 105 100 111 138 182 Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany India Indonesia Italy Japan Korea, Rep. of Mexico Russian Fed. Saudi Arabia South Africa Spain Turkey United Kingdom United States Ratifications = 14 13 16 17 19 18 14 19 17 Ratifications 14 13 16 17 19 18 14 19 International Labour Office (ILO)

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SLIDE 18

Policies to combat child labour; forced labour; Policies to combat child labour; forced labour;

discrimination in employment and occupation;

Policies to promote full, freely chosen and

productive employment;

Policies and institutions to facilitate social

dialogue and collective bargaining on wages dialogue and collective bargaining on wages, working time, occupational safety and health, social protection. p

ILO assistance to countries that seek to

gradually, step by step, bring their legislation d i i f i i h h i i l f and practice in conformity with the principles of fundamental conventions.

18 International Labour Office (ILO)

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80 60 70 40 50 20 30 10

Source: ILO and United Nations

19 International Labour Office (ILO)

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Employment and social protection policies are Employment and social protection policies are

essentially a national responsibility Y t i l b li d h t h

Yet, in a globalized economy, each country has

an interest in seeing others achieve high levels of productive employment and social protection h h k (d k) with rights at work (decent work)

Employment and social protection policies and Employment and social protection policies and

  • utcomes are a shared interest within a

framework of strong, sustainable and balanced growth growth

20 International Labour Office (ILO)

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China Saudi Arabia Argentina Korea Japan Russia Germany France Canada United Kingdom Mexico Indonesia A li United States Italy India Brazil France

  • 6
  • 1

4 9 14 South Africa Turkey Australia

21 International Labour Office (ILO)

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Objective: G20 Employment and Labour

Ministers inputs to G20 framework: p

  • Employment to working age population ratio

p y g g p p

  • Unemployment (long term and youth

unemployment)

  • Earnings dispersion (D9/D1ratio; D9/D5 ratio)
  • Unit labour costs (total economy, manufacturing)
  • Others?

22 International Labour Office (ILO)

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SLIDE 23

Build on April 2010 G20 Labour and Build on April 2010 G20 Labour and

Employment Ministers’ Recommendations

Employment and social protection policies as

central to the G20 framework for strong central to the G20 framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth to:

  • Achieve a high level of productive employment
  • Achieve a high level of productive employment
  • Gradually expand coverage of social protection
  • Gradually apply principles of 1998 ILO Declaration

Gradually apply principles of 1998 ILO Declaration

23 International Labour Office (ILO)