[PPT] - G o o g l e ma t r i x o f t h e w o r l d n e PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

G

g

l e ma t r i x

f

t h e w

r

l d n e t w

r

k

f

e c

n
mi

c a c t i v i t i e s

V i v e k K a n d i a h

1

, H u b e r t E s c a i t h

2

a n d D i ma S h e p e l y a n s k y

1

S u p p

r

t e d b y E C F E T

p

e n p r

j

e c t N A D I N E 2 j u l y 2 1 5

1 L a b

r

a t

i

r e d e P h y s i q u e T h é

r

i q u e , U P S , T

u

l

u

s e , F r a n c e 2 Wo r l d T r a d e O r g a n i z a t i

n

, G e n e v a , S w i t z e r l a n d

SLIDE 2

2

I n t r

d

u c t i

n
A

i m : S t u d y r e l a t i

n

s h i p s a mo n g mu l t i p l e i n d u s t r i a l s e c t

r

s b e t w e e n c

u

n t r i e s , u s i n g G

g

l e ma t r i x f r a me w

r

k .

Me

t h

d
l
g

y : G

g

l e P e r s

n

a l i z e d V e c t

r

Me t h

d

( G P V M)

[ 1 ] L . E r ma n n a n d D . S h e p e l y a n s k y ( 2 1 5 ) ( C O MT R A D E )

D

a t a s e t s : I n p u t / O u t p u t ma t r i c e s g e n e r a t e d b y j

i

n t i n i t i a t i v e ( T i V A )

f

O E C D a n d WT O

K

e y r e s u l t s :

2

D r e d u c e d r a n k i n g s

S

e n s i t i v i t y t

p

r i c e v a r i a t i

n

s

SLIDE 3

3

I n t r

d

u c t i

n

: G P V M

Ma t r i x s i z e N = N

c

u

n t r i e s x N

s

s e c t

r

s

Country 1 Country 2 S1 S2 S3 S1 S2 S3 S1

0.7 1.2 1.0 2.1 8.0 3.9

S2

3.7 5.0 5.5 6.7 1.9 4.4

S3

0.3 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.7 4.2

S1

8.3 7.9 3.5 3.2 4.6 4.8

S2

0.9 7.1 1.3 3.5 5.5 3.8

S3

0.0 3.3 2.4 2.7 4.0 0.0

Country 1 Country 2

Mc

c ' s s '

:

mo n e y t r a n s f e r ma t r i x f r

m

c

u

n t r y c ' s e c t

r

s ' t

s

e c t

r

s i n c

u

n t r y c

Mc

c ' s s '

N

d

e s :

p a i r s

f

e l e me n t s c

mp
s

i n g t h e n e t w

r

k , e . g h e r e ( c

u

n t r y , s e c t

r

)

L i n k s :

d i r e c t e d l i n k s e . g ( c

u

n t r y 1 , s e c t

r

3 ) ( c

u

n t r y 2 , s e c t

r

2 )

SLIDE 4

4

I n t r

d

u c t i

n

: G P V M

Country 1 Country 2 S1 S2 S3 S1 S2 S3 S1

0.7 1.2 1.0 2.1 8.0 3.9

S2

3.7 5.0 5.5 6.7 1.9 4.4

S3

0.3 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.7 4.2

S1

8.3 7.9 3.5 3.2 4.6 4.8

S2

0.9 7.1 1.3 3.5 5.5 3.8

S3

0.0 3.3 2.4 2.7 4.0 0.0

Country 1 Country 2

Mc

c ' s s '

T

t

a l i mp

r

t F

r

c

mp

a r i s

n

p u r p

s

e , i mp

r

t R a n k ( b a s e d

n

mo n e y v

l

u me ) : w i t h a n d t

t

a l v

l

u me G

g

l e ma t r i x : p e r s

n

a l i z a t i

n

v e c t

r

n

r

ma l i z e d t

1

SLIDE 5

5

I n t r

d

u c t i

n

: G P V M

to keep the relative trade volumes in sectors

1 s t i t e r a t i

n

: C

mp

u t e P a g e R a n k a s G p = p w i t h α=0.5 2 n d i t e r a t i

n

: C

mp

u t e P a g e R a n k a s G p = p w i t h α=0.5 and

Wh y t h i s c h

i

c e

f

v e c t

r

?

O n e

f

G

g

l e ma t r i x ' s s t r e n g t h i s t h e « d e mo c r a t i c » t r e a t me n t

f

n

d

e s . H e r e d u e t

t

h e mu l t i p l e l i n k s t y p e ( s e c t

r

s ) t h e n

d

e s a r e p a i r s

f

c

u

n t r y a n d s e c t

r

s . T h e r e i s n

me

a n i n g i n t r y i n g t

t

r e a t e q u a l y t h e n

d

e s i n

u

r c a s e .

GPVM keeps the equal treatment in countries and breaks democracy in sectors

SLIDE 6

6

R e d u c e d P a g e R a n k

T h e p r e v i

u

s s t e p s c a n b e d e r i v e d f

r

t h e i n v e r t e d n e t w

r

k t

g

e t t h e E x p

r

t R a n k a n d t h e C h e i R a n k , t h e f

l

l w i n g r e d u c t i

n

s a l s

a

p p l i e s t

C

h e i R a n k .

T r a c i n g

v

e r s e c t

r

s : T r a c i n g

v

e r c

u

n t r i e s : K : i n d e x d e fj n e d b y

r

d e r i n g P a g e R a n k p r

b

a b i l i t i e s d e c r e a s i n g l y , P ( K ) > P ( K + 1 ) . F

r

C h e i R a n k , t h e i n d e x i s d e n

t

e d b y K * . S i mi l a r i n d e x e s c a n b e d e fj n e d f

r

c

u

n t r i e s K

c

, K *

c

f

r

s e c t

r

s K

s

, K *

s

a n d f

r

c

mp

a r i s

n

p u r p

s

e s w e d e fj n e s i mi l a r i n d e x e s f

r

I mp

r

t a n d E x p

r

t R a n k s .

SLIDE 7

7

D a t a s e t s : I / O ma t r i c e s

2 ma j

r

a s p e c t s

f

i n t e r n a t i

n

a l e c

n
my

C

mmo

d i t y t r a d e A c t i v i t y t r a d e

e

x c h a n g e

f

p r

d

u c t s

l

a r g e d a t a s e t s , r e l a t i v e l y e a s y t

p

r

d

u c e

C

O MT R A D E d a t a b a s e

e

x c h a n g e

f

e c

n
mi

c a c t i v i t i e s a n d s e r v i c e s

d

i ffjc u l t t

p

r

d

u c e , s c a r c e d a t a

I

n p u t / O u t p u t ma t r i c e s

[ 1 ] L . E r ma n n a n d D . S h e p e l y a n s k y ( 2 1 5 ) [ 2 ] V . K , H . E a n d D . S ( 2 1 5 )

O u r d a t a s e t s : I / O ma t r i c e s f

r

y e a r s 1 9 9 5 a n d 2 8 N c = 5 8 ( 5 7 c

u

n t r i e s a n d r e s t

f

t h e w

r

l d ) N s = 3 7 s e c t

r

s N = N c x N s = 2 1 4 6 E x c l u d i n g i n t e r n a l e x c h a n g e s !

SLIDE 8

8

D a t a s e t s : I / O ma t r i c e s

E x a mp l e s

f

s e c t

r

s a n d t h e i r c

r

r e s p

n

d a n c e t

t

h e I n t e r n a t i

n

a l S t a n d a r d I n d u s t r i a l C l a s s i fj c a t i

n

T h e l i s t

f

a l l s e c t

r

s a r e g i v e n a t t h e e n d

f

[

2 ] V . K , H . E a n d D . S ( 2 1 5 )

SLIDE 9

9

S p e c t r u m a n d P a g e R a n k

P a g e R a n k a n d r e d u c e d P a g e R a n k p r

b

a b i l i t y d e c a y s S p e c t r u m

f

G a n d I n v e r s e P a r t i c i p a t i

n

R a t i

ξ
P

a g e R a n k a n d C h e i R a n k d e c a y s a r e s i mi l a r

2

n d i t e r a t i

n

r e d u c e s fm u c t u a t i

n

s

S

i g n i fj c a n t s p e c t r a l g a p

SLIDE 10

10

2 D R a n k i n g s

(

K , K

*

)

G P V M( P a g e R a n k / C h e i R a n k ) ( 2 8 ) V

l

u me ( I mp

r

t / E x p

r

t ) ( 2 8 ) P

s

i t i

n
f

U S A i mp r

v

e d w h i l e C h i n a w e a k e n e d : P

s

s i b l y d u e t

b

r

a

d e r n e t w

r

k

f

U S A i n i mp

r

t a n t a c t i v i t y s e c t

r

s

SLIDE 11

11

2 D R a n k i n g s

(

K

c

, K

* c

)

C
u

n t r i e s a r e d i s t r i b u t e d a r

u

n d d i a g

n

a l

e

. g R u s s i a a n d S a u d i A r a b i a mu c h mo r e i mp

r

t a n t ( i mr p

v

e d r a n k i n g )

SLIDE 12

12

2 D R a n k i n g s

(

K

c

, K

* c

)

P

r

g

r e s s i

n
f

e me r g i n g c

u

n t r i e s a r e v i s i b l e : I n d i a , C h i n a a n d R u s s a i mp r

v

e d , b u t B r a z i l w e a k e n e d a b i t .

SLIDE 13

13

2 D R a n k i n g s

(

K

s

, K

* s

)

V

l

u me ( 2 8 ) G P V M ( 2 8 )

S
me

s e c t

r

s a r e

r

i e n t e d i n e x p

r

t ( e . g s = 2 )

t

h e r s i n i mp

r

t ( e . g s = 2 3 )

G

P V M h i g h l i g h t s n

d

e c

n

n e c t i v i t y : e . g s = 2 3 i s a l e a d i n g e x p

r

t s e c t

r

w h i l e i n mo n e t a r y v

l

u me i t w

u

l d b e s = 7

SLIDE 14

14

2 D R a n k i n g s

(

K

s

, K

* s

)

G P V M ( 2 8 ) G P V M ( 1 9 9 5 ) T h e c h a n g e

f

s e c t

r

i mp

r

t a n c e i n t i me i s w e l l v i s i b l e f

r

t h e h i g e s t r a n k i n g n

d

e s

SLIDE 15

15

S e n s i t i v i t y t

p

r i c e v a r i a t i

n
F
r

a g i v e n s e c t

r

s , i n c r e a s e t h e mo n e y t r a n s f e r t i n

Mc

c ' s s '

f r

m

1 t

1

+ δ

s

R

e c

mp

u t e G a n d G * a n d g e t n e w P a n d n e w P *

D

e t e r mi n e t h e d e r i v a t i v e s D = d P / d δ

s

a n d D * = d P * / d δ

s

T
h

i g h l i g h t r e l a t i v e c h a n g e s , c

mp

u t e D

l

= d l n ( P ) / d δ

s

a n d D

l

* = d l n ( P * ) / d δ

s

E x a mp l e

f

d e r i v a t i v e s c

mp

u t e d f

r

p r i c e i n c r e a s e i n s e c t

r

7 w i t h d a t a f r

m

2 8 ( s = 2 MI N / s = 7 P E T / s = 8 C H M / s = 1 8 MT R / s = 2 5 T R N )

SLIDE 16

16

S e n s i t i v i t y t

p

r i c e v a r i a t i

n

F

r

c

mp

a r i s

n

, t h e d e r i v a t i v e s c

mp

u t e d u s i n g I mp

r

t R a n k a n d E x p

r

t R a n k ( V

l

u me ) f

r

t h e s a me d a t a s e t a r e s h

w

n b e l

w

: P a g e R a n k / C h e i R a n k g i v e a b e t t e r p i c t u r e

f

p r i c e s e n s i t i v i t y t h a n v

l

u me r a n k s b e c a u s e t h e n e t w

r

k s t r u c t u r e i s t a k e n i n t

a

c c

u

n t

SLIDE 17

T r a d e B a l a n c e

B a l a n c e : T

p

p a n e l s h

w

s b a l a n c e c

mp

u t e d w i t h P a g e R a n k f

r

y e a r 2 8 , b

t

t

m

p a n e l s h

w

s t h e s a me d a t a s e t s w i t h v

l

u me r a n k s .

SLIDE 18

18

T r a d e B a l a n c e S e n s i t i v i t y

C
mp

u t e n e w P a n d P * a f t e r p r i c e i n c r e a s e i n a g i v e n s e c t

r
D

e t e r mi n e n e w b a l a n c e v a l u e

C
mp

u t e d e r i v a t i v e d B / d δ

s

T

p

p a n e l s h

w

s t h e b a l a n c e s e n s i t i v i t y t

c
s

t i n c r e a s e i n s e c t

r

7 ( ma n u f a c t u r e

f

c

k

e , r e fj n e d p e t r

l

e u m a n d n u c l e a r f u e l s ) F

r

c

mp

a r i s

n

, t h e s a me i s s h

w

n w i t h v

l

u me r a n k s i n b

t

t

m

p a n e l

SLIDE 19

19

T r a d e B a l a n c e S e n s i t i v i t y

E x a mp l e s

f

b a l a n c e d e r i v a t i v e s p r

fj

l e F

r

t w

d

i fg e r e n t c

u

n t r i e s ( b l a c k C u r v e s ) . C h i n a h a s s i g n i fj c a n t p

s

i t i v e v a l u e s f

r

s e c t

r

s s = 4 , 1 4 , 1 6 . ( ma n u f a c t u r e

f

t e x t i l e ;

ffjc

e ma c h i n e r y ; r a d i

e

t c ) a n d n e g a t i v e v a l u e s f

r

s = 7 , 2 5 , 2 7 ( p e t r

l

e u m ; l a n d t r a n s p

r

t ; fj n a n c i a l i n t e r me d i a t i

n

) . U S A h a s s i g n i fj c a n t p

s

i t i v e v a l u e s f

r

s e c t

r

s s = 2 3 , 2 9 , 3 2 . ( s a l e s

f

mo t

r

v e h i c l e s ; r e n t i n g ma c h i n e r y ;

t

h e r b u s i n e s s ) a n d n e g a t i v e v a l u e s f

r

s = 1 1 ( ma n u f a c t u r e

f

b a s i c me t a l s ) .

SLIDE 20

20

B

c

S e n s i t i v i t y t

l

a b

r

c

s

t

Wh a t a b

u

t t h e r e s p

n

s e

f

t h e w

r

l d t

a

p r i c e i n c r e a s e

f

a l l i n d u s t r i e s i n a g i v e n c

u

n t r y ?

S

ma l l i n c r e a s e 1 t

1

+ σ

c

C
mp

u t e n e w P , P * a n d B

D

e t e r mi n e

d B / d σ

c

H e r e t h e e fg e c t s

f

l a b

r

c

s

t i n c r e a s e a r e s h

w

n f

r

2 8 , t h e i n c r e a s e h a p p e n s i n C h i n a ( t

p

p a n e l ) a n d U S A ( b

t

t

m)

.

SLIDE 21

21

C

n

c l u s i

n
B

e t t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g

f

i n t e r n a t i

n

a l t r a d e n e t w

r

k c

u

l d p r

v

i d e i n s i g h t a n d h e l p t

p
l

i c y ma k e r s

G
g

l e ma t r i x a p p r

a

c h i s q u i t e s i mp l e a n d p

w

e r f u l t

t

a k e t h e n e t w

r

k s t r u c t u r e i n t

a

c c

u

n t a n d g i v i n g a mo r e c

r

r e c t p i c t u r e t h a n p u r e mo n e t a r y r a n k i n g s

C

O MT R A D E a n d I / O ma t r i c e s p r

v

i d e t w

c
mp

l e me n t a r y d a t a s e t s t

a

p p l y n e t w

r

k a p p r

a

c h a n g a i n i n s i g h t

f

i n t e r n a t i

n

a l e c

n
my
P

r i c e s h

c

k s a r e a v e r y c

mp

l i c a t e d p h e n

me

n

n

w i t h h i g h l y n

n

t r i v i a l e fg e c t s , b u t t h e G P V M g i v e s a fj r s t d e c e n t a p p r

a

c h t

t

a c k l e t h i s p r

b

l e m

SLIDE 22

22

R e f e r e n c e s

[ 1 ] L . E r ma n n a n d D . L . S h e p e l y a n s k y , G

g

l e ma t r i x a n a l y s i s

f

t h e mu l t i p r

d

u c t w

r

l d t r a d e n e t w

r

k , E u r . P h y s . J . B 8 8 , 8 4 ( 2 1 5 ) [ 2 ] V . K a n d i a h , H . E s c a i t h a n d D . L . S h e p e l y a n s k y , G

g

l e ma t r i x

f

t h e w

r

l d n e t w

r

k

f

e c

n
mi