Future Profitability Brad Walmsley Anim imal l Genetic ics and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
future profitability
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Future Profitability Brad Walmsley Anim imal l Genetic ics and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 08, 2023 316 likes •985 views

BreedObject: Breeding for Future Profitability Brad Walmsley Anim imal l Genetic ics and Br Breedin ing Unit it, Univ iversit ity of f New Engla land, Arm rmid idale le In Introduction BreedObject Selection Indexing

slide-1
SLIDE 1

BreedObject: Breeding for Future Profitability

Brad Walmsley

Anim imal l Genetic ics and Br Breedin ing Unit it, Univ iversit ity of f New Engla land, Arm rmid idale le

slide-2
SLIDE 2

In Introduction

  • BreedObject
  • Selection Indexing system for

BREEDPLAN

  • BREEDPLAN
  • Multi-trait BLUP evaluation
slide-3
SLIDE 3

In Introduction

  • BreedObject
  • Selection Indexing system for

BREEDPLAN

  • BREEDPLAN
  • Multi-trait BLUP evaluation
  • Large impact on profit (index)
  • $1.79 / cow / year (1999-2004)
  • ~$5.00 in leading herds

Banks 2005 Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture

slide-4
SLIDE 4

In Introduction

  • BreedObject
  • Selection Indexing system for

BREEDPLAN

  • BREEDPLAN
  • Multi-trait BLUP evaluation
  • Large impact on profit (index)
  • $1.79 / cow / year (1999-2004)
  • ~$5.00 in leading herds

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Profitability Trend ($/cow/yr) Year of Birth

Value of Genetic Improvement - South

~$2.83 / cow / yr Best herds over $5.00 / cow / yr

  • Banks 2015 Association for the Advancement of

Animal Breeding and Genetics

~$4.00 / cow / yr

slide-5
SLIDE 5

In Introduction

  • Change is constant
  • Markets & production systems evolve
  • Genetic change
  • Priorities move
  • New traits important
  • Etc ….

Always room for improvement

slide-6
SLIDE 6

Objectives

  • Brief BreedObject History
  • BreedObject Developments
  • Plans for the Future
slide-7
SLIDE 7

Brie ief BreedObje ject His istory ry

  • Research began during 1980’s, released 1990’s
slide-8
SLIDE 8

Approach

whole commercial production system

(birth to slaughter including cow herd)

Cow-calf Growout Finishing

Genes Customer

  • Wholesale
  • Retailer
  • Consumer

X

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Driving Force

Profit = Income – Costs

  • Influenced by numerous traits to varying degrees
  • Can change between systems
slide-10
SLIDE 10

What Im Impacts Profit?

fertility survival weight feed intake milk calving ease growth feed intake calving ease growth feed intake growth feed intake

whole commercial production system

(birth to slaughter including cow herd)

Cow-calf Growout Finishing

Genes

CALF : COW : meat % marbling carcass specs dressing %

Barwick 2002 World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production Barwick & Fuchs 1992 Animal Breeding – A modern approach

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Predicting Feed Requirement

Freer et al 2007 Corbett et al 1990

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Hereford

Commercial Production Environment

Her Herefor

  • rd
slide-13
SLIDE 13

Div iversity in in Beef In Industry ry

Trait Range Fertility (weaning rate) 50% 98% Calving Difficulties 0% 40% Age @ 400kg 10 months 2 years Cow Weight 400 kg 900 kg Annual Death Rate 1% 20% Heifer Retention Rate 20% 100% Carcass Weight 150 kg 500 kg Fat Non-compliance 0% 25% Marble Score 10 Feed Costs <$100/t >$300/t

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Hereford

Commercial Production Environment Seedstock Environment

Her Herefor

  • rd
slide-15
SLIDE 15

Objective Traits Selection Criteria

Desirable to improve, impact profit Measurable and related to objective

Barwick 1992 Animal Breeding – A modern approach

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Objective Traits Selection Criteria

Cow Weaning Rate Days to Calving Scrotal Size

Barwick 1992 Animal Breeding – A modern approach

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Economics of Traits

  • Not everything is linear
  • Some prices have optima’s
  • Fat specifications
  • Other pricings structures
  • Marble Score

50 100 150 200 250

2 4 6 8 10 12

Price Premium ($/kg carcass wt)

Marble Score (AUS Meat score)

Barwick & Henzell 2003 Association for the Advancement of Animal Breeding and Genetics

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Brie ief BreedObje ject His istory ry

  • Developed in the early 1980’s, released 1990’s
  • Approach:
  • Whole commercial production system
  • Driven by Profit – always included costs

Feed Costs

  • Breeding Objective – Desired to be improved, impact profit
  • Selection Criteria – Can be measured and related to objective
  • Non-linear economic values
slide-19
SLIDE 19

Todays Objectives

  • Brief BreedObject History
  • BreedObject Developments
  • Plans for the Future
slide-20
SLIDE 20

New Features: BreedObje ject Version 6

  • Inclusion of all feed costs – NFI in objective (all breeds)
  • NFI EBVs in Indexes (where available)
  • Enhanced feedlot phase modelling for pasture-feedlot

systems

  • Enhanced cow weight valuing
  • Cow condition score valuing

Barwick et al 2018 Journal of Animal Science

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Growth curve - Previously

age

Liveweight (kg)

finished sale weight cow weight

Age

birth (calving ease) Example: feedlot- finished system

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Growth curve - Previously

Liveweight (kg)

finished sale weight cow weight

Age

Example: feedlot- finished system birth (calving ease)

slide-23
SLIDE 23

Growth curve - Now

age

Liveweight (kg)

finished sale weight cow weight

Age

Example: feedlot- finished system

weaning weight entry weight

birth (calving ease)

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Growth curve - Now

age

Liveweight (kg)

finished sale weight cow weight

Age

Example: feedlot- finished system

weaning weight entry weight

birth (calving ease)

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Growth curve - Now

age

Liveweight (kg)

finished sale weight cow weight

Age

Example: feedlot- finished system

weaning weight entry weight

birth (calving ease)

slide-26
SLIDE 26

Growth curve - Now

age

Liveweight (kg)

finished sale weight cow weight

Age

Example: feedlot- finished system

weaning weight entry weight

birth (calving ease)

slide-27
SLIDE 27

Growth curve - Now

age

Liveweight (kg)

finished sale weight cow weight

Age

Example: feedlot- finished system

weaning weight entry weight

birth (calving ease)

slide-28
SLIDE 28

Growth curve - Now

Liveweight (kg)

finished sale weight cow weight

Age

Example: feedlot- finished system

weaning weight entry weight

birth (calving ease)

slide-29
SLIDE 29

Cow Weig ight

Economic value encompasses

  • feed for maintaining wt.
  • feed for change in wt.
  • return from surpl. cows

(at const. other performance)

Cow feed costs have to be considered

  • ver:
  • whole year

(effect isn’t constant) &

  • whole lifetime

(a multiplier is involved) Walmsley et al 2015 Association for the Advancement of Animal Breeding and Genetics

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Annual Production Cycle

limited feed surplus feed Cow Age (months) Cow Liveweight (kg)

slide-31
SLIDE 31

Cow Weig ight Pattern - Previously

limited feed surplus feed Cow Age (months) Cow Liveweight (kg)

mating mating weaning calving

slide-32
SLIDE 32

Cow Weig ight Pattern - Previously

limited feed surplus feed Cow Age (months) Cow Liveweight (kg)

mating mating weaning calving

Cow weight change constant throughout the annual cycle Equal

slide-33
SLIDE 33

Cow Weig ight Pattern - Now

limited feed surplus feed Cow Age (months) Cow Liveweight (kg)

mating mating weaning calving

Cow weight change varies throughout the annual cycle Different

Temperate

  • r

Tropical Systems

slide-34
SLIDE 34

Cow Weig ight - Now

Time (months in annual cycle) Cow Liveweight (kg)

Cow Body Condition Score 3 4 5 6 3 4 12 months 1100 lbs Cow A Cow B

slide-35
SLIDE 35

Cow Weig ight - Now

Time (months in annual cycle) Cow Liveweight (kg)

Cow Body Condition Score 12 months 1540 lbs Cow A Cow B 3 4 5 6 3 4 1100 lbs

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Cow Weig ight - Now

Time (months in annual cycle) Cow Liveweight (kg)

Cow Body Condition Score 12 months

380 lbs

Cow A Cow B 3 4 5 6 3 4 1100 lbs 1540 lbs

slide-37
SLIDE 37

Cow Weig ight - Now

Time (months in annual cycle) Cow Liveweight (kg)

Cow Body Condition Score 12 months Cow A Cow B

440 lbs

3 4 5 6 3 4 1100 lbs 1540 lbs

380 lbs

slide-38
SLIDE 38

Cow Weig ight - Now

Time (months in annual cycle) Cow Liveweight (kg)

Cow Body Condition Score 12 months

480 lbs

Cow A Cow B

Cow B

  • 100 lbs more weight than cow A
  • From BCS 3 to BCS 6

3 4 5 6 3 4 1100 lbs 1540 lbs

380 lbs 440 lbs

slide-39
SLIDE 39

Age at Lowest Cow Condition Score

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 85 89 95 99 Frequency (number of cows) Age when cows recorded their lowest lifetime condition score (months) BRAH (N = 1030) TCOMP (N = 1130)

slide-40
SLIDE 40

(mean) 6 8 3 min

max

desired range

higher condition than needed lower condition than needed critically low condition

Cow Condition Score

Wasted feed = cow NFI Requires extra supplementary feed Welfare Issue

Barwick et al 2018 Journal of Animal Science

slide-41
SLIDE 41

Cow Feed Requirement

2000 4000 6000 1985 1995 2005 2015 EBV (MJ) Year

Cow Feed Requirement

~ 0.88 kg DM/day

Walmsley et al 2017 Association for the Advancement of Animal Breeding and Genetics

slide-42
SLIDE 42

Cow/calf Feed Requirement

2000 4000 6000 8000 1985 1995 2005 2015 EBV (MJ) Year ~ 1.52 kg DM/day

Cow & Calf Feed Requirement

Walmsley et al 2017 Association for the Advancement of Animal Breeding and Genetics

slide-43
SLIDE 43

Growth responses – Feed pric ice

Birth Wt 200D Wt 400D Wt 600D Wt MCWt $160 $100 $40 V4 Increasing Decreasing $160

slide-44
SLIDE 44

Growth responses – Feed pric ice

Birth Wt 200D Wt 400D Wt 600D Wt MCWt $160 $100 $40 V4 Increasing Decreasing $160

slide-45
SLIDE 45

Growth responses – Feed pric ice

Birth Wt 200D Wt 400D Wt 600D Wt MCWt $160 $100 $40 V4 Increasing Decreasing $160

slide-46
SLIDE 46

Growth responses – Feed pric ice

Birth Wt 200D Wt 400D Wt 600D Wt MCWt $160 $100 $40 V4 Increasing Decreasing $160

slide-47
SLIDE 47

Growth responses – Feed pric ice

Birth Wt 200D Wt 400D Wt 600D Wt MCWt $160 $100 $40 Old Increasing Decreasing $160

slide-48
SLIDE 48

Bull Rankings

50 100 150 200 250 300 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320

Sire Rank Feed Price ($/tonne) Sire A Sire B

1

Walmsley et al 2018 World Congress on Genetics Applied to Livestock Production

slide-49
SLIDE 49

Hereford Expected EBV Changes

  • 1.5
  • 1
  • 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 CE-d CE-m BWT 200D 400D 600D MCW DTC EMA IMF

Trait Change

Southern Hereford Northern Hereford

slide-50
SLIDE 50

New Features: BreedObje ject Version 6

Continued…

  • Methane modelling
  • Enhanced market specifications valuing
  • Non-linear for all traits, if appropriate
slide-51
SLIDE 51

Wagyu Expected EBV Changes

  • 1.5
  • 1
  • 0.5

0.5 1 1.5 CE-d CE-m BWT 200D 400D 600D MCW MILK SS DTC CWT EMA Rump RBY MARB

Trait Change

Breeder Self-Replacing F1 Terminal

slide-52
SLIDE 52

New Features: BreedObje ject Version 6

Continued…

  • Methane modelling
  • Enhanced market specifications valuing
  • Non-linear for all traits, if appropriate
  • Culling effects via specific traits
slide-53
SLIDE 53

Todays Objectives

  • Brief BreedObject History
  • BreedObject Developments
  • Plans for the Future
slide-54
SLIDE 54

Future

  • Redevelopment of the Feeding Standards
  • Work began 2019
  • Integration into indexes when complete
  • Across-breed indexes
  • Will be driven by outputs from Repronomics and Southern

Multibreed projects

Barwick et al 2020 Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics

slide-55
SLIDE 55

Future

“Indexes are complicated. 2 animals, same index, Different EBVs”

  • Alternatives:

Whole Indexes or Sub-indexes or Something else

  • Development of DeSireBull
slide-56
SLIDE 56

Traditional In Index

IndexW = b1EBV1 + b2EBV2 + … + bnEBVn

Where: b is the index weight (economic importance) & EBV is multi-trait BLUP EBVs, from traits 1 to n

slide-57
SLIDE 57

Trait Sub-Groupings

Subgroup1 = b1EBV1 + b2EBV2 … Subgroupn = bmEBVm + … + bnEBVn

IndexSG = Subgroup1 + Subgroup2 + … + SubGroupn

slide-58
SLIDE 58

Sub-Grouping Example

IndexW = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10 = 55 SG1 = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4= 10 SG2 = 5 + 6 + 7 = 18 SG3 = 8 + 9 + 10 = 27 IndexSG = SG1 + SG2 + SG3 = 55 = IndexW

Fertility Growth Carcass

slide-59
SLIDE 59

Sub-Grouping Options

Group Trait

On-Farm

Calving Ease (D & M) Weaning Weight Maternal (Milk) Entry Weight Scrotal Size Weaning Rate Cow Weight Efficiency - postweaning

Off-Farm

Sale Weight Efficiency – finishing Dressing % Yield % Fatness Marbling

  • Many grouping possibilities
  • Logical Combinations
  • On-Farm
  • Off-Farm
  • Others???
slide-60
SLIDE 60

Scenario Testing

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Index Index Sub-Group Index Sub-Group Sub-Group I & I I & S S & S

Seedstock

Commercial

slide-61
SLIDE 61

Genetic Change in in Profitability

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Index Trend ($) Year I & I I & S S & S

slide-62
SLIDE 62

Genetic Change in in Profitability

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Index Trend ($) Year I & I I & S S & S

17%

slide-63
SLIDE 63

Genetic Change in in Profitability

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Index Trend ($) Year I & I I & S S & S

57% 17%

slide-64
SLIDE 64

Learnings

  • For profitability gains:
  • Critical seedstock selection occurs using indexes
  • Some scope for commercial bull buyers to use sub-groups
  • Best result achieved using selection indexes
slide-65
SLIDE 65

Acknowledgements

  • Steve Barwick
  • Anthony Henzell
  • David Johnston
  • Rob Banks
  • Matt Wolcott
  • Laura Penrose
  • Sam Clark
slide-66
SLIDE 66

Fin inal Remarks

  • Demonstratable positive impacts on beef profitability
  • Better ability to describe commercial production realities
  • Future developments planned for greater utility
  • Key focus on “Commercial Profitability”