Future Hunters Lesson 4 The Emerging Operational Environment (OE) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Future Hunters Lesson 4 The Emerging Operational Environment (OE) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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UNCLASSIFIED Future Hunters Lesson 4 The Emerging Operational Environment (OE) Whats in this Lesson 1. Learning Objectives 2. Lesson intent 3. Reading Assignment 4. Warm up by watching the OE video 5. Strategic and Operational

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Future Hunters Lesson 4 The Emerging Operational Environment (OE)

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What’s in this Lesson

  • 1. Learning Objectives
  • 2. Lesson intent
  • 3. Reading Assignment
  • 4. Warm up by watching the OE video
  • 5. Strategic and Operational Environments Defined
  • 6. Exploring PMESII-PT to characterize the OE
  • 7. Practice-how do you look at your OE?
  • 8. Writing Assignment
  • 9. Quiz
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Learning Objectives

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By the end of this lesson, you will be expected to:

  • Describe the Army approach to characterize the OE.
  • Describe the PMESII-PT framework
  • Discuss the TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative and other

efforts to enable broader engagement in problem solving

  • Discuss OE trends: past, present and emerging.
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Lesson Intent

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  • Introduce students to the concept of the OE
  • Provide students with a basic understanding of

how and why it is generated for Army training, education and leader development.

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Reading Assignment

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  • TC7-102: The Operational Environment and Army

Learning https://armypubs.army.mil/epubs/DR_pubs/DR_a/pdf/ web/tc7_102.pdf. Chapter 1.

  • The OE and the Changing Character of Future

Warfare.(PDF)

  • TRADOC G-2 OE Overview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRUcx_MyTOc

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Let’s Warm Up!

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TRADOC G-2 OE Overview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRUcx_MyTOc

Watch this video clip -can you add any ideas to this vision of the emerging OE as part of the peer review process?

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Strategic and Operational Environments Defined

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Strategic environment: a set of general conditions, circumstances and influences throughout the world that can affect military

  • perations. (Global environment in which the president employs

all the instruments of national power (Diplomacy, Information, Military and Economic)) Operational environment: a composite of conditions, circumstances and influences that affect the employment of capabilities and bear on the decisions of the commander.

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Characterizing the OE Introduction to PMESII-PT

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  • OEs are constantly changing
  • It is the interaction of variables that characterizes the OE
  • The framework of OE analysis, which helps to generate

understanding is based upon 8 variables (PMESII-PT)

  • The next few slides will describe these variables
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Characterizing the OE Political Variable

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Political variable is the distribution of responsibility of power at all levels of governance-both formal and covert

Credit: Wikipedia

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Characterizing the OE Military Variable

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Political variable explores the military and paramilitary capabilities of all relevant actors (enemy, friendly, and neutral) in a selected OE. Analysis includes organizational structure and equipment holdings for capabilities and limitations.

https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Hot%20Spots/Documents/Russia/2017-07-The-Russian-Way-of-War-Grau-Bartles.pdf

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Characterizing the OE Economic Variable

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The economic variable encompasses individual and group behaviors related to producing, distributing and consuming resources across an

  • OE. The variable explores how

external influences impact the area of interest and include legitimate, black market and gray market activities

https://www.economist.com/china/2020/07/01/hong-kong-begins-life- under-a-new-chinese-national-security-law

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Characterizing the OE Social Variable

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The social variable describes the cultural, religious and ethnic composition within an OE. Analysis would explore beliefs, values, customs, and behaviors of society members. Do not discount the importance of the social variable.

https://techcrunch.com/2014/04/12/culture-eats-strategy-for-breakfast/

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Characterizing the OE Information Variable

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The information variable depicts the nature, scope and effects of individuals, organizations, and systems that collect, process, disseminate or act on information. It includes formal and informal means of communication.

https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/D

  • ctrine/concepts/joint_concepts_jcoie.pdf?ve

r=2018-08-01-142119-830

The JCOIE recognizes that Individuals and groups today have access to more information than entire governments once possessed. They can swiftly organize and act on what they learn, sometimes leading to violent change.

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Characterizing the OE Infrastructure Variable

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The infrastructure variable portrays basic facilities, services and installations needed for the functioning of a community or society.

https://eiuperspectives.economist.com/infrastructure-cities/investing-african-infrastructure

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Characterizing the OE Physical Terrain

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Geography and man-made structures are considered. Weather and potential natural disasters are often considered under this variable.

Credit: Brittanica

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Characterizing the OE Time

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Time describes durations of critical activities and events and also how time is perceived from a socio-cultural perspective of critical

  • actors. For the Army, time is a scarce resource.

ADP 5-0 The Operations Process

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Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE”

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For me, I want to ask the question “What will the Critical Thinking Enterprise (CTE) look like in 2030?” I will start thinking about the PMESII-PT variables. What were they like 20 years ago? How are they changing? What are the drivers of these changes for each of the variables?

Motto for the CTE: intellectual Firestarter for

  • TRADOC. WILL

THIS STILL BE THE MOTTO IN 2030?

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Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE”

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For each of you, pick a question and start to think about how all the variables will unfold over the next ten years (the sweet spot for Future Hunters-remember?)

IF YOU CAN’T COME UP WITH A QUESTION, HERE ARE A FEW THAT ARE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR THE ARMY:

  • What will JROTC be like in 2030?
  • What will Cadets be like in 2030?
  • What will it mean to get a High School education in 2030?
  • What will at mean to get a University Education in 2030?
  • What will the Army look like in 2030?
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Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE”

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KEY POINTS

  • Remember that there are many OEs.
  • When thinking about ”your OE”, it is

important to consider all of the variables ….

  • But…remember that the OE is a

composite* of conditions, circumstances and influences …

*A composite is a substance that is stronger because it is made up of two or more separate materials that, when combined, produce a material with characteristics different from the individual components. Composite armour is a type of vehicle armour consisting

  • f layers of different material such as metals, plastics, ceramics or air. Credit Wikipedia.

Plasan Sandcat composite armored vehicle

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Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE”

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KEY POINTS

  • Therefore…we must look at how all
  • f the variables weave together

(converge and diverge) in creating your OE.

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=43122865

Divergent is a movie about a future world where people are divided into sectors based upon one distinct quality (one variable). But what happens when people are good at more than one thing (complex, many variables at

  • nce)….watch the movie to find out!!!

…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sutgWjz 10sM

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Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE”

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KEY POINTS

  • The cone of plausibility-as we move further and further from the

present we can imagine a range of probable, preferable, and plausible futures. We’ll talk more about this in future lessons.

Credit: Prescient2050.com

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Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE”

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KEY POINTS

  • The best way to blend all of the variables and describe your OE is to

tell a story-create a scenario.

  • This is done in industry (Shell Oil, eg.) and it is done in the Army

(Mad Scientist) and in numerous other governmental organizations

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/what

  • are-scenarios.html
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Let’s Practice Creating “Your OE”

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KEY POINTS

  • Common to both industry and the Army

is the power of peer review, broader engagement in problem solving.

  • This is done to prevent strategic

surprise…uncovering multiple perspectives of the future

  • The National Intelligence Council and

NATO also practice strategic foresight and they involve a wide range of people from many different perspectives

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Writing Assignment

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Pick one variable of the operational environment and discuss how it has changed in ”your OE” and how you think it might play

  • ut into 2030. Think about how it might

impact (converge) with the other variables of the OE. Write a 1-3 page paper about the significance of this variable to you, and perhaps even the Army!!! Post your work on both APAN and Cadet Portfolio.

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Quiz

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https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIp QLSdEAmIFPZVYmBefBf9gPK5H0Si- 4sD3tTtlYA08dS- _Q6BUlA/viewform?usp=sf_link