Future Grids in Australia Luke Reedman | PowerFactory Users' - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Future Grids in Australia Luke Reedman | PowerFactory Users' - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Future Grids in Australia Luke Reedman | PowerFactory Users' Conference and Future Networks Technical Seminar 2013 6 September2013 ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME ENERGY FLAGSHIP In this talk Where have we come from Some recent changes

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Future Grids in Australia

ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME

Luke Reedman | PowerFactory Users' Conference and Future Networks Technical Seminar 2013 6 September2013

ENERGY FLAGSHIP

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In this talk

  • Where have we come from
  • Some recent changes
  • The next 10-20 years

2 | Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman

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Where have we come from (last 10 years)

Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman 3 |

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Peak and average demand

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Source: CSIRO calculations from AEMO data

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Electricity generation

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50 100 150 200 250 TWh

AUS Principal electricity generation by fuel type (TWh)

Wind Solar Oil products Natural gas Coal seam methane Brown coal Black coal Biofuels Hydro Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013

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Wholesale electricity prices

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 NSW QLD SA SNOWY TAS VIC

$/MWh

Source: AEMO

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Retail electricity prices

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Sources: ABS 2012, Producer Price Indexes, Australia, cat. no. 6427.0; Consumer Price Index, Australia, cat.

  • no. 6401.0.
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Some recent changes

Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman 8 |

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Electricity consumption declining

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188 190 192 194 196 198 200 202 204 206 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Consumption (TWh) Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013

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Electricity consumption declining

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TWh

Consumption by NEM State (TWh)

TAS SA QLD VIC NSW & ACT Total Consumption Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013

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Possible reasons for NSW

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Source: Intelligent Energy Systems (2013), IES Insider, Issue No. 14

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Solar PV

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Source: Australian PV Association

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Solar PV

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End of Solar Bonus Scheme, April 2011 Reduction of solar Credits Multiplier, June 2011 Reduction of Solar Credits Multiplier, June 2012 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 kW MW

Solar PV Capacity in Australia

Solar PV Capacity Average PV system size Source: Clean Energy Regulator

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Peak demand

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Source: CSIRO calculations from AEMO data

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‘Strong’ La Nina on the east coast

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Source: Bureau of Meteorology

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Electricity generation

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50 100 150 200 250 TWh

AUS Principal electricity generation by fuel type (TWh)

Wind Solar Oil products Natural gas Coal seam methane Brown coal Black coal Biofuels Hydro Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013

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Average wholesale prices down

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10 20 30 40 50 60 194,000 196,000 198,000 200,000 202,000 204,000 206,000 208,000 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Average price ($/MWh) Total Energy GWh Total energy Average price Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013

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Wholesale price spikes subdued

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37 35 66 34 102 131 120 48 88 47 27 175 39 37 22 12 11 59 1 22 12 13 19 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 NSW QLD SA VIC TAS NEM Days above $300 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013

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The next 10-20 years

Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman 19 |

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The next 10-20 years

  • Will electricity consumption continue to decline?
  • Will peak demand rebound?
  • What about centralised generation?
  • More PV?
  • Prices rising?
  • What about storage and EVs?
  • Can retailers keep their customers?

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Electricity consumption forecast

Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman 21 |

Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013

140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 260,000

Financial year

Residential and commercial* Industrial Consumption Transmission Losses Auxiliary Loads Rooftop PV Energy Efficiency Annual energy - as generated Annual energy - as sent out Annual energy segments

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Electricity consumption growth, some uncertainty

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Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Annual energy consumption (GWh)

2013 High 2013 Medium 2013 Low Actuals

2013 NEFR native annual energy forecasts (10-year outlook - GWh) - NEM

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Peak demand rebound

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Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013

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Peak demand rebound

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Source: Bureau of Meteorology

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More rooftop PV

Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman 25 |

Source: AEMO, National Electricity Forecasting Report 2013

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

Annual energy consumption (GWh)

2013 High 2013 Medium 2013 Low Actuals 2012 High 2012 Medium 2012 Low

2013 NEFR rooftop PV annual energy forecasts (10-year outlook - GWh) - NEM

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Peak demand and solar PV: market level

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Source: CSIRO calculations from AEMO data

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Peak demand and solar PV: network level

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Source: SKM (2013), Assessment of Economic Benefits of a National Energy Savings Initiative

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Retail prices up some more

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Source: AEMC (2013), Electricity Price Trends Report

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The ‘death spiral’

  • Networks have fixed costs because they build capacity ($/kVA)
  • They recover their costs through energy charges (c/kWh)
  • If energy consumption falls (e.g., PV, energy efficiency), fewer kWh

to recover fixed costs

  • Creates a revenue shortfall
  • In the next round, the network charge (c/kWh) has to rise
  • This feeds through to higher retail prices
  • This leads to greater incentive to reduce consumption
  • And so on…

Energy pathways | Luke Reedman 29 |

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Storage, just around the corner?

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Can retailers keep their customers?

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Source: AER (2012), State of the Energy Market 2012

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Likely investment

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Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

  • ther

hydro geothermal solar coal gas wind

Percentage of proposed power stations by fuel type (MW)

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More wind, but…

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Source: Reedman et al. (2012), ‘Quantifying the Impact of Setback Limits on the Possible Deployment of Wind Farms in Australia’, Paper presented at the International Energy Workshop.

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Large scale solar coming, PV…

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2013 - 10 MWp at Greenough River, WA

Photo provided by First Solar

2007 - 305 kWp on Alice Springs Crown Casino

Photo provided by SunPower Corporation

2012 - 1.22 MWp at University of QLD 2009 - 1.0 MWp on Adelaide Showground

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… can solar thermal fight back?

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Source: U.S. Department of Energy

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What about gas?

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500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 PJ Natural gas 2009-10 projections Natural gas 2010-11 projections Natural gas 2011-12 projections

Comparison of historical Australian domestic natural gas demand forecasts

Source: ESAA (2013), Electricity Gas Australia 2013

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CCS and nuclear

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CCS

  • Number of technologies being

investigated

  • Delays in timeline
  • CCS expected to be at

commercial scale in 2020 at the earliest

Nuclear power

  • Currently prohibited in some

states

  • No local experience
  • Lack of community

acceptance

  • Environmental issues and

catastrophic risk

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New demand: electric vehicles

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Million Based on vehicle manufacturer projections Based on IEA (2011)

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The take away

  • Considerable uncertainty
  • Demand has changed and will continue to change
  • More modular centralised supply
  • Less network build, but still needs spend
  • Decreasing utilisation needs to be tackled (‘death spiral’ in the

extreme case)

  • Pricing needs to change, challenge is consumer buy-in

Future Grids in Australia | Luke Reedman 39 |

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Questions?

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Thank you

Dr Luke Reedman Stream Leader, Energy Modelling CSIRO Energy Flagship t +61 2 49606057 e luke.reedman@csiro.au w www.csiro.au/Organisation- Structure/Flagships/Energy-Flagship.aspx

ENERGY FLAGSHIP

Acknowledgments Paul Graham John Ward Chris Fell