SLIDE 1
Heavy fall in Swedish GDP growth
Note: Annual percentage change. Forecast from the Monetary Policy Report July 2020. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.
From crisis management to recovery the Cecilia Skingsley - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
From crisis management to recovery the Cecilia Skingsley - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
From crisis management to recovery the Cecilia Skingsley Riksbank's role in First Deputy Governor the next phase of the crisis DI Konferens (3 September 2020) Heavy fall in Swedish GDP growth Note: Annual percentage change. Forecast
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
Extensive measures to hold down interest rates and facilitate credit supply
Loans to the banks for
- nward lending
to companies
500 billion
Utilised:
165 billion
Purchases of government, mortgage and municipal bonds as well as commercial paper
500 billion
Utilised:
179 billion
Increased access to safe and liquid Assets
Unlimited
Utilised:
29 billion
Loans in US dollars
USD 60 billion
Utilised:
2 billion
SLIDE 4
The Riksbank's measures support the recovery and inflation
Market rates have come down Credit supply has been maintained
Sources: Macrobond, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note: Yields on 5-year bonds, per cent, and annual growth rate
- respectively. The vertical lines show the Riksbank's extraordinary
meeting to deal with the pandemic on 11 March.
SLIDE 5
Major economic consequences of the pandemic
Note: Index December 2019 = 100. Sources: Eurostat, Federal Reserve and Statistics Sweden
Industrial production
70 80 90 100 110 70 80 90 100 110 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 United States Euro area Sweden
SLIDE 6
Rapidly rising unemployment
Note: Per cent of labour force aged 16-64. Source: Arbetsförmedlingen (Swedish public employment service)
July: 9.3 %
SLIDE 7
Low inflation now – expected to rise
Note: Forecast from the Monetary Policy Report in July 2020, the points indicate the outcomes after the Monetary Policy Report was
- published. Annual percentage change.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.
SLIDE 8
International developments: Inflation also below 2 per cent target in many other countries
Note: Inflation refers to the CPI, the CPIF and the HICP. Annual data. Sources: The Bank of England, the ECB, the Federal Reserve and the Riksbank
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
UK, CPI USA, CPI Euro area, HICP Sweden, CPIF
SLIDE 9
Central banks’ policy rates are at or close to the lower bound
Sources: National central banks and the Riksbank.
SLIDE 10
The pandemic changes the playing field
- Large number of countries and central banks in the same boat – low
inflation, policy rate at or close to lower bound
- The core question: “How to ensure that monetary policy has the scope
to counteract recessions in the future?”
- The US central bank is adjusting its goals and strategy. An adaptation to