From Big Picture to Taxes Auke Hoekstra 16-5-2017 PAGE 0 About me - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

From Big Picture to Taxes

Auke Hoekstra

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About me

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 My mission is to accelerate the transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles by providing knowledge to decision makers.  Senior advisor smart mobility TU/e where I am the resident expert on EV (after prof Steinbuch) and help with starting new research projects and lead the ABCD model.  Strategic consultant ElaadNL, Alliander, FET, NKL & province of Brabant (100k EV plan and Fuse).  Linking pin to parliament / economic affairs (study with Ecofys)  auke@aukehoekstra.nl / @aukehoekstra / 06-51614294

Solar and wind are quickly becoming the cheapest sources of energy

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Main advantage of EV is the motor

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Motor is 3x more efficient: less energy cost Motor does not require maintenance: less cost

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ICE Electrische motor 1,6 kW/kg 4,3 kW/kg 3x power 0,4kW/lr 13,6 kW/lr 40x smaller 20-25% efficient 90-98% efficient 3-4x efficiency

Many moving parts

1 moving part Maintenance free Leuk!

Overall picture

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Photosynthesis

0,38% Rerinary, transport & filling up 0,16% Fuel car 0,03% PV 20% Transport + charge 17% EV 14%

Battery prices are main driver for adoption

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Battery prices are main driver for adoption

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200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Price $/kWh

Year

Battery degradation is under control

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Many charging speeds

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What Physical Standard will Win?

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Inductive Charging?

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Charging while driving?

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How do we trade energy in a flexible system that optimizes renewable energy use and spares the grid?

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ABCD model

Agent-based Buying Charging Driving model Auke Hoekstra Senior advisor smart mobility TU/e Strategic consultant ElaadNL, Alliander, Urgenda, FET & NKL E-mail: auke@aukehoekstra.nl Twitter: @aukehoekstra Phone: 06-51614294

The ABCD model

EV is an interrelated area

• Battery and drive-train prices determine the succes of EVs and

the success of EVs determines battery and drive train prices

• The succes of EVs is determined by available models and

available models are determined by the succes of EVs

• Driving behavior determines how interesting an EV is, where

you need charge points and what room you have for smart charging.

• The availability of charge points co-determines the desirability
• f EVS which co-determines the need for charge points

(chicken-egg problem).

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The developments play on different levels so we need a multi-level model

• (Inter)national to model climate problems and

technological advances (batteries, drivetrains, renewable energy generation)

• Regional to model driving to and from destination

and the required charge points

• Individual to simulate buying/charging decisions and

model the load on the grid

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Agent-based modeling? People first, equations later.

• Bottom-up without imposing the structure of the

system in advance (no pre-determined feedback loops)

• Ability to divide the complexity into self contained

"agents" makes it manageable (linear instead of exponential growth of compexity when you add variables)

• Using recognizable agents and a bottom-up approach

means we can enlist the help of domain experts

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Multi-layer with buildings, roads, EVs, chargepoints and electricity grid.

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Overall model

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Ecofys + TU/e study for Economic Affairs

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• Customer groeps
• Car classes (A, C, E)
• Drive trains
• New/second hand
• Developments in
• Battery
• Motor
• Incentives
• Energieprices

TCO model Adoption Charging Infra

>

TCO developments show fast adoption

>

Analyse driving behavior

>

Prioritize infra:

–

Autonomous

–

Home

–

Work

–

Public

–

Fast

Conservative Scenario

http://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys-2016-eindrapport- toekomstverkenning-elektrisch-vervoer.pdf

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Recommendations

• Stimulate work charging (no tax incentives needed)
• Facilitate public charging (Energy Tax + CPO

incentives)

• Create a good network of fast chargers (could be

stimulated more than currently with e.g. feed in tarriff)

• Good TCO education! (saves lots of money)
• Facilitate smart charging (decentralized renewable

energy, grid costs, social cohesion)

• Promote autonomous driving and thus car sharing

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