Fractured Nation: Widening Partisan Polarization ahead of 2020 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Fractured Nation: Widening Partisan Polarization ahead of 2020 Presidential Election Findings from the 2019 American Values Survey Robert P. Jones, Ph.D. | @robertpjones #AVS2019 @RobertPJones Robert P. Jones, Ph.D. The 2019 American
Robert P. Jones, Ph.D. | @robertpjones #AVS2019
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7 74 21 34 42 11 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2016 2019
Sources: PRRI 2016 American Values Survey; PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Percent who agree Republican Independent Democrat
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77 72 63 50 49 46 48 17 26 63 60 50 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Health Care Climate Change Foreign Interference in U.S. Elections Terrorism Immigration Crime
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Percent who rate the following issues as critical Democrat Republican
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65 69 63 55
41 43 31 36
26 21 20 35 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Society as a whole has become too soft and feminine. Discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against blacks and… Immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic background. It is necessary to believe in God in order to be moral and have good values.
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Percent who agree Republican Independent Democrat
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94 49 17 5 48 80 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Republican Independent Democrat
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Percent who say... The Republican Party is trying to protect the American way of life againist outside threats. The Republican Party has been taken over by racists.
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17 50 83 82 46 15 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Republican Independent Democrat
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Percent who say... The Democratic Party is trying to make capitalism work for the average American. The Democratic Party has been taken over by socialists.
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68 52 40 29 45 57 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Republican Independent Democrat
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Percent who say capitalism is... A system in which government stays out of the way and allows private businesses to succeed and make a profit. A system where the interests of businesses and company shareholders are placed above the interests of workers and the middle class.
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38 49 65 61 50 32 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Republican Independent Democrat
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Percent who say socialism is... A system in which government provides citizens with health insurance, retirement support and access to free higher education. A system where the government controls key parts of the economy such as utilities, transportation and communication industry.
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89 55 32 11 45 68 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Republican Independent Democrat
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Percent who... Favor Oppose
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51 67 80 54 75 91 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Republican Independent Democrat
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Percent who... FAVOR: Allowing immigrants living in country illegally a way to become citizens, provided they meet certain requirements. OPPOSE: An immigration border policy that separates children from their parents and charges parents as criminals when they enter the country without permission
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42 50 60 68 74 18 21 17 23 20 40 29 23 8 6 1 1 1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Pete Buttigieg Kamala Harris Elizabeth Warren Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement.
Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents Favorable Unfavorable Don't know enough to say Don't know/Refused
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19 1 1 3 1 3 1 4 7 16 16 24 14 1 2 3 2 2 6 4 11 16 14 10 2 1 4 3 6 4 5 7 9 8 10 20 30 40 50 Undecided Will not vote in… Amy Klobuchar Andrew Yang Julián Castro Cory Booker Beto O’Rourke Pete Buttigieg Kamala Harris Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Joe Biden
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement.
First Choice Second Choice Third Choice
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28 29 31 37 40 43 33 29 24 10 20 30 40 50 All Americans Registered Voters Likely Voters
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Thinking ahead to the 2020 election for president, which of the following describes how you are thinking about your vote? I will support Donald Trump no matter who the Democratic candidate is. I will support the Democratic candidate no matter who it is. My vote will depend on who the Democratic candidate is.
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59 51 46 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Health care Terrorism Jobs and employment
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Among Uncommitted Americans Who Say Candidate Issue Positions Most Important, Percent who rate the following issues as critical
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18 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 12 12 13 24 31 32 10 20 30 40 No Democratic Candidate Selected Tim Ryan Michael Bennet Beto O’Rourke Pete Buttigieg Julián Castro Tulsi Gabbard Amy Klobuchar Kamala Harris Andrew Yang Cory Booker Elizabeth Warren Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement.
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58 57 76 87 83 84 86 81 80 82 30 25 28 42 38 41 40 31 40 32 13 8 6 13 11 10 8 7 14 6 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 9/2015 3/2016 9/2016 3/2017 9/2017 3/2018 9/2018 3/2019 9/2019
Source: PRRI Trend, 2015-2019
Percent who say they have favorable or very favorable view Republicans Independents Democrats
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3 13 37 7 29 51 11 16 5 76 42 6 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Democrat Independent Republican
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement.
Percent who... Approve, and almost nothing Trump could do to lose approval Approve, but Trump could lose approval Disapprove, but Trump could win approval Disapprove, and almost nothing Trump could do to gain approval
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69 71 73 74 73 80 79 61 65 68 72 72 72 80 82 90 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Non-Fox News viewer White college graduate Non-White Evangelical Protestant Men Women Republican/Lean (All) White non-college graduate White Evangelical Protestant Fox News Viewer
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents Mid-September Mid-October
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20 55 25 17 23 46 8 30 62 57 65 73 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 President Trump's conduct makes them more likely to support him. President Trump's conduct makes no difference in their support for him. President Trump's conduct makes them less likely to support him. President Trump has encouraged white supremacist groups. President Trump has damaged the dignity of the presidency. They wish President Trump's speech and behavior were more consistent with other presidents.
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Percent who say All Americans Republican
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21 45 48 74 49 66 68 78 6 4 5 4 5 12 9 7 70 51 46 22 44 14 21 24 20 40 60 80 100 White evangelical Protestant White mainline Protestant White Catholic White unaffiliated All White Americans Hispanic Protestants Hispanic Catholics Black Protestants
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Do you think that President Trump's decisions and actions have... Encouraged white supremacist groups Discouraged white supremacist groups Not had an impact either way
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30 40 40 47 47 51 4 7 6 11 6 7 58 72 69 77 78 88 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
2/2017 6/2017 10/2017 2/2018 6/2018 10/2018 2/2019 6/2019 10/2019
Sources: PRRI 2017-2019 American Values Survey; PRRI February 2017 Survey; PRRI August 2017 Survey.
Percent who favor All Americans Republicans Democrats
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16 37 40 47 53 68 43 4 12 31 36 37 46 46 59 37 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Fox Viewers White evangelical Protestant Non-college graduates Men Women Non-Fox Viewers College graduates Religiously unaffiliated All Whites
Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey; PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement.
Among Key White Groups, Percent who favor Mid-September Mid-October
Robert P. Jones, Ph.D. | @robertpjones #AVS2019