Fractured Nation: Widening Partisan Polarization ahead of 2020 Presidential Election Findings from the 2019 American Values Survey Robert P. Jones, Ph.D. | @robertpjones #AVS2019 @RobertPJones Robert P. Jones, Ph.D.
The 2019 American Values Survey • Tenth Annual American Values Survey, hosted by The Brookings Institution • Survey of 2,527 adults in AmeriSpeak, a probability-based panel run by NORC at University of Chicago, conducted 08/22-09/15, 2019. • Supplemental survey of 1,032 adults conducted 10/10-13, 2019. • Supported by Carnegie Corporation of New York, Unitarian Universalist Veatch Program at Shelter Rock, and the New World Foundation. 2
F RACTURED N ATION : D RAMATIC P ARTISAN P OLARIZATION
Partisan Flips on Direction of the Country Country Heading in the Right Direction, 2016 vs. 2019, by Party Affiliation Percent who agree Republican Independent Democrat 80 74 70 60 50 42 40 34 30 21 20 11 7 10 0 2016 2019 Sources: PRRI 2016 American Values Survey; PRRI 2019 American Values Survey. 4
No Partisan Overlap in Top Three Critical Issues Percent who rate the following issues as critical Democrat Republican 77 Health Care 48 72 Climate Change 17 Foreign Interference 63 26 in U.S. Elections 50 Terrorism 63 49 Immigration 60 46 Crime 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 5 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Large Partisan Divides about Changing Norms and Demographics Percent who agree Republican Independent Democrat 65 Society as a whole has become too soft 41 and feminine. 26 Discrimination against whites has 69 become as big a problem as 43 discrimination against blacks and… 21 Immigrants are invading our country and 63 replacing our cultural and ethnic 31 20 background. 55 It is necessary to believe in God in order 36 to be moral and have good values. 35 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 6 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Democrats Believe Republican Party Has Been Taken Over by Racists Percent who say... The Republican Party is trying to protect the American way of life againist outside threats. The Republican Party has been taken over by racists. 94 100 90 80 80 70 60 49 48 50 40 30 17 20 5 10 0 Republican Independent Democrat 7 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Republicans believe Democratic Party Has Been Taken Over by Socialists Percent who say... The Democratic Party is trying to make capitalism work for the average American. The Democratic Party has been taken over by socialists. 90 83 82 80 70 60 50 46 50 40 30 17 15 20 10 0 Republican Independent Democrat 8 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Divergent Partisan Conceptions of Capitalism Percent who say capitalism is... A system in which government stays out of the way and allows private businesses to succeed and make a profit. A system where the interests of businesses and company shareholders are placed above the interests of workers and the middle class. 80 68 70 57 60 52 45 50 40 40 29 30 20 10 0 Republican Independent Democrat Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey. 9
Divergent Partisan Conceptions of Socialism Percent who say socialism is... A system in which government provides citizens with health insurance, retirement support and access to free higher education. A system where the government controls key parts of the economy such as utilities, transportation and communication industry. 70 65 61 60 50 49 50 38 40 32 30 20 10 0 Republican Independent Democrat Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey. 10
Partisan Divides on Restrictive Immigration Scale Percent who... 100 Favor Oppose 89 90 80 68 70 60 55 50 45 40 32 30 20 11 10 0 Republican Independent Democrat Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey. 11
BUT More Partisan Agreement on Path to Citizenship and Family Separation Percent who... FAVOR: Allowing immigrants living in country illegally a way to become citizens, provided they meet certain requirements. OPPOSE: An immigration border policy that separates children from their parents and charges parents as criminals when they enter the country without permission 100 91 90 80 75 80 67 70 60 54 51 50 40 30 20 10 0 Republican Independent Democrat 12 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
2020 AND S UPPORT FOR D EMOCRATIC C ANDIDATES : A MONG D EMOCRATS AND L EANERS
Favorability of Top Five Democratic Candidates Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents Favorable Unfavorable Don't know enough to say Don't know/Refused Bernie Sanders 74 20 6 Joe Biden 68 23 8 1 Elizabeth Warren 60 17 23 Kamala Harris 50 21 29 1 Pete Buttigieg 42 18 40 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 14 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement.
Top Three Choices for Democratic Nominee for President Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents First Choice Second Choice Third Choice Joe Biden 24 14 8 Elizabeth Warren 16 16 9 Bernie Sanders 16 11 7 Kamala Harris 7 4 5 Pete Buttigieg 4 6 4 Beto O’Rourke 1 2 6 Cory Booker 3 2 3 Julián Castro 1 3 4 Andrew Yang 3 2 1 Amy Klobuchar 1 1 2 Will not vote in… 1 Undecided 19 14 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 15 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement.
2020 AND S UPPORT FOR D EMOCRATIC C ANDIDATES : A MONG U NCOMMITTED A MERICANS
One Third of Americans Say 2020 Vote will Depend on Democratic Nominee Thinking ahead to the 2020 election for president, which of the following describes how you are thinking about your vote? I will support Donald Trump no matter who the Democratic candidate is. I will support the Democratic candidate no matter who it is. My vote will depend on who the Democratic candidate is. 50 43 40 37 40 33 31 29 29 28 30 24 20 10 0 All Americans Registered Voters Likely Voters Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey. 17
Top Three Critical Issues Among Uncommitted Americans Among Uncommitted Americans Who Say Candidate Issue Positions Most Important, Percent who rate the following issues as critical 70 59 60 51 50 46 40 30 20 10 0 Health care Terrorism Jobs and employment Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey. 18
Top Candidate Preferences over Trump, Among Uncommitted Americans Select all that apply Bernie Sanders 32 Joe Biden 31 Elizabeth Warren 24 Cory Booker 13 Andrew Yang 12 Kamala Harris 12 Amy Klobuchar 9 Tulsi Gabbard 9 Julián Castro 9 Pete Buttigieg 8 Beto O’Rourke 7 Michael Bennet 7 Tim Ryan 6 No Democratic Candidate Selected 18 0 10 20 30 40 19 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement.
L OOKING A HEAD TO 2020: P RESIDENT T RUMP ’ S S UPPORT
Trump Favorability, 2015-2019 Percent who say they have favorable or very favorable view Republicans Independents Democrats 100 87 86 84 83 90 82 81 80 76 80 70 58 57 60 50 42 41 40 40 38 40 32 31 30 28 25 30 14 13 13 20 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 10 0 9/2015 3/2016 9/2016 3/2017 9/2017 3/2018 9/2018 3/2019 9/2019 Source: PRRI Trend, 2015-2019 21
Partisan Evaluations of President Trump’s Job Performance Percent who... Approve, and almost nothing Trump could do to lose approval Approve, but Trump could lose approval Disapprove, but Trump could win approval Disapprove, and almost nothing Trump could do to gain approval Republican 37 51 5 6 Independent 13 29 16 42 Democrat 3 7 11 76 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey Supplement. 22
Preference for Trump over Other Republican Candidate, Among Republican Subgroups Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents Mid-September Mid-October 90 Fox News Viewer 82 White Evangelical Protestant 79 80 White non-college graduate 80 72 Republican/Lean (All) 73 72 Women 74 72 Men 73 68 Non-White Evangelical Protestant 71 65 White college graduate 69 61 Non-Fox News viewer 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 23 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Judgments about Trump’s Speech and Behavior Percent who say All Americans Republican They wish President Trump's speech and behavior 73 46 were more consistent with other presidents. President Trump has damaged the dignity of the 65 23 presidency. President Trump has encouraged white 57 17 supremacist groups. President Trump's conduct makes them less likely 62 25 to support him. President Trump's conduct makes no difference in 30 55 their support for him. President Trump's conduct makes them more likely 8 20 to support him. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 24 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
Is Trump Encouraging White Supremacists? A Look at White Americans by Religion Do you think that President Trump's decisions and actions have... Encouraged white supremacist groups Discouraged white supremacist groups Not had an impact either way Black Protestants 78 7 24 Hispanic Catholics 68 9 21 Hispanic Protestants 66 12 14 All White Americans 49 5 44 White unaffiliated 74 4 22 White Catholic 48 5 46 White mainline Protestant 45 4 51 White evangelical Protestant 21 6 70 0 20 40 60 80 100 25 Source: PRRI 2019 American Values Survey.
I NCREASING S UPPORT FOR I MPEACHMENT
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