Formation of environment protection strategy for risk and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Formation of environment protection strategy for risk and uncertainty diminution (EnviroRisk project)

V.V. Penenko and E.A. Tsvetova ICM&MG SB RAS Novosibirsk

1.Optimal design

• Satisfying the criteria and limitations of

ecological safety and sustainability, social and economic suitability and effectiveness.

• Goal is to define the admissible values of

parameters for the entire period of functioning the object.

• Risk assessment of “beyond-the-project”

situations

• 2. Optimal management
• The main goal is to find the mechanisms of

source parameters regulation via the feedback in accordance with the given criteria and restrictions in tracking the situation development.

• Parameters of sources might be changed

with time.

• 3. Ecological audit
• The goal is to answer the question if the

safety norms are fulfilled or not

• if not

– revealing unknown ( unrecorded) sources – parameters correction

• Risk assessment of “beyond-the-project”

situations

Universal technology for environmental modeling (1)

• Functionals

– goal and quality – restrictions: equality-type, inequality-type – observational – augmented (listed above+ the model in variational form)

General form of functionals

K k dDdt t x F

t

D k k k

,..., 1 , ) , ( ) ( ) ( = = Φ

∫

r r r χ ϕ ϕ

k

F are the functions of the given form, dDdt

k

χ

are Radon’s measures on

t

D , ) (

* t k

D ℑ ∈ χ

.

Quality functionals

, ) , ( ) ( ) ( ) (

∫

− − = Φ

t

D k m T m k

dDdt t x M r r r r r r χ ϕ ϕ ϕ ϕ ϕ

“Measurement” functionals

m t mk mk D K k

D x dDdt x x t x

t

∈ − = Φ

∫ ∑

=

r r r r r r , ) ( ) , ( ) (

1

δ ϕ ϕ Restriction functionals ) , ( ( , ) , ( ≤ ≤ t x N t x

k

r r r r ϕ ϑ ϕ

distributive constraints

dDdt t x

k k D k k

t

) , ( ) ) ( ) ( ( ) ( r r r r χ ϕ ϑ ϕ ϑ ϕ + = Φ

∫

Universal technology for environmental modeling (2)

• Optimal numerical schemes constructed with the

help of variational principle for bistationary conditions of augmented functional

• A set of algorithms of forward and inverse

modeling for each augmented functional

• Sensitivity and uncertainty functions and

sensitivity relations for each set of functionals !! Data compression to exclude the inner degrees of freedom

Universal technology for environmental modeling (3)

• Algorithms for development of optimal

strategies in space of external degrees of freedom with respect to goal functionals by means of sensitivity relations analysis

Priorities ( as formulated in 2007)

• Uncertainty assessment
• Atmospheric chemistry ( gases + aerosols)

– algorithms for stiff systems – problem of non-consistency: monotonizators, self- limiting diffusion for divers components – chemical data assimilation ( adjoint problems and sensitivity algorithms) – adaptive algorithms

• Targeting for data assimilation, risk assessment
• Revealing unknown sources
• Optimal problems for design of sustainable

development strategy

Siberian Federal District. Tomsk industrial region as aggregated source of pollution

Animation

Acknowledgements

The work is supported by

• RFBR

Grant 07-05-00673

• Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Program 16

• Department of Mathematical Science of RAS

Program 1.3.

• European Commission

contract No 013427