FORESIGHT : Case studies in policy and strategy European Commission, Joint Research Centre Brussels, November 27, 2014 Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Mt Eliza Executive Education, Sunshine Coast University, Meta- future.org
Learning and the Future • Zero Loop – overwhelmed, Pretending • Single Loop – take aways - Doing • Double Loop – outside of paradigm learning, entering the unknown – Knowings • Narrative learning, finding and creating your story - Being
Challenge Assumptions
Not just observe but transform
See the world differently
See multiple perspectives, and the evolving overall
The future is an asset , a resource and a narrative to be employed .
Joan of Arc and Noah 10% of Americans believe Joan of Arc was Noah’s wife ( and 12 million believe lizard people run the country )
MAPPING THE FUTURE CHANGING IMAGES OF THE FUTURE
Health
Changing images of the futures
Changing images, changing demographics Thirty-four percent of Victoria GPs have trained in meditation and seventy-seven believe it should be federally funded. Eighty percent of Australian gps have referred patients to complementary medicine.
Mindfulness - meditation Studies show: • 87% less heart disease • 55.4% less tumours • 50.2% less hospitalization • 30.6% less mental disorders • 30.4% less infectious diseases • Turns “stress” genes off • Among the elderly, compared to control groups they live 23% longer, 49% less likely to die from cancer, 30% less likely to die from heart disease.
Geomedicine • Do you live near fast food restaurants • Chances of strokes go up (association) • Rise of geo-medicine
2025 health – genomics meets meditation, plus participatory health • Prediction • Prevent • Personalize • Participate – peer to peer health
Linking the three horizons
THE PROBLEM • Rapidly changing world, with heterogeneous perspectives and rates of change • Multiple perspectives, with success often dependent on stakeholder inclusion (but we don’t like the other stakeholders) • Perception of loss of agency, how to recover capacity to influence
Transformative Futures Thinking = Regain influence and capacity by exploring alternative futures and envisioning desired
CASE STUDIES FUTURES IN PRACTICE – FORESIGHT LEARNINGS
1. Old behavior dies hard – the used future
Challenge the “factory” • Creating digital pedagogies with students as stakeholders instead only principal “in charge” • Redesign spaces, and • We are all learners – an ecology of insight and foresight
CLA ON THE KNOWLEDGE REVOLUTION • Computers per child • Innovation • The classroom • Learning and fun spaces • Industrial • Knowledge economy • The factory, I am in • The playground, we are charge all learners
E-health Bangladesh – challenge the used future • Moving the data not the patient • Local community health workers • The fly over story
Error 1 • Living in the past, the used future – the old behaviour even though it no longer serves current reality or the desired future.
Your used future? Give one example of how your organization continues a used future
Words of Yang Chu, while weeping at the crossroads Isn’t it here that you take a half step wrong and wake up a thousand miles astray?
2 Scan the environment and make the changes
Are colas the new tobacco? BECOME A WELLNESS COMPANY BY 2035?
HEALTH INSURANCE • Move from generic risk profile to person specific risk profile: real time, age specific, monitoring. • Move from Insurer to Health knowledge services navigator
Insurance to Bio-informatics to Driverless trucks
Cast away to Casting networks – use the rivers
International NGOs World Vision, Oxfam, Caritas, Communify 1. Float an Initial public offering 1. Government funded 2. Follow the kiva.model i.e. become a facilitator linking 2. Individual donations those in need plus quality control e.g. uber for the 3. Poverty reduction homeless 3. Disappear 4. Paternalistic 4. Become a social movement 5. The NGO approval check for best practice • Together we do • We do to you
Error 2 • Used current uncertainties to develop their scenarios • Missed global financial crisis • Risk – present defines the future, inattention to emerging issues, weak signals. The right answer not a foresight learning culture.
3 DON’T WAIT FOR THE BAD TIMES Dubbo, NSW Mayors and Laoag, Philippines
Error 3 ENGAGE IN FORESIGHT WHEN REPTILIAN BRAIN IS ACTIVE
4 Library futures 2025 One stop Direct brain shop downloads facilitates and the holodeck “the heart of “amazing new the places” community” The new publisher, using trust Digital dinosaurs to create the new library “Libraries quieter than “we co - ever” author”
THE FIFTH SCENARIO what is missing or your preferred?
4a Cairns Airport 2025 Green smart Airport City learning shared revenue personalized stream). airport – It is the customer destination experience – my airport Transform Become the Cairns – airline – Air become a Mackay lobbyist – change the culture
MALAYSIA TEACHING AND LEARNING 2025 LECTURE LEARNING FROM SMART PEDAGOGY WISDOM OF CHOICE EVERYWHERE EXAM BASED SELF-DIRECTED PARTNERSHIPS DIRECTED PARTNERSHIPS CONFORMANCE AND DEMOCRATIZATION BLENDED LEARNING WHOLESOME CERTFICATION FORCE FEED EAT ALL YOU CAN OMNIVORE NUTRITUOUS BUFFET (Ala Carte)
Error 4 • Assume there is only one future instead of alternative futures • Getting it right versus adaptability and emergence ”
5 Where are you in the macro-pattern? • CYCLICAL – IBN KHALDUN Past Present Possible Future • LINEAR – AUGUSTE COMTE AND HERBERT SPENCER Future Present • THE PENDULUM – PITIRIM SOROKIN Sensate Integrated Ideational • THE SPIRAL – P.R. SARKAR
6 From Vision to Reality • ICBA – from visions to funded strategy • CEO – champion • Engaged foresight process • Funding • Link to present and journey to the future
Gold coast 2037 Personal vision Link with elections Broad stakeholders, politicians, citizens, experts New vision budgeted! light rail green spaces family culture Three national awards for best project
The backcast • Small shifts leading to major changes • Quarantining the voices of cynicism (it won’t work), fatigue (I’m too tired) and sabotage (I’ll destroy it) • Remembering the milestones
Error 6 • Vision not linked to funding • Vision not held by champions • Vision disconnected from dominant narrative • Vision not linked to milestones through backcasting
7 Link story to strategy • Narrative not linked to strategy or vision • Culture eats strategy for breakfast • Transform inner story and link it to vison- strategy
Metaphors and crime CRIME DATA PRESENTED REMAINS THE SAME WITH EACH METAPHOR Catching and jailing criminals Education and ending poverty Crime as a Crime beast as a virus
Castle surrounded by hungry wolves
Policing as a Roman coliseum Police as “christians” Lions as criminals, getting faster and more dangerous Citizens watching
International policing
Super industry experts to educators and therapists
From the “collection” to the ecosystem of alternatives Keeper of the collection Innovator of the gardens
Libraries in transition Books loaned Visits, workshops, engagement Organizing and referencing texts Organizing and creating new spaces: physical, digitally amplified and augmented reality Expert Facilitation and co-curation The keeper of the collection Innovator of the gardens
Leaking oil tanker to Optimus Prime
Singapore – Ministry of Transport
Oxfam Governance Asia 2030 Fresh food market – pluralistic, inclusive, democratic Rule of the big man - feudal
Cinderella's Alchemy - Milojevic Deconstruction : Passivity Reconstruction : Entrepreneurship and gender partnership,
From the labyrinth to Icarus to Dadealus
Error 7 • Focus on strategy and forget – lack of mindfulness - on culture and narrative • Engineer the future instead of transforming “bob the builder.”
8 Focus on the change agents Jenny Brice Carriers of infection, change agents Resisters, quarantine Asleep, wake up Possible carriers, infect them
Error 8 - overly focused on the resisters
Learning 9 - Include everyone! A world as access-able as a Para-Olympics village Redesign homes, schools, cities to assist inclusion Creating a culture of inclusion, integrating the other Known just as “Julie”
Error 9 • Only include the experts (delphi) • Or only include senior managers and executives (strategy) • Board does not reflect membership - AVA
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