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FORESIGHT : Case studies in policy and strategy European Commission, Joint Research Centre Brussels, November 27, 2014 Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Mt Eliza Executive Education, Sunshine Coast University, Meta- future.org

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FORESIGHT:

Case studies in policy and strategy

European Commission, Joint Research Centre Brussels, November 27, 2014 Sohail Inayatullah Professor, Tamkang University, Mt Eliza Executive Education, Sunshine Coast University, Meta- future.org

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Learning and the Future

  • Zero Loop – overwhelmed,

Pretending

  • Single Loop – take aways -

Doing

  • Double Loop – outside of

paradigm learning, entering the unknown – Knowings

  • Narrative learning, finding

and creating your story - Being

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Challenge Assumptions

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Not just observe but transform

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See the world differently

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See multiple perspectives, and the evolving overall

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The future is an asset, a resource and a narrative to be employed.

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Joan of Arc and Noah

10% of Americans believe Joan of Arc was Noah’s wife (and 12 million believe lizard people

run the country)

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CHANGING IMAGES OF THE FUTURE MAPPING THE FUTURE

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Health

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Changing images of the futures

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Changing images, changing demographics

Thirty-four percent of Victoria GPs have trained in meditation and seventy-seven believe it should be federally funded. Eighty percent of Australian gps have referred patients to complementary medicine.

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Mindfulness - meditation

Studies show:

  • 87% less heart disease
  • 55.4% less tumours
  • 50.2% less hospitalization
  • 30.6% less mental disorders
  • 30.4% less infectious diseases
  • Turns “stress” genes off
  • Among the elderly, compared to

control groups they live 23% longer, 49% less likely to die from cancer, 30% less likely to die from heart disease.

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Geomedicine

  • Do you live near fast

food restaurants

  • Chances of strokes go

up (association)

  • Rise of geo-medicine
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2025 health – genomics meets meditation, plus participatory health

  • Prediction
  • Prevent
  • Personalize
  • Participate – peer to peer

health

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Linking the three horizons

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THE PROBLEM

  • Rapidly changing world, with

heterogeneous perspectives and rates of change

  • Multiple perspectives, with success
  • ften dependent on stakeholder

inclusion (but we don’t like the

  • ther stakeholders)
  • Perception of loss of agency, how

to recover capacity to influence

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Transformative Futures Thinking = Regain influence and capacity by exploring alternative futures and envisioning desired

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FUTURES IN PRACTICE – FORESIGHT LEARNINGS

CASE STUDIES

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  • 1. Old behavior dies hard – the used

future

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Challenge the “factory”

  • Creating digital pedagogies with

students as stakeholders instead

  • nly principal “in charge”
  • Redesign spaces, and
  • We are all learners – an ecology of

insight and foresight

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CLA ON THE KNOWLEDGE REVOLUTION

  • Computers per child
  • The classroom
  • Industrial
  • The factory, I am in

charge

  • Innovation
  • Learning and fun spaces
  • Knowledge economy
  • The playground, we are

all learners

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E-health Bangladesh – challenge the used future

  • Moving the data not the

patient

  • Local community health

workers

  • The fly over story
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Error 1

  • Living in the past,

the used future – the old behaviour even though it no longer serves current reality or the desired future.

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Your used future?

Give one example of how your

  • rganization

continues a used future

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Words of Yang Chu, while weeping at the crossroads Isn’t it here that you take a half step wrong and wake up a thousand miles astray?

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2 Scan the environment and make the changes

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Are colas the new tobacco?

BECOME A WELLNESS COMPANY BY 2035?

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HEALTH INSURANCE

  • Move from generic risk

profile to person specific risk profile: real time, age specific, monitoring.

  • Move from Insurer to Health

knowledge services navigator

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Insurance to Bio-informatics to Driverless trucks

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Cast away to Casting networks – use the rivers

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International NGOs

World Vision, Oxfam, Caritas, Communify

  • 1. Government funded
  • 2. Individual donations
  • 3. Poverty reduction
  • 4. Paternalistic
  • We do to you
  • 1. Float an Initial public offering
  • 2. Follow the kiva.model i.e.

become a facilitator linking those in need plus quality control e.g. uber for the homeless

  • 3. Disappear
  • 4. Become a social movement
  • 5. The NGO approval check for

best practice

  • Together we do
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Error 2

  • Used current uncertainties to

develop their scenarios

  • Missed global financial crisis
  • Risk – present defines the

future, inattention to emerging issues, weak

  • signals. The right answer not

a foresight learning culture.

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3 DON’T WAIT FOR THE BAD TIMES

Dubbo, NSW Mayors and Laoag, Philippines

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Error 3

ENGAGE IN FORESIGHT WHEN REPTILIAN BRAIN IS ACTIVE

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4 Library futures 2025

Direct brain downloads and the holodeck “amazing new places” One stop shop facilitates “the heart of the community” The new publisher, using trust to create the new library “we co- author” Digital dinosaurs “Libraries quieter than ever”

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THE FIFTH SCENARIO what is missing or your preferred?

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4a Cairns Airport 2025

Airport City shared revenue stream). It is the destination Transform Cairns – become a lobbyist – change the culture Green smart learning personalized airport – customer experience – my airport Become the airline – Air Mackay

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LECTURE LEARNING FROM EVERYWHERE SMART PEDAGOGY WISDOM OF CHOICE EXAM BASED SELF-DIRECTED PARTNERSHIPS DIRECTED PARTNERSHIPS CONFORMANCE AND CERTFICATION DEMOCRATIZATION BLENDED LEARNING WHOLESOME FORCE FEED EAT ALL YOU CAN (Ala Carte) OMNIVORE NUTRITUOUS BUFFET

MALAYSIA TEACHING AND LEARNING 2025

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Error 4

  • Assume there is
  • nly one future

instead of alternative futures

  • Getting it right

versus adaptability and emergence”

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5 Where are you in the macro-pattern?

  • CYCLICAL – IBN KHALDUN
  • LINEAR – AUGUSTE COMTE AND

HERBERT SPENCER

  • THE PENDULUM – PITIRIM

SOROKIN

  • THE SPIRAL – P.R. SARKAR

Present

Future

Past Present Possible Future

Sensate Integrated Ideational

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6 From Vision to Reality

  • ICBA – from visions to funded

strategy

  • CEO – champion
  • Engaged foresight process
  • Funding
  • Link to present and journey to the

future

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Gold coast 2037

Personal vision Link with elections Broad stakeholders, politicians, citizens, experts New vision budgeted! light rail green spaces family culture Three national awards for best project

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The backcast

  • Small shifts leading

to major changes

  • Quarantining the

voices of cynicism (it won’t work), fatigue (I’m too tired) and sabotage (I’ll destroy it)

  • Remembering the

milestones

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Error 6

  • Vision not linked to

funding

  • Vision not held by

champions

  • Vision disconnected from

dominant narrative

  • Vision not linked to

milestones through backcasting

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7 Link story to strategy

  • Narrative not linked to

strategy or vision

  • Culture eats strategy for

breakfast

  • Transform inner story

and link it to vison- strategy

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Metaphors and crime

Catching and jailing criminals Crime as a beast Crime as a virus Education and ending poverty CRIME DATA PRESENTED REMAINS THE SAME WITH EACH METAPHOR

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Castle surrounded by hungry wolves

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Policing as a Roman coliseum

Police as “christians” Lions as criminals, getting faster and more dangerous Citizens watching

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International policing

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Super industry experts to educators and therapists

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From the “collection” to the ecosystem of alternatives

Keeper of the collection Innovator of the gardens

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Libraries in transition

Books loaned Visits, workshops, engagement Organizing and referencing texts Organizing and creating new spaces: physical, digitally amplified and augmented reality Expert Facilitation and co-curation The keeper of the collection Innovator of the gardens

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Leaking oil tanker to Optimus Prime

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Singapore – Ministry of Transport

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Oxfam Governance Asia 2030

Rule of the big man - feudal Fresh food market – pluralistic, inclusive, democratic

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Cinderella's Alchemy - Milojevic

Deconstruction: Passivity Reconstruction: Entrepreneurship and gender partnership,

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From the labyrinth to Icarus to Dadealus

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Error 7

  • Focus on strategy and forget –

lack of mindfulness - on culture and narrative

  • Engineer the future instead of

transforming “bob the builder.”

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8 Focus on the change agents

Jenny Brice Carriers of infection, change agents Resisters, quarantine Asleep, wake up Possible carriers, infect them

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Error 8 - overly focused on the resisters

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Learning 9 - Include everyone!

A world as access-able as a Para-Olympics village Redesign homes, schools, cities to assist inclusion Creating a culture of inclusion, integrating the

  • ther

Known just as “Julie”

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Error 9

  • Only include the experts

(delphi)

  • Or only include senior

managers and executives (strategy)

  • Board does not reflect

membership - AVA

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CLA - CANCER FUTURES

  • One out of two will have a

cancer incident by 2030

  • Chaotic and confused

pathways

  • Medical
  • Death sentence
  • Focus on prevention

and biomedical advances

  • One stop shop, clear

pathways for treatment

  • Person plus community

centred

  • As a way of life

TODAY PREFERRED FUTURE

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What works

  • 1. Challenge the used future
  • 2. Scan the environment for

emerging issues and weak signals

  • 3. Don’t wait until bad times
  • 4. Create alternative futures
  • 5. Find the macro-pattern
  • 6. Make the vision real
  • 7. Link story to strategy
  • 8. Focus on change agents
  • 9. Who is not in the room – learn

from all

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ANTICIPATORY ACTION LEARNING

  • BCC and DAFF - comprehensive
  • Mt Eliza executive education – CEO

leadership and foresight

  • Pearls of Policing – International

Policing

  • Malaysian higher education

leadership academy – strategy and cultural change

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Deep learning processes and the challenge of political change

  • BCC – vision plus scenarios plus

budget discipline plus courses and

  • workshop. Change in political

leadership but “city futures” meme spread to dozens of cities and thousands of Mayors.

  • DAFF – courses for scientists plus

workshops plus pre-border security. Scanning continues and influence at global level even with political change

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Multiple perspectives on industry issues - four days with follow up

  • Mt Eliza Executive Education
  • Futures of wineries, energy, marketing, health

insurance, justice, universities, airlines, airports

  • Each issue gains insight from others in different

industry areas

  • Expertise expands instead of narrowing the future
  • Action learning – insights plus presentation in

expertise areas and then practice in organization

  • Thirteen years
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Pearls of Policing

  • Deputy Commissioners +
  • Anticipatory Action Learning

projects

– Learning by doing – Questioning the future

  • Present to Commissioners
  • Strategy plus capacity
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AKEPT – malaysian higher education

  • 40 dvcs, deans and

professors each course

  • Present to each other
  • Filtered to council of VCs

and Minister

  • Strategy plus capacity –

tipping point and the new language of futures literacy

  • Year three
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Only those who are able to see the invisible are able to do the impossible

  • Dr. Bernard Lown, developer of the defibrillator and 1985 Nobel Prize

recipient for the international physicians for the prevention of nuclear war

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Additional information at

www.meta-future.org

http://mteliza.mbs.edu/fts