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New Horizons for Energy Efficiency Dan York, ACEEE SWEEP Annual Regional Workshop November 13, 2015 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy Non-profit research organization Founded in 1980 Now have 50 staff and $8

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New Horizons for Energy Efficiency

Dan York, ACEEE SWEEP Annual Regional Workshop

November 13, 2015

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American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

  • Non-profit research organization
  • Founded in 1980
  • Now have 50 staff and $8 million/year budget
  • Funding comes from foundations,

government agencies, contracts, conferences & corporate memberships

  • Publishes numerous reports on wide range of EE

topics, including annual State Energy Scorecard

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ACEEE New Horizons Study

  • 1. Appliances & standards

(RF, CW, CD)

  • 2. New construction

programs & codes

  • 3. Advanced lighting

design & controls

  • 4. Very efficient packaged

AC for residential & commercial

  • 5. Smart manufacturing

and buildings

  • 6. Strategic energy mgmnt

for large C&I

  • 7. Reduce key plug loads
  • 8. Real-time feedback &

advanced thermostats

  • 9. Whole building retrofits

10.Combined heat & power 11.Conservation voltage reduction 12.Advanced water heaters 13.Residential LEDs 14.Industrial fans, pumps & compressors

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SLIDE 4

Appliance Efficiency

  • Best refrigerators, clothes washers

and clothes dryers on the market can save 20-40% relative to typical new equipment

  • Would be useful to make this equipment

more mainstream before DOE standards for these products are revised

  • Energy Star Most Efficient for RF & CW
  • Energy Star & Emerging Tech for CD
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Residential LEDs

  • Very dynamic market: prices have fallen rapidly:

lamps available $3-8 per unit

  • LED technology offers numerous benefits
  • High quality lighting
  • Well suited to numerous applications
  • Long lived
  • Current market share small, but rapid growth

expected: DOE projects 84% by 2030

  • Programs are rapidly shifting incentives and targeted

products from CFLs to LEDs

  • AZ utilities have made this shift and report significant

success with sales of LED products

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Real-Time Energy Use Feedback and Behavioral Response

  • OPower averaging about 2% electric savings
  • In-home displays saving from 0-19%, with

average so far of ~4%

  • Much of the savings comes from a limited number
  • f “cyber-sensitive” customers
  • Amount of savings correlates to intensity of

feedback

  • Savings persist with some decline
  • Dynamic pricing can boost results
  • Being offered by APS and SRP
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Smart Thermostats: Preliminary Results

Study Percent Savings Heating Cooling Space Cond. All Elec. Peak Elec. ETO heat pumps 12% 4.7% winter Cadmus/Honeywell (all U.S.) 7.8 16.5% 9.1% Vectran 12.5 13.9 Nest/My Energy 9.6 17.5 SMUD 1.6-3.3% 5-6% std rate; 28-37% TOU/CPP Vassar (S. Calif) 6 summer SIMPLE AVERAGE 10.5% 16.0%

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Residential AC & Heat Pumps

Opportunities:

  • Higher efficiency: SEER 13->15 in N,

14->17 in S; HSPF 8.2 -> 9.6 (0.8%, ¾ AC)

  • Quality installation (0.7%)
  • Convert electric furnaces to HP (0.9%)
  • Install ductless HP in homes

with electric baseboard (0.3%)

(%) are %of US electric sales

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Heat Pump Water Heaters

  • Savings average ~42%, higher in warm

climates

  • CSE ~$0.08/kWh overall but ~$0.06 for

households of 3 or more

  • Effective strategies include

substantial upstream incentives

  • r 2 part incentives (mostly to

distributor but a portion to homeowner so can track where unit installed)

Northern Climate specification

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Residential Retrofits

  • Home performance with Energy Star

averages 23-32% of whole house energy use, depending on region

  • Leading programs reaching 0.5-2% of

households each year

  • CSE averages ~$0.077/kWh; better

integrating with other planning improvements can lower this some

  • Other benefits (comfort, health, safety, ease
  • f maintenance) very important
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New Construction: Making Ultra- Efficient Buildings Common

  • Can promote beyond-code levels of efficiency

and take other steps to lay foundation for code upgrades to these levels of performance

  • Residential – DOE ZER home
  • Commercial – NBI tiers 3 and 4
  • Model programs are NYSERDA for residential

and ETO for commercial

Residential

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Miscellaneous Energy Loads

iMac ME086 24 kWh/yr

Energy per unit (kWh) Energy savings Incremental cost ($/unit) Average measure life (years) Cost of saved energy ($/kWh) Current With measure Energy savings Current Long- term Current Long- term Computers 120 27 92 77% 30 2 5 0.075 0.005 Televisions 166 53 114 69% 81 41 10 0.092 0.046 Ceiling fans 152 24 128 84% 700 140 14 0.11 0.022 Set-top boxes 142 65 77 54% NA 5 Medical imaging equipment 93,000 55,800 37,200 40% NA 20 NA NA Average 65% 0.093 0.024

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Advanced Lighting Design

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Advanced Commercial Rooftop Units

  • Rooftop systems responsible for nearly half of

commercial cooling in U.S.

  • Past focus has been on performance on hot days

(EER) but recently focus shifting to seasonal performance (IEER)

  • Current federal standard ~IEER 11 but moving to 12+

and 14+ in 2018 & 2023

  • DOE Rooftop Challenge for IEER >18
  • Expensive now but with promotion & scale, costs

should come down

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SLIDE 15
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Smart Commercial Buildings

  • Use data and sensors to identify

problems, then solve them

  • NRDC study of 3 ~Energy Star offices

using OnSite achieved 13% average

  • savings. Other vendors report similar

results

Square 2012 Feet Occupancy 2011 2012 % $ 1707 109,926 302 1,965,135 1,516,274 23% 58,352 $ 1828 332,928 928 5,590,937 5,227,183 7% 47,288 $ 1909 239,128 462 5,197,305 4,327,589 17% 113,063 $ Total 12,753,377 11,071,046 13.2% 218,703 $ KWH Used Study Period Savings

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Comprehensive Commercial Retrofits

38% energy savings

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C&I Strategic Energy Management

  • BPA, ETO, NEEA, WI, Xcel and Effic.

Nova Scotia have been leaders

  • ~5-10% average savings per facility
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Energy Performance Labels for C&I Equipment

  • Labels now being developed for

extended motor products – fans, pumps, air compressors

  • More efficient extended products can

save 15-35% via system optimization

Extended product

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Smart Manufacturing

  • Through continuous monitoring and
  • ptimization can save 15% or more
  • Some capital costs but also on-going
  • perations costs
  • Typically done through custom incentive

programs but could use new models paying for actual savings yearly

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Conservation Voltage Reduction

Source: PNNL 2010 Source: EPRI 2012

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Combined Heat & Power

  • Higher efficiency than power plants

when have uses for heat

  • Factories
  • Large institutions
  • Lower natural gas prices make more

attractive

  • Interest in critical facilities post-Sandy
  • Some utilities now encouraging and

achieving large savings

  • Perhaps utilities could own, manage and

rate-base

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Adding Things Up: Total Savings Potential

  • Savings from all measures in study = 22%

(mid-range) of projected electricity use in 2030 (low=15%; high=31%)

  • No single dominant measure; range of

individual measure savings: 0.5% to 3.4% savings (mean=1.1%)

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Top Ten Measures by Savings Potential

Large reductions in miscellaneous plug loads 3.4% Conservation voltage reduction 2.1% New construction programs 1.9% Comprehensive commercial retrofits 1.7% Smart manufacturing 1.6% High efficiency residential air conditioners and heat pumps 1.5% Combined heat and power systems 1.3% Advanced commercial lighting design and controls 1.3% High efficiency heat pumps replacing electric resistance furnaces 1.2% Smart commercial buildings 1.2%

Savings are percentage of total electricity demand in 2030 (above values are from medium scenario in ACEEE analysis)

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Cost Effectiveness

  • Most of measures in our study yield savings at 7.5

cents/kWh or less (TRC perspective; = cost/kWh of a new combined cycle plant per EIA)

  • A few of them are a little higher
  • These include high efficiency appliances, residential

feedback, residential retrofits, heat pump water heaters, some misc. plug loads, commercial roof-top A/C and advanced commercial lighting.

  • Expect costs to decline – programs can encourage this
  • In near-term may need to focus some on regions or

customers where cost-effective

  • Implement pilot programs/projects to get experience
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The Way Forward

  • Numerous transformations underway:
  • Technological innovation
  • Systems solution
  • Behavior change
  • Intelligent efficiency:
  • Smart, interconnected, communicating

devices

  • Big data: new capabilities for energy

management

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Next Steps

  • Research and demonstrate these

emerging technologies and practices

  • Research and catalyze markets
  • Expand options within existing programs to

include new technologies and measures

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Next Steps (continued)

  • Launch pilot programs to test new program

models and to improve cost-effectiveness

  • Integrate and target behavioral change
  • Target systems approaches
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Full report

New Horizons for Energy Efficiency: Major Opportunities to Reach Higher Electricity Savings by 2030

Dan York, Steven Nadel, Ethan Rogers, Rachel Cluett, Sameer Kwatra, Harvey Sachs, Jennifer Amann, and Meegan Kelly September 15, 2015 Research Report U1507 http://aceee.org/research-report/u1507

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Contact Information Dan York dwyork@aceee.org 608-243-1123