The Australian Renewable Energy Revolution Professor Ken Baldwin - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
the australian renewable
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

The Australian Renewable Energy Revolution Professor Ken Baldwin - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 04, 2023 228 likes •481 views

The Australian Renewable Energy Revolution Professor Ken Baldwin Director, ANU Energy Change Institute November, 2019 ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au 1 ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au ANU Energy Change Institute

slide-1
SLIDE 1

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

1

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

The Australian Renewable Energy Revolution

November, 2019

Professor Ken Baldwin Director, ANU Energy Change Institute

slide-2
SLIDE 2

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

2

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

Human Sciences:

  • Energy Economics and Policy
  • Energy Efficiency
  • Energy and Security
  • Energy for Development
  • Energy-Water Nexus
  • Energy Regulation and Governance
  • Energy Sociology and Risk
  • Hydrogen Economy
  • Sustainable Transport

ANU Energy Change Institute

Technology and Policy neutral

A wide spectrum of Energy research: Technologies:

  • Artificial Photosynthesis
  • Energy Storage and Recovery
  • Enhanced Oil and Gas/ CCS
  • Fusion Power
  • Nuclear Science
  • Renewable Fuels
  • Smart Grid
  • Solar PV
  • Solar Thermal
  • Wind Energy

>$100M in facilities and >300 researchers

slide-3
SLIDE 3

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

3 3

Australia’s Paris commitment:

  • 26 – 28%

reduction by 2030 in GHG emissions based on 2005 levels

The climate change imperative

539

98

}

slide-4
SLIDE 4

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

4 4

Australia’s GHG emissions

IF the electricity sector provides the best opportunity to make the most rapid impact, then this requires >>28% GHG emissions reductions by 2030 given that the other sectors are harder to address. RE RE RE RE RE

slide-5
SLIDE 5

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

5 5

Australia is moving in the wrong direction …..

slide-6
SLIDE 6

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

6 6

….even though our per capita/per GDP isn’t

slide-7
SLIDE 7

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

7 7

Agriculture emissions are constant

slide-8
SLIDE 8

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

8 8 Australia has an abundance of energy of all types (except oil)

Australia is an energy powerhouse

slide-9
SLIDE 9

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

9

Electricity for all of Australia and the world

Australia as a RE powerhouse

slide-10
SLIDE 10

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

10 10

Renewable Energy Pipeline

Large-scale renewable energy capacity installation rate: currently ~ 4.0 GW p.a. Small-scale renewable energy capacity installation rate: currently ~ 2.4 GW p.a.

~6.4 GW p.a.

}

Source: Clean Energy Regulator

slide-11
SLIDE 11

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

11 11

Australia is a RE powerhouse

Australia leads the world with 250W per capita p.a. wind and solar installation rate, and the highest penetration of rooftop solar (24%)

Source: the International Renewable Energy Agency

slide-12
SLIDE 12

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

12

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

Renewable / fossil replacement rate

12

slide-13
SLIDE 13

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

13

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

If industry is allowed to continue installing renewables at the current rate then Australia will:

  • Reach the 2020 Renewable Energy Target in 2019 - Sept. !

(and probably the old pre-Abbott RET in 2020)

  • Reduce electricity sector emissions by 26% by 2021*
  • Attain our 26% Paris goals for the entire economy by 2025
  • Reach 50% renewable electricity by 2024
  • Approach 100% renewable electricity in the early 2030’s

Projections if industry installation continues

13 * Assuming GHG emissions and electricity demand remain constant

slide-14
SLIDE 14

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

14

Energy growth shifts to Asia

Primary energy demand, 2035 (Mtoe) China is the main driver of increasing energy demand in the current decade, but India takes over in the 2020s as the principal source of growth

4%

65%

10% 8% 8% 5%

OECD Non-OECD Asia Middle East Africa Latin America Eurasia

Share of global growth 2012-2035

480 Brazil 1 540 India 1 000 Southeast Asia 4 060 China 1 030 Africa 2 240 United States 440 Japan 1 710 Europe 1 370 Eurasia 1 050 Middle East Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2013

slide-15
SLIDE 15

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

15

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

Australia’s current (carbon-based) energy trade

ECI’s $10m ANU Grand Challenge: To future-proof Australia’s energy exports – based on Renewable Energy

slide-16
SLIDE 16

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

16

ANU $10m Grand Challenge

Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific

20x domestic 260 TWh/y !!

slide-17
SLIDE 17

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

17

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

ANU Energy Change Institute

Thank you!

slide-18
SLIDE 18

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

18

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

Technology learning rate: solar PV

Time

Source: Fraunhofer Institute 2018 PV Report

1/100th price per module!

Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)

  • f 33% for the last

30+ years!

slide-19
SLIDE 19

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

19

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

Technology learning rate: wind

Currently 5 MW

  • 100x capacity

Source: energytransition.org

slide-20
SLIDE 20

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

20

Electricity demand and sources

Source: Pitt and Sherry, October 2016 carbon tax removed

slide-21
SLIDE 21

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

21

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

  • The higher the penetration (>50 %), the

higher the cost to cover intermittency:

  • Overbuild supply
  • Build additional storage capability
  • Build additional network infrastructure
  • Will this provide the same level of reliability
  • f supply?
  • Will this provide the same level of security

e.g. increasing extreme weather events?

How high can renewables go?

Adds 50% to LCOE but still cheaper than coal

}

Yes – perhaps better Maybe

slide-22
SLIDE 22

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

22

  • Rapid decarbonisation of the energy sector

– solar, wind, hydro, nuclear (fusion?)

  • Increasing availability of domestic energy

sources results in greater energy security

  • More disseminated generation, storage and

demand response (the ‘internet’ of energy)

  • Increased vulnerability to cyber threats

World-wide trends in energy

slide-23
SLIDE 23

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

23

Australia needs to:

  • address continuing government policy uncertainty

(which threatens and inflates new investment) by:

➢ placing an economy-wide price on carbon ➢ creating market incentives for more transmission and storage

  • put all options on the table - including nuclear
  • educate NIMBYism – community acceptance
  • address the threat to the electricity grid model and the

accompanying social equity issues

23

Elephants in the room

slide-24
SLIDE 24

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

24

ANU Energy Change Institute energy.anu.edu.au

Energy generation sources

Solar

Direct Indirect

Global

Tidal Geothermal

Fossil

Oil Coal Gas

Photovoltaics Solar heat Thermal electric Thermochemical Biomass Wave Wind Hydro

Nuclear

Fission Fusion