Developing the right genetic stock for a different future OXFORD FARMING CONFERENCE 2013 “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 0
Livestock agriculture – what are the right genetics for the future? Robert Bakewell 1725 -1795 William Thomson, 1st Baron Kelvin, 1824-1907 “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 1
World Population Growth Through History 12 Billions 11 2100 Its is predicted that by 2050 the 10 worlds population will need 100% 9 Modern more food and according to the UN Age FAO 70% of it must come from Old 8 Iron Middle Bronze Stone efficiency enhancing technology New Stone Age Age Ages Age Age 7 6 Future 2000 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1900 1 1800 — Black Death The Plague 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (2009). “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ”
Will livestock Agriculture have a future? V “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 3
Dietary Choices: < $ 2 / day: mostly rice and grains $2 - $9 / day : more diet diversity By 2050 world population will grow to 9.1 billion > $ 9 / day: packaged, luxury food per income capita income will rise by 150% and global consumption of meat milk and eggs will “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” double ( FAO 2006)
How much can genetic improvement contribute? 12 Crop Yields 10 8 Tonnes/hectare 6 UK Wheat US Corn 4 Approximately 50% of improvement has 2 come from plant breeding 0 5 “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ”
How much can genetic improvement contribute? 10000 Milk Yields 9000 8000 7000 6000 Kg/head 5000 UK US 4000 3000 Approximately 50% 2000 of improvement has come from animal 1000 breeding 0 6 “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ”
UK pig performance 1962 2009 71% more pigs 38% less feed 14 pigs/year 23 pigs/year 39% more lean 50% less manure per kg of lean 410 kg of 34 kg of lean 273 kg of 45 kg of lean Approximately 60% of feed each each pig feed each each pig improvement has come from genetic pig pig improvement “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ”
How much can genetic improvement contribute? 1962 2009 “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ”
How much can genetic improvement contribute? 40 years genetic selection “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ”
Genetic selection has become more sophisticated over time 1970’s ICC’s for Production 5 Traits Daughter averages for type 1980’s PTA’s for Production PTA’s For Type 16 Linear traits 1990’s PTA’s for Production PTA’s For Type Type Merit plus four composites 16 Linear traits Milking speed, Temperament, locomotion BCS Lifespan SCC’s 2000’s PTA’s for Production PTA’s For Type Type Merit plus four composites 16 Linear traits Milking speed, Temperament, locomotion BCS Fertility Index, Persistency Lifespan SCC’s 36 Traits “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ”
Relative weights on selection have changed over time Reasons for culling dairy cows Relative importance of traits in the Profitable Lifetime Index Increasing emphasis being placed On traits which can Infertility Udder 5.6% Locomotion 4.1% 35% help cut the costs Mastitis £PIN 45.2% SCC 5.5% Of production. 28% a) mi lk 24.1% b) fat 27.5%, Longevity c) prot. 48.5% Fertility 18.5% Fertility & Health Production Lameness Other Disease 16% 11% 5% 5% Lifespan 21.1% Customer emphasis has moved away from heavy selection Source: Milk Council 2003. Dairy Report. for production to reducing the costs of production “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ”
What about the future ? • Genetics have contributed approximately 50% of the phenotypic improvement we have seen over the last 50 years • What will be required in the future “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 12
Changing environment Soaring energy and Less land available as 6.00 protein feed costs for livestock 5.00 agriculture 4.00 3.00 “basically we need to 2.00 1.00 produce more from less - $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 and genetic improvement ERS CBOT Water resources will become an increasing is going to be key to this” Larger units with less challenge labour per livestock unit Lower greenhouse gas emissions “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 13
There is a big variation between species in use of improved genetics 715 M tonnes (2010) 100% = 109 65 ~30-40% Remaining market ~60-70% ~93-95% Other genetically improved material 1 ~60-70% ~30-40% Milk Pork Beef Value of Genetics 1 1.3 1.5 Gross Profit (GBP bn) “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 14
Opportunities in undeveloped species Atlantic Salmon Sea Trout Pacific Salmon Wild fish stocks are declining so over 50% of fish consumed is now farmed but less than 10% Buffalos produce 20% of all the comes from genetically improved milk produced globally and 50% strains. of all milk in India . High reproductive rate in fish The average Indian buffalo Tilapia gives big potential for improved produces 1000kg milk per year efficiency “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 15
Opportunities in under developed species Sheep breeding has been limited genetic progress, most improvements to data have been through breed substitution and cross breeding Lack of data and artificial breeding is limiting dissemination of better genetics Beef breeding has made some progress, but nothing close to theoretical rates of gain. More data available but limited artificial breeding is limiting dissemination of better genetics “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 16
Genomic selection gives a big opportunity for the future genetic progress • Cattle genome first sequenced in 2004 – 30 chromosome pairs (including X,Y) – 3 billion letters from each parent • Typically evaluate 3000 – 800K SNP’s (Single Nucleotide Polymorphism) • DNA samples can be taken from very young animals and a genomic evaluation run based of an animals DNA rather than pedigree and performance data “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 17
Dairy Genomic Evaluations in North America Released publicly in 2009 Rapid adoption into breeding programs 180,000 Total Females 160,000 Young Females Number Genotyped, cumulative Total Males 140,000 Young Males 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 USDA-AIPL, 2012 40,000 20,000 >68,000 males 0 >230,000 both Jul-09 Jan-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 May-13 sexes Genomic Evaluation, mo-yr “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ”
Pursuit of Genetic Progress is changing as a result of genomic evaluations Rate of genetic progress = Rate of genetic progress = Genetic variation Genetic variation x Intensity of selection x Intensity of selection x Accuracy of selection x Accuracy of selection ÷ Generation interval ÷ Generation interval Genomic - Trait Traditional Genomic Traditional* Protein Yield 35 75 +40 Productive Life, mo. 26 72 +46 Reliability of PTA’s Somatic Cell Score 30 76 +45 increased significantly Daughter Pregnancy Rate, % 26 71 +45 for young animals Type Final Score 32 75 +42 Calving Ease 33 57 +24 *Based on results from 44,950 Holstein young bulls “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 19
Genomic evaluations will allow us to speed up genetic progress Genomic selection is being applied to many species Dairy Cattle, Beef, Pigs, Poultry Will accelerate genetic progress but still requires lots of phenotypic data to build and validate evaluations Will allow greater selection for lower heritability traits and evolution of new traits Production, fertility, growth, immunity, etc. Feed Efficiency “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 20
12 Billions 11 2100 10 9 Modern Age Old 8 Iron Middle Bronze Stone New Stone Age Age Ages Age Age 7 Future 6 2000 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1900 1 1800 — Black Death The Plague 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (2009). WILL IT BE ENOUGH, OR SHOULD WE ADOPT NEWER TECHNOLOGY? “ Pioneering animal genetic improvement to help nourish the world ” 21
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