Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster 21 st January, 2015 Juba - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

South Sudan Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster 21 st January, 2015 Juba SOUTH SUDAN

Index • Logistic cluster plan for year 2015 (support and procedures) • UNDP presentation on economic analysis • Livestock working group update • Market prices Analysis by WFP AOB - Issue of Minkaman (Strategy for 2015) - 2015 plans need to be submitted ASAP against 3W format SOUTH SUDAN

Logistics Cluster South Sudan Current Ops v SOUTH SUDAN

Logistics Cluster South Sudan Pre-po v • http://www.logcluster.org/ops/ssd11a • Pre-po – items to be used in the future months especially rainy season that will be transported in the dry season. In reality the LC does not need a real differentiation as to what cargo is planned monthly be it prepo or immediate use, it is the mt, vol and location we need. • 4 Major hubs (dispatching wet season) are Bentiu – will expand storage • • Rumbek – will expand storage and provide list of destinations served Bor – will expand storage and provide list of destinations served, will • also be barge loading point Malakal – Expand storage if required and will also serve northern • Jonglei, air asset deployed based on security clearances. SOUTH SUDAN

Logistics Cluster South Sudan Pre-po v Information needed re the new Pipeline format, 2 months advanced planning that will be circulated asap post this meeting. The pipeline will drive the Logistics response in assets and MSU sites. This is now mandatory, gaps in submissions or incorrect figures will result in insufficient support or delays in scale up. Monthly task – CC best placed to drive this?? Agreed?? Pipeline is now the driving document for the LC. We will also include a contingency figure for emergencies. SOUTH SUDAN

Logistics Cluster South Sudan Pre-po v Cost Key Recovery LC Pipeline - February 2015 Juaibor Kech Kon Kodok Maban Mading Maiwut Mandeng Malakal Mathiang Melut Pagak Paloich Renk Riang Ulang Total MULTIPLE SECTORS 0 0 WASH 0 0 SHELTER 0 0 FSL 0 0 Nutrition 0 0 Health 0 0 Education 0 0 OTHER 0 0 Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Grand Total 0 SOUTH SUDAN

Logistics Cluster South Sudan Operational points v • Rubkhona airstrip is still under discussion re upgrade, LC is advocating for funding with donors. • Pre-po to Bentiu in dry season is a must to stock up allowing LC to top-up in rainy season only • Transportation in the dry season is organisations responsibility, however LC can support in coordination and also MSUs required however this needs to be done in advance. • Some air assets will remain however this is for hard to reach areas only, we plan to keep all air assets for the next month and review on a regular basis post this • Reality is funding will be less this year, while I will not stop operations due to funds, if we have to go Cost recovery it will be painful for all, so pre-po is the way to limit this occurring, obviously advocacy with donors will be ongoing. SOUTH SUDAN

Logistics Cluster South Sudan 2015 operations v SOUTH SUDAN

Critical access v SOUTH SUDAN

Logistics Cluster South Sudan Pre-po points v SOUTH SUDAN

Questions? SOUTH SUDAN

South Sudan Economic Situation: Some Aspects of Importance for the Humanitarian Community Balázs Horváth and Frederick Mugisha UNDP South Sudan SOUTH SUDAN

Outline 1. Plummeting Oil Revenues Severely Constrain Fiscal Space 2. Budgetary Spending Skewed Away from Public Services 3. Complementary Development actions can help preclude recurrent humanitarian crises 4. Humanitarian activities subjected to multiple “taxes”, most notably stemming from dual exchange rate system 5. Conflict reverses downward trend in consumer prices; price developments reflect highly fragmented markets 6. A Revenue Authority imposing the monopoly of revenue collection could greatly benefit the humanitarian community. SOUTH SUDAN

Plummeting Oil Revenues Severely Constrain Fiscal Space • Oil Revenues Falling – production, prices and fees Figure 1: Monthly Oil Revenue Estimates • 98% of budget revenue is oil-related (US$): impact of low production, oil prices, & • Volume of oil production: 160,000 barrels/day vs transit fees 900 Millions 260,000 planned 789 800 • Crude prices fell precipitously: at US$49.46 vs 700 US$101.2 budgeted 600 • Transit fees fixed per barrel irrespective of price, 486 500 at US$26 400 • Get 13.2% of what was hoped at the budget • Expenditure on basic services severely 300 237 time constrained; salaries paid 200 113 • Earlier forward sales of oil further reduce • With dwindling revenues, deficit is soaring 100 revenues to a trickle • Financed through Central Bank borrowing, since 0 there are: • No effectively usable foreign exchange reserves left • Limited external borrowing opportunities. Humanitarian partners called upon to continue to fill the gap  continued efforts needed beyond IDPs. Source : Own computation based on Crude Oil (Brent) prices, oil agreements, & budget. SOUTH SUDAN

Budgetary Spending Skewed Away from Public Services • Highly distorted budgetary expenditure structure Figure 2: Percent share in actual budget • Security has by far the largest share expenditure 45 • Current actual expenditure is further 40 tilted to security Securi 35 ty 30 • War effort continues, crowding out social spending and exacerbating 25 unsustainable spending 20 Public Infrastruct 15 Administration ure 10 Humanitarian fundraising may enter a more Educati difficult phase as South Sudan slips off the 5 on Health radar screen with protracted conflict - Source : own computation based on Gov’t outturns - Ministry of Finance SOUTH SUDAN

Complementary Development actions can help preclude recurrent humanitarian crises • Livelihoods of displaced and their host communities in a protracted conflict • Figure 3: IDPs and displacement sites Of 1.4m displaced in 181 sites, 81% in 3 conflict states in 103 sites. 50 • Displaced and their host communities’ 43 livelihoods will continue to suffer, with a risk of recurrent humanitarian crises. 40 36 34 33 30 Percent of Given protracted conflict, falling oil revenues, Internally lack of infrastructure, insecurity: Displaced Persons livelihoods, rule of law and other development Number of 20 24 20 Displacement 18 action is called for. Sites 16 15 10 How? 10 • existing cluster system to devise solutions with 5 8 7 2 strategic, long term content; 5 1 1 0 0 3 • strategic priorities: recovery, community - resilience, prepare for IDP return, and capacity to deliver basic services; • dev’t agencies and NGOs need to coordinate Source : Own computation based on humanitarian data. SOUTH SUDAN and assist.

Humanitarian Activities subjected to multiple “taxes” • Roadblocks; costs arising from access constraints; “tax” due to dual exchange rate Figure 4: (a) US$-SSP Official Figure 4: (b) Percent “tax” due to parallel exchange rate exchange rate 8.0 140 120 100 “tax” paid due to 6.0 parallel exchange Parallel Exchange 80 rate Rate 60 4.0 40 20 Official Exchange 2.0 rate 0 20122013 2014 2015 Source : National Bureau of 0.0 Statistics 2012 2013 2014 2015 • The SSP continues to depreciate Makes local With conversion at official, against the US$ and other sourcing less and expenditure at parallel currencies competitive, exchange rate, the cost to • Conversion at official exchange further distorts deliver could well increase. rate imposes an increasing “tax” the local SOUTH SUDAN on humanitarian spending. market.

Conflict reverses downward trend in prices; fragmented markets • Domestic Commodity Prices increase outside Juba • Domestic commodity prices Figure 5: Average price levels for 20 increase outside Juba, no data commodities (Index = 100 on 31 Dec for Malakal 2012) • Import competition keeps 140 commodity prices stable in Juba despite SSP depreciation W • au Conflict, border closure with 120 Malak al Sudan, lack of reliable supply routes raise commodity prices in Price rises undermine mechanisms 100 Rumbek, Wau, and likely Jub that deliver humanitarian assistance a Malakal through the local market. Rumb ek 80 The cost of delivering humanitarian assistance could 60 well increase. SOUTH SUDAN Source : National Bureau of Statistics

A Revenue Authority imposing the monopoly of revenue collection could greatly benefit the Humanitarian Community • The 2013 South Sudan Revenue Holds the promise of harmonizing tax Authority Bill aimed for establishing a collection, making customs clearance semi-independent revenue authority faster, and curtailing illegal forms of with a separate corporate identity — as revenue collection for private gain; • in East Africa and elsewhere. Burning need for non-oil revenues elevates importance • But likely to take time: • Uniform rules across States to be negotiated; • Building institutional capacity will All in all: change for Humanitarian take time, especially at subnational Community in actual operating level. environment unlikely from fiscal side in 2015. SOUTH SUDAN

Thank You for Your Attention Balazs Horvath <balazs.horvath@undp.org> Frederick Mugisha <frederick.mugisha@undp.org> +211 954 554 751 SOUTH SUDAN