Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster 21 st January, 2015 Juba - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SOUTH SUDAN

South Sudan Food Security and Livelihoods Cluster

21st January, 2015 Juba

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Index

• Logistic cluster plan for year 2015 (support and

procedures)

• UNDP presentation on economic analysis
• Livestock working group update
• Market prices Analysis by WFP

AOB

• Issue of Minkaman (Strategy for 2015)
• 2015 plans need to be submitted ASAP against 3W

format

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Logistics Cluster South Sudan Current Ops

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• http://www.logcluster.org/ops/ssd11a
• Pre-po – items to be used in the future months especially rainy

season that will be transported in the dry season. In reality the LC does not need a real differentiation as to what cargo is planned monthly be it prepo or immediate use, it is the mt, vol and location we need.

• 4 Major hubs (dispatching wet season) are
• Bentiu – will expand storage
• Rumbek – will expand storage and provide list of destinations served
• Bor – will expand storage and provide list of destinations served, will

also be barge loading point

• Malakal – Expand storage if required and will also serve northern

Jonglei, air asset deployed based on security clearances.

Logistics Cluster South Sudan Pre-po

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Information needed re the new Pipeline format, 2 months advanced planning that will be circulated asap post this meeting. The pipeline will drive the Logistics response in assets and MSU sites. This is now mandatory, gaps in submissions or incorrect figures will result in insufficient support or delays in scale up. Monthly task – CC best placed to drive this?? Agreed?? Pipeline is now the driving document for the LC. We will also include a contingency figure for emergencies. Logistics Cluster South Sudan Pre-po

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Key

Cost Recovery Juaibor Kech Kon Kodok Maban Mading Maiwut Mandeng Malakal Mathiang Melut Pagak Paloich Renk Riang Ulang Total

MULTIPLE SECTORS WASH SHELTER FSL Nutrition Health Education OTHER Totals Grand Total

LC Pipeline - February 2015

Logistics Cluster South Sudan Pre-po

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• Rubkhona airstrip is still under discussion re upgrade, LC is

advocating for funding with donors.

• Pre-po to Bentiu in dry season is a must to stock up allowing

LC to top-up in rainy season only

• Transportation in the dry season is organisations responsibility,

however LC can support in coordination and also MSUs required however this needs to be done in advance.

• Some air assets will remain however this is for hard to reach

areas only, we plan to keep all air assets for the next month and review on a regular basis post this

• Reality is funding will be less this year, while I will not stop
• perations due to funds, if we have to go Cost recovery it will

be painful for all, so pre-po is the way to limit this occurring,

• bviously advocacy with donors will be ongoing.

Logistics Cluster South Sudan Operational points

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Logistics Cluster South Sudan 2015 operations

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Critical access

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Logistics Cluster South Sudan Pre-po points

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Questions?

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South Sudan Economic Situation:

Some Aspects of Importance for the Humanitarian Community

Balázs Horváth and Frederick Mugisha UNDP South Sudan

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Outline

1. Plummeting Oil Revenues Severely Constrain Fiscal Space 2. Budgetary Spending Skewed Away from Public Services 3. Complementary Development actions can help preclude recurrent humanitarian crises 4. Humanitarian activities subjected to multiple “taxes”, most notably stemming from dual exchange rate system 5. Conflict reverses downward trend in consumer prices; price developments reflect highly fragmented markets 6. A Revenue Authority imposing the monopoly of revenue collection could greatly benefit the humanitarian community.

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Plummeting Oil Revenues Severely Constrain Fiscal Space

• Oil Revenues Falling – production, prices

and fees

• 98% of budget revenue is oil-related
• Volume of oil production: 160,000 barrels/day vs

260,000 planned

• Crude prices fell precipitously: at US$49.46 vs

US$101.2 budgeted

• Transit fees fixed per barrel irrespective of price,

at US$26

• Get 13.2% of what was hoped at the budget

time

• Earlier forward sales of oil further reduce

revenues to a trickle

• Expenditure on basic services severely

constrained; salaries paid

• With dwindling revenues, deficit is soaring
• Financed through Central Bank borrowing, since

there are:

• No effectively usable foreign exchange

reserves left

• Limited external borrowing opportunities.

Humanitarian partners called upon to continue to fill the gap  continued efforts needed beyond IDPs.

Source: Own computation based on Crude Oil (Brent) prices, oil agreements, & budget.

Figure 1: Monthly Oil Revenue Estimates (US$): impact of low production, oil prices, & transit fees

789 486 237 113 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Millions

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Budgetary Spending Skewed Away from Public Services

Figure 2: Percent share in actual budget expenditure

• Security has by far the largest share
• Current actual expenditure is further

tilted to security

• War effort continues, crowding out

social spending and exacerbating unsustainable spending Humanitarian fundraising may enter a more difficult phase as South Sudan slips off the radar screen with protracted conflict

• 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Source: own computation based on Gov’t outturns - Ministry of Finance

Securi ty Public Administration Infrastruct ure Educati

• n

Health

• Highly distorted budgetary expenditure

structure

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Complementary Development actions can help preclude recurrent humanitarian crises

• Livelihoods of displaced and their host communities in a

protracted conflict

• Of 1.4m displaced in 181 sites, 81% in 3

conflict states in 103 sites.

• Displaced and their host communities’

livelihoods will continue to suffer, with a risk of recurrent humanitarian crises. Given protracted conflict, falling oil revenues, lack of infrastructure, insecurity: livelihoods, rule of law and other development action is called for. How?

• existing cluster system to devise solutions with

strategic, long term content;

• strategic priorities: recovery, community

resilience, prepare for IDP return, and capacity to deliver basic services;

• dev’t agencies and NGOs need to coordinate

and assist.

Source: Own computation based on humanitarian data.

Figure 3: IDPs and displacement sites

1 1 2 5 10 18 20 43 5 8 3 15 7 16 24 34 33 36

• 10

20 30 40 50 Percent of Internally Displaced Persons Number of Displacement Sites

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Humanitarian Activities subjected to multiple “taxes”

• Roadblocks; costs arising from access constraints; “tax” due

to dual exchange rate

• The SSP continues to depreciate

against the US$ and other currencies

• Conversion at official exchange

rate imposes an increasing “tax”

• n humanitarian spending.

Makes local sourcing less competitive, further distorts the local market. With conversion at official, and expenditure at parallel exchange rate, the cost to deliver could well increase.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

“tax” paid due to parallel exchange rate Figure 4: (a) US$-SSP Official exchange rate Official Exchange rate Parallel Exchange Rate Figure 4: (b) Percent “tax” due to parallel exchange rate

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2012 2013 2014 2015

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20122013 2014 2015

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Conflict reverses downward trend in prices; fragmented markets

• Domestic Commodity Prices increase outside

Juba

• Domestic commodity prices

increase outside Juba, no data for Malakal

• Import competition keeps

commodity prices stable in Juba despite SSP depreciation

• Conflict, border closure with

Sudan, lack of reliable supply routes raise commodity prices in Rumbek, Wau, and likely Malakal Price rises undermine mechanisms that deliver humanitarian assistance through the local market. The cost of delivering humanitarian assistance could well increase.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics 60 80 100 120 140

Malak al W au Jub a Rumb ek Figure 5: Average price levels for 20 commodities (Index = 100 on 31 Dec 2012)

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A Revenue Authority imposing the monopoly of revenue collection could greatly benefit the Humanitarian Community

The 2013 South Sudan Revenue Authority Bill aimed for establishing a semi-independent revenue authority with a separate corporate identity—as in East Africa and elsewhere. All in all: change for Humanitarian Community in actual operating environment unlikely from fiscal side in 2015.

• Holds the promise of harmonizing tax

collection, making customs clearance faster, and curtailing illegal forms of revenue collection for private gain;

• Burning need for non-oil revenues

elevates importance

• But likely to take time:
• Uniform rules across States to be

negotiated;

• Building institutional capacity will

take time, especially at subnational level.

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Thank You for Your Attention

Balazs Horvath <balazs.horvath@undp.org> Frederick Mugisha <frederick.mugisha@undp.org> +211 954 554 751

Vétérinaires Sans Frontières Suisse

Turkei Cattle Disease Outbreak Investigation Report

A Joint UN-FAO/VSF Suisse Outbreak investigation report 10th-17th Dec, 2014 By: Douglas Machuchu, Elias Beneth and Simon Mabor

Vétérinaires Sans Frontières Suisse

Preview

1. Background

• IRNA report
• Area
• 2. Mission goal
• Objectives
• ToR /Outputs
• 3. Methodology
• Team
• Data collection methods
• 4. Findings
• Results
• Constraints
• 5. Conclusion
• 6. Recommendations

Vétérinaires Sans Frontières Suisse

Background

• An inter- agency team mission to Turkei, Wangbor payam,

Mayom County of Unity State, between 17-18th November, 2014, yielded an Initial Rapid Needs Assessment (IRNA) report indicating:

• “high number of livestock deaths from a locally unknown cattle

disease”

• “need for an urgent livestock intervention”
• An outbreak report from local community livestock personnel

indicated same needs.

• The area of Turkei falls under the SPLM –io held area.
• Insecurity in Mayom is a major challenge to services and goods

delivery, even to local community animal health workers, especially from the Bentiu hub.

• Roads are impassable, with a possible danger of landmines

Vétérinaires Sans Frontières Suisse

Mission goal

Objectives

• i. To investigate the reported unknown cattle disease outbreak
• ii. To assess general livestock condition and animal health service

access in the area

ToR/Outputs

1. Mobilization of available CBAHWs in Turkei. 2. Clinical examination and diagnosis of affected animals. 3. Treatment of sick animals. 4. Collection and forwarding for processing and analysis of relevant samples from affected animals. 5. Community dialogue with the affected community (how to control the disease and what are the needs of the community). 6. Assessing the possibility of delivering more animal health services including vaccination in the area.

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Methodology

• Team
• 3 member team of two veterinary surgeons (FAO and VSF Ch and one livestock technician

(VSF Ch)

• Participatory methods
• Participatory methods like proportional piling, ranking, mapping and focused group discussions

(FGD) as described in - ‘Methods on the move’ by Cartely A, 1999.

• Clinical examination
• From case history taking, followed by observation of the specific animal undisturbed,

systematic organ and tissue examination

• Post mortem examination
• A select carcass was examined for changes related to disease at post mortem- organ by
• rgan, system to system
• Sample collection
• Whole blood samples and smears, cow dung and vector insect specimen collected and

forwarded to laboratory for testing and identification respectively.

• Secondary data collection- literature review
• Past outbreak investigation reports: VSF Ch 2005, Chronic wasting – Andy Cartley 2000, IOE

2013

• General treatments
• Treatment for endemic disease cases identified in herds, late kit arrival- handover to CAWHs,

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Findings

Outputs:

• 3 meetings – 1 community dialogue with community leaders comprising

30 males, and 2 FGDs (5m:2f) with CAWHs and herders/keepers (all male) were conducted.

• More than 30 sick animals were presented for clinical examination, 15
• f which summary findings were captured for comparison- history was

provided by all members, including women who took care of cases left behind when weak.

• 25 whole blood samples, 5 blood smears, 5 dung samples 5 ticks and 3

tabanid insects were collected and forwarded lab processing, testing and identification- results are to confirm the tentative diagnosis: Malignant Catarrh Fever,

• Previous reports from Unity State outbreak investigations were

reviewed: VSF Suisse (2005), Cartley (2000) and IOE reference material (2013)

• 1 carcass was examined at Post Mortem
• Simple treatment was handed over to CAHWs for presenting cases

Vétérinaires Sans Frontières Suisse

Findings

Pertinent findings- disease signs as described and observed

• First case occurred in Rier, in July 2014. Spread out with fear migrating herds
• Heavy flooding and high mosquito population in the area
• Constant presence of adolescent sheep within 5km radius (lambing starts in Nov)
• Most cases presented acutely as sudden death (good body score). Some cases

had a chronic course - for victims with fair to poor body score

• Constant bi-lateral ocular discharge- some turning cheesy white, and some nasal

and oral discharge- with no lesions on observation

• Some blindness- in either one or both eyes; affected only cattle
• Diarrhea in initial stages, then firm to constipation in chronic cases
• Fever, inappetance, weakness and unthritfness in chronic cases
• 100% abortions- at all stages of pregnancy
• Pneumonic lungs, dark liver/cooked appearance, with whitish spots- no flukes
• Enlarged spleen, oozing dark foamy blood
• Gall bladder distended with orange-yellow fluid
• Dark colored kidney with easily peeling capsule
• Congested serosal GIT surface- in this case no pathognomonic stripes seen
• Dark muscle cut surface, including heart muscles
• Occasional enlarged lymph nodes (pre-scapular/crural)

Vétérinaires Sans Frontières Suisse

Mission pictures

Openly disposed cattle carcasses

Cut-section of liver with cooked appearance and gall bladder distended with orange yellow fluid

Dry muzzle with muco-purulent nasal discharge

Dark colored liver next to a hyperemic GIT serosa

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Pictures

Blood sample collection Proportional piling with keepers during FGD Priority disease ranking by CAHWs

Vétérinaires Sans Frontières Suisse

Constraints

• Insecurity- limited movement
• Poor logistical coordination- delivery
• f kits/equipment
• Communication- for coordination of

mission with Juba

• Transport- limited delivery of inputs,

services

• Inadequate animal health service

system

Vétérinaires Sans Frontières Suisse

Recommendations

• Conclusive test on samples presented for diagnosis confirmation and a

timely feedback to the community

• A comprehensive animal health services intervention ranging from

routine vaccinations, treatments, deworming, training of new community animal health workers, cold chain inputs and structures like a store for such materials for the area.

• Create awareness/educate the community on the suspect disease
• A thorough and conclusive research into the MCF disease in the area

for documentation and future disease control policy/decision making.

• MCF is not recognized as a zoonosis. The community chose to eat

some carcasses but gave up upon experiencing problems. This should further be investigated if MCF is confirmed by laboratory tests for documentation

• A public health intervention should be organized, including disposal of

the carcasses to avoid human infections.

• A food security and livelihoods intervention should be organized to

supply fishing and agricultural inputs as requested by community.

Im Impact of f the conflict on markets in in South Sudan

Are th there possibil ilities for r market t based in interv rventions?

By Aschalew Feleke, WFP VAM WFP South Sudan - Juba 21 January 2015

Presentatio ion Outl tlin ine

• Recap: Poor macro-economic climate and

constrained production

• Effect of conflict on supply chains and market

connectivity

• Impact on market prices and HH access
• Effects on food security
• Conflict and displacement: Both opportunity and

constraining factor

• Summary of market challenges
• Case for market based approaches in humanitarian
• perations: feasibilities
• Conclusions

Wide idenin ing food defic ficit it in in Greater Upper Nil ile amid idst dwin indli ling im imports.

Huge food deficits in conflict affected areas amidst constraints in imports and uncertain humanitarian assistance. In non-conflict states production is expected to be normal/good, although deficits are will remain the hallmark

NB: 2015 estimates derived from analysis during September IPC, while GFD refers to totality of food assistance planned assuming 100% funding

Su Supply ly chain ins restric icted by conflic flict on top of f str tructural l mark rket ine ineffic icie iencie ies

• High import dependency,

but high reliance

• n

informal trade

• Many traders have to

physically go to neighbouring countries to purchase goods

• Trading is hindered by

lack of US$ and high transaction costs (including taxation and checkpoints)

• Insecurity has lowered

risk appetite for traders to venture inland or from Govt. to

• pposition

controlled areas (and vice-versa)

• Inefficient

and challenging transport means

By Air Cargo aircraft By Road Individual/Pooled trucking Hired/own pack animal By River Barge Canoe Domestic producer Informal cross- border trader Trader assembler Wholesaler Retailer Consumer Formal cross- border trader Transporter- trader Broker Farmer trader Loader Off-loader Porter

Imported food Local food Transportation means

Involved in ownership flow Not involved in ownership flow Key Transportation mean (or a combination thereof) that may be involved at each stage of the supply chain

Trade flo flows (r (routes) ) se severed due to in inse security ty fears esp specially in in Greater Upper Nile ile

Significant disruption of trade routes in Greater Upper Nile Reduced commodity flow mainly at the borders with Ethiopia and Sudan and limited penetration into the interior Bentiu and Malakal currently relies mostly costly air cargoes from Juba in addition to limited informal trade.

However, trade routes remained active in non- conflict states after initial recovery. Informal flows from Sudan is significant esp. in Bahr el Ghazals and most part of Greater Upper Nile. Trade is however reduced by increased road blocks, taxation and poor infrastructure

Th The combined effect t of f conflict t and poor road netw twork has s fu furth ther iso isolated th the alr lready fr fragm gmented markets

Constrained physical access (measured by travel time to nearest capital market) even before the conflict, a factor of poor road connectivity further impacted by seasonality— WBEG and parts of WES had the longest travel time in absence of conflict In addition to conflict fears, bad roads increase transport costs, accounting for upto 30% of the trade value

However, travel time has significantly increased in Greater Upper Nile following the conflict— with physical access much severed Physical access remained the same to pre-conflict in non-conflict states

Hig igh costs of f busin iness heig ightened by numerous road blo locks

• Up to 14 road blocks (examples below)

currently reported Western transport corridor (Juba through Wunrok, estimated to be at least 4-fold increase since conflict

• Transport and taxation increases cost by up

to 40% --i.e. whereas a 50MT assorted food consignments costs $25,000, upto $7,500 and $2,500 is on transport and taxes respectively

Some of the road points taxes (Western corridor): Minimum of SSP 200 in each checkpoint

Fire brigade SSP50 Checking of vehicle documents SSP50 Search on vehicle SSP100-200 Bureau of Standards (depending on vehicle capacity SSP350-560 Traffic SSP30 Wildlife SSP30 Customs SSP120

LOCATIONS NO.OF CHECKPOINTS STATES JUBA 1 CENTRAL EQUARTORIA KUDA 1 CENTRAL EQUARTORIA ROKON 1 CENTRAL EQUARTORIA JAMBO 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA MUNDRI 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA YERI 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA MVOLO 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA PARASIKA MAMBE 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA MARIDI 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA IBBA 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA MAKPANDU 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA YAMBIO 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA TAMBURA 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA BUSHERE BRIDGE 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA DUMA BRIDGE 1 WESTERN EQUARTORIA RUMBEK 1 LAKES CUEIBET 1 LAKES TONJ 1 WARRAP WAU 1 WESTERN BAHR EL GHAZAL AWEIL 1 NORTHERN BAHR EL GHAZAL KUAJOK 1 WARRAP

St Staple le food, , so sorghum pric rices hig ighest in in Bentiu iu and

• ther conflic

lict affected areas.

Such high prices further limits household access amidst severely compromised (lost) purchasing power and lost livelihoods, thus humanitarian assistance becomes the main alternate viable option. Prices in Rumbek are high as well, due to large market inefficiencies not related to the conflict, but seasonal challenges as reflected in the year to year comparative prices—a reflection of poor road networks

Market m/m y/y Aweil

• 6%

26% Bentiu 36% 111% Bor 9% -17% Juba

• 17% -60%

Malakal 1% 45% Rumbek 11%

• 9%

Wau 1% 11%

Su Summary ry of f constrain ints reported by market pla layers

Insecurities (not related to the conflict) & Fear of looting reduces investments Damaged infrastructures (roads, storage …) Scattered and generally poor financial system (no credit/exchange facilities to traders) Decline in demand (Limited household purchasing power) Low availability of dollars from official sources Sharp depreciation of exchange rate and recourse to black market

Lack of own capital, 21% Insecurity, 23% Lack of demand, 16% Lack of forex, 8% Poor road infrastructur e/transport cost too high, 6% Lack of storage, 7% Low profit margin, 6% Lack of credit/credit too expensive, 4% Other, 10%

Traders’ Appetite

Interviewer “In Bentiu one bag of sugar can be sold at 1850 SSP, while here in Malakal at 580 SSP. Would you be interested in pursuing any business over there?” Trader “Price arbitrage is not an incentive, we won’t risk our life to do business”

Humanitarian ass ssistance as s a li lifeline in in most t conflict affected areas

Market Availability Traders in the market from last year Market Capacity Prices Akobo (Jonglei) Ethiopia 15% Low to Medium High Aweil (NBEG) Sudan / Local supply ~100% Medium to High Medium Bentiu (Unity) Sudan / Juba 50% (mostly petty traders) Low Highest Bor (Jonglei) Juba / Local supply 33% Medium Medium High Juba (CES) Uganda / Local supply (small) 60% (of bigger importers) High Low Malakal (Upper Nile) Sudan / Juba 15% Low to Medium Very High Nimule (EES) Uganda / Local supply ~100% High Low Torit (Eastern Equatoria) Uganda / Local supply >100% (traders from Jonglei) High Low Renk (Upper Nile) Sudan / Local supply 50% Medium to High Medium Rumbek (Lakes) Wau / Juba <100% (supply challenges) Low Very High Yambio (WES) Uganda / Juba Local supply ~100% Medium Medium Wau (WBEG) Sudan / Uganda / Juba ~100% Medium to High Medium High

While opportunities exist to pilot market based approaches to humanitarian support, most areas in Greater Upper Nile will remain dependent on direct food support

Co Conclu ludin ing Remarks/1

Conflict countrywide e.g. reduced road accessibility, increased checkpoints and roadblocks, high taxes, low transport capacity etc; this is on top of the macroeconomic consequences of the conflict (e.g. scarcity of foreign exchange). Greater Upper Nile worst impacted Food Availability varies across markets but largely depend on imports. The closer the markets to supply sources (including local production), the greater the availability of commodities and the lower the prices. The number of traders on the markets were impacted directly by the conflict. Elsewhere, poor trade

• pportunities may limit the number of traders (e.g.

Rumbek)

Co Conclu ludin ing Remarks/2 Mixed picture about the markets’ assurance of supply and stable market environment: Market Capacity is low in Akobo, Bentiu and Malakal as a result of the conflict, and in Rumbek due to poor road conditions; medium in Yambio and Bor; and high in Aweil, Wau, Nimule and Torit. Financial Institutions are weak countrywide except in Juba and traders rarely have access to loans or

• forex. In conflict affected areas they are not existing

(except few money transfers).

Th Thanks

Questions/clarifications?

SOUTH SUDAN

AOB

• Minkaman response strategy 2015
• Plans for 2015 need to be submitted at

earliest to have better 3W picture