Finding Near Earth Objects Before They Find Us! (and knowing what - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Finding Near Earth Objects

Before They Find Us!

(and knowing what to do about it)

Lindley Johnson Near Earth Object Observations Program Executive NASA HQ

January 8, 2014

CHELYABINSK EVENT

February 15, 2013 17-20 meter object ~500-550 kilotons TNT

CHELYABINSK EVENT

February 15, 2013 1613 citizens injured ~$30 million damages

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United States Government Policy and Approach Regarding Planetary Defense

Source

US Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Letter to Congress dated October 15, 2010* Response to Section 804 of NASA Authorization Act of 2008

The Director of OSTP will: (1) develop a policy for notifying Federal agencies and relevant emergency response institutions of an impending near-Earth object threat, if near-term public safety is at risk; and (2) recommend a Federal agency or agencies to be responsible for –

(A) protecting the United States from a near-Earth object that is expected to collide with Earth; and (B) implementing a deflection campaign, in consultation with international bodies, should one be necessary

* http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/ostp-letter-neo-senate.pdf 5

Background

• US President’s new plan for human space flight, announced April 15, 2010*,

establishes the goal of conducting a human mission to an NEO by 2025

* http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-space-exploration-21st-century

• US National Space Policy, June 28, 2010*

NASA shall: “Pursue capabilities, in cooperation with other departments, agencies, and commercial partners, to detect, track, catalog, and characterize near-Earth objects to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet and to identify potentially resource-rich planetary

• bjects.”

* http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf

• US President’s FY2014 NASA Budget Request:

“The budget request includes a doubling of NASA’s efforts to identify and characterize potentially hazardous near-Earth objects (NEOs). This increase in the budget reflects the serious approach NASA is taking to understand the risks of asteroid impacts to our home planet. It will also help identify potential targets for the future human mission to an asteroid.”

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NEO Threat Detection

Within US Government:

• NASA will coordinate NEO detection and threat information from all
• rganizations within the NEO observation community
• NASA has instituted communications procedures, including direction

with regard to public release of information

• NASA notification procedures are set into motion only after the

necessary observations, analyses, and characterization efforts have taken place to determine that a space object indeed represents a credible threat

– Depends on level of risk and urgency, may unfold for years after detection – Will entail various combinations of:

• Increased monitoring
• Cross-checks of potentially hazardous trajectories as needed
• Accelerated observations and orbit determination if potential hazard is

near term

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NEO Threat Notification

Upon notification from NASA: Of impending NEO Threat to United States territory:

• The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) takes lead to

notify appropriate Federal, state and local authorities and emergency response institutions utilizing existing resources and mechanisms

– When time/location of affected areas known, activate National Warning System – Analogous to large re-entering space debris and/or hurricane warning procedures – Post-impact event, analogous to other disaster emergency and relief efforts

Of NEO Threat beyond United States territory:

• US Department of State facilitates international notifications in effort to

minimize loss of human life and property

– Bilaterally through diplomatic channels to potentially affected countries – To member nations of multilateral forums – UN entities (OOSA, COPUOS), NATO, etc – Post-impact event, convey offers of disaster relief and technical assistance

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Potential NEO Mitigation/Deflection

• Essential first step is continued enhancement of efforts to detect NEOs

– Identify potential impact hazards early – Provide as much advanced warning of impact threat to enable more mitigation options

• Potential roles and responsibilities for mitigation options is in early stage of

development and not yet ready for implementation

– Wide range of possible scenarios and challenges involved – Significantly more analysis and simulation needed to understand feasibility and effectiveness

• f several approaches, and technical assessment of current technologies
• NASA to take lead to conduct foundational analysis and simulation,

assessment of applicable technologies

– Close coordination with DOD, FEMA, and other relevant departments and agencies – Possible emergency response exercises to be led by FEMA – Outreach to relevant private-sector stakeholders to leverage related work

– Important to engage other nations and multilateral forums to explore opportunities for international cooperation, e.g. UNCOPUOS, European Union, ISECG

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US component to International Spaceguard Survey effort Has provided 98% of new detections of NEOs since 1998 Began with NASA commitment to House Committee on Science in May 1998 to find at least 90% of 1 km and larger NEOs

§ Averaged ~$4M/year Research funding 2002-2010 § That goal reached by end of 2010

NASA Authorization Act of 2005 provided additional direction: “…plan, develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program to detect,

track, catalogue, and characterize the physical characteristics of near-Earth objects equal to or greater than 140 meters in diameter in order to assess the threat of such near-Earth objects to the Earth. It shall be the goal of the Survey program to achieve 90 percent completion of its near-Earth object catalogue within 15 years [by 2020].

Updated Program Objective: Discover > 90% of NEOs larger than 140 meters in size as soon as possible

§ Starting with FY2012, now has $20.5 M/year § FY2014 budget request increases to $40.5 M/year

NEO Observations Program

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NASA’s NEO Search Program

(Current Systems)

LINEAR

MIT/LL

Soccoro, NM

Catalina Sky Survey

UofAZ Arizona & Australia

Minor Planet Center (MPC)

• IAU sanctioned
• Int’l observation database
• Initial orbit determination

www.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/mpc.html

NEO Program Office @ JPL

• Program coordination
• Precision orbit determination
• Automated SENTRY

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/

Pan-STARRS

Uof HI Haleakula, Maui

NEO-WISE

JPL Sun-synch LEO

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Operations Jan 2010 Feb 2011, 129 NEAs found Reactivated Sep 2013

Known Near Earth Asteroid Population

Start of NASA NEO Program

10,573 12/31/13

Includes 94 comets

864 12/31/13

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Searching the Sky for Asteroids

Courtesy of Catalina Sky Survey

Discovery Images of Asteroid 2014 AA

2014 AA Predicted Impact Location

15 Credit Steve Chesley, NEO PO, JPL

Infrasound Detection: 3:25 UT 11.3° N 43° W

Spaceguard Survey Catalog Program

Current Spaceguard Survey Infrastructure and Process

Survey, Detect, & Report Correlate, Determine Rough Orbit Possible New PHO? Routine Processing Publish Results

Yes

Potential Impact? Resolve Result Differences Publish Results

No

Precision Orbit and Follow Up Observations Impact Still Possible? Observations and Update Orbit Publish/ Update Results

No No Yes Yes

Iterate

Survey Systems Minor Planet Center JPL NEO Office* * In parallel with NEODyS

Radar Alerts to NASA HQ

• MPC - PHO
• f interest
• MPC -

possible close approach

• JPL - reports

potential for impact

• JPL -

publishes probability of impact

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Existing Worldwide Observing Network

Data from 46 countries in 2012

~96% ~60% ~10% <1% <<1%

Known Near Earth Asteroid Population

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100 102 104 106 108 1010 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 10

• 1

10

2

10

5

10

8

10 102 104 106 108 0.01 0.1 1 10 Brown et al. 2002 Constant power law Discovered to 7/21/10 2010 K-T Impactor Tunguska Absolute Magnitude, H Diameter, Km N(<H) Impact Interval, years Impact Energy, MT

Population of NEAs by Size, Brightness, Impact Energy & Frequency (A. L. Harris 2010)

Population (powers of 10) 0.01 0.1 1 10

Assumes average density and 20 km/sec impact velocity Hiroshima Protected by Earth’s Atmosphere

Average Impact Interval (yrs)

100 102 104 106 108 1010 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 10

• 1

10

2

10

5

10

8

10 102 104 106 108 0.01 0.1 1 10 Brown et al. 2002 Constant power law Discovered to 7/21/10 2010 K-T Impactor Tunguska Absolute Magnitude, H Diameter, Km N(<H) Impact Interval, years Impact Energy, MT

Population of NEAs by Size, Brightness, Impact Energy & Frequency (A. L. Harris 2010)

140 m

50 m

1 km

~250,000 ~20,000 ~ 1,000

Population (powers of 10) 0.01 0.1 1 10

Assumes average density and 20 km/sec impact velocity Hiroshima Protected by Earth’s Atmosphere

Average Impact Interval (yrs)

• Radar is essential for obtaining an accurate estimate of size

and shape to within ~2 m, as well as rotation state.

• Ground-based and space-based IR measurements are

important for estimating albedo and spectral class, and from these an approximate density can be inferred.

• Light curves are important to estimate shape and rotation

state.

• Long-arc high-precision astrometry is important for

determining the area-to-mass ratio.

• Mass is estimated from size and shape using an inferred or

assumed density, and it should be constrained by the estimate of the area-to-mass ratio. Even so, mass may only be known to within a factor of 3 or 4.

• Composition can only be roughly assessed via analogy to

spectral class.

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Physical Characterization of NEAs

Assumed albedo ρ = 0.04 Assumed albedo ρ = 0.34

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Radar Observations of NEOs

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Arecibo 305 m Bennu (OSIRIS-ReX Target): Goldstone 70 m

• These are complementary capabilities.
• Currently, 70-80 NEOs are observed every year.
• Radar observations can provide:
• Size and shape to within ~2 meters.
• High precision range/Doppler orbit data.
• Spin rate, surface density and roughness.

Observations Shape Model

NEO Infrared Characterization

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NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF)

• Dedicated Planetary Science Observatory
• Characterization of Comets and Asteroids
• Spectroscopy and Thermal Signatures
• On-call for Rapid Response on Discoveries

Spitzer Infrared Space Telescope

• Orbit about Sun, ~176 million km from Earth
• In extended Warm-phase mission
• Characterization of Comets and Asteroids
• Thermal Signatures, Albedo/Sizes of NEOs
• Longer time needed for scheduling

Characterization Process

Observations Intermediate parameters Objectives Rough

• rbit

Precise

• rbit

Absolute magnitude Density Size Albedo Apparent magnitude Mass Spectral type Phase curves Colors, Spectroscopy Radar Light curves Rotation, Shape Additional astrometry Initial detection, astrometry, photometry Thermal infrared

Rough Approximation of Precise Approximate

Area/Mass Ratio Astrometry over months or years

• Discovered March 7, 2013 by Catalina Sky Survey.

– Initial size estimate: ~6m, Close approach 8 March at 0.5 lunar distance.

• Request follow-up astrometry orbit update to enable IRTF observation.
• IRTF Interrupt: Spectra and thermal IR [Moskovitz & Binzel]:

– L- or Xe-type, inferred albedo range of 0.1-0.4, density range of 2.0-3.0 g/cc – Diameter = 2.6 - 8.4 m, mass = 20 - 930 t – Spin rate ~0.5 rpm

• Arecibo radar @~3 lunar dist. [Borozovic]:

– Diameter = 1.5 - 3 m albedo > ~0.4 – Constrains mass to < 50 t – Spin rate: 0.5 – 2 rpm

Characterization Process Exercised for 2013 EC20

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Mitigation Studies and Related Efforts

• Mitigation Studies

– NEO Observations Program mitigation effects grants – NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts Program study awards – Kinetic Impactor demonstration mission studies

• Impactor for Surface and Interior Science (ISIS) mission concept
• Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission concept (with ESA)
• Interagency Efforts

– Impact Effects Studies

• DOE National Laboratories – Sandia and Lawrence Livermore

– Impact Emergency Response Exercises

• December 2008 US Air Force Interagency Deliberate Planning Exercise – Natural Impact Hazard
• April 2013 - FEMA HQ Impact Emergency Response Table Top Exercise (TTX)

– Newly initiated capabilities studies with DARPA and DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

• International Efforts

– UN Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Scientific and Technical Subcommittee

• NEO Working Group and Action Team–14

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Overview ¡for ¡NEO ¡ Threat ¡Response ¡

Interna7onal ¡ Asteroid ¡Warning ¡ Network ¡(IAWN) ¡ Space ¡Missions ¡ Planning ¡Advisory ¡ Group ¡ (SMPAG) ¡ Impact ¡disaster ¡ planning ¡advisory ¡ group ¡

Observers, ¡analysts, ¡ modelers… ¡ Space ¡Agencies ¡ Disaster ¡response ¡ agencies ¡

COPUOS ¡

Inform ¡in ¡case ¡of ¡credible ¡threat ¡ Disaster ¡ Response ¡ ¡Plans ¡ D e fl e c <

• n

¡ m i s s i

• n

¡ p l a n s ¡

Ad-­‑hoc ¡mi7ga7on ¡ mission ¡advisory ¡ group ¡

Advise ¡planning ¡for ¡and ¡ response ¡to ¡the ¡threat ¡

Affected ¡ na7ons ¡

E s t a b l i s h ¡ i n ¡ c a s e ¡

• f

¡ c r e d i b l e ¡ t h r e a t ¡ See ¡A/AC.105/C.1/L.329 ¡

• Dec. ¡21, ¡2012* ¡

Member ¡States ¡

UN ¡Office ¡of ¡Outer ¡Space ¡Affairs ¡ CommiEee ¡on ¡Peaceful ¡Uses ¡of ¡Outer ¡Space ¡

*hVp://www.oosa.unvienna.org/oosa/en/COPUOS/stsc/wgneo/index.html ¡

Overview ¡for ¡NEO ¡ Threat ¡Response ¡

Interna7onal ¡ Asteroid ¡Warning ¡ Network ¡(IAWN) ¡ Space ¡Missions ¡ Planning ¡Advisory ¡ Group ¡ (SMPAG) ¡ Impact ¡disaster ¡ planning ¡advisory ¡ group ¡

Observers, ¡analysts, ¡ modelers… ¡ Space ¡Agencies ¡ Disaster ¡response ¡ agencies ¡

COPUOS ¡

Inform ¡in ¡case ¡of ¡credible ¡threat ¡ Disaster ¡ Response ¡ ¡Plans ¡ D e fl e c <

• n

¡ m i s s i

• n

¡ p l a n s ¡

Ad-­‑hoc ¡mi7ga7on ¡ mission ¡advisory ¡ group ¡

Advise ¡planning ¡for ¡and ¡ response ¡to ¡the ¡threat ¡

Affected ¡ na7ons ¡

E s t a b l i s h ¡ i n ¡ c a s e ¡

• f

¡ c r e d i b l e ¡ t h r e a t ¡ See ¡A/AC.105/C.1/L.329 ¡

• Dec. ¡21, ¡2012* ¡

Member ¡States ¡

UN ¡Office ¡of ¡Outer ¡Space ¡Affairs ¡ CommiEee ¡on ¡Peaceful ¡Uses ¡of ¡Outer ¡Space ¡

*hVp://www.oosa.unvienna.org/oosa/en/COPUOS/stsc/wgneo/index.html ¡

1st ¡mee7ng ¡of ¡Steering ¡Cmte, ¡ January ¡13-­‑14, ¡2014, ¡@ ¡MPC ¡ 1st ¡mee7ng ¡February ¡6-­‑7, ¡ 2014, ¡hosted ¡by ¡ESA ¡@ ¡ESOC ¡

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Future Capability for Planetary Defense

NASA Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection - Analysis of Alternatives Report to Congress, March 2007 http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/171331main_NEO_report_march07.pdf NRC Report – “Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth-Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies”, January 2010 http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12842

Various ¡Space-­‑based ¡NEO ¡Survey ¡Telescope ¡Concepts ¡

• A ¡Space ¡based ¡NEO ¡survey ¡telescope ¡will ¡discover ¡hazardous ¡and ¡highly ¡

accessible ¡NEO ¡targets ¡suitable ¡for ¡human ¡explora7on ¡in ¡a ¡7mely ¡manner. ¡ – Op7mized ¡for ¡detec7on ¡of ¡objects ¡in ¡Earth-­‑like ¡orbits ¡within ¡two ¡ years ¡of ¡launch ¡ – Launch ¡ready ¡in ¡4 ¡to ¡5 ¡years ¡with ¡low ¡risk ¡

• The ¡survey ¡will ¡include ¡follow-­‑up ¡of ¡all ¡detected ¡objects, ¡plus ¡

characteriza.on ¡(size, ¡rota.on ¡rate) ¡of ¡selected ¡objects. ¡

Study Description Survey Type Picture Cost NEOCam/JPL

• Sun-Earth L1 orbit
• Mid-IR
• 50cm aperture

Sweet Spot < $500 M (excluding launch)

NEOStar/BATC

• Trailing Venus orbit
• Mid-IR
• 50cm aperture

Opposition ~ $500 M (excluding launch)

NEST – L2/APL

• Sun-Earth L2 orbit
• Visible
• 90cm aperture

Sweet Spot < $500 M (excluding launch)

NEST - Venus/ APL

• Trailing Venus orbit
• Mid-IR
• 90cm aperture

Opposition ~ $500 M (excluding launch)

Public Private Partnership- Space Act Agreement with B612 Foundation

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Grand Challenge Statement*

Find all asteroid threats to human populations and know what to do about them

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*Announced ¡June ¡18, ¡2013 ¡

FY14 Asteroid Initiative: What and How

Asteroid Initiative

Both ¡sets ¡of ¡ac7vi7es ¡leverage ¡exis7ng ¡NASA ¡work ¡while ¡amplifying ¡par7cipatory ¡engagement ¡to ¡accomplish ¡their ¡ individual ¡objec7ves ¡and ¡synergize ¡for ¡a ¡greater ¡collec7ve ¡purpose. ¡

Enhanced NEO Observation Campaign*

Asteroid Mission Grand Challenge

Robotic Mission to Redirect an Asteroid, SEP Human Mission to an Asteroid Diverse Stakeholder Engagement Mitigation Approaches Learning how to manipulate and interact with a NEA * ¡FY2014 ¡PBR ¡increases ¡NEOO ¡Program ¡to ¡$40.5M ¡

Asteroid Redirect Mission Consists of Three Main Segments

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Asteroid Identification Segment: Ground and space based NEA target detection, characterization and selection Iden7fy ¡ Asteroid Crewed Exploration Segment: Orion and SLS based crewed rendezvous and sampling mission to the relocated asteroid Explore ¡ Asteroid Robotic Redirection Segment: Solar electric propulsion (SEP) based robotic asteroid redirect to trans-lunar space Redirect ¡

No<onal ¡ No<onal ¡

Tasked to NEOO with additional funding

Primary Enhancements for NEO Search

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• NEO Time on DARPA Space Surveillance Telescope
• Large 3.6m telescope, first light: Feb 2011, now in testing.
• Eventual operations by AFSPC for DoD Space Situational

Awareness.

• Testing of NEO detection capability: Late 2013, early 2014.
• Enhancing Pan-STARRS 1, Completing Pan-STARRS 2
• Increase NEO search time to 100% on PS1: Early 2014.
• Complete PS2 (improved copy of PS1): Late 2014.
• Accelerated Completion of ATLAS
• Set of small telescopes with extremely wide fields of view

covering the entire night sky every night, but not as deeply.

• Final design selection soon. Completion: Early 2015.

NEO Characterization Enhancements

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NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF)

• Increase On-call for Rapid Response.
• Improve Instrumentation for Spectroscopy

and Thermal Signatures. Reactivate NEOWISE

• ~3 year warm phase dedicated to

NEO Search/Characterization data collection.

NEOWISE JPL Sun-synch LEO Arecibo Observatory Goldstone Radar

Radar (Goldstone and Arecibo)

• Increase time for NEO observations.
• Streamline Rapid Response

capabilities.

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Detecting NEOs from GEO

Objective: Improve the rate of detection of smaller, long synodic period NEAs. Request for Information released in October 2012 showed that several short term, affordable

• ptions may exist.

Needs Addressed: Smaller hazardous NEAs, Human spaceflight target detection, orbit determination, size IR Instrument Phase A Studies:

• AO in work to request proposals for Phase A studies for a suite of 3 IR instruments

to be hosted on commercial geosynchronous spacecraft

• Goal is to fund 3 Phase A studies, with possible down-select to one proposal by

2015.

NEA Detector Concept (Source: Raytheon)

• NEOO project enhancements will add capability to find hazardous asteroids as

well as ARRM candidate targets.

• Simulations suggest there are thousands of suitable ARRM candidate targets;

the challenge is to find several that will meet the mission envelope.

• With several survey enhancements in process, and new surveys coming online

within the next 2 years, both the NEO and the ARRM candidate discovery rates should at least double.

• Rapid response after discovery is critical for physical characterization of both

hazardous and ARRM candidates. The process has already been successfully exercised for difficult-to-characterize candidates.

• Goldstone and Arecibo radars are key characterization assets for NEAs of

interest because they provide accurate estimates of size and rotation state.

• Other major assets for characterization are available. Interagency agreements

for target-of-opportunity observing time from important non-NASA facilities (eg. Subaru) can be negotiated.

• There are several ongoing efforts with interagency and international entities
• The recent increased interest in NEOs, the hazard and opportunity they pose,

has made this a rapidly expanding mission area for Planetary Science.

Summary of NASA PD Efforts

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