Fenny Kusumawardani (Urban and Regional Planning) Rudiansyah SN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Fenny Kusumawardani (Urban and Regional Planning) Rudiansyah SN (Environmental Science)

Supervisor: Eveline Buter (Witteveen+Bos Indonesia) Arno Kops (Witteveen+Bos Netherlands) Hans Hasselt (Saxion University) Gerry Stegeman (Saxion University)

 Situation Review  Banger Polder Project  Objective & MRQ  SCBA  Feasibility study

• Methods of SCBA
• Result
• Sensitivity analysis
• Conclusion and recommendation

 Applicability of SCBA in Indonesia

• Methods
• Conclusion and recommendation

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

 Semarang Timur

• Flood
• Inundation

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

 The projects are

• Strengthening eastern and northern dikes
• closing Kali Banger from the sea by building dam
• Kali Banger will be dredged deeper,
• Building pumping station
• Enlarging retention basin
• Optimizing and implementing channels and weirs.

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Cost for the construction,

• peration and

maintenance are 76 billions Rupiah

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Objectives :

• 1. To give a Socio-Economic Cost and Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of

Banger Project Polder in Semarang during 20 years lifetime, in order to know feasibility of the project.

• 2. To measure applicability of SCBA, by consulting stakeholders in

Semarang, Indonesia and researchers experiences. MRQ:

• 1. How is the feasibility of Banger Project Polder using Socio-Economic

Cost and Benefit Analysis?

• 2. Does the value show significant change in the result due to the use of

those values? How much its sensitivity if the value is changed?

• 3. Will SCBA be applicable to use as an analysis tool in Indonesia?

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

“What SCBA is”: An analysis of the Cost Effectiveness of Different Alternatives in

• rder to see whether the benefits outweigh the cost,

SCBA will:

• Describe all (+) and (-) impacts of the project, also for those

which do not have PRICE in the MARKET

• And try to express it in MONETARY TERMS

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

“What the advantages of SCBA are”:



It will reflect the real value of a project to society



Evaluating a project from the view point of the society



Considering the sustainability for the inhabitants and environment



States in money: the assessment become more visible



Measuring the feasibility of the project for the inhabitants and environment



Clear information of society’s welfare & risk from a project in

• rder to make economic decisions of any kind

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Steps in SCBA in order to know the

FEASIBILITY

• f the project

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Step 1-2: Describing the baseline as autonomous development and Banger Polder Project refer to it

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Step 3: Cost of the BPP (alternative) consist of:

• Investment

cost (once)

• O & M cost

(yearly)

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Step 4: Translating the physical impact into welfare impact

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Step 5: Formulating the way of calculation (formula) to quantify and monetize the impact  result in money In this step, the (+) or (-) impact

• f the project is described

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Step 6:

Timeline

process, in order to know what going to happen in the next N years  Present value Formula: PV= F / (1+r )N

After this step, the FEASIBILITY of a Banger polder project can be concluded

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

To measure the feasibility of Banger Project, a balancing between COST and BENEFIT is done

From the table, it can be viewed that the project is FEASIBLE = (NPV > 0) = brings benefit to the inhabitants and entire Banger area. Per year, each household has € 510 of the benefit and € 760 for Banger area

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Step 7-8: Analyzing sensitivity of the result by the discount rate and the used data of some impacts calculation Sensitivity = the rank between autonomous development and the alternative does not change

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

The calculation shows that the project brings benefit around € 760 per Household per year = NPV > 0 = the project is FEASIBLE Researcher should aware with the use of approach

and assumption to calculate the impact

Conclusion: Recommendation: And the result is not sensitive with the change of discount rate and the uncertain data, the project still brings

benefit to the inhabitants

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Appropriate strategy should be properly constructed if a survey is planned

 Method

• Drs. PM. Broto Sunaryo, MSP

Reseacher’s experience by applying SCBA in Indonesia

Accessibility of data

Nik Sutiyani ST., MT. -

• Ir. Rosid Hudoyo, M.T -

Sufficient fund Acceptable period of time Human resources. Level of influence in decision making Criteria SWOT

Sources Criteria Result

Interview

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Accessibility of data Sufficient fund Acceptable period of time Human resources. Level of influence in decision making

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Inconsistent data inventory Limited information about financial data Variations in raw data Population census Central Statistic Bureau

Investor Loans Economic growth Investor Loans Economic growth

Limited time due to project schedule Political issue Bottom up system Training

National economic expert organization

Subject of SWOT analysis: Applicability of SCBA in Indonesia

Strengths:

• Capable human resources

Weakness:

• Insufficient fund
• Time consuming
• Inconsistent data
• Inaccessible data

Opportunity:

• An organization that validates result of

SCBA

• Economic growth
• Investor
• Legalization

Threats:

• Politicaleffect
• Variety of income and public

values.

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

Conclusion Social-economical cost benefit analysis can be applied in Indonesia. Recommendation However, to be better applied, the outcome of this cost benefit analysis should be regulated and legalized during policy making steps. For further research is necessary to interview higher level of government in

• Indonesia. Since, not only having more proper answer but also introduce

SCBA to them.

After legalization of SCBA several points should be considered by Indonesia governments, which are: 1. Policy about accessibility of data

• 2. An agency to evaluate the result of SCBA.

Other stakeholder (university, researcher, private companies) who willing to have this analysis applies in Indonesia, can do this following step: 1. Making article about SCBA in press media

• 2. Giving lecture or presentation about SCBA to government

Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia

• 1. How is the feasibility of Banger Project Polder using Socio-

Economic Cost and Benefit Analysis?

• 2. Does the value show significant change in the result due

to the use of those values? How much its sensitivity if the value is changed?

• 3. Will SCBA be applicable to use as an analysis tool in

Indonesia?