families in in NSW October 2019 1. Their futures matter investment - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Usin ing lin linked administrative data to im improve outcomes for vulnerable families in in NSW October 2019 1. Their futures matter investment model An overview 2. Our approach 3. Key results 4. Next steps 5. Further information 2
October 2019
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In Introduction
Their ir Futu tures s Mat atter r Un Unit it is a New South Wales government agency set up to improve life outcomes for vulnerable children
foster care in NSW – the the Tune Rep eport
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The The Tune Rep eport foun
expenditure the number of children in foster care has doubled over the past 10 years
intergenerational abuse and neglect
immediate crises it failed to do enough to in the area of prevention
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The investment model …
priorit itize in invest stments ts in in vu vuln lnerable chi child ldren and evaluate those investments
ts lif ife path pathways and and out
for all children in the state
cross-agency out
rm out
Ou Our ap approach
inked cr cros
individual historical pathways
Analysis s of
patterns in in hist istorical l path pathways – used machine learning but final implementation were generalised linear models for more control/explainability
Micro-simulatio ion of
ture path pathways s – for a population of about 3m with 80+ component models
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Wha hat age agencies co contributed pa path thway in information?
Which chi children and and young pe people ar are inc included in in th the ana analysis?
(or have lived) in NSW
individual’s parents
3 millio illion individual pathways were analysed
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Ho Housing
Chi hild protection
generation)
(concern report and SARA)
Jus Justice
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Services and events included in each individual’s pathway
Education
school moves
He Health
presentations
Me Mental hea health
mental health
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Services and events included in each individual’s pathway (cont.)
Parental ris risk fac actors
AOD hospital admission
related offence or victim of domestic violence
hospital or ambulatory services
Alc lcohol and and ot
drugs
Com
services
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Services and events included in each individual’s pathway (cont.)
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Pat athway dyna namics
Serv ervice Usa Usage (what, when, how much?) Educ ucational l att attain inment Par arenta tal risk isk fact factors Demographi hics (age, gender, Aboriginality, birth location) Perin erinatal l risk isk fact actors Men ental health h an and AOD OD ind ndicators
path pathway dyn ynamics
athway dyn ynamics tell us how a persons characteristics and their pathway up to a point in time influence their likely future pathway
path pathway dyn ynamics are used to simulate future pathways for all children and young people aged under 25 in NSW.
person’s future pathways will look like – each simulation represents
get an estimate of the distr distrib ibutio tion
possi sible out
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Res esults overview
TFM’s Investment Model uses individual-level linked administrative data from most government sectors to estimate future service usage and outcomes for young people of NSW There were children and young people born in NSW and aged under 25 as at 30 June 2017 We’ve estimated their average future human services cost (to age 40) to the NSW Government to be
which adds up to
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Res esults overview
For these young people, future human services costs to the NSW Government are highly concentrated 7% 7% of these young people make up 50 50% of the future cost
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Res esults overview
Estimated future cost is particularly concentrated in some sectors
1% 1% of the study
population make up
1% of children
currently aged 5 and under make up
5% of females
make up
Almost 100% of the estimated
future cost for next generation out-
32% of the estimated
future cost for NSW justice services
45% of the estimated future cost for
NSW child protection services for children currently aged 5 and under
Res esults overview
We used the modelling to define six vulnerable groups. These vulnerable groups were chosen:
needs can vary significantly by life stage TFM are focusing on two of the vulnerable groups for state-wide systems and services responses
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Ho How man any ki kids ar are in in this this gr group? ?
At 160,403 kids, that’s about 1 in 4 NSW-born kids under 5
Who’s in this group?
Children aged 5 or younger at 30 June 2017 with one or more of the following:
Wha hat is is th the average fut uture co cost of
th this gr group? ?
On average, the future cost
children is $250k
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21 Socia ial out utcom
Vul Vulnerable yo young ung chi hildren
Proportion expected to have an OOHC placement
12x 12x
Proportion whose children expected to require OOHC
3. 3.9x
Proportion expected to enter custody
2. 2.5x
Proportion expected to use social housing as adults
2. 2.5x
Proportion completed or expected to complete the HSC
0. 0.8x
Proportion expected to be admitted to hospital for AOD
1. 1.7x
Proportion expected to be supported by welfare
1. 1.4x
Res esults overview
For each vulnerable group we have identified risk indicators associated with these children having poor outcomes later in life. These risk indicators will allow TFM to better target the most vulnerable in each group.
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Il Illustrative vi visualisation
findings in relation to the intergenerational transmission
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Ne Next steps
prioritize investments
those investments
covered
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Fur urther in information
Model
Pr Press ar articles
services sector responds to report
parents the greatest risk for children
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Pet eter Mu Mulq lquiney | | Principal +61 2 9249 2959 peter.mulquiney@taylorfry.com.au
Level 22 45 Clarence Street Sydney NSW 2000
www.ta .taylo lorfr fry.c .com.a .au
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