Extended S napshot Tool 19th Nov. 2010 Bangkok, Thailand Kei GOMI - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Extended S napshot Tool

19th Nov. 2010 Bangkok, Thailand Kei GOMI Kyoto University

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What is ExS S ?

• Extended S

napshot Tool

• A static model consists of simultaneous equations with

about 6000 variables

• GAMS

program

• Describe S
• cio-economic activity, energy consumption

and CO2 emissions quantitatively and consistently

• Determine introduction of Low-carbon measures required

to achieve certain level of emission target

• Extendable to Agriculture, Forestry, Land-use change,

Waste disposal, Air/ Water Pollution, etc.

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Necessary information

• Base year data

– Population and Household – Input Output table (or, regional economic accounting) – Transport demand (Passenger & Freight) – Building – Energy demand – Energy supply – etc

• Reference for future scenario

– Population proj ection – Economic proj ection / planning – Transport planning – Energy strategy – Potential of renewable energy – etc

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ExS S Demo Version

• S

implified version of ExS S

• S

imilar structure with full version

• An Excel file
• For demonstration and training

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S tructure of ExS S Demo Version

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Annual per capita GDP growth rate Household size Floor area per value added Freight generation per

• utput

Transport distance Modal share Trip per person Average trip distance Modal share Energy service demand per driving force Fuel share Energy efficiency CO2 emission factor GDP Population growth rate Number of household GDP of tertiary industry Commercial building floor area Freight transport demand Passenger transport demand Population Energy service demand GDP of primary/ second ary industry Exogenous variables Parameters Endogenous variables Final energy demand Energy demand (DPG) Central power generation (CPG) Energy demand (CPG) Primary energy supply Dispersed power generation (DPG) CO2 emssions Energy efficiency DPG Energy efficiency (CPG) Fuel share (CPG) Transmission loss (CPG) Own use (CPG) Energy end-use device share Energy end-use device energy efficiency Base year population Base year GDP S hare of industry

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Four S teps

• Area
• Base year
• Target year
• Scenario name
• LCS target
• Unit
• Classification
• Population growth
• Household size
• GDP growth
• Industrial structure
• Transport demand
• Residential
• Commercial
• Industry
• Passenger and

freight Transport

• Power supply
• Carbon sink
• Demography
• Economy
• Transport
• Building
• Energy demand
• Energy efficiency
• Power supply
• Emission factor

(1) Setting framework (2) Input base year information (3) Estimate future socio-economic scenario and “BaU” emissions (4) Setting low-carbon measures and analyzing the result

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Today,

• Using ExS

S Demo Version

• With Thailand data
• Input parameters based on socio-economic

assumptions

• Estimate BaU (business as usual) emissions
• Try to achieve an emission target
• Q&A