EXECUTIVE BRIEFING THE COVID ECONOMY: WHAT DOES RECOVERY LOOK LIKE? - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

An independent member of UHY international

EXECUTIVE BRIEFING THE COVID ECONOMY: WHAT DOES RECOVERY LOOK LIKE?

• Dr. Chris Kuehl

Managing Director, Armada Corporate Intelligence Chris.Kuehl@armadaci.com Presenter

An independent member of UHY international

WEBINAR FAQ’S

• Our presentation today will be 60 minutes
• 45 minute presentation
• 15 minute question and answer session at end
• A digital copy of the slides and recording will be sent to

attendees later today

• Survey will follow the session, please provide feedback

The Next Level

• f Service

An independent member of UHY international

WEBINAR FAQ’S

• You are muted. We will be answering

questions/comments at the end of the presentation.

• Please use the Controls in the side panel:
• To ask a question, type in the

Question/Comment Box

The Next Level

• f Service

June 17, 2020 Analysis of the Forces Affecting Business Chris.Kuehl@armadaci.com

Too Early to Talk About a Post Covid 19 Economy? UHY Webinar June 17, 2020

Chris Kuehl – Managing Director Armada Corporate Intelligence

5

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

White Swan Comeback?

6

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Some Late Breaking News

• Latest WSJ Economists poll shows that over 68%

believe that a recovery will manifest by the third quarter.

• Consumer confidence is up more than expected –
• Univ. of Michigan survey moved from 72.3% to 78.9%.
• Retail numbers jumped by over 17%.
• On a not so positive side, there have been higher

numbers of infections in California, Texas and Florida.

– Partly due to more testing, but community spread is a factor as well – Fatality rate has remained stable and there has been a breakthrough on treatment options – Former hotspots remain down – Infections per million still low in both Texas and Florida

7

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Challenge of Bad Data

• Models rely on accurate data, and there has been too

little of it.

– Deliberate obfuscation – Instant experts and wild theories – New strain of virus and little is known about it – Conflicting interpretations of findings

• Difference of opinion on economic recovery

– All depends on consumer preference – Many trends had already started – retail shift to online, working from home, increased reliance on tech and robotics – Many companies were already on the brink, and the virus pushed them over the edge

8

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Global Stress Explodes

• Number one trigger for social unrest is economic

dislocation and fear

– Riots in the US – Hong Kong protests and crackdowns on protests in Wuhan and other Chinese cities – Violent protests in France, Spain and Italy – Right wing marches and confrontations in Germany – Riots and protests in Brazil – Ethnic riots and protests in India – Severe government crackdown in Russia, Vietnam, Nigeria, South Africa

• Over 40 million unemployed in the US, 10 nations in

Europe with unemployment rates over 10%, estimate of a 15% reduction in employment worldwide

9

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Remember the Original Goal

10

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

The Trade Off is STILL The Issue

11

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Many States Remain Unprepared

12

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

How Much Impact?

13

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Which Way Are We Headed?

14

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Consumer Confidence

15

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Big Hit in Exports

16

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Oil Prices

17

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

What Worries People

18

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

CMI Overall – Nice Little Rise

May '19 Jun '19 Jul '19 Aug '19 Sep '19 Oct '19 Nov '19 Dec '19 Jan '20 Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20 +/- 1.6

• 0.7
• 1.6

1.8

• 1.2

0.5 0.9

• 0.9

1.8

• 0.3
• 7.2
• 8.3

3.5

• 10.0
• 8.0
• 6.0
• 4.0
• 2.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

Index

Combined Index Monthly Change

(seasonally adjusted)

19

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Some Scenarios

20

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Major Shift for Low Wage Workers

21

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Boost in Income

22

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Three Scenarios

• Most Likely – A series of serious outbreaks in specific

areas with a vulnerable population. This would include where the elderly population is large or where there are large crowded urban areas.

• Next Most Likely – Waves of infection in areas where

there has been a loosening of restrictions as people who were not exposed become infected.

• Least Likely – Massive second wave that looks like the

first one and spreads at the same rate.

• The role of “Herd Immunity” – the more that people are

exposed and get the infection the larger the population with temporary immunity. It is estimated that roughly 70% to 90% are either without symptoms or have a mild version.

23

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

Life has Altered

24

Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com

June 17, 2020

www.armada-intel.com

You KNOW You Want More

• chris.kuehl@armadaci.com
• (816) 304-3017
• Business Intelligence Brief –

published every Monday, Wednesday and Friday

– It’s FREE!

• Black Owl Report – published

every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday

– One month free trial at no cost and no obligation

An independent member of UHY international

FEEL FREE TO REACH OUT

• Dr. Chris Kuehl

Managing Director, Armada Corporate Intelligence Chris.Kuehl@armadaci.com

An independent member of UHY international

QUESTIONS?

An independent member of UHY international

THANK YOU

Thank you for joining us today! We appreciate your feedback, please take the short survey that follows. Join us next month on July 15th for our next Executive Briefing featuring Drew Carter presenting on Digital Disruption.

Drew Carter President, Maritz Motivation