EXECUTIVE BRIEFING THE COVID ECONOMY: WHAT DOES RECOVERY LOOK LIKE? Dr. Chris Kuehl Managing Director, Armada Corporate Intelligence Chris.Kuehl@armadaci.com Presenter An independent member of UHY international
WEBINAR FAQ’S • Our presentation today will be 60 minutes • 45 minute presentation • 15 minute question and answer session at end • A digital copy of the slides and recording will be sent to attendees later today • Survey will follow the session, please provide feedback The Next Level of Service An independent member of UHY international
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Too Early to Talk About a Post Covid 19 Economy? UHY Webinar June 17, 2020 Chris Kuehl – Managing Director Armada Corporate Intelligence Analysis of the Forces Affecting Business June 17, 2020 Chris.Kuehl@armadaci.com
White Swan Comeback? Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 5
Some Late Breaking News • Latest WSJ Economists poll shows that over 68% believe that a recovery will manifest by the third quarter. • Consumer confidence is up more than expected – Univ. of Michigan survey moved from 72.3% to 78.9%. • Retail numbers jumped by over 17%. • On a not so positive side, there have been higher numbers of infections in California, Texas and Florida. – Partly due to more testing, but community spread is a factor as well – Fatality rate has remained stable and there has been a breakthrough on treatment options – Former hotspots remain down – Infections per million still low in both Texas and Florida Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 6
Challenge of Bad Data • Models rely on accurate data, and there has been too little of it. – Deliberate obfuscation – Instant experts and wild theories – New strain of virus and little is known about it – Conflicting interpretations of findings • Difference of opinion on economic recovery – All depends on consumer preference – Many trends had already started – retail shift to online, working from home, increased reliance on tech and robotics – Many companies were already on the brink, and the virus pushed them over the edge Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 7
Global Stress Explodes • Number one trigger for social unrest is economic dislocation and fear – Riots in the US – Hong Kong protests and crackdowns on protests in Wuhan and other Chinese cities – Violent protests in France, Spain and Italy – Right wing marches and confrontations in Germany – Riots and protests in Brazil – Ethnic riots and protests in India – Severe government crackdown in Russia, Vietnam, Nigeria, South Africa • Over 40 million unemployed in the US, 10 nations in Europe with unemployment rates over 10%, estimate of a 15% reduction in employment worldwide Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 8
Remember the Original Goal Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 9
The Trade Off is STILL The Issue Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 10
Many States Remain Unprepared Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 11
How Much Impact? Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 12
Which Way Are We Headed? Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 13
Consumer Confidence Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 14
Big Hit in Exports Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 15
Oil Prices Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 16
What Worries People Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 17
CMI Overall – Nice Little Rise Combined Index Monthly Change (seasonally adjusted) 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Index -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -10.0 May '19 Jun '19 Jul '19 Aug '19 Sep '19 Oct '19 Nov '19 Dec '19 Jan '20 Feb '20 Mar '20 Apr '20 May '20 +/- 1.6 -0.7 -1.6 1.8 -1.2 0.5 0.9 -0.9 1.8 -0.3 -7.2 -8.3 3.5 Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 18
Some Scenarios Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 19
Major Shift for Low Wage Workers Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 20
Boost in Income Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 21
Three Scenarios • Most Likely – A series of serious outbreaks in specific areas with a vulnerable population. This would include where the elderly population is large or where there are large crowded urban areas. • Next Most Likely – Waves of infection in areas where there has been a loosening of restrictions as people who were not exposed become infected. • Least Likely – Massive second wave that looks like the first one and spreads at the same rate. • The role of “Herd Immunity” – the more that people are exposed and get the infection the larger the population with temporary immunity. It is estimated that roughly 70% to 90% are either without symptoms or have a mild version. Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 22
Life has Altered Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 23
You KNOW You Want More • chris.kuehl@armadaci.com • (816) 304-3017 • Business Intelligence Brief – published every Monday, Wednesday and Friday – It’s FREE! • Black Owl Report – published every Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday – One month free trial at no cost and no obligation Chris.kuehl@armadaci.com www.armada-intel.com June 17, 2020 24
FEEL FREE TO REACH OUT Dr. Chris Kuehl Managing Director, Armada Corporate Intelligence Chris.Kuehl@armadaci.com An independent member of UHY international
QUESTIONS? An independent member of UHY international
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