Establishing and Understanding Post-2020 Climate Change Mitigation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Establishing and Understanding Post-2020 Climate Change Mitigation Commitments

CCXG side event Friday 15 November 2013 Gregory Briner, OECD

gregory.briner@oecd.org Based on the paper “Establishing and Understanding Post-2020 Climate Change Mitigation Commitments” by Gregory Briner and Andrew Prag

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Outline

 Status of the negotiations  The 2020 pledges and multiple dimensions of mitigation commitments  Concept of bounded flexibility for commitments  Information needed ex- ante to understand commitments

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Climate Change Expert Group Bali Action Plan agreed Kyoto Protocol signed Stockholm Conference, Brundtland Report UNFCCC signed

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Tracking the global carbon budget

Source: IPCC (2013)

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A snapshot of the 2020 pledges

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1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO2-eq) GDP in 2010 (billion 2005 USD, PPP) No pledge Intensity goal Absolute cap BAU goal Carbon neutrality Other goal US Japan Russia Germany Australia Spain Poland Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. Absolute cap

Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO2-eq) GDP in 2010 (billion 2005 USD, PPP) No pledge Intensity goal Absolute cap BAU goal Carbon neutrality Other goal US China India Japan Russia Germany Australia Spain Poland Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. Absolute cap Intensity goal

Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO2-eq) GDP in 2010 (billion 2005 USD, PPP) No pledge Intensity goal Absolute cap BAU goal Carbon neutrality Other goal US China India Japan Russia South Africa Germany Brazil Indonesia Mexico Republic of Korea Australia Spain Poland Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. Absolute cap Intensity goal Reduction from BAU

Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO2-eq) GDP in 2010 (billion 2005 USD, PPP) No pledge Intensity goal Absolute cap BAU goal Carbon neutrality Other goal US China India Japan Russia South Africa Germany Brazil Eritrea Indonesia Mexico Republic of Korea Australia Spain Poland Ethiopia Morocco Costa Rica Tanzania Togo Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. Absolute cap Intensity goal Reduction from BAU Carbon neutrality Other goal

Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 Annual GHG emissions in 2010 excl. LULUCF sinks (MtCO2-eq) GDP in 2010 (billion 2005 USD, PPP) No pledge Intensity goal Absolute cap BAU goal Carbon neutrality Other goal US China India Japan Russia South Africa Germany Brazil Eritrea Indonesia Mexico Republic of Korea Iran Turkey Australia Saudi Arabia Thailand Myanmar Spain Poland Ethiopia Morocco Costa Rica Tanzania Togo Note: Bubble sizes are proportional to population in 2010. Absolute cap Intensity goal Reduction from BAU Carbon neutrality Other goal No pledge

Sources: UNFCCC (2011b; 2013b); IEA (2012); UNDESA (2011).

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A spectrum of commitments?

Source: Educade.org

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Mitigation commitments can have multiple dimensions

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Approach to LULUCF accounting (if covered) Coverage of gases Coverage of sectors Choice of GWPs Headline number Choice of time frame

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“Bounded flexibility” for some dimensions?

Source: HDNaturePictures.com

• Time frame?
• GWP values?

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Ex-ante clarity of commitments

Absolute cap Intensity goal Reduction from BAU Carbon neutrality Other goal Time frame Base year GWPs or other GHG-equivalence metric Coverage of gases and sectors LULUCF accounting Units from market mechanisms BAU emissions (i.e. without action) Expected future emissions (i.e. with action) GDP projections Definition of carbon neutrality Conditions attached Explanation of ambition (science, equity) Source of finance and domestic policies

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2015 2020 2013 2014 Agreement of any bounded flexibility for commitments and ex-ante information to be provided Consultations on draft commitments Clarification and ratcheting-up of draft commitments Submission of draft commitments Possible further ratcheting-up of mitigation commitments after 2015 Discussions on ex-post accounting rules for measuring progress towards commitments 2015 agreement

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In Conclusion…..

UNFCCC

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Thank you!

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