ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2 0 1 3 Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2 0 1 3 Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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AC2014-Doc08 ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2 0 1 3 Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission EURATOM SUPPLY AGENCY Nuclear Fuel Market Observatory Sector Luxembourg, June 2014 1 Energy Structure of the presentation: - ESA survey - Dem and of Uranium -

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SLIDE 1

Energy

1

ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2 0 1 3

Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission EURATOM SUPPLY AGENCY

Nuclear Fuel Market Observatory Sector

Luxembourg, June 2014

AC2014-Doc08

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SLIDE 2

Energy

Structure of the presentation:

  • ESA survey
  • Dem and of Uranium
  • Supply of Uranium
  • Prices
  • Enrichm ent services
  • Security of Supply

2

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SLIDE 3

Energy

ESA survey

3

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SLIDE 4

Energy

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  • ESA survey

Questionnaire sent to the EU utilities in order to gather the data in the following areas:

  • EUP deliveries in 2013
  • Fuel loaded into reactors in 2013
  • Future requirements for NatU and SWU
  • NatU deliveries in 2013
  • NatU deliveries contracted for future years
  • SWU supply contracted for future years
  • Inventories in 2013
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SLIDE 5

Energy

EU nuclear utilities w hich have contributed to the 2 0 1 3 ESA Annual Report

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Magnox Ltd CEZ EDF & EDF Energy ENBW ENUSA EoNKK EPZ FORTUM I GNALI NA KOZLODUY KRSKO OKG PAKS RW E SLOVELEKT SNN-Nuclearelectrica SYNATOM TVO VATTENFALL

  • ESA survey
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SLIDE 6

Energy

Dem and of U

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SLIDE 7

Energy

EU demand for U

1 8 EU nuclear utilities 1 4 EU Mem ber states 1 3 1 EU-based nuclear reactors 4 reactors under construction ( Finland, France and Slovakia) 2 6 .4 % of EU electricity production ( data for 2 0 1 2 )

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  • Dem and of U
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SLIDE 8

Energy

2 0 1 3 URANI UM LOADED I NTO THE EU REACTORS

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2012 2013 % change Fuel Loaded (tLEU) 2.271 2.343 3.16%

Enrichment assay (%)

3.78 3.87

Feed NatU (tU)

15.767 17.175 8.9%

RepU (tU)

1.024 504

  • 50%

tSWU

11.803 12.617 6.9%

Tails assays (%)

0.24 0.24

  • Dem and of U
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SLIDE 9

Energy

  • Dem and of U

U contained in fuel loaded and NatU delivered to EU-28 Utilities in tonnes U, 2004-2013

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SLIDE 10

Energy

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  • Dem and of U

Usage of secondary sources in 2 0 1 3

Savings in Savings in MOX Fuel NatU Separative work (kg Pu fiss) (kg U) (SWU) total 2012 10.334 897.317 622.381 total 2013 11.120 1.047.000 740.000 2013/2012 change 786 149.683 117.619 2013/2012 % change

7.6% 16.6% 18.9%

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SLIDE 11

Energy

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2 0 1 3 URANI UM DELI VERED TO THE EU UTI LI TI ES

  • Dem and of U

2012 2013 % change Uranium delivered (tU) 18.639 17.023

  • 8.7%

Nr of deliveries 127 132 Long-term contracts (%) 96 93 Spot contracts (%) 4 7 EU share in global demand (%) 27 27

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SLIDE 12

Energy

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The EU future reactor requirem ents for U from 2 0 1 4 -2 0 3 3

2 % dow n from 2 0 1 2 1 % dow n from 2 0 1 2 3 % dow n from 2 0 1 2 1 % dow n from 2 0 1 2

Natural al ur uranium um — av averag age reactor

  • r req

equi uirem emen ents

2014–23 18 204 tU/year (gross) 16 292 tU/year (net) 2024–33 16 382 tU/year (gross) 14 935 tU/year (net) Enrich chment nt ser servic vices es — aver verage rea eactor tor req equir irem emen ents ts 2014–23 14 515 tSW/year (gross) 13 251 tSW/year (net) 2024–33 13 236 tSW/year (gross) 12 450 tSW/year (net)

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SLIDE 13

Energy

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EU Future reactor requirem ents ( U and SW U)

in tonnes U and SWU, 2014-2033

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SLIDE 14

Energy

U Supply

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SLIDE 15

Energy

Uranium Suppliers to EU Utilities in 2 0 1 3

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  • U Supply
  • Areva NC and Areva NP
  • BHP Billiton (formerly WMC)
  • CAMECO Inc. Corporation

USA

  • CNU
  • Cominak
  • Deutsche Bank
  • DIAMO
  • Energy US
  • ERA
  • Eurodif
  • INTERNEXCO
  • Intochuint
  • Aron
  • KAZATOMPROM
  • Nufcor International
  • NUKEM
  • Paladin Energy Ltd
  • Rio Tinto
  • Rossing Uranium
  • TENAM Corp.
  • TENEX
  • TVEL
  • UEM
  • UG
  • Uranium One
  • URENCO

26 suppliers

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SLIDE 16

Energy

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Natural uranium deliveries to the EU by origin in 2 0 1 3

  • U Supply
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SLIDE 17

Energy

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  • U Supply

Natural uranium deliveries by region in 2 0 1 3

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SLIDE 18

Energy

U Prices

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SLIDE 19

Energy

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  • U Prices

ESA U Price I ndices

  • ESA Spot U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices paid

by the EU utilities for U delivered under spot contracts in 2013

  • ESA Long-term U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices

paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under long-term contracts with deliveries in 2013

  • ESA MAC-3 U3O8 price: weighted average of U3O8 prices

paid by the EU utilities for U delivered only under newly signed long-term contracts i.e. signed/ amended within the last three years (2011-2013) with deliveries in 2013

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SLIDE 20

Energy

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  • U Prices
  • Deliveries database
  • made under Nat U or EUP purchasing contracts by EU utilities

during the reference year i.e. 2013

  • Currency Conversion
  • converted into EUR
  • ECB annual average exchange rates
  • ECB EUR/ USD (2013) = 1.3791 from 1.2848 in 2012
  • Unit Conversion
  • kg U in the chemical form U308, using conventional conversion

factors

  • ESA average conversion price
  • If included, deducted to obtain the net natural uranium price

as U308

  • ESA Conversion Price (2013) = $14.39/ kgU or €10.43/ kgU
  • ESA Conversion Price is based on the NatU long term contracts

ESA Prices Calculation Methodology

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SLIDE 21

Energy

21

  • U Prices

ESA Spot U3O8 prices

2012 2013 2013/2012 EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU 97,80 78,24

  • 20%

$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9 48,33 39,97

  • 15%
  • Based on spot contracts
  • 7% of total deliveries
  • 27 deliveries
  • Based on fixed prices or

index-based formulae

  • Deliveries accounted for

1.214 tonnes of uranium

  • Widely distributed: 69-110

€/ kgU or 35-56 $/ lbU3O8

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SLIDE 22

Energy

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  • U Prices

ESA Long-term U3O8 price

2012 2013 2013/2012 EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU 90,03 85,19

  • 8%

$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9 44,49 43,52

  • 1%
  • Based on long term

contracts

  • Contracts signed 9 years

earlier on average

  • 93% of total deliveries
  • 105 deliveries
  • Based on fixed prices or

index-based formulae

  • Deliveries accounted for

15.809 tonnes of uranium

  • Data widely scattered
  • 70% of distribution falling

into range: 58-107 € / kgU

  • r 30-55 $/ lb U3O8
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SLIDE 23

Energy

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  • U Prices

ESA ‘MAC-3 ’ Multiannual U3O8 price

2012 2013 2013/2012 EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU 103,42 84,66

  • 18%

$/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9 51,11 43,25

  • 15%
  • 15% of total

deliveries

  • 23 deliveries
  • Deliveries accounted

for 2.567 tonnes of uranium

  • Based on deliveries

made only under newly signed or newly amended multiannual contracts over the last 3 years

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SLIDE 24

Energy

ESA average price indices Historical data, 2 0 0 4 -2 0 1 3

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  • U Prices

29.20 40.98 55.70 83.45 85.19 26.14 121.80 77.96 107.43 78.24 13.97 21.60 29.88 44.68 43.52 12.51 64.21 41.83 57.52 39.97 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Multiannual €/kgU Spot €/kgU Multiannual US$/lbU308 Spot US$/lbU3O8

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SLIDE 25

Energy

Enrichm ent services

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SLIDE 26

Energy

EU dem and in 2 0 1 3

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  • Enrichm ent services

2012 2013 2013/2012 tSWU

12.724 11.678

  • 8%

EUP tU

2.071 1.953

  • 6%

Uranium feed tU

17.131 15.371

  • 10%

AV enrichment assay (%)

4,26 4,05

AV tails assay

(%)

0,25 0,24

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SLIDE 27

Energy

Suppliers to EU Utilities

27

  • Enrichm ent services

Enricher Quantities in Share in Quantities in Share in Change

  • ver 2012

(%) 2012 (tSWU) 2012 (%) 2013 (tSWU) 2013 (%)

AREVA + URENCO (EU)

7.211 57% 6.956 60%

  • 4%

TENEX/TVEL (Russia)

5.218 41%

(includes 10% of grandfathered)

4.249 36%

(includes 8,5% of grandfathered)

  • 19%

USEC (USA)

174 1% 354 3% 104%

Others

122 1% 119 1%

  • 2%

Total 12.724 100% 11.678 100%

  • 8%
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SLIDE 28

Energy

Security of supply

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SLIDE 29

Energy

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  • SECURI TY OF SUPPLY
  • I nventories
  • Diversification of supply
  • Forw ard thinking
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SLIDE 30

Energy

  • Security of supply

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EU Uranium inventories in 2 0 1 3 3% up from 2012

Cover 3 years of the EU gross reactor requirem ents

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SLIDE 31

Energy

ESA inventory definition:

Total inventory includes natural uranium contained in concentrate ( "yellow cake") and natural uranium equivalent contained in UF6 , LEU or as en unused fabricated fuel. I t includes borrow ed m aterial, but excludes m aterial loaned to third parties or held on behalf of third parties. I t includes pipeline m aterial and can be held at any point of the fuel cycle, prior to loading in the reactor

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  • Security of supply
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SLIDE 32

Energy

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  • Security of supply

Nuclear pow er share of total electricity production in the EU in 2 0 1 3

73% 52% 52% 51% 43% 36% 34% 33% 31% 20% 20% 18% 15% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% France Slovakia Belgium Hungary Sweden Czech Republic Slovenia Finland Bulgaria Romania Spain United Kingdom Germany Netherlands

100 % dependent on the Russian fuel deliveries

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SLIDE 33

Energy

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Long-term contractual coverage

for U & SW U, 2 0 1 4 -2 0 2 2

  • Security of supply
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SLIDE 34

Energy

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  • Security of supply

ESA's forecast of Net generating capacity in the EU by type of a reactor in MW – 2 0 1 3 -2 0 3 2 Possible increase of net uranium requirem ents by 2 5 0 0 tU/ year after 2 0 2 5

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SLIDE 35

Energy

Thank you for your attention

Mr Dariusz KOZAK

European Com m ission EURATOM Supply Agency Nuclear Fuel Cycle Observatory Sector e-mail: Dariusz.Kozak@ec.europa.eu http://ec.europa.eu/euratom/index_en.html

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