AC2014-Doc08 ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2 0 1 3 Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission EURATOM SUPPLY AGENCY Nuclear Fuel Market Observatory Sector Luxembourg, June 2014 1 Energy
Structure of the presentation: - ESA survey - Dem and of Uranium - Supply of Uranium - Prices - Enrichm ent services - Security of Supply 2 Energy
ESA survey 3 Energy
• ESA survey Questionnaire sent to the EU utilities in order to gather the data in the following areas: • EUP deliveries in 2013 • Fuel loaded into reactors in 2013 • Future requirements for NatU and SWU • NatU deliveries in 2013 • NatU deliveries contracted for future years • SWU supply contracted for future years • Inventories in 2013 4 Energy
• ESA survey EU nuclear utilities w hich have contributed to the 2 0 1 3 ESA Annual Report Magnox Ltd KOZLODUY CEZ KRSKO EDF & EDF Energy OKG ENBW PAKS ENUSA RW E EoNKK SLOVELEKT EPZ SNN-Nuclearelectrica FORTUM SYNATOM I GNALI NA TVO VATTENFALL 5 Energy
Dem and of U 6 Energy
• Dem and of U EU demand for U 1 8 EU nuclear utilities 1 4 EU Mem ber states 1 3 1 EU-based nuclear reactors 4 reactors under construction ( Finland, France and Slovakia) 2 6 .4 % of EU electricity production ( data for 2 0 1 2 ) 7 Energy
• Dem and of U 2 0 1 3 URANI UM LOADED I NTO THE EU REACTORS 2012 2013 % change Fuel Loaded (tLEU) 2.271 2.343 3.16% Enrichment assay (%) 3.78 3.87 15.767 17.175 8.9% NatU (tU) Feed 1.024 504 -50% RepU (tU) tSWU 11.803 12.617 6.9% Tails assays (%) 0.24 0.24 8 Energy
• Dem and of U U contained in fuel loaded and NatU delivered to EU-28 Utilities in tonnes U, 2004-2013 9 Energy
• Dem and of U Usage of secondary sources in 2 0 1 3 Savings in Savings in MOX Fuel NatU Separative work (kg Pu fiss) (kg U) (SWU) total 2012 10.334 897.317 622.381 11 . 120 total 2013 1.047.000 740.000 2013/2012 change 786 149.683 117.619 2013/2012 % 7.6% 16.6% 18.9% change 10 Energy
• Dem and of U 2 0 1 3 URANI UM DELI VERED TO THE EU UTI LI TI ES 2012 2013 % change Uranium delivered (tU) 18.639 17.023 -8.7% Nr of deliveries 127 132 Long-term contracts (%) 96 93 Spot contracts (%) 4 7 EU share in global demand (%) 27 27 11 Energy
The EU future reactor requirem ents for U from 2 0 1 4 -2 0 3 3 Natural al ur uranium um — av averag age reactor or req equi uirem emen ents 2 % dow n 18 204 tU/year (gross) 16 292 tU/year (net) from 2 0 1 2 2014–23 3 % dow n 16 382 tU/year (gross) 14 935 tU/year (net) 2024–33 from 2 0 1 2 Enrich chment nt ser servic vices es — aver verage rea eactor tor req equir irem emen ents ts 1 % dow n from 14 515 tSW/year (gross) 13 251 tSW/year (net) 2 0 1 2 2014–23 1 % dow n 13 236 tSW/year (gross) 12 450 tSW/year (net) 2024–33 from 2 0 1 2 12 Energy
EU Future reactor requirem ents ( U and SW U) in tonnes U and SWU, 2014-2033 13 Energy
U Supply 14 Energy
• U Supply Uranium Suppliers to EU Utilities in 2 0 1 3 • Aron • Areva NC and Areva NP • KAZATOMPROM • BHP Billiton (formerly WMC) • Nufcor International • CAMECO Inc. Corporation • NUKEM USA • Paladin Energy Ltd • CNU • Rio Tinto • Cominak • Rossing Uranium • Deutsche Bank • TENAM Corp. • DIAMO • TENEX • Energy US • TVEL • ERA 26 suppliers • UEM • Eurodif • UG • INTERNEXCO • Uranium One • Intochuint 15 • URENCO Energy
• U Supply Natural uranium deliveries to the EU by origin in 2 0 1 3 16 Energy
• U Supply Natural uranium deliveries by region in 2 0 1 3 17 Energy
U Prices 18 Energy
• U Prices ESA U Price I ndices • ESA Spot U 3 O 8 price: weighted average of U 3 O 8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under spot contracts in 2013 • ESA Long-term U 3 O 8 price: weighted average of U 3 O 8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under long-term contracts with deliveries in 2013 • ESA MAC-3 U 3 O 8 price: weighted average of U 3 O 8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered only under newly signed long-term contracts i.e. signed/ amended within the last three years (2011-2013) with deliveries in 2013 19 Energy
• U Prices ESA Prices Calculation Methodology • Deliveries database o made under Nat U or EUP purchasing contracts by EU utilities during the reference year i.e. 2013 • Currency Conversion o converted into EUR o ECB annual average exchange rates o ECB EUR/ USD (2013) = 1.3791 from 1.2848 in 2012 • Unit Conversion o kg U in the chemical form U 3 0 8 , using conventional conversion factors • ESA average conversion price o If included, deducted to obtain the net natural uranium price as U 3 0 8 o ESA Conversion Price (2013) = $14.39/ kgU or €10.43/ kgU 20 o ESA Conversion Price is based on the NatU long term contracts Energy
• U Prices ESA Spot U 3 O 8 prices • Based on spot contracts • 7% of total deliveries 2012 2013 2013/2012 • 27 deliveries EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU • Based on fixed prices or 97,80 78,24 -20% index-based formulae $/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9 • Deliveries accounted for 48,33 39,97 -15% 1.214 tonnes of uranium • Widely distributed: 69-110 €/ kgU or 35-56 $/ lbU3O8 21 Energy
• U Prices ESA Long-term U 3 O 8 price • Based on long term contracts • Contracts signed 9 years earlier on average • 93% of total deliveries 2012 2013 2013/2012 • 105 deliveries EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU • Based on fixed prices or 90,03 85,19 -8% index-based formulae $/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9 • Deliveries accounted for 15.809 tonnes of uranium 44,49 43,52 -1% • Data widely scattered • 70% of distribution falling into range: 58-107 € / kgU 22 or 30-55 $/ lb U3O8 Energy
• U Prices ESA ‘MAC-3 ’ Multiannual U 3 O 8 price • 15% of total deliveries • 23 deliveries 2012 2013 2013/2012 • Deliveries accounted EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU for 2.567 tonnes of uranium 103,42 84,66 -18% • Based on deliveries $/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9 made only under 51,11 43,25 -15% newly signed or newly amended multiannual contracts over the last 3 years 23 Energy
• U Prices ESA average price indices Historical data, 2 0 0 4 -2 0 1 3 140.00 Multiannual €/kgU 121.80 Spot €/kgU 120.00 Multiannual US$/lbU308 107.43 Spot US$/lbU3O8 100.00 85.19 83.45 77.96 80.00 78.24 64.21 55.70 57.52 60.00 44.68 43.52 40.98 41.83 40.00 29.20 39.97 29.88 21.60 26.14 20.00 13.97 12.51 0.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 24 Energy
Enrichm ent services 25 Energy
• Enrichm ent services EU dem and in 2 0 1 3 2012 2013 2013/2012 12.724 11.678 -8% tSWU 2.071 1.953 -6% EUP tU Uranium 17.131 15.371 -10% feed tU AV enrichment 4,26 4,05 assay (%) AV tails assay 0,25 0,24 (%) 26 Energy
• Enrichm ent services Suppliers to EU Utilities Enricher Quantities in Share in Quantities Share in Change in over 2012 (%) 2012 (tSWU) 2012 (%) 2013 2013 (%) (tSWU) AREVA + URENCO (EU) 7.211 57% 6.956 60% -4% TENEX/TVEL 36% 41% (Russia) 5.218 4.249 -19% (includes 8,5% of (includes 10% of grandfathered) grandfathered) USEC (USA) 174 1% 354 3% 104% Others 122 1% 119 1% -2% Total 12.724 100% 11.678 100% -8% 27 Energy
Security of supply 28 Energy
• SECURI TY OF SUPPLY • I nventories • Diversification of supply • Forw ard thinking 29 Energy
• Security of supply EU Uranium inventories in 2 0 1 3 3% up from 2012 Cover 3 years of the EU gross reactor requirem ents 30 Energy
• Security of supply ESA inventory definition: Total inventory includes natural uranium contained in concentrate ( "yellow cake") and natural uranium equivalent contained in UF6 , LEU or as en unused fabricated fuel. I t includes borrow ed m aterial, but excludes m aterial loaned to third parties or held on behalf of third parties. I t includes pipeline m aterial and can be held at any point of the fuel cycle, prior to loading in the reactor 31 Energy
• Security of supply Nuclear pow er share of total electricity production in the EU in 2 0 1 3 Netherlands 3% 100 % dependent on the Russian fuel deliveries Germany 15% United Kingdom 18% Spain 20% Romania 20% Bulgaria 31% Finland 33% Slovenia 34% Czech Republic 36% Sweden 43% Hungary 51% Belgium 52% Slovakia 52% France 73% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 32 Energy
• Security of supply Long-term contractual coverage for U & SW U, 2 0 1 4 -2 0 2 2 33 Energy
• Security of supply ESA's forecast of Net generating capacity in the EU by type of a reactor in MW – 2 0 1 3 -2 0 3 2 Possible increase of net uranium requirem ents by 2 5 0 0 tU/ year after 2 0 2 5 34 Energy
Thank you for your attention Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Com m ission EURATOM Supply Agency Nuclear Fuel Cycle Observatory Sector e-mail: Dariusz.Kozak@ec.europa.eu http://ec.europa.eu/euratom/index_en.html 35 Energy
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