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Environmental pillar of migration: Introduction to the topic CAR - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Towards better evidence on migration and development in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Capacity-building workshop on migration statistics Almaty, 31. Oct. 2013 Environmental pillar of migration: Introduction to the topic CAR Tamer Afifi United

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Environmental pillar of migration: Introduction to the topicCAR

Tamer Afifi

United Nations University Insitute for Environment and Human Security Bonn

Towards better evidence on migration and development in Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Capacity-building workshop on migration statistics Almaty, 31. Oct. 2013

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Environmental migrants No agreement

1985 UN-Environment Program (El-Hinnawi): "……those people who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption . . . that jeopardised their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life……."

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Environmental migrants No agreement

IOM working definition (2007): “Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are

  • bliged to leave their habitual homes, or

choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad”

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Environmental migrants No agreement

Environmentally Motivated Migrants who “may leave” a steadily deteriorating environment to pre- empt the worst. Environmentally Forced Migrants who “have to leave” to avoid inevitable and grave consequences

  • f environmental degradation

Environmental Emergency Migrants who “flee” the worst of an environmental impact to save their lives.

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www.each-for.eu

Tajikistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Egypt Turkey Mozambique Vietnam Morocco Ghana Senegal Niger Dominican Republic, Haiti Mexico Ecuador Argentina Russia China Tuvalu Bangladesh Spain The Balkans Western Sahara Tajikistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Egypt Turkey Mozambique Vietnam Morocco Ghana Senegal Niger Dominican Republic, Haiti Mexico Ecuador Argentina Russia China Tuvalu Bangladesh Spain The Balkans Western Sahara

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social cultural (Forced) human displacement

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Main outcomes:

  • 1. Food security is a key factor
  • 2. Climatic/environmental problems are often root causes
  • 3. Most of the migration is internal
  • 5. What is national is becoming international migration
  • 6. What is seasonal/temporary is becoming long-term/permanent migration
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Gravity model:

  • The impact of environmental degradation on migration between countries pair

wise.

  • 13 global environmental factors.
  • Other 13 geographic, economic, political, social, historical and cultural indicators.
  • 172 countries.
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Horn of Africa Study

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Horn of Africa Study

Key findings

  • 1. Discernible shifts in weather in the home countries over the past 10–15 years.
  • 2. Severe impacts on farming and livestock husbandry in the homelands of the refugees
  • 3. Weather conditions as a multiplier/magnifier of pre-existing conflicts in countries of origin.
  • 4. Wide range of traditional and innovative adaptation strategies in situ.
  • 5. Human movements were only the last resort.
  • 6. Movements due to pure climatic issues were rather internal and temporary.
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Partners and Donors

With the support of: and

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Geographic Diversity: 8 Countries

8 case studies

Source: CARE France

Duration: 2011-2013 Fieldwork Summer 2011

  • Winter 2012
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Case Study Reports

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OBJECTIVES

  • 1. To understand how rainfall variability,

food security and human mobility interact today

  • 2. To understand how these factors might

interact in coming decades as the impact

  • f climate change begins to be felt more

strongly Project objectives & scope

  • 3. To work with communities to identify ways to manage rainfall

variability, food/livelihood insecurity, and migration.

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Field Research Methodology* Expert interviews Participatory Research Approach Household surveys

Resource map, Tanzania. Source: Afifi, 2012

_______________________________

*See Rademacher-Schulz et al. (2012)

Ranking of coping strategies, Thailand. Source: Sakdapolrak, 2008 Seasonal calendar, Peru. Source: Milan, 2011

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Rademacher-Schulz, Christina, Tamer Afifi, Koko Warner, Thérèse Rosenfeld, Andrea Milan, Benjamin Etzold and Patrick Sakdapolrak (2012): “Rainfall variability, food security and human mobility. An approach for generating empirical evidence.” Intersections No. 10. Bonn: UNU-EHS.

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Global Findings based on 8 case studies

Source: Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow, 2012

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Resilience to climatic stressors Vulnerability to climatic stressors

Migration improves HH resilience Migration used to survive, but not flourish Migration erosive coping strategy Migration not an

  • ption: trapped

populations

  • Economy: poor
  • Adaptation options:

access to livelihoods

  • ptions &assets (social,

economic, political),

  • Education: Children have

3-5 years more education than parents

  • Migrant: early 20s, single;

temporal migration

  • Remittances: education,

livelihood diversification, health

  • Economy: chronically

food insecure, landless, female -headed HH

  • Adaptation options:

insufficient assets to adapt locally or through migration

  • Education: More HHs

have low or no education / skill levels

  • Migrant: not feasible
  • Remittances: none.

Abandoned / trapped populations

  • Economy: landless
  • Adaptation options: few

adaptation options in situ, inability to diversify

  • Education: All HH

members have low or no education / skill levels

  • Migrant: HH Head, mid

40s, migration in hunger season

  • Remittances: Partial

success in obtaining food

  • r money to buy food
  • Economy: land scarce
  • Adaptation options: less

access to assets & institutions for support

  • Education: Children have

same education level as parents

  • Migrant: HH Head, mid

40s, migration in hunger season

  • Remittances: Success in
  • btaining food or money

to buy food

4 household profiles

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Potential future relationships among rainfall variability, food security and migration (Tanzania)

  • 1.00
  • 0.50

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 Scenario 1 (drying) Scenario 2 (wetting) Scenario 3 (extreme wetting) Scenario 4 (extreme drying)

Normalised difference rate of vulnerable migration

Source: Dr. Christopher Smith, 2012 UNU-EHS cdsmith@ehs.unu.edu

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11/4/2013 21

Conclusions

  • General perception of climatic changes in the form of rainfall variability
  • Negative impacts on agricultural production (food and livelihood insecurity)
  • Migration characteristics
  • Migration in response to climatic problems/risks (nature of relationship)
  • Household characteristics matter
  • Future pressure on rainfall-dependent livelihoods and its impact on human

mobility

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Warner, Koko, Tamer Afifi, Kevin Henry, Tonya Rawe, Christopher Smith, and Alex De Sherbinin (2012): “Where the Rain Falls: Climate change, food and livelihood security, and migration.” Global Policy Report. Bonn: UNU-EHS.

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Thank you for your attention

Contact:

Dr Tamer Afifi Associate Academic Officer UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Bonn Tel + 49-228-815-0232 afifi@ehs.unu.edu www.ehs.unu.edu http://wheretherainfalls.org