Enviro-RISKS: Overview of Applications for Short- and Long-Term - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Enviro-RISKS: Overview of Applications for Short- and Long-Term Modelling and Assessment for Atmospheric Pollutants

Alexander Mahura, Alexander Baklanov, Jens Havskøv Sorensen

Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen, Denmark ENVIROMIS-2008, 28 June – 5 July 2008, Tomsk, Russia Workshop on Man-made Environmental Risks (Enviro-RISKS FP6 Project)

Main Goals and Objectives

Main Goals

Development (always continued) of approaches in risk assessment and mapping based on multilevel integration of the long- and short-term trajectory and dispersion modelling results.

Specific Objectives

Study applicability of combinations of approaches and tools used in probabilistic risk and cases studies analyses; Perform short- and long-term atmospheric transport and deposition modelling in

• rder to provide for further integration into the research projects for multilevel risk

assessment (in particular, with employing of the GIS technology).

MODELLING LONG-TERM SHORT-TERM Trajectory Dispersion Dispersion Indicators based on Trajectory Modelling Indicators based on Dispersion Modelling Integration of Modelling Results, Mapping and Analysis Multi-level Probabilistic Analysis

General Scheme for Assessment

MODELLING Probabilistic Approach Case Study Approach Multi-Level Databases

Probabilistic Indicators of Impact: Trajectory Modelling

• Atmospheric Transport Pathways,
• Airflow Probability Fields,
• Fast Transport Probability Fields,
• Typical Transport Time Fields,
• Maximum Reaching Distance,
• Maximum Possible Impact Zone,
• Precipitation Factor /Relative Humidity Fields.

Probabilistic Indicators of Impact: Dispersion Modelling

Kandalaksha: Aluminum Plant

• Air Concentration,
• Time Integrated Air Concentration,
• Dry Deposition and Wet Deposition,
• Total Deposition Patterns

Models and Approach

MODELS

Models used for Meteorological Modelling - HIRLAM (HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) at fine scales uses BCs from NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast), and HIRLAM at lower resolutions Models used Trajectory and Dispersion modelling – DERMA - Danish Emergency Response Model for Atmosphere, HYSPLIT - HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model

APPROACH

• Selection of risk sites (of chemical, nuclear, biological ) and accidental releases;
• Short- and long-term modelling of concentrations/ depositions/ consequences/

risks/etc. during atmospheric transport and deposition of pollutants. Computing: supported by High Performance Computing (HPC) grants of the Danish Meteorological Institute (+use of NEC-SX6 & CRAY XT-5 supercomputing facilities) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, Boulder, USA)

Institutions/ Organizations:

• KazGeoKosmos, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan;
• Kola Science Center RAS, Apatity, Russia;
• International Institut for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria;
• Russian State Hydrometeorological University (RSHU), St. Petersburg, Russia;
• SCERT, Tomsk, Russia;
• Khlopin Radium Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia;
• Institute of Computational Modelling Siberian Division RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia;
• Danish Technological University (DTU);
• Ural Division RAS, Ekaterinburg, Russia;
• Hydrometeorological Research Institute of UzHydromet (NIGMI);
• Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark

Enviro-RISKS Groups: Atmospheric Pollution and Risks (APR) - Penenko, Baklanov Info-Systems, Integration and Synthesis (ISIS) - Gordov, Zakarin

Enviro-RISKS: Collaboration with Respect to Modelling

Studying of Ecological Consequences of Nuclear Explosions at the former Semipalatinsk Test Site

Zakarin et al., 2006-7 - Pres. at ENVIROMIS-06, CITIES-07

Balakay, 2007 – PhD Thesis

• Dispersion long-term modelling for caesium

concentration and deposition fields,

• Integration of modelling results using GIS technology,
• Evaluation of dominated atmospheric transport

patterns from the testing site area.

Impact Evaluation from Long-Term Emissions

• f Cu-Ni Smelters on the North-West and Siberian

Federal Districts

• Dispersion long-term modelling for

sulphates concentration and deposition fields,

• Evaluation of deposited amounts of

pollutants during atmospheric transport,

• Evaluation possible pollution levels in

populated urban areas (large cities).

Svetlov et al., 2007-8; Mahura et al., 2008 – Pres. at CITIES-07 and “EcoProblems of the North”-08

Radionuclide Atmospheric Transport from Nuclear Risk Sites in the Russian Far East and Eastern Coast of China

Yao et al., 2006 – Pres. at 2nd AOCRP, China

• Short- and long-term simulations for

radionuclides concentrations and deposition fields from risk sites employing both trajectory and dispersion modelling,

• Estimation of general and specific

atmospheric transport patterns resulted from hypothetical accidental releases.

Tianwan Plant Vladivostok Risk Site Mahura et al., 2006 – EnvMon&Assess

Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport for Noble Gases Monitoring in North-West Russia

• Episodic measurements of Xe and Kr,
• Trajectory short-term modelling for dates

with elevated levels,

• Dispersion long-term modelling for

probabilistic airflow fields.

Petrova et al., 2008 – Pres. at ENVIROMIS-08

Risk Assessment of Plants Impact Employing Long-Term Dispersion Modelling

• Dispersion long-term modelling for 90Sr, 131I, 137Cs

concentration and deposition fields from NPPs,

• GIS integration of dispersion modelling results,
• Calculation of individual and collective doses due to

inhalation, ingestion, from the contaminated cloud and surface,

• Estimation of risks and consequences on population

and environment of the Northern Europe and North- West Russia.

Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (Lithuania), Cs-137

Mahura et al., 2006-7-8 – Pres. EnvRad, EMS, CITIES-07

DERMA and K-Models in Probabilistic Long- Range Atmospheric Transport Assessment

DERMA-model K-model Rel.Difference Lauritzen et al., 2006-7-8 – Pres. at EMS, EnvRad Confs., J. EnvRad, AtmEnv

• Long-term modelling for 137Cs

concentration and deposition fields from risk sites employing both models,

• Data analysis: regression, statistics,

corrections to K-model, applicability, …

• Estimation of atmospheric transport on

continental and hemispheric scales.

Chernobyl Plant. Sellafield Processing Plant.

Probabilistic Risk Mapping for Nordic Countries employing GIS Technology

• Estimate possible risks to environment and population in the Nordic countries

considering long- and short-term emissions and long-term environment impact from large accidental sites, industrial complexes, metropolitan areas. taking into account:

• Social Geophysical Factors : proximity to risk sites, population density, critical

groups, ecological vulnerability, risk perception, preparedness of safety measures, economical and technical means, etc;

• Probabilities : of accidents at risk sites, atmospheric transport toward the area of

interest, precipitation and deposition over the area of interest, etc.

For Scandinavian countries’ population (Kola NPP) Rigina et al., 2006+ Pres. at EMS, EnvRad Confs.

Contributions to Other Studies …

ICE-CORE (2006+): Identification of sources of oxygen isotope ratio deposited at Greenland ice-drilling sites - study whether variations are of purely local origin or integrated effect of a more global circulation pattern; quantify potential source areas; calculations - for selected years representing typical circulation patterns, such as positive/negative NAO phase; POLLEN (2007+): Identification of potential source regions for pollen due to long-range transport – study whether elevated events in birch pollen counts are related to local sources or long-distance transport; identify source regions; calculations – for specific dates, over 20+ yr period of observations, with elevated levels and long- term simulations to identify dominant transport patterns; SHPITSBERGEN (2008+): Identification of dominant atmospheric transport patterns for potential transport of pollutants in the Arctic – study general atmospheric patterns, identify potential remote region and local sources for air pollutants; calculations – log-term multi-year simulations of atmospheric transport patterns; forward and inverse modelling;

Conclusions

• estimation of influence from continuous long-term sources of chemical pollution for

the North-West and Arctic territories of Russia, Fennoscandia, Ural and Siberia Federal Districts, Greenland, etc.;

• integration of 2D dispersion modelling results into GIS environment for estimation
• f levels of potential impact, consequences, and possible contamination of the

environments as well as population;

• identification of possible sources, pathways of atmospheric transport, and affected

areas based on continuous monitoring and short-term episodic measurements of selected noble gases (Xe, Kr) from the European and Russian nuclear power plants;

• retrospective analysis of testing at the Novaya Zemlya (Russia) and Semipalatinsk

polygon (Kazakhstan) with respected to possibilities of atmospheric transport to the geographical regions;

• combined analysis of airflow probabilistic fields for identification of potential

source-receptor relationship for atmospheric pollutants and pollen.

Applicability

• applications for climate change, environmental pollution, dust events, volcano

eruptions, natural hazards, etc.;

• estimation of informative quality of monitoring systems and assessment of

environmental quality, efficiency of environmental protection measures;

• evaluation of potential source risk sites for regional socio-economic planning and

sustainable regional development;

• estimation of potential risk and vulnerability of regions, consequences analysis,

probabilistic assessment of local-, regional-, and long-range transport of pollution resulted from short-term accidental and continuous routine releases or discharges of pollution from NCB (nuclear, chemical, biological) and natural hazard sites;

• during evaluation and decision-making process for construction of a new facility or

complex of enterprises posing potential risk of NCB contamination for neighboring regions, environment, and population;

• improvement in planning the emergency response and decision-making to potential

accidental releases from risk site of NBC danger.

Acknowledgments

All teams involved into Enviro-RISKS Project with respect to using of the modelling results. Computing: DMI Computer Services and NCAR Scientific Computing Division. Financial support: EU FP6, NorFA, NARP, high performance computing grants.

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