Enviro-RISKS: Overview of Applications for Short- and Long-Term Modelling and Assessment for Atmospheric Pollutants Alexander Mahura, Alexander Baklanov, Jens Havsk ø v Sorensen Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen, Denmark ENVIROMIS-2008, 28 June – 5 July 2008, Tomsk, Russia Workshop on Man-made Environmental Risks (Enviro-RISKS FP6 Project)
Main Goals and Objectives Main Goals � Development (always continued) of approaches in risk assessment and mapping based on multilevel integration of the long- and short-term trajectory and dispersion modelling results. Specific Objectives � Study applicability of combinations of approaches and tools used in probabilistic risk and cases studies analyses; � Perform short- and long-term atmospheric transport and deposition modelling in order to provide for further integration into the research projects for multilevel risk assessment (in particular, with employing of the GIS technology).
General Scheme for Assessment Case Study Probabilistic Approach MODELLING MODELLING Approach LONG-TERM SHORT-TERM Trajectory Dispersion Dispersion Multi-level Probabilistic Analysis Indicators based on Indicators based on Trajectory Modelling Dispersion Modelling Multi-Level Databases Integration of Modelling Results, Mapping and Analysis
Probabilistic Indicators of Impact: Trajectory Modelling • Atmospheric Transport Pathways, • Airflow Probability Fields, • Fast Transport Probability Fields, • Typical Transport Time Fields, • Maximum Reaching Distance, • Maximum Possible Impact Zone, • Precipitation Factor /Relative Humidity Fields.
Probabilistic Indicators of Impact: Dispersion Modelling • Air Concentration, • Time Integrated Air Concentration, • Dry Deposition and Wet Deposition, • Total Deposition Patterns Kandalaksha: Aluminum Plant
� � Models and Approach MODELS Models used for Meteorological Modelling - HIRLAM (HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model) at fine scales uses BCs from NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast), and HIRLAM at lower resolutions Models used Trajectory and Dispersion modelling – DERMA - Danish Emergency Response Model for Atmosphere, HYSPLIT - HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model Computing: supported by High Performance Computing (HPC) grants of the Danish Meteorological Institute (+use of NEC-SX6 & CRAY XT-5 supercomputing facilities) and National Center for Atmospheric APPROACH Research (NCAR, Boulder, USA) Selection of risk sites (of chemical, nuclear, biological ) and accidental releases; Short- and long-term modelling of concentrations/ depositions/ consequences/ risks/etc. during atmospheric transport and deposition of pollutants.
Enviro-RISKS: Collaboration with Respect to Modelling Institutions/ Organizations: • KazGeoKosmos, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan; • Kola Science Center RAS, Apatity, Russia; • International Institut for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; • Russian State Hydrometeorological University (RSHU), St. Petersburg, Russia; • SCERT, Tomsk, Russia; • Khlopin Radium Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia; • Institute of Computational Modelling Siberian Division RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia; • Danish Technological University (DTU); • Ural Division RAS, Ekaterinburg, Russia; • Hydrometeorological Research Institute of UzHydromet (NIGMI); • Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark Enviro-RISKS Groups: Atmospheric Pollution and Risks (APR) - Penenko, Baklanov Info-Systems, Integration and Synthesis (ISIS) - Gordov, Zakarin
Studying of Ecological Consequences of Nuclear Explosions at the former Semipalatinsk Test Site • Dispersion long-term modelling for caesium concentration and deposition fields, • Integration of modelling results using GIS technology, • Evaluation of dominated atmospheric transport patterns from the testing site area. Zakarin et al., 2006-7 - Pres. at ENVIROMIS-06, CITIES-07 Balakay, 2007 – PhD Thesis
Impact Evaluation from Long-Term Emissions of Cu-Ni Smelters on the North-West and Siberian Federal Districts • Dispersion long-term modelling for sulphates concentration and deposition fields, • Evaluation of deposited amounts of pollutants during atmospheric transport, • Evaluation possible pollution levels in populated urban areas (large cities). Svetlov et al., 2007-8; Mahura et al., 2008 – Pres. at CITIES-07 and “EcoProblems of the North”-08
Radionuclide Atmospheric Transport from Nuclear Risk Sites in the Russian Far East and Eastern Coast of China • Short- and long-term simulations for radionuclides concentrations and deposition fields from risk sites employing both trajectory and dispersion modelling, • Estimation of general and specific atmospheric transport patterns resulted from Vladivostok hypothetical accidental releases. Risk Site Tianwan Plant Yao et al., 2006 – Pres. at 2 nd AOCRP, China Mahura et al., 2006 – EnvMon&Assess
Evaluation of Atmospheric Transport for Noble Gases Monitoring in North-West Russia • Episodic measurements of Xe and Kr, • Trajectory short-term modelling for dates with elevated levels, • Dispersion long-term modelling for probabilistic airflow fields. Petrova et al., 2008 – Pres. at ENVIROMIS-08
Risk Assessment of Plants Impact Employing Long-Term Dispersion Modelling Dispersion long-term modelling for 90 Sr, 131 I, 137 Cs • concentration and deposition fields from NPPs, • GIS integration of dispersion modelling results, • Calculation of individual and collective doses due to inhalation, ingestion, from the contaminated cloud and surface, • Estimation of risks and consequences on population and environment of the Northern Europe and North- West Russia. Mahura et al., 2006-7-8 – Pres. EnvRad, EMS, Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant (Lithuania), Cs-137 CITIES-07
DERMA and K-Models in Probabilistic Long- Range Atmospheric Transport Assessment Long-term modelling for 137 Cs • Chernobyl Plant . concentration and deposition fields from risk sites employing both models, • Data analysis: regression, statistics, corrections to K-model, applicability, … • Estimation of atmospheric transport on continental and hemispheric scales. Lauritzen et al., 2006-7-8 – Pres. at EMS, EnvRad Confs., J. EnvRad, AtmEnv Sellafield Processing Plant . DERMA-model Rel.Difference K-model
Probabilistic Risk Mapping for Nordic Countries employing GIS Technology • Estimate possible risks to environment and population in the Nordic countries considering long- and short-term emissions and long-term environment impact from large accidental sites, industrial complexes, metropolitan areas. taking into account: • Social Geophysical Factors : proximity to risk sites, population density, critical groups, ecological vulnerability, risk perception, preparedness of safety measures, economical and technical means, etc; • Probabilities : of accidents at risk sites, atmospheric transport toward the area of interest, precipitation and deposition over the area of interest, etc. For Scandinavian countries’ population (Kola NPP) Rigina et al., 2006+ Pres. at EMS, EnvRad Confs.
Contributions to Other Studies … ICE-CORE (2006+): Identification of sources of oxygen isotope ratio deposited at Greenland ice-drilling sites - study whether variations are of purely local origin or integrated effect of a more global circulation pattern; quantify potential source areas; calculations - for selected years representing typical circulation patterns, such as positive/negative NAO phase; POLLEN (2007+): Identification of potential source regions for pollen due to long-range transport – study whether elevated events in birch pollen counts are related to local sources or long-distance transport; identify source regions; calculations – for specific dates, over 20+ yr period of observations, with elevated levels and long- term simulations to identify dominant transport patterns; SHPITSBERGEN (2008+): Identification of dominant atmospheric transport patterns for potential transport of pollutants in the Arctic – study general atmospheric patterns, identify potential remote region and local sources for air pollutants; calculations – log-term multi-year simulations of atmospheric transport patterns; forward and inverse modelling;
Conclusions • estimation of influence from continuous long-term sources of chemical pollution for the North-West and Arctic territories of Russia, Fennoscandia, Ural and Siberia Federal Districts, Greenland, etc.; • integration of 2D dispersion modelling results into GIS environment for estimation of levels of potential impact, consequences, and possible contamination of the environments as well as population; • identification of possible sources, pathways of atmospheric transport, and affected areas based on continuous monitoring and short-term episodic measurements of selected noble gases (Xe, Kr) from the European and Russian nuclear power plants; • retrospective analysis of testing at the Novaya Zemlya (Russia) and Semipalatinsk polygon (Kazakhstan) with respected to possibilities of atmospheric transport to the geographical regions; • combined analysis of airflow probabilistic fields for identification of potential source-receptor relationship for atmospheric pollutants and pollen.
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