ENTATION to ev evaluation tion societ ety y ON ON : : PRE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ENTATION to ev evaluation tion societ ety y ON ON : : PRE RESENTATION NDP DP MI MID-TERM ERM REVIEW EW FINDI DINGS NGS AND D RECO COMME MMENDATION DATIONS S BY: dhizaala aala. . S. S. moses es Head monitoring and evaluation,
PRE RESENTATION ENTATION to ev
evaluation tion societ ety y ON
ON:
:
NDP DP MI MID-TERM ERM REVIEW EW FINDI DINGS NGS AND D RECO COMME MMENDATION DATIONS S
BY: dhizaala
aala. . S.
es Head monitoring and evaluation, npa
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requirement under the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework adopted by Government in 2007; and under the NDP itself
completed in December 2013
two firms: Delta & Reev Consult with 6 local & 6 international consultants
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first half of the NDP Implementation
implementation of NDP1 over its remaining period
2015/16-2019/20 (NDP2)
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The MTR comprises six themes:
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Crosscutting studies
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Results: Trends in NDP growth indicators
Development Indicator NDP Baseline 2008/09 Vision Baseline 2010 Actual 2010/11 Actual 2011/12 NDP Target 2011/12 NDP Target 2014/15 Vision Target 2040 GDP growth (% pa) 6.2 N/S 6.3 3.4 7.0 7.5 N/S GDP at market prices (UGX ) 29,972 N/S 39,051 49,087 46,934 72,094 N/S Per capita income (US$) - market prices 506 506 485 487 667 837 9,500 % of people below the poverty line 28.5 24.5 N/A N/A 27.4 24.4 5.0 Population growth rate (%) N/S 3.2 N/A N/A N/S N/S 2.4 Income distribution (Gini coefficient) N/S 0.43 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0.32 Export proportion of GDP (%) 7.5 N/S 10.8 16.1 N/S N/S N/S US$ labour productivity per worker - agriculture N/S 390 N/A N/A N/S N/S 6,790
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Results : Trends in NDP growth
indicators
Development Indicator NDP Baseline 2008/09 Vision Baseline 2010 Actual 2010/11 Actual 2011/12 NDP Target 2011/12 NDP Target 2014/15 Vision Target 2040 Population growth rate (%) N/S 3.2 3.2 3.2 N/S N/S 2.4 Income distribution (Gini coefficient) N/S 0.43 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0.32 Export proportion of GDP (%) 7.5 N/S 10.8 16.1 N/S N/S N/S US$ labour productivity per worker - agriculture N/S 390 N/A N/A N/S N/S 6,790 US$ labour productivity per worker – industry N/S 3,550 N/A N/A N/S N/S 24,820 US$ labour productivity per worker – services N/S 1,830 N/A N/A N/S N/S 25,513 US$ labour productivity per worker – total N/S 1,017 N/A N/A N/S N/S 19,770 Gross capital formation as %
N/S 24.1 N/A N/A N/S N/S 30 Savings as % of GDP N/S 14.5 N/A N/A N/S N/S 35 8
Employment
Development Indicator NDP Baseline 2008/09 Vision Baseline 2010 Actual 2010/11 Actual 2011/12 NDP Target 2011/12 NDP Target 2014/15 Vision Target 2040 Composition of GDP (%) – Agriculture 23.0 22.4 24.0 24.9 22.2 21.4 10 Composition of GDP (%) – Industry 24.6 26.4 26.9 27.7 24.3 24.0 31 Composition of GDP (%) – Services 52.4 51.2 49.1 47.4 53.5 54.6 58 Labour force in agriculture (%) 73.3 65.6 N/A N/A 71.4 69.3 31 Labour force in industry (%) 4.2 7.6 N/A N/A 4.7 5.4 26 Labour force in services (%) 22.5 26.8 N/A N/A 23.9 25.3 43 Labour force employed (%) 70.9 70.9 75.4 N/A 73.1 78.2 94 Number of manufacturing jobs N/S N/S 13,424 16,725 N/S N/S N/S
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Socio-economic transformation
Development Indicator NDP Baseline 2008/09 Vision Baseline 2010 Actual 2010/11 Actual 2011/12 NDP Target 2011/12 NDP Target 2014/15 Vision Target 2040 National skills gap N/S N/S N/S N/S N/S N/S N/S Literacy level (%) 73.6 73 73.2 74.6 76.9 82.2 95 Life expectance at birth (years) 50.4 51.5 54.1 54.5 51.3 52.4 85 Human development index 0.514 N/S 0.446 0.422 0.531 0.572 N/S World competitiveness index ranking 108/130 N/S 121/130 121/139 100/130 85/130 N/S Doing business survey ranking 112/183 N/S 123/183 123/183 104/183 82/183 N/S Population in urban areas (%) 12 13 13.0 14.7 12 20 60
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Trends in NDP income and equity indicators
Development Indicator NDP Baseline 2008/09 Vision Baseline 2010 Actual 2010/11 Actual 2011/12 NDP Target 2011/12 NDP Target 2014/15 Vision Target 2040 Per capita income (US$) 506 506 485 487 667 837 9,500 % of population below the poverty line 28.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 27.4 24.4 5.0 Global gender gap ranking 43/130 N/S N/A 29/135 N/S N/S N/S Gender development index N/S 0.51 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0.9 Income distribution (Gini coefficient) N/S 0.43 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0.32
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Availability and quality of gainful employment
Increased from 70.9% in 2008/09 to 75.4% by 2010/11 (marginally in excess of the NDP target of 75.3% for 2011/12), but this takes no account of any changes to the levels of under-employment.
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Stock and quality of economic infrastructure
Trends in NDP infrastructure indicators
Development Indicator NDP Baseline 2008/09 Vision Baseline 2010 Actual 2010/11 Actual 2011/12 NDP Target 2011/12 NDP Target 2014/15
Vision Target 2040
% of standard paved roads to total network 4 4 16.3 15.8 N/S 5.3
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% of cargo freight
freight 3.5 3.5 9 10 N/S 17.8
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% of accessing power from national grid 11 11 12 10 N/S 20
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Electricity consumption (kWh per capita) 69.5 75 75 77.8 N/S 674
3,668
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Trends in NDP social service delivery indicators
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Development Indicator NDP Baseline 2008/09 Vision Baseline 2010 Actual 2010/11 Actual 2011/12 NDP Target 2011/12 NDP Target 2014/15 Vision Target 2040 DPT 3 pentavalent vaccine coverage 85 N/S 76 / 91 90 / 60 88 (MoH) 87 N/S Proportion of qualified workers 56 N/S 56 58 60 (MoH) 85 N/S HCs without medicine stock-outs 26 N/S 43 49 / 70 60 (MoH) 65 N/S % deliveries in health facilities 34 N/S 39 40 41 (MoH) 40 N/S OPD utilisation 0.8 N/S 0.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.2 1.0 (MoH) 1.5 N/S Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births 76 63 N/A 54 N/S 41 4 Contraceptive prevalence rate (%) 24 N/S N/A N/A N/S 50 N/S Under 5 mortality rate per 1,000 137 96 N/A 90 114 60 8 Maternal mortality rate per 1,000 live births 435 438 437 438
N/A
131 15 Child stunting as % of under 5s N/S 33 N/A N/A N/S N/S Net enrolment rate primary (%) 93.2 N/S 97.5 95.5 95.0 96.4 N/S
Trends in NDP social service delivery indicators
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Development Indicator NDP Baseline 2008/09 Vision Baseline 2010 Actual 2010/11 Actual 2011/12 NDP Target 2011/12 NDP Target 2014/15 Vision Target 2040
Net enrolment rate secondary (%) 23.5 N/S 25 23.2 28 35 N/S Net completion in secondary (%)
35.0 N/S 41.1 N/A N/S N/S N/S Pupil - teacher ratio in primary 53 N/S 47 53 47 43 N/S Pupil classroom ratio in primary 72 N/S 58 58 66 61 N/S
Student – teacher ratio in secondary 19 N/S 19 N/A N/S N/S N/S Student – classroom ratio in secondary
38 N/S 45 45 N/S N/S N/S BTVET enrolment (thousand) 30 N/S 39 56 250 390 N/S Water consumption (m3 per capita) N/S 26 N/A N/A N/S N/S 600 % access to safe piped water N/S 15 N/A N/A N/S N/S 100 Rural water coverage 66 N/S 65.8 64 (MoWE) 64 (MoWE) 77 N/S Urban water coverage 60 N/S 67 69 (MoWE) 68 (MoWE) 100 N/S Sanitation coverage 62 N/S 68 69.6 (MoWE) 73 (MoWE) 77 / 80 N/S
Science, Techn, innovation & ICT to enhance competitiveness
Trends in NDP science, technology, innovation and ICT indicators
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Development Indicator NDP Baseline 2008/09 Vision Baseline 2010 Actual 2010/11 Actual 2011/12 NDP Target 2011/12 NDP Target 2014/15 Vision Target 2040 Ratio of national budget allocated to STI and ICT 0.3 N/S N/A N/A N/S 0.6 N/S Ratio of S&T to Arts graduates 1:5 N/S N/A 1:5 N/S 1:3 N/S Level of ICT deepening (million) N/S N/S 14.6 17.2 N/S N/S N/S % urban centres with public internet access N/S N/S 36 N/A N/S N/S N/S Manufactured exports as % of total exports 4.2 4.2 4.4 6 N/S 12 50 ICT goods and services as % of exports N/S N/A N/A N/S N/S 40 Technology achievement index N/S 0.24 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0.5 Public expenditure on R&D as % of GDP N/S 0.1 N/A N/A N/S N/S 2.5 Innovation -patents registered per annum N/S 3 N/A N/A N/S N/S 6,000
Trends in NDP human capital development indicators
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Development Indicator NDP Baseli ne 2008/ 09 Vision Baseli ne 2010 Actual 2010/ 11 Actual 2011/ 12 NDP Target 2011/ 12 NDP Target 2014/ 15 Vision Target 2040 Life expectance at birth (years) 50.4 51.5 54.1 54.5 51.3 52.4 85 Literacy rate (%) 73.6 73 73.2 73.3 76.9 82.2 95
Good Governance, Defence and Security
index (CPI) has been oscillating between 2.4 and 2.9 during the last five years.
2.6. However the country’s performance worsened in 2011 (2.4) before it improved slightly in 2012 to 2.9. The Vision 2040 target is 7.1 and there is need for greater efforts to move there.
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Sustainable population and use of natural resources / the environment
be high at 34%; with a contraceptive prevalence rate of 30%; and with only 58% of birth attended to by a skilled professional
to 52.7 years in 2012; with maternal mortality ratio increasing from 430 in 2008 to 438 in 2011; with the rate of decline of infant mortality slowing down since 2005;
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Sustainable population and use of natural resources / the environment
urbanisation process is taking place in a haphazard manner, with no control and regulation
every year with 34% lost in private forests and 12% in the protected forests
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Sustainable population and use of natural resources / the environment
representing 4.7% of the Uganda land area has been lost since 1994.
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Comparisons of 5 year GoU on-budget sector allocations for MoFPED MTEF and NDP MTEF
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Comparisons of relative importance of
years
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Comparisons of on-budget planned and actual financial releases by sector
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Comparisons of percentage allocation of funding to broad sector clusters
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Private Sector, Financial Services Sector and Civil Society) are weak and innovations are required to fast track building of their capacity to deliver the NDP/Vision Goals &
state formation process i.e private sector founded on politics (colonialism & racism, Ugandanization of economy) compared with
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sector development – i.e. strategies to develop indigenous road construction sector are lacking
provide affordable medium & long term financing to bolster strategic factor driven growth E.g Agric, Infrastructure, Education, Health, etc. Financial Services Sector greatly depends on Govt bonds which kills incentive to support lending to private sector.
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renders their enforcement untenable
various institutions
execution, innovation & effectiveness e.g IGG, KCCA, Makerere, MAAIF , etc
not accountable to anyone and represent their own interests more than that of their beneficiaries
being competitive – over-regulated, poor culture of listenership, high illiteracy rates, low civic competence
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theme and objective indicators has generally been disappointing
results framework needs improvement
importance of equitable development around Uganda, but little recognition of this in the results framework
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accountability for results, corruption and mind sets are still major constraints to national development
seriously constrained by limited access to finance and land disputes
piece-meal way and many potential synergies and intra-sector efficiency gains remain untapped
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remains huge potential for streamlining the strategic direction for national development in Uganda and there have been some steps in the right direction
development are not enough to achieve many of the NDP targets
financial allocations in the NDP and the budgets.
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releases and budget appropriations across sectors
NDP priorities and projects that appear in the Public Investment Plan
proportion of development spending, leaving less for the delivery of services
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track to achieve its key macro-economic
policy instruments in mid-2011 interest rates reached 23% by November 2011. This policy was very successful in adjusting inflationary expectations and restoring macro-economic stability
last 3 years has not generally supported growth
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for much of the period
budget process has not yet been effectively integrated with the NDP
economic modelling frameworks used by NPA, the MOFPED and Bank of Uganda
systems are not closely aligned with the NDP
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integration of NDP priorities into the annual PIP and SIPs process has constrained NDP Implementation
as the highest priority projects in the annual PIP and SIP processes
engaged to assess the relative importance of proposed investment projects
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in relation to NDP expectations and its performance is still largely driven by climatic conditions
easier and in some instances costs have increased.
actions being undertaken to unlock the binding constraints to growth.
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duration of NDP1.
slow growth and slow progress on policy reforms.
growth and development is challenge to domestic resource mobilisation.
development
innovative financing mechanisms has been slower than expected.
despite the slowdown in growth.
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, “Growth, Employment, and Socio-Economic Transformation” is relevant to the Ugandan context, and is in line with the country’s Constitution, Vision 2040, and NRM Manifesto
Analogy” has proven to be helpful in terms of prioritisation
primary growth sectors, complementary sectors, social services and enabling sectors for socio-economic transformation.
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mixed- In many cases, the SIPs are more aligned to the annual National Budget Framework Paper outcome statements than to the NDP objectives. SIPs are critical for alignment of sector BFPs and budgets to NDP
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and regulating the banking sector and pension reforms, and relatively good progress in several other areas such as controlling inflation, managing a market exchange rate and harmonising capital market policies.
areas such as expanding the taxation base, streamlining tax exemptions and ensuring allocative and technical efficiency in public spending.
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NDP has not been consciously implemented in a coordinated manner
capacity of the state to deliver an ambitious plan of the NDP’s nature, given severe weaknesses in service delivery, as well as the scale of corruption in Government
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poverty, a significant number of new ‘chronically poor’ have emerged, that are largely not catered for within current systems.
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development assistance has continued to decline during the NDP period, but in nominal terms it has remained constant and for the moment donor financing remains very important in Uganda’s development
allocation of both “on budget” and “off budget” project aid in favour of infrastructure and energy investments in line with the NDP’s aim to broaden Uganda’s development strategy to structural transformation to raise growth and living standards
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programmes are building the capacity required for effective NDP implementation
has been difficult for the NDP to be a focus for progress on the wider agenda for improving aid effectiveness
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Progress on the core projects
Core Project State Of Progress Water for Production 1. Construction
five irrigation systems The project is on-track: Doho, Agoro, Mubuku rice irrigation schemes have been rehabilitated. For Olweny rice irrigation scheme and Kiige, work is in progress. Coordination between the Ministry of Water and Environment and Ministry of Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries is very critical for the success of these initiatives. Oil and Gas
There is progress on this project- procurement process to identify the lead investor is on going, bids solicitation is expected to end in April 2014 and an Investor to be on board in June 2014. Project is expected to be finalised within the period of NDPII.
distribution pipeline For the pipeline for refined product, the Project is experiencing very slow progress -procurement for studies at initial stages. For crude oil pipeline development, the commercialization plan (Memorandum of Understanding, MOU) between GOU and upstream companies was signed in 5th February 2014.
Progress on the core projects Cont’d
Core Project State Of Progress Energy Infrastructure
HEP project (600MW) Work has commenced. Contractor is on site but financial closure not yet
HEP project Memorandum with construction company has been signed; feasibility study underway.
HEP Project (140MW Work has commenced. Contractor on site but financial closure not yet
Progress on the core projects
Core Project State Of Progress Transport Infrastructure
lines Rehabilitation of Malaba-Kampala and Tororo-Gulu have been rehabilitated, but Kasese-Kampala remains undone
rail from Malaba to Kampala, Malaba- Nimule, Kampala- Kasese-Mirama Hills Preliminary engineering studies underway, cooperation agreements with Heads of state have been signed, project expected to be completed by 2018, solicitation of funding underway.
and safety for Greater Metropolitan Kampala Feasibility study for flyover from Queensway to Jinja Road roundabout
lack of integration of transport modes; lack of coordination mechanisms between KCCA and neighbouring districts of Wakiso and Mukono in planning and joint implementation of projects.
lake Victoria Slow progress Mining
Memorandum of Understanding has been signed, mining lease issued and preliminary works have begun.
No tangible progress. Fragmentation of surface rights has hampered implementation of the project. There is need to manage on-going small
Progress on the core projects
Core Project State Of Progress Others 13. National non-formal skills development programme Strategic plan for the BTVET program has been developed and incorporates the non-formal training project. Seed fund provided by Government for the “Skilling Uganda Programme” and the institutional framework for implementation is being worked on. 14. Construction and development of 4 regional science parks and technology incubation centres (SPTIC) No tangible progress.
(IT) business parks construction project No progress
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NDP, including linking more closely outcomes and outputs used by the financial management systems such as the Output Based Tool (OBT) to the NDP
(SWGs)
approve sector and district work-plans, BFPs, and Policy Statements
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and established to strengthen generation of policy and strategic direction for the country for
development, governance and global positioning.
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macro-economic framework requires strategic coordination of fiscal and monetary policy objectives to achieve both growth and macroeconomic stability
– Expected higher levels of spending to support NDP implementation – Broaden tax base to bring more informal sector businesses into the tax net – More explicitly aligning resources to NDP implementation
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underlying factors regarding access and high communication and transport costs.
perceived to be punitive due to the narrow tax base
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ways that improve its efficiency and effectiveness by accelerating implementation
sectors and ministries i.e:
– Reduce unproductive functions within government; – Reduce conflicting and overlapping mandates; and – Strengthen coordination
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that those functions that have been decentralised and cannot be served by districts are lifted either to the regional level or back to central government.
unconditional grants to include the management functions of planning, supervision and monitoring of service delivery
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management
development assistance
take care of emerging development assistance issues
commitments
both sides
the development partnership
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– Transformation of agriculture – Development of small and medium sized enterprises – Development of transport and energy infrastructure – Skills development – greater regional integration – alignment of planning, budgetary, policy and legal and implementation frameworks to the NDP and Vision 2040 – fast tracking of the mapping, registration and strengthening
– improving access to family planning; and improved urban planning
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