ENTATION to ev evaluation tion societ ety y ON ON : : PRE - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ENTATION to ev evaluation tion societ ety y ON ON : : PRE RESENTATION NDP DP MI MID-TERM ERM REVIEW EW FINDI DINGS NGS AND D RECO COMME MMENDATION DATIONS S BY: dhizaala aala. . S. S. moses es Head monitoring and evaluation, npa 1

THE NDP MID-TERM REVIEW WAS ENTIRELY SUPPORTED BY UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME 2

Background • The NDP Mid-Term Review (MTR) is a requirement under the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework adopted by Government in 2007; and under the NDP itself • The exercise started in March 2013 and was completed in December 2013 • The MTR was undertaken by a consortium of two firms: Delta & Reev Consult with 6 local & 6 international consultants 3

NDP MTR Objectives • Review the progress made in the first half of the NDP Implementation • Make recommendations to improve implementation of NDP1 over its remaining period • Inform preparation of the next NDP 2015/16-2019/20 (NDP2) 4

The NDP MTR Themes The MTR comprises six themes: • Policy and Strategic Direction • Institutional Framework • Results Framework • Political Economy • Economic Management • Development partnership 5

C rosscutting studies undertaken to inform MTR • Social Protection • Children • Environment • Gender • Human Rights • Democracy & Political Governance 6

Results: Trends in NDP growth indicators Development Indicator NDP Vision Actual Actual NDP Target NDP Target Vision Target Baseline Baseline 2010/11 2011/12 2011/12 2014/15 2040 2008/09 2010 GDP growth (% pa) 6.2 N/S 6.3 3.4 7.0 7.5 N/S GDP at market prices (UGX ) 29,972 N/S 39,051 49,087 46,934 72,094 N/S Per capita income (US$) - 506 506 485 487 667 837 9,500 market prices % of people below the 28.5 24.5 N/A N/A 27.4 24.4 5.0 poverty line Population growth rate (%) N/S 3.2 N/A N/A N/S N/S 2.4 Income distribution (Gini N/S 0.43 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0.32 coefficient) Export proportion of GDP (%) 7.5 N/S 10.8 16.1 N/S N/S N/S US$ labour productivity per N/S 390 N/A N/A N/S N/S 6,790 worker - agriculture 7

Results : Trends in NDP growth indicators Development Indicator NDP Vision Actual Actual NDP Target NDP Target Vision Baseline Baseline 2010/11 2011/12 2011/12 2014/15 Target 2040 2008/09 2010 Population growth rate (%) N/S 3.2 3.2 3.2 N/S N/S 2.4 Income distribution (Gini N/S 0.43 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0.32 coefficient) Export proportion of GDP (%) 7.5 N/S 10.8 16.1 N/S N/S N/S US$ labour productivity per N/S 390 N/A N/A N/S N/S 6,790 worker - agriculture US$ labour productivity per N/S 3,550 N/A N/A N/S N/S 24,820 worker – industry US$ labour productivity per N/S 1,830 N/A N/A N/S N/S 25,513 worker – services US$ labour productivity per N/S 1,017 N/A N/A N/S N/S 19,770 worker – total Gross capital formation as % N/S 24.1 N/A N/A N/S N/S 30 of GDP Savings as % of GDP N/S 14.5 N/A N/A N/S N/S 35 8

Employment Development NDP Vision Actual Actual NDP NDP Vision Indicator Baseline Baseline 2010/11 2011/12 Target Target Target 2008/09 2010 2011/12 2014/15 2040 Composition of GDP 23.0 22.4 24.0 24.9 22.2 21.4 10 (%) – Agriculture Composition of GDP 24.6 26.4 26.9 27.7 24.3 24.0 31 (%) – Industry Composition of GDP 52.4 51.2 49.1 47.4 53.5 54.6 58 (%) – Services Labour force in 73.3 65.6 N/A N/A 71.4 69.3 31 agriculture (%) Labour force in 4.2 7.6 N/A N/A 4.7 5.4 26 industry (%) Labour force in 22.5 26.8 N/A N/A 23.9 25.3 43 services (%) Labour force 70.9 70.9 75.4 N/A 73.1 78.2 94 employed (%) Number of N/S N/S 13,424 16,725 N/S N/S N/S manufacturing jobs 9

Socio-economic transformation Development NDP Vision Actual Actual NDP NDP Vision Indicator Baseline Baseline 2010/11 2011/12 Target Target Target 2008/09 2010 2011/12 2014/15 2040 National skills gap N/S N/S N/S N/S N/S N/S N/S Literacy level (%) 73.6 73 73.2 74.6 76.9 82.2 95 Life expectance at 50.4 51.5 54.1 54.5 51.3 52.4 85 birth (years) Human development 0.514 N/S 0.446 0.422 0.531 0.572 N/S index World 108/130 N/S 121/130 121/139 100/130 85/130 N/S competitiveness index ranking Doing business 112/183 N/S 123/183 123/183 104/183 82/183 N/S survey ranking Population in urban 12 13 13.0 14.7 12 20 60 areas (%) 10

Progress on NDP objectives 11

Trends in NDP income and equity indicators Development NDP Vision Actual Actual NDP NDP Vision Indicator Baseline Baseline 2010/11 2011/12 Target Target Target 2008/09 2010 2011/12 2014/15 2040 Per capita income 506 506 485 487 667 837 9,500 (US$) % of population below 28.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 27.4 24.4 5.0 the poverty line Global gender gap 43/130 N/S N/A 29/135 N/S N/S N/S ranking Gender development N/S 0.51 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0.9 index Income distribution N/S 0.43 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0.32 (Gini coefficient) 12

Availability and quality of gainful employment Increased from 70.9% in 2008/09 to 75.4% by 2010/11 (marginally in excess of the NDP target of 75.3% for 2011/12), but this takes no account of any changes to the levels of under-employment. 13

Stock and quality of economic infrastructure Trends in NDP infrastructure indicators Vision Development NDP Vision Actual Actual NDP NDP Target Indicator Baseline Baseline 2010/11 2011/12 Target Target 2040 2008/09 2010 2011/12 2014/15 % of standard 4 4 16.3 15.8 N/S 5.3 80 paved roads to total network 80 % of cargo freight 3.5 3.5 9 10 N/S 17.8 on rail to total freight 80 % of accessing 11 11 12 10 N/S 20 power from national grid Electricity 69.5 75 75 77.8 N/S 674 3,668 consumption (kWh per capita) 14

Access to quality social services Trends in NDP social service delivery indicators Development Indicator NDP Vision Actual Actual NDP Target NDP Target Vision Baseline Baseline 2010/11 2011/12 2011/12 2014/15 Target 2008/09 2010 2040 DPT 3 pentavalent vaccine 85 N/S 76 / 91 90 / 60 88 (MoH) 87 N/S coverage Proportion of qualified 56 N/S 56 58 60 (MoH) 85 N/S workers HCs without medicine 26 N/S 43 49 / 70 60 (MoH) 65 N/S stock-outs % deliveries in health 34 N/S 39 40 41 (MoH) 40 N/S facilities OPD utilisation 0.8 N/S 0.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.2 1.0 (MoH) 1.5 N/S Infant mortality rate per 76 63 N/A 54 N/S 41 4 1,000 live births Contraceptive prevalence 24 N/S N/A N/A N/S 50 N/S rate (%) Under 5 mortality rate per 137 96 N/A 90 114 60 8 1,000 Maternal mortality rate per 435 438 437 438 131 15 N/A 1,000 live births Child stunting as % of under N/S 33 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0 5s Net enrolment rate primary 93.2 N/S 97.5 95.5 95.0 96.4 N/S 15 (%)

Access to quality social services Trends in NDP social service delivery indicators Development Indicator NDP Baseline Vision Actual Actual NDP Target NDP Target Vision 2008/09 Baseline 2010/11 2011/12 2011/12 2014/15 Target 2040 2010 Net enrolment rate 23.5 N/S 25 23.2 28 35 N/S secondary (%) Net completion in 35.0 N/S 41.1 N/A N/S N/S N/S secondary (%) 53 N/S 47 53 47 43 N/S Pupil - teacher ratio in primary Pupil classroom ratio in 72 N/S 58 58 66 61 N/S primary Student – teacher ratio in 19 N/S 19 N/A N/S N/S N/S secondary Student – classroom ratio in 38 N/S 45 45 N/S N/S N/S secondary BTVET enrolment 30 N/S 39 56 250 390 N/S (thousand) Water consumption (m3 per N/S 26 N/A N/A N/S N/S 600 capita) % access to safe piped N/S 15 N/A N/A N/S N/S 100 water Rural water coverage 66 N/S 65.8 64 (MoWE) 64 (MoWE) 77 N/S Urban water coverage 60 N/S 67 69 (MoWE) 68 (MoWE) 100 N/S 16 Sanitation coverage 62 N/S 68 69.6 (MoWE) 73 (MoWE) 77 / 80 N/S

Science, Techn, innovation & ICT to enhance competitiveness Trends in NDP science, technology, innovation and ICT indicators Development Indicator NDP Vision Actual Actual NDP Target NDP Target Vision Baseline Baseline 2010/11 2011/12 2011/12 2014/15 Target 2040 2008/09 2010 Ratio of national budget 0.3 N/S N/A N/A N/S 0.6 N/S allocated to STI and ICT Ratio of S&T to Arts 1:5 N/S N/A 1:5 N/S 1:3 N/S graduates Level of ICT deepening N/S N/S 14.6 17.2 N/S N/S N/S (million) % urban centres with N/S N/S 36 N/A N/S N/S N/S public internet access Manufactured exports 4.2 4.2 4.4 6 N/S 12 50 as % of total exports ICT goods and services N/S 0 N/A N/A N/S N/S 40 as % of exports Technology achievement N/S 0.24 N/A N/A N/S N/S 0.5 index Public expenditure on N/S 0.1 N/A N/A N/S N/S 2.5 R&D as % of GDP Innovation -patents N/S 3 N/A N/A N/S N/S 6,000 17 registered per annum

Human Capital Development Trends in NDP human capital development indicators NDP Vision Actual Actual NDP NDP Vision Baseli Baseli 2010/ 2011/ Target Target Target Development ne ne 11 12 2011/ 2014/ 2040 Indicator 2008/ 2010 12 15 09 Life expectance 50.4 51.5 54.1 54.5 51.3 52.4 85 at birth (years) Literacy rate (%) 73.6 73 73.2 73.3 76.9 82.2 95 18