Energy Use and Trends in the U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sector - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Energy Use and Trends in the U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sector - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Energy Use and Trends in the U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sector Resources for the Future Nicholas Chase, U.S. Energy Information Administration Transportation Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis October 2012 | Washington, DC U.S. Energy

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www.eia.gov

U.S. Energy Information Administration

Independent Statistics & Analysis

Resources for the Future Nicholas Chase, U.S. Energy Information Administration Transportation Energy Consumption and Efficiency Analysis October 2012 | Washington, DC

Energy Use and Trends in the U.S. Heavy-Duty Vehicle Sector

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Overview

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  • Heavy-duty energy demand in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012
  • Drivers of energy demand
  • Heavy-duty natural gas vehicles

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

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Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case

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  • Projects energy demand by heavy-duty vehicles by the

determinants of energy demand

– Vehicle miles travelled (industrial output) – Fuel economy – Fuel type

  • Model structure:

– Three size classes (class 3, classes 4 through 6, classes 7 and 8) – Four vehicle fuel types (diesel, gasoline, CNG, LPG) – Fleet and non-fleet vehicles – Vintages up to 34+

  • For vehicle technology, application of HD National Program, and

fuel economy determination, model expands to 13 size classes

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

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5 10 15 20 25 30 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Heavy-duty vehicle energy use represents the second largest and fastest growing share of transportation energy demand

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Quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case Excludes pipeline, lubricants, and military

Rail Air Projections History Heavy-duty vehicles Light-duty vehicles Marine 2010 5% 64% 2% 10% 19% 59% 23% 10% 5% 2%

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

Commercial light-duty vehicles

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2 4 6 8 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Heavy-duty vehicle energy consumption is met almost entirely by diesel fuel

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Quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case

Motor Gasoline Projections History Natural Gas Diesel 2010 92% 8% 6% 92%

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

2%

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Key drivers of heavy-duty vehicle energy demand

6 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case *Excludes buses

Heavy-duty vehicles*

2010 2035 Growth

(2010-2035)

Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu)

4.8 5.8 21 %

Manufacturing output (billion 2005 dollars)

4,260 6,285 48 %

Vehicle miles travelled (billion miles)

233.8 345.2 48 %

Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg)

7.1 8.6 21 %

Number of vehicles in stock (million)

8.9 12.5 40 %

Heavy heavy-duty vehicles (class 7-8) Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu)

4.0 4.7 18 %

Vehicle miles travelled (billion miles)

174.7 253.3 45 %

Efficiency of new vehicles (mpg)

5.8 7.5 29 %

Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg)

6.1 7.5 23 %

Number of vehicles in stock (millions)

5.0 6.6 32 %

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

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Key drivers of heavy-duty vehicle energy demand (continued)

7 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case

2010 2035 Growth

(2010-2035)

Medium heavy-duty vehicles (class 4-6) Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu)

0.5 0.8 60 %

Vehicle miles travelled (billion miles)

28.9 53.9 87 %

Efficiency of new vehicles (mpg)

8.4 9.3 11 %

Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg)

8.2 9.2 12 %

Number of vehicles (million)

1.9 3.3 74 %

Light medium heavy-duty vehicles (class 3) Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu)

0.3 0.3

  • Vehicle miles travelled (billion miles)

30.2 38.1 26 %

Efficiency of new vehicles (mpg)

11.7 15.3 31%

Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg)

12.0 15.2 27 %

Number of vehicles in stock (millions)

2.0 2.6 30 %

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

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Key drivers of heavy-duty vehicle energy demand—the case of the 2Bs

8 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Reference case

2010 2035 Growth

(2010-2035)

Commercial light-duty vehicles (class 2b) Energy consumption (quadrillion Btu)

0.5 0.6 11 %

Vehicle miles travelled (billion miles)

64 92 44 %

Efficiency of new vehicles (mpg)

15.7 19.1 22%

Efficiency of vehicle stock (mpg)

14.4 19.0 32 %

Number of vehicles (million)

7.3 8.5 16 %

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

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  • Natural gas fuel price for in both liquefied and compressed form,

by retail or fleet operation

Difference in diesel and natural gas fuel prices offer opportunities for HDVs

1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 diesel LNG retail LNG fleet CNG retail CNG fleet projection

Source: AEO2012, HDV Reference case

(2010$/dge)

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

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  • Natural gas vehicle tank sized

according to vehicle miles travelled

  • Natural gas vehicle incremental

cost consists of engine + tank cost:

– Class 3: $9,750 to $37,555 – Class 4 to 6: $34,150 to $69,250 – Class 7 to 8: $49,075 to $86,125 VMT Group Annual miles Incremental Cost ($) Class 3 Class 4-6 Class 7-8

1 12,554 9,750 34,150 49,075 2 27,855 9,750 34,150 49,075 3 46,021 9,750 40,000 55,250 4 62,276 12,008 44,500 60,000 5 85,000 15,872 54,400 70,450 6 110,000 20,124 60,250 76,625 7 125,000 22,675 69,250 86,125 8 147,500 26,501 69,250 86,125 9 167,500 29,902 69,250 86,125 10 187,500 33,303 69,250 86,125 11 212,500 37,555 69,250 86,125

AEO2012 HD NGV Potential case

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

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5 10 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Heavy-duty vehicle natural gas consumption grows substantially in the HD NGV case

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Quadrillion Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 HD NGV case

Motor Gasoline Projections History Natural Gas Diesel 2010 92% 8% 5% 64%

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

31%

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Major takeaways

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  • Heavy-duty vehicle energy demand is the second largest in the

transportation sector

  • Heavy-duty vehicle energy demand is the fastest growing mode in

transportation

  • HD National Program Phase I projected to increase fuel efficiency
  • f vehicles but vehicle miles travelled grows more rapidly
  • Future HD National Program Phase II would further reduce energy

demand

  • Natural gas vehicles have favorable fuel economics but

infrastructure is a major uncertainty

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012

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For more information

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U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual

Nicholas Chase, Resources for the Future Washington, D.C., October 2012