Energy Resources Are we running out of fossil fuels? H-Holger - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Energy Resources Are we running out of fossil fuels?

H-Holger Rogner

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm

15 June 2017 – ICTP, Trieste, Italy

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Resources in a nutshell

• Occurrence of hydrocarbons and fissile materials in the earth’s

crust are plentiful

• There is enough carbon in the ground to fuel global warming
• Above ground investments unlock below ground resources
• Exploration
• Production capacity (incl. upgrading)
• RD&D in innovative technology
• Renewable energy flows are gigantic
• RD&D and investment required for the commercialization of

technologies tapping renewable energy flows

• Resources per se pose no inherent limitation to meeting even

rapidly growing future global energy need as long as timely upstream and/or technology investment is forthcoming

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• The quantity of carbon occurrences in the Earth’s crust is but
• ne consideration = neutral stuff
• Reserve assessments are the futile effort of estimating the

economic portion of an unknown total (M. Adelman)

• Reserves are “created” by a mutual interdependence of
• Demand and markets
• Investment and technology (determine production capacity)
• RD&D and innovation (pushing frontier)
• Environmental and social constraints (policy)
• In many cases the “low-hanging” fruit has already been

harvested

Resources are not – they become1)

1) E. Zimmermann

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Increasing degree of geological assurance Increasing degree of economic feasibility

Resource classification: The McKelvey Box

Subeconomic Economic Not economic

Reserves

Resources Unconventional and low-grade

• ccurrences

Inferred

Measured Indicated Demonstrated Identified Reserves Hypothetical Speculative Probability range (or) Undiscovered Resources

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• The “peak oil (gas, coal, uranium) debate” is a matter of

definitions (boundaries):

• Conventional versus unconventional occurrences
• Minimum concentration
• Technology and innovation
• Economics (full costs including externalities versus

alternatives) and prices

• Energy security
• Environment policy, esp. w.r.t. climate change
• Social preferences (demand)

Comments on the “peak” debates

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Oil reserve discoveries & production

• 10

10 20 30 40 50 60

• 20

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Gbbl per year

Discovery Production

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Peak oil or undulating plateau?

20

40

60 80

100

120 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Million barrels per day (Mbbl/d) Conventional oil Past production ∑ 1.15 trillion barrels Conventional oil URR ∑ 2.3 trillion barrels Unconventional oil NGLs Conventional oil URR ∑ 3 trillion barrels

Undulating plateau

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Oil based liquid fuel supply potentials and production costs

20 60 40 80 100

• 8 000
• 4 000

4 000 8 000 12 000 16 000 20 000 24 000 28 000 32 000 36 000

Production cost (2005 $ per bbl)

Resources (EJ)

Conventional Oil EOR Tar sands and heavy oil Oil shale

Already produced Yet to be produced

Adapted from Farrell, 2008.

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Oil supply cost curves

10 20 30 40 50 60 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000

Marginal extraction cost ($/GJ) Cumulative oil extraction (EJ)

2 4 6 8 10 5 000 10 000 GEA GEA update/SSP5 SSP2

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Shale gas impact on natural gas prices

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Reserves Resources Additional

• ccurrences

[Gtoe] [Gt C] [Gtoe] [Gt C] [Gtoe] [Gtoe] [Gtoe] Conventional oil 176 152.28 4.4 3.80 241 147 Unconventional oil 16 13.87 0.45 0.39 134 502 > 1 000 Conventional gas 93 59.0 2.6 1.66 168 254 Unconventional gas 5 3.2 0.52 0.33 1 603 2 912 >24 000 Coal 188 202.8 3.7 3.95 413 10 390 Total FOSSIL 477 431 11.6 10.1 2 558 14 204 Historical production through 2016 Production 2016

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Fossil reserves, carbon contents & emission budget

Source: Adapted from Rogner (2012) and Bauer et.al (2015)

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 Non-energy CO2 emissions Unconventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional gas Conventional oil Coal Global CO2 emission budget for < 2oC at 66% probability

~900 Gt left until 2100

Gt CO2

Cumulative CO2 emissions 1750 - 2014 Remaining fossil fuel reserves

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Fossil resources, carbon contents & emission budget

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Cummulative 1750 to 2014 Reserves Resources Unconventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional gas Conventional oil Coal Global CO2 emission budget for < 2oC at 66% probability

Gt CO2

Source: Adapted from Rogner (2012) and Bauer et.al (2015)

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Cumulative CO2 emissions with the goal of keeping global average temperature rise below

1 890 Gt CO2 1 300 Gt CO2 1 890 Gt CO2 1000 As at 2011 1 890 Gt CO2 767 553 1 890 Gt CO2 467 553 1 890 Gt CO2 561 739 1 890 Gt CO2 739 As at 2025 As at 2030

2oC with >50% probability 2oC with >66% probability

261 1 890 Gt CO2 550 As at 2011 1 890 Gt CO2 553 1 890 Gt CO2 553 As at 2025 As at 2030

Exceedance: 189 GT CO2

1.5oC with >50% probability by 2100

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Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)

Socio-economic challenges for adaptation Socio-economic challenges for mitigation

SSP 1: Sustainability Taking the green road SSP 3: Regional rivalry A rocky road SSP 4: Inequality A road divided SSP 5: Rapid Growth Taking the highway SSP 2: Middle of the Road

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SSPs and Fossil Resources

Source: Bauer et.al, 2015

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SSPs and Fossil Resources

Source: Bauer et.al, 2015

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Supply cost curves

5 10 15 20 25 30 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Production costs, $/GJ EJ

2050 supply cost curve 2010 supply cost curve