ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL STUDIES: WHAT, WHY, HOW, AND SO WHAT? - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL STUDIES: WHAT, WHY, HOW, AND SO WHAT?

►January 17, 2018

www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

OVERVIEW

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What are the purposes of potential studies? How does the purpose influence the methods, data and level of analysis? What are the basic methods to estimate potential? What are some important methodological considerations? How are potential studies used at the policy level? How are potential studies used at the program level?

Why? How? So What? What?

What is a potential study? What are the different types of EE potential?

www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

A “WHY AND “HOW” RESOURCE

►Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency

Potential Studies, 2007*

− Part of the U.S. EPA National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency − Developed as a guide for policy makers and

• thers

− Assists in identifying need, purpose, type of study, data, methods, uses, and contracting guidance

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*https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-08/documents/potential_guide_0.pdf

www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

WHAT?

►Boundaries can be as small

as a neighborhood or as large as an entire region

►May focus solely on

electricity, natural gas, or another fuel or look at all energy consumption

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“A potential study is a quantitative analysis of the amount of energy savings that either exists, is cost-effective, or could be realized through the implementation of energy efficiency programs and policies.”

►Can consider only efficiency, or broader distributed

energy resources

►Timeframes can be short (3 yrs.) or long (10-20

yrs.)

www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

WHAT: TYPES OF EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL

►Four different types of efficiency potential analysis

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Technical

• All technologically

feasible efficiency, disregarding all non-engineering constraints

Economic

• Portion of

Technical Potential that is cost- effective assuming no market barriers

Achievable

• Maximum level of

cost-effective potential recognizing market barriers

Program

• Level of savings

given specific program funding levels and designs, or other constraints

www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

KEY STEPS

Identify

• bjective and

audience Select potential types(s) to analyze Determine level

• f detail and data

requirements Select and define the methodology Apply the results

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www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

KEY STEPS

Identify

• bjective and

audience Select potential types(s) to analyze Determine level

• f detail and data

requirements Select and define the methodology Apply the results

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www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

WHY: COMMON REASONS TO DO POTENTIAL STUDIES

►Making the case for efficiency ►Establishing energy efficiency portfolio funding levels

and goals, and informing broad policy decisions

►Allocating focus to different program and resource

areas (e.g., codes, standards, DSM, DR, CHP, RE)

►Assessing alternatives to supply-side resources ►Program design support and analysis ►Reassessing energy efficiency opportunities as

conditions change and impacts on programs/policies

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www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

KEY STEPS

Identify

• bjective and

audience Select potential types(s) to analyze Determine level

• f detail and data

requirements Select and define the methodology Apply the results

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www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

HOW: CONSIDERATION FOR CONDUCTING POTENTIAL STUDIES

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www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

HOW: THE PURPOSE OF THE STUDY SHOULD DRIVE THE METHODS

• Focus on overall opportunities and economics, don’t

sweat the details

Making the case for efficiency, informing broad policy decisions

• Focus on overall opportunities and economics of

maximum achievable potential

• Less detailed studies that don’t require a high level of

granularity may be sufficient

Setting portfolio funding levels and goals

• Need greater detail, disaggregation and precision if

driving time-critical resource planning decisions

• Smaller targeted regions need greater detail and

primary data

Assessing alternatives to specific supply investments

• Focus on markets that matter, don’t worry about

theoretical opportunities

• Greater detail and measure granularity appropriate to

inform specific strategies and design

Supporting program design or policy allocations

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www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

KEY STEPS

Identify

• bjective and

audience Select potential types(s) to analyze Determine level

• f detail and data

requirements Select and define the methodology Apply the results

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www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

HOW: METHODOLOGY

►Potential studies involve the following activities:

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Identify baseline energy consumption forecast Disaggregate baseline forecast into customer and other segments Identify and characterize efficiency measures Analyze measure applicability to markets and calculate potential Analyze cost- effectiveness of measures and/or programs Estimate measure penetrations and program budgets Calculate potential for all efficiency measures (adjust for interactions and mutual exclusivity)

www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

HOW: METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS

►Fully understanding purposes of the study and how it

will be used

►Identifying the overall scope of study – resources (EE,

DR, DG), constraints, etc.

►Selecting a cost-effectiveness test for economic

screening and global assumptions and methods

►Determining need for full-scale study with primary

data collection

− Does level of precision require primary data or can you rely on secondary data? − How granular does the study need to be? – bundled measures and markets?

Beware of False Precision

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www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

KEY STEPS

Identify

• bjective and

audience Select potential types(s) to analyze Determine level

• f detail and

assess data requirements Select and define the methodology Apply the results

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www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

CAVEAT EMPTOR

►In general, potential studies inherently produce

conservative (low) estimates

►Several recent reports and presentations have

addressed this issue such as those from:

− RAP, ACEEE, NRCD, EFG, OEI

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►Examples of limitations include: − Generally model “business as usual” − Measure and strategy limitations tend to focus on current status and knowledge − Everything assessed “on average” − Lack of inclusion of comprehensive benefits

www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What?

IS THIS REALLY “MAXIMUM ACHIEVABLE”?

17 3.24% (2016) 1.30% (2010) 1.67% (2011) 2.07% (2012) 2.34% (2013) 2.76% (2014) 3.00% (2015)

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%

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10 15 20 25 Study Time Period (Years)

Electric Savings Maximum Achievable Potential (% of Sales)

Midwest Northeast South West Median MA 2016 MA (Actuals) Average Annual Savings (% of sales)

THANK YOU

Questions?

►January 17, 2018