ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL STUDIES: WHAT, WHY, HOW, AND SO WHAT? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL STUDIES: WHAT, WHY, HOW, AND SO WHAT? ► January 17, 2018

OVERVIEW What is a potential study? What? What are the different types of EE potential? What are the purposes of potential studies? Why? How does the purpose influence the methods, data and level of analysis? What are the basic methods to estimate potential? How? What are some important methodological considerations? So How are potential studies used at the policy level? What? How are potential studies used at the program level? www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 2

A “WHY AND “HOW” RESOURCE ► Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies, 2007* − Part of the U.S. EPA National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency − Developed as a guide for policy makers and others − Assists in identifying need, purpose, type of study, data, methods, uses, and contracting guidance *https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-08/documents/potential_guide_0.pdf www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 3

WHAT? ► Boundaries can be as small “A potential study is a as a neighborhood or as quantitative analysis of the large as an entire region amount of energy savings that either exists, is cost-effective, or ► May focus solely on could be realized through the electricity, natural gas, or another fuel or look at all implementation of energy energy consumption efficiency programs and policies.” ► Can consider only efficiency, or broader distributed energy resources ► Timeframes can be short (3 yrs.) or long (10-20 yrs.) www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 4

WHAT: TYPES OF EFFICIENCY POTENTIAL ► Four different types of efficiency potential analysis Technical Economic Achievable Program • All technologically • Portion of • Maximum level of • Level of savings feasible efficiency, Technical Potential cost-effective given specific disregarding all that is cost- potential program funding non-engineering effective assuming recognizing levels and constraints no market barriers market barriers designs, or other constraints www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 5

KEY STEPS Apply the results Select and define the methodology Determine level of detail and data requirements Select potential types(s) to analyze Identify objective and audience www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 6

KEY STEPS Apply the results Select and define the methodology Determine level of detail and data requirements Select potential types(s) to analyze Identify objective and audience www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 7

WHY: COMMON REASONS TO DO POTENTIAL STUDIES ► Making the case for efficiency ► Establishing energy efficiency portfolio funding levels and goals, and informing broad policy decisions ► Allocating focus to different program and resource areas ( e.g., codes, standards, DSM, DR, CHP, RE) ► Assessing alternatives to supply-side resources ► Program design support and analysis ► Reassessing energy efficiency opportunities as conditions change and impacts on programs/policies www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 8

KEY STEPS Apply the results Select and define the methodology Determine level of detail and data requirements Select potential types(s) to analyze Identify objective and audience www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 9

HOW: CONSIDERATION FOR CONDUCTING POTENTIAL STUDIES www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 10

HOW: THE PURPOSE OF THE STUDY SHOULD DRIVE THE METHODS Making the case for efficiency, • Focus on overall opportunities and economics, don’t informing broad policy decisions sweat the details • Focus on overall opportunities and economics of Setting portfolio funding levels maximum achievable potential and goals • Less detailed studies that don’t require a high level of granularity may be sufficient • Need greater detail, disaggregation and precision if Assessing alternatives to specific driving time-critical resource planning decisions supply investments • Smaller targeted regions need greater detail and primary data • Focus on markets that matter, don’t worry about theoretical opportunities Supporting program design or • Greater detail and measure granularity appropriate to policy allocations inform specific strategies and design www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 11

KEY STEPS Apply the results Select and define the methodology Determine level of detail and data requirements Select potential types(s) to analyze Identify objective and audience www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 12

HOW: METHODOLOGY ► Potential studies involve the following activities: Disaggregate Analyze measure Identify baseline Identify and baseline forecast applicability to energy characterize into customer markets and consumption efficiency and other calculate forecast measures segments potential Calculate potential Analyze cost- for all efficiency Estimate measure effectiveness of measures (adjust penetrations and measures and/or for interactions and program budgets programs mutual exclusivity) www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 13

HOW: METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS ► Fully understanding purposes of the study and how it will be used ► Identifying the overall scope of study – resources (EE, DR, DG), constraints, etc. ► Selecting a cost-effectiveness test for economic screening and global assumptions and methods ► Determining need for full-scale study with primary data collection − Does level of precision require primary data or can you rely on secondary data? − How granular does the study need to be? – bundled measures and markets? Beware of False Precision www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 14

KEY STEPS Apply the results Select and define the methodology Determine level of detail and assess data Select potential requirements types(s) to analyze Identify objective and audience www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 15

CAVEAT EMPTOR ► In general, potential studies inherently produce conservative (low) estimates ► Several recent reports and presentations have addressed this issue such as those from: − RAP, ACEEE, NRCD, EFG, OEI ► Examples of limitations include: − Generally model “business as usual” − Measure and strategy limitations tend to focus on current status and knowledge − Everything assessed “on average” − Lack of inclusion of comprehensive benefits www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? | 16

IS THIS REALLY “MAXIMUM ACHIEVABLE”? Electric Savings Maximum Achievable Potential (% of Sales) 3.5% 3.24% (2016) Average Annual Savings (% of sales) 3.0% 3.00% (2015) 2.76% (2014) 2.5% 2.34% (2013) 2.07% (2012) 2.0% 1.67% (2011) 1.5% 1.30% (2010) 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% - 5 10 15 20 25 Study Time Period (Years) Midwest Northeast South West Median MA 2016 MA (Actuals) www.ma-eeac.org Energy Efficiency Potential Studies: What, Why, How, and So What? 17

THANK YOU Questions? ► January 17, 2018